October 18th 2017 Global Gdp Ranking

[SMC]

@Nilgiri
Pakistan Gdp is 302 billion dollar at today's currency rate per my calculations.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2017&ey=2022&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=59&pr1.y=3&c=513,564,534&s=NGDP,NGDPD,NGDPPC,NGDPDPC&grp=0&a=

Gdp in national currency / current exchange rate

31862/105.5 = 302 billion dollars

But the percapita decreases because of your increased population. Per imf, your population was only counted to be 197 million but recent census gave us 207 million. So your percapita is 1456 dollars lesser than Bangladesh and India.

When Pakistan's GDP gets rebased, it's likely going above 400 billion, possibly 500 billion. That will likely put Storm Force in the ICU.

 

[AyanRay]

When Pakistan's GDP gets rebased, it's likely going above 400 billion, possibly 500 billion. That will likely put Storm Force in the ICU.

How much % did it increase during the last re-basing? When was it made and what structural changes took place in Pakistan to indicate that some sectors are underreported?
Further if Pakistan's GDP is indeed 500B USD, it would mean Pakistan has a much more pathetic tax to GDP and savings ratio. Tax collected and savings/investments are actual figures, not estimates like GDP which will change due to rebalancing. To grow at 7% Pakistan needs a saving ratio of 30%, its currently at 16%. As per your estimates it will fall to 10%. All this doesn't add up. The current indicators like your steel production, cement production, electricity generation (if more steel, cement or electricity are not generated in the informal sector), indicates that re-basing won't have any significant change on the GDP numbers.

 

[protest]

When Pakistan's GDP gets rebased, it's likely going above 400 billion, possibly 500 billion. That will likely put Storm Force in the ICU.

Rebasing for the sake of rebasing doesn't increase your GDP. Rebasing is done when you have a sector that is being underreported or new sector/industry has comeup significantly which is not counted in your GDP calculations. There is nothing happening as such right now in Pakistan.

If so, Ishaq dar would have rebased it long time ago to gain credit being asia's best finance minister.

 

[BetterPakistan]

IM ASTONISHED how small the PAKISTANI GDP is still well below $300 billion

And I am very amused to see kiddos talking about economy. Illiterates like you don't even know what GDP and its calculation is and you're talking about countries GDP?? Men, Pakistan GDP recorded in 2016-17 was $304.3 Bn and in 2017-18 it will be more than $340 Bn (In sha ALLAH).

Pakistan GDP is small because our country don't possess 1.3 bn people like your country which will have the biggest population in the next 5 years crossing China. Let me guess the total number of poor in India is more than the population of Pakistan

So, next time before considering Pakistan look into your own country.

 

[protest]

And I am very amused to see kiddos talking about economy. Illiterates like you don't even know what GDP and its calculation is and you're talking about countries GDP?? Men, Pakistan GDP recorded in 2016-17 was $304.3 Bn and in 2017-18 it will be more than $340 Bn (In sha ALLAH).

Pakistan GDP is small because our country don't possess 1.3 bn people like your country which will have the biggest population in the next 5 years crossing China. Let me guess the total number of poor in India is more than the population of Pakistan

So, next time before considering Pakistan look into your own country.

Yes, the economist has spoken. $340 billion sure, just need your reasoning sir so we can understand it as well.

 

[BetterPakistan]

Yes, the economist has spoken. $340 billion sure, just need your reasoning sir so we can understand it as well.

Reasoning ??

If you would have learned a bit about economics you wouldn't have asked this stupid question from me.

These are official Consolidated Fiscal Projections forecast for Pakistan economy.

Rebasing for the sake of rebasing doesn't increase your GDP. Rebasing is done when you have a sector that is being underreported or new sector/industry has comeup significantly which is not counted in your GDP calculations. There is nothing happening as such right now in Pakistan.

If this is so why India keeps most updated GDP and rebases it time to time?? Rebasing should be done every decade and it is necessary. India uses 2012 as base year while Pakistan uses 2005-06 as base year.

Pakistan badly needs rebasing right away.

 

[AyanRay]

If this is so why India keeps most updated GDP and rebases it time to time?? Rebasing should be done every decade and it is necessary. India uses 2012 as base year while Pakistan uses 2005-06 as base year.

Pakistan badly needs rebasing right away

Nobody is denying the fact that Pakistan needs a re-basing, but on what basis is it being argued that it will show a spike in Pakistan's GDP numbers. Re-basing doesn't mean recounting the GDP. It only readjusts the weightage given to various sectors of the economy. So what really has changed structurally in Pakistan's economy since 2005-06 which would indicate some sectors might have been underrepresented in Pakistan's GDP.

Edit: Can you mention any two "new" sectors which did not exist in Pakistan 10 years ago but now is a very big thing?

 

[protest]

Reasoning ??

If you would have learned a bit about economics you wouldn't have asked this stupid question from me.

These are official Consolidated Fiscal Projections forecast for Pakistan economy.



If this is so why India keeps most updated GDP and rebases it time to time?? Rebasing should be done every decade and it is necessary. India uses 2012 as base year while Pakistan uses 2005-06 as base year.

Pakistan badly needs rebasing right away.

Okay. I know my economics but i want to understand yours. I want you to give me an detailed reasoning to your understanding of GDP rebasing. Not just 'India gained so could we' cliche. That's just doesn't cut it for me coming from a economist like you.

Also population census should also be done every decade but Pakistan took exception to it, showing its percapita being better than what it is in reality, what do say to that mr.economist?

India does census and rebasing as matter of policy. Rebasing is done every five years and census every decade. India has reason for it to do rebasing given an Industry like mobile production come up from nothing in 2012 to making more than 500 million smart phones in 2016 increasing to more than a billion by 2020. This will have huge impact in our next rebasing.

So give me an example like this that is happening in Pakistan. But please don't blurt out CPEC, it'll just expose your understanding of ECONOMICS.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

IM ASTONISHED how small the PAKISTANI GDP is still well below $300 billion

Why? Pakistan has about the same population of the State of Utter Pradesh in India.


The economy of Uttar Pradesh is the second largest economy in India . According to budget 2017-18, Uttar Pradesh's GSDP is ₹14.46 lakh crore (US$230 billion).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Uttar_Pradesh

 

[ziaulislam]

NOT WITHOUT manufacturing and EXPORT and investment in modern technology.

you cant grow by selling cheap garments and carpets alone

exports growth to hit double digit PER WORLD BANK report this and through year
GDP growth 5.5% and will continue to rise with CPEC, remember WB said it aint gona happen(previously projection were 4) but it did happen and WB agrees, WB is more playing catch up....

all govt projections indicate a 7% growth(WB still says aint gona happen) in 2019-2020..
i think we can easily hit 6-8% in next couple of years, key i think is to devise a good export plane to reduce pressure on reserves, IMO 3-4% of current account deficit of GDP is threatening but not an emergency as long as there is more growth in exports as compare to imports...

this second thing which is important is geo politics, Pakistan needs to get it act together and slide out of Afghanistan affairs, refuse CSF, fence the boarder, open it up for trade and respond to all Indian proxy war firmly and globally...

the huge cushion given via CPEC is not count by WB as it considered this as govt to govt investment rather than FDI, counting that there will be no requirement for foreign financing
WB is more biased when it comes to china...

1.second part is undocumented economy govt is doing study with WB its gona add 25% to our nominal GDP..
2. look at the difference between PPPP and nominal, this means that pakistan nominal can increase very rapidly as its disproportionate low to its PPPP
3. govt forcing every cooperate to use banks/cards to pay (15+ job company) is a good move
i think if visa/master is too expensive for merchants Pakistan should introduce its own payment system may be NB should take the lead

if Pakistan does add 25% to its econmy by documenting the undocumented econmy and growth at merely 5% next 5 years than assuming inflation of 7% Pakistan should be 800b$ GDP

and easily within top 20 GDPs of the world by nominal

infact by end of this year we are gona skip 10 or so countries on that list

 

[ziaulislam]

from stability point of view, the key is how PML N , PPPP and PTI act
i am more upset with PML N and PPPP statements of "mulk ko khatara" /"federation ko khatra"/"establishment"
otherwise, there has been strong political stability in Pakistan as ups and down and judiciary/govt fight is common place in democracy

no country is growing <4% in the list apart from Philippine, if govt maintains 5-6% growth for 5-7 years it should become in the top 20 countries

 

[SMC]

Rebasing for the sake of rebasing doesn't increase your GDP. Rebasing is done when you have a sector that is being underreported or new sector/industry has comeup significantly which is not counted in your GDP calculations. There is nothing happening as such right now in Pakistan.

If so, Ishaq dar would have rebased it long time ago to gain credit being asia's best finance minister.

Incorrect, there is both new industries to report as well as setting a new base year. The industries not reported are estimated to account for anything from 25%-50% of the GDP. Then changing the base year from the current base year of 2000 to something like 2010 will have a significant impact too.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

1.second part is undocumented economy govt is doing study with WB its gona add 25% to our nominal GDP..

Great news. I am convinced Pakistan has one of the largest undocumented economies on earth. There is dire need to log it. Any source or link for this please?

 

[Dexon]

i'm sure u guys know Gdp is different with living standard .you can have low GDP and have far better living standard .in comparison from country have far better Gdp...

 

[protest]

Incorrect, there is both new industries to report as well as setting a new base year. The industries not reported are estimated to account for anything from 25%-50% of the GDP. Then changing the base year from the current base year of 2000 to something like 2010 will have a significant impact too.

You Pakistanis seems to estimate everything. I want to understand the basis for such estimation. At least name few industries that weren't part of calculation but sprung up lately in the last decade. All of you seem to be superficial economists rather than substantial ones.