Obama says the U.S. will lead the world for the next 100 years. China disagrees.

[anonymus]

An indian polishing the boot of America. So sad the caste system of looking down themselves compare to whitemen still exist.

China in fact, is resources rich. China Shale gas reserve is the largest in the world. Same as Coal and many other resources.

Democracy is slowly showing its sight of weakness as many western countries are crumpling.

50 cent recruit,

The post was pretty balanced with first half explaining why US is a sole superpower and second half explaining why it would not remain so in future.

But looks like inhalation of high amount of n-Hexane has caused permanent damage to your reading comprehension abilities.

Obama also drew a "red line" over the use of chemical weapons in Syria, that line was crossed but with zero consequences?

Anyway do you really believe that America should have fought with Russia, just to keep their 1994 promise to protect Ukraine's borders?

Global hegemony is a tough thing to maintain, and Russia has clearly shown that American hegemony is zero in their part of the world. Unless they are willing to fight and win, how can they maintain global hegemony.

i have mentioned Syrian episode as a turning point. US could back off from treaty obligations towards Philippines as scarbourg shoal was disputed and they could easily make an argument that treaty is defensive not offensive but for Syria he has no excuse.


Similarly in Ukraine; while it would be unwise to act in Crimea because of whole galaxy of facts that Crimea has Russian majority, was part of Russia before georgy malinkov transferred it to Ukraine , and above all since Ukraine government yielded Crimea without protest, but he should respond to situation in Eastern Ukraine as Ukraine is trying to resist ( and failing at that ) to assert it's authority there and the area is not ethnic Russian or was ever part of Russia. Obama does not need to send invading force; a NATO peacekeeping force would do ( you know what that means ).

 

[qwerrty]

some big talk there from country with a negative economic growth and live on borrowed chinese money

 

[xunzi]

“Today, we still talk about the wisdom recorded over 2,000 years ago in a chronicle called Zuo Zhuan. It reads: Some rulers can lead their states to unstoppable prosperity because they examine themselves instead of blaming others, like Emperor Yu and Emperor Tang, while some bring their reigns to swift demise because they always criticize others, like Emperor Jie and Emperor Zhou.”

Beautifully put.

 

[flamer84]

US would remain World's strongest country not only for next 100 years but for forever. US supremacy is based on cold facts. It is practically a continent rather than a country and has corresponding resource base;It is protected by Oceans on two sides and is bordered by friendly and benign countries, and it has a whole hemisphere to which it is a primate country.No other country in the world would have similar set of advantages.Let's say for example China. China is poor in Energy resources; It is bordered by strong neighbours like India,Russia, ans Japan which means that it would have to keep large portion of it's military strength at home rather than posting them overseas. The argument of China being strongest country in history is also flawed. India and China combined accounted for as close to 60% of World's GDP to as late as early 19th century,but that figure was of the era when resources of Western hemisphere and Africa were not brought into mainstream.


The point here , which Obama seems to be missing , is not whether US would remain strongest but whether it would have enough Power over Second best country that it could enforce it's will without support of coalition of willing and on that parameter 100 years boast sounds hollow. The power differential between US and Second best ( China or China + Russia ) would reduce enough in coming 10-15 years that US would need allies to get anything done. Days of Desert storm are over.





Obama is perhaps worst US president since Carter. He does not understands that that if he does not keep his word he would make US lose credibility, and send it's allies scrounging for alternative alliance or capitulation.

It has been repeated by lily livered Leftists that US could not afford Nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine, but they ignore that Russia also could not afford Nuclear war with US over Ukraine. It was a game of Chicken and Obama blinked as he had blinked in past on Philippines and Syria before. Capitulation is second nature to Obama.

Cultural Marxists have made whole of West ( US + EU ) impotent rendering them incapable of defending themselves, and this damage is psychological rather than physical , and would take generations to heal properly. The worst of this saga may be that US Democratic party like those in every other democracy including India may have cultivated a vote bank comprising of Blacks, Hispanics, People on welfare, and East and West coast liberals thus winning election even after a horrible stint in office.


@flamer84 @KAL-EL @Desertfalcon

I for one see a multi polar world:the US,EU,China,India and maybe Russia if the Eurasian Union gets done.

The power of the US comes not only from itself but from it's allies,let's take a look:EU,Canada,Australia,Japan-the main ones.

Anyway,making predictions for the next 100 years is hazardous.A lot can happen by then.

 

[anonymus]

I for one see a multi polar world:the US,EU,China,India and maybe Russia if the Eurasian Union gets done.

The power of the US comes not only from itself but from it's allies,let's take a look:EU,Canada,Australia,Japan-the main ones.

Anyway,making predictions for the next 100 years is hazardous.A lot can happen by then.

While i want India to become a strong country which it would become as by virtue of it's resource base, it is bound to become fourth strongest country in the world; i am not amused to see collective power of West and specially USA declining, and worst of it is the fact that most of it is self inflicted.In normal circumstances far right should be avoided, but circumstances of western Europe makes me believe that far Right is only answer to European quagmire.


US, specially it's current government , had a knock for alienating it's allies. When Obama came to power he screwed Japan because of his eagerness to form some grand coalition of G-2 with China; Capitulated to Russia by offering Russian reset while ignoring the fact that Russia he is dealing with is not same as Russia of 2007 and alienated whole Center-right to Far right wing of India, which is a natural ally of US compared to leftists who consider US as fountainhead of Capitalism, Neo-liberalism, and imperialism thus fit for destruction, by publicly humiliating one of it's leader who has became Prime minister of India today, and is going to commit harakiri on Israel by dubbing it as an apartheid state. Obama administration has developed a keen knack of alienating it's allies, and potential allies.


The oft repeated dictum in politics that politics is guided by cold hard calculations has been proven as bullshit by current US administration which seem to be guided by ideology of anti-war, pro-welfare, anti military cultural Marxists.

 

[JSCh]

Anyone who think they can predict what happen in a hundred year has a brain size no better than an octopus.

 

[Developereo]

What is your analysis of America's chances of maintaining global hegemony for the next 100 years?

Even now, the US could not fulfill the promise they made to Ukraine in 1994, to protect Ukraine's borders in exchange for them giving up their nuclear arsenal.

100 years is a long time but, for the next 50 years, I would put my money on the US 100%.

Other countries, China and Russia, may match the US in military might, and China may exceed the US in economic might, but the US still rules the minds of people around the world through its media domination. People in China and Russia love to watch and copy American culture, but the reverse is not true.

People in the rest of the world see China and Russia as some strange, foreign powers, but the US is everywhere. People will shout and curse the US, and then promptly shell out their precious money for the honor to eat at McDonalds, or wear Levis, or watch American shows and movies. American policies may be criticized, but American culture and the American dream is liked around the world.

The US may not be able to twist a handful of countries like Russia, China, etc. but it will remain the single most dominant player by a long shot, and no other country will even come close to achieving the same level of global dominance.

As for Ukraine, I wrote elsewhere that this is a masterstroke by the US and it is going precisely according to US plans. We have to see Ukraine in the context of three major players: the US, the EU, and Russia. All three want to be major players and, if there is tension between two of them, the third one benefits. With Ukraine, the US has pushed Europe back to the Cold War mentality. Tension between Russia and Europe has risen; tension between Eastern Europe (which wants to punish Russia) and Western Europe (which wants to forget Ukraine and get back to business) has also arisen.

The US, from far away, is not affected at all, except for some supposed loss of face, which doesn't really exist since no one seriously doubts the military and economic might of the US.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

100 years is a long time but, for the next 50 years, I would put my money on the US 100%.

The US may not be able to twist a handful of countries like Russia, China, etc. but it will remain the single most dominant player by a long shot, and no other country will even come close to achieving the same level of global dominance.

As for Ukraine, I wrote elsewhere that this is a masterstroke by the US and it is going precisely according to US plans. We have to see Ukraine in the context of three major players: the US, the EU, and Russia. All three want to be major players and, if there is tension between two of them, the third one benefits. With Ukraine, the US has pushed Europe back to the Cold War mentality. Tension between Russia and Europe has risen; tension between Eastern Europe (which wants to punish Russia) and Western Europe (which wants to forget Ukraine and get back to business) has also arisen.

The US, from far away, is not affected at all, except for some supposed loss of face, which doesn't really exist since no one seriously doubts the military and economic might of the US.

We don't need to surpass America's power to end their global hegemony. All we have to do is "approach" their level of power, to the extent that we become a "peer power" to them. At that point their global hegemony will have ended automatically.

I agree with the rest of your post in principle.

Also, what do you think of the fact that America has a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines, yet they did not stop China from taking the Scarborough shoal in 2012?

Or Obama's "red line" on Syria, which was violated multiple times without any repercussions?

It's not just the Ukraine. America has recently been very unwilling to fulfill their promises.

How can they maintain global hegemony without being willing to fight for it? They might just have lost some face against Russia, but for the nations in Eastern Europe it is a lot more significant.

 

[Developereo]

We don't need to surpass America's power to end their global hegemony. All we have to do is "approach" their level of power, to the extent that we become a "peer power" to them. At that point their global hegemony will have ended automatically.

China and Russia will remain regional powers. The only power with global reach will be the US for a long time to come. The most obvious proof is that tensions are in Russia's neighborhood, and China's neighborhood. The US holds absolute dominance in its own neighborhood and neither Russia nor China can create serious trouble in Mexico, Canada, etc.

Also, what do you think of the fact that America has a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines, yet they did not stop China from taking the Scarborough shoal in 2012?

Or Obama's "red line" on Syria, which was violated multiple times without any repercussions?

It's not just the Ukraine. America has recently been very unwilling to fulfill their promises.

How can they maintain global hegemony without being willing to fight for it? They might just have lost some face against Russia, but for the nations in Eastern Europe it is a lot more significant.

The only non-NATO country which can count on US nuclear support is Israel. Everyone else will have to clear a much higher threshold for first-hand US support. The US will support these countries behind the scenes, but it will take a major threat to their homelands for the US to join any military conflict.

That doesn't mean that China has a free hand. I think China is overplaying its hand in the SCS because it doesn't command enough power and clout around the world just yet. There's a saying to "pick your battles and bide your time". China seems to be butting heads with everybody in the SCS, which seems unwise.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

That doesn't mean that China has a free hand. I think China is overplaying its hand in the SCS because it doesn't command enough power and clout around the world just yet. There's a saying to "pick your battles and bide your time". China seems to be butting heads with everybody in the SCS, which seems unwise.

Possibly yes, but this may be in our long term interests.

We need to be the proactive party, instead of being surprised by US-sponsored regime change like in Eastern Europe.

Also, ASEAN always refuses to condemn China. Apart from Vietnam and the Philippines, many of the others will either side with China or stay neutral. As a result, ASEAN has never been able to provide a united front against us.

Also, they saw that America was unwilling to protect the Philippines from losing territory in 2012 despite having a mutual defense treaty with them. While the other ASEAN nations do not have any such treaties with America.

In a Naval conflict, we have the overwhelming advantage, we outspend all of the ASEAN nations by a colossal margin. (Ground based war is out of the question, since there are no land-based disputes, only sea-based ones).

Still, any open warfare would be bad for us, since America would try to get us sanctioned like they are now doing to Russia.

But I feel time is on our side. At our current rate of economic expansion, nothing will stop us from becoming an economic peer power to America, short of a full-scale nuclear war. Becoming a military peer power will take far longer (but with enough money the gap will keep closing), as for global media influence, possibly never. But it will be enough one day to effectively challenge, and thus end their global hegemony, and usher in a true multipolar world by presenting ourselves as a "peer power", rather than just a "near-peer power".

The timeframe for this is many decades in the future of course.

 

[vostok]

Another madman who is going to build a "thousand-year Reich". But this one is modest - only "centennial Reich".

 

[NiceGuy]

Yeah, US will lead the world for the next 100 years, and China will still be a chess in US's hand with its country is divided into two parts as usual

 

[Luffy 500]

US if far from being overthrown from its current super power status. In the long run i believe both US-China will find a compromising solution to accomodate concers & interest of each other. It won't be like US-USSR but would be more open and dynamic and sustainable. Other powers (like brazil & russia) and wet dreaming open defecators will have to contend themselves with being junior partners of either of the 2.

 

[Developereo]

Still, any open warfare would be bad for us, since America would try to get us sanctioned like they are now doing to Russia.

The issue is not military capability: no one doubts that China has the military superiority to subdue any SCS opponent. The issue, as you mentioned, is the fallout, and China is in a much weaker position than Russia. Russia knows that Europe depends on it in many ways and will not join any serious US sanctions, so it can get away with some things. But China has no such leverage. Both the US and Europe will join hands to isolate China, and China cannot survive a combined economic sanctions regime from the West. The lion's share of the world's wealth and technology still resides in the West.

But I feel time is on our side. At our current rate of economic expansion, nothing will stop us from becoming an economic peer power to America, short of a full-scale nuclear war. Becoming a military peer power will take far longer (but with enough money the gap will keep closing), as for global media influence, possibly never. But it will be enough one day to effectively challenge, and thus end their global hegemony, and usher in a true multipolar world by presenting ourselves as a "peer power", rather than just a "near-peer power".

The timeframe for this is many decades in the future of course.

There is no doubt that, in time, China will achieve the capacity to keep America at bay where its core interests are involved.

 

[xunzi]

The issue is not military capability: no one doubts that China has the military superiority to subdue any SCS opponent. The issue, as you mentioned, is the fallout, and China is in a much weaker position than Russia. Russia knows that Europe depends on it in many ways and will not join any serious US sanctions, so it can get away with some things. But China has no such leverage. Both the US and Europe will join hands to isolate China, and China cannot survive a combined economic sanctions regime from the West. The lion's share of the world's wealth and technology still resides in the West.

Sanction China is very easy said than done. Are you forgetting the fact that our trade volume with USA and EURO worth over $1 trillion? Sanction goes both ways. Sanction us, yes we will suffer immensely but let assure that we won't sit back and not retaliate. After all, how do you sanction one with $4 trillion dollar reserve, your global engine for growth, and basically your creditor? I have to disagree with you. Yes the West's share of technology is still huge but we caught up with most of it. While our quality is still not up to Western standard, it is enough to replace the West product. We are self-sufficient. There is also the question of retaliation that you must take into account. Our basic products make inflation in America bearable and our market make US corps very profitable. Do you know that US corps stock and quarter profit continue to rise despite the so called declining US's economy? All thanks to China.