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I don't understand Kim's motivation

If his goal is to maintain Kim dynasty's rule in NK, why would he want to provoke the US ? It's not like the US is going to attack NK and overthrow Kim if he just keep quiet.
 
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I don't understand Kim's motivation

If his goal is to maintain Kim dynasty's rule in NK, why would he want to provoke the US ? It's not like the US is going to attack NK and overthrow Kim if he just keep quite.

lol, it's not like the west is going to attack Libya if Qaddafi just give up his WMDs (which he did in 2003). didn't do him much good. it's not like Russia is going to just walk into Ukraine and take crimea if ukriane just give up their nukes (which they did in 1994). when you are weak you get step on by all sides.
 
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lol, it's not like the west is going to attack Libya if Qaddafi just give up his WMDs (which he did in 2003). didn't do him much good. it's not like Russia is going to just walk into Ukraine and take crimea if ukriane just give up their nukes (which they did in 1994). when you are weak you get step on by all sides.
My analysis about Kim motivation of nuclear program has been given in other posts.

The untimate objective of Kim Jong un is to keep his facility's rule in DRPK from one generation to next.
To achieve that goal, Kim must figure out a way to make all north people kneeling down to him.

There are two kinds of person according to the cognition about outside world.
  1. The ordinary people which know nothing about outside world but what Kim told them.
  2. The top officials of KWP and generals of KPA which could not be brainwashed.
As for first kind of people, Kim should keep them brash washed which means DPRK must be isolated for others.
In regard to second kind of north korean, Kim mush develop economy and improve their lives to make them satisified which means DPRK mustn't be isolated.

So there is a dilemma . Kim Jong un' father figured out a way to solve it.

The happiest time for Kim famility is in cold war times during which Soviet Union and east european communism nations provided a lot of aid to DPRK,which made everyone satisfied with the status quo so that the rule of Kim famility was formidable.
When cold war ended, China the sole literal ally of DPRK would not like to give Kim aid enough to sustain their life as high as that is in cold war .
Instead, China advised Kim Jong II the fat kim's daddy to reform and develop its economy just as China and Vietnam did.
At first, it appeared that Kim Jong ll accept China's advice and loose the control of economy.
At the time, DPRK had some cooperation with SOK economically and cultuallly. Many SOK company established factories in DPRK's special economic zones and aid from SOK and UN went to Kim's pocket either.
The bully US also welcomed what Kim did . Things seemed to be a good ending.

All of a sudden,Kim Jong II shut down the special economic zones and stoped all reform measures after he found reform and openning is harmful to Kim family's rule. The plain north korean people which had interacted with foreigner could not be brainwashed and worship kim as a sun and a god. So, things went back to the original point.
China was very disappointed and just let it go.
DPRK would have been ignored and forgot and rotten in the cornor of Northeast Asia , if Kim Jong ll just shut down the gate and did nothing.
But Kim Jong ll shouldn't be happy being neglected and being poor . He decided to get what he wanted by nukes . In last 20 years, DPRK would get a comforting candy each time jumping out with a conflict with SOK or conducting some weapon tests.

But what Kim want is not a candy but a long life free VIP card of a French restaurant ,that is a consistent outer supply of resource and a safety guarantee.
Apparently , you are in a positon to negotiate with others on the table on condition that either you have something they want or you have something they fear .
DPRK did own anything that could interests other country, so Kim Jong ll decided to produce something that terrifies others.

But he didn't make it, and it is Kim Jong un's turn to make his father wish come true.
In a word, DPRK's nukes is a gun used by a hungry human to point at a rich guy and ask for money.
 
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Probably, but they could also launch a false flag attack on South Korea to legitimize war.

As if one mad man (albeit never waged a war since 1953) were not enough, now we have a "madder man" surrounded by self-professed mad dogs and all.

The task of China's diplomacy is to control the mad man and to restrain the madder one.

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Don't Let the Media Make You Fear War With North Korea. Turn off Your Phone and Go for a Walk

Panic over North Korea is about television ratings and maintaining a perpetual state of fear. Don't fall for it.

Riley Waggaman
Sat, Apr 15, 2017 |

Accurate.

Holy guacamole. Have you seen Twitter lately? We can't even find the latest drug-induced Louise Mensch outbursts in our "feed" — they've all been buried by a never-ending avalanche of 140-character hyperventilations about impending war with North Korea.

I have good news and bad news. Breaking from tradition: The good news first.

We're not going to war with North Korea. I say "we" because it doesn't matter what your nationality is — American, German, Eskimo — whatever invented power structure that makes you pay taxes is not going to "strike" North Korea.

And some more good news: North Korea is not going to "strike" anyone, preemptively or otherwise.

I hate to generalize so forgive me in advance, but during my short time on Earth I've noticed a familiar pattern: People ignore the real, everyday miseries that make life unbearable, like America's 20% child poverty rate, while delighting in every opportunity to stroke-out about abstractions and conjectures. Maybe it's a coping mechanism? Or maybe it's just more exciting to get swept away by visions of nuclear holocaust, as opposed to doing something with tangible benefits, such as reading a book or pruning your azaleas.

Yes, we've seen the "reports". China says war can come at any moment! Japan's Anime army is on high alert! A navy fleet is on its way (has already arrived?) to take up position off the coast of the Korean Peninsula.

And most concerning of all: Trump has already launched a salvo of provocative tweets. At least they're cheaper and more effective than anything Raytheon produces, right?

But allow me to repeat myself: We're not going to war with North Korea. And if you think we are, you're being played like a harp.

Now for the bad news: Governments, media, and other useless cartels of human scum are trying to whip you into a frenzy. Probably because it's good for television ratings and keeps many millions of people in a perpetual state of fear and anxiety. It's way easier to explain to the wage slaves why their children are malnourished if they're too afraid to care or make a fuss about it.

I'm not supposed to do this, but I'll let you in on a little industry secret: The media loves to scare the shit out of people. We love it! It's what we do best. It doesn't help anyone or anything, it often times creates a bogus sense of inevitability and doom, and it's great for ad revenue.

Don't fall for it. Turn off your phone 666 and go for a walk.

When was the last time you took your poor, diabetic dog for a walk? Put a leash on Fluffy and treat him to an ice cream cone. And make sure to get one for yourself, too — you've been awfully hard on yourself lately.

The internet is a powerful tool. But like any powerful tool, it can empower you, or make your life miserable.

You should of course read Russia Insider as often as humanly possible, and click on all of our annoying ads, but does anyone need to spend hours every day in a urine-stained corner, tweeting frantically about the End Times? Only if you're Louise Mensch or a member of her Al Nusra Twitter Front.

We are all human and we are all incredibly vulnerable and easy to manipulate. But as the great Kenneth Clark once said: Have confidence.

As Ken puts it:


At this point I reveal myself in my true colours, as a stick-in-the-mud. I hold a number of beliefs that have been repudiated by the liveliest intellects of our time. I believe that order is better than chaos, creation better than destruction. I prefer gentleness to violence, forgiveness to vendetta.

On the whole I think that knowledge is preferable to ignorance, and I am sure that human sympathy is more valuable than ideology. I believe that in spite of the recent triumphs of science, men haven't changed much in the last two thousand years; and in consequence we must still try to learn from history. History is ourselves.

I also hold one or two beliefs that are more difficult to put shortly. For example, I believe in courtesy, the ritual by which we avoid hurting other people's feelings by satisfying our own egos. And I think we should remember that we are part of a great whole. Which, for convenience, we call nature.

All living things are our brothers and sisters. Above all, I believe in the God-given genius of certain individuals, and I value a society that makes their existence possible.

Western civilization has been a series of rebirths. Surely this should give us confidence in ourselves. It's lack of confidence, more than anything else, that kills a civilization. We can destroy ourselves by cynicism and disillusion just as effectively as by bombs.

Have a peaceful, relaxing weekend. And don't forget to walk Fluffy.
 
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My analysis about Kim motivation of nuclear program has been given in other posts.

The untimely objective of Kim Jong un is to keep his facility's rule in DRPK from one generation to next.
To achieve that goal, Kim must figure out a way to make all north people kneeling down to him.

There are two kinds of person according to the recognition of outside world.
  1. The ordinary people which know nothing about outside world but the what Kim told.
  2. The top officials of KWP and generals of KPA which could not be brainwashed.
As for first kind of people, Kim should keep them brash washed which mean DPRK must be isolated for others.
In regard to second kind of north korean. Kim mush develop country economy and improve their lives which means DPRK mustn't be isolated.

So there is a dilemma . Kim Jong un' father figure out a way to solve it.

The happiest time for Kim famility is in cold war times during which Soviet Union and east european communist nations provided a lot of aid to DPRK,and everyone is satisfied with the status quo so that the rule of Kim famility is formidable.
When cold war is finished, China the only literal ally of DPRK would not like to give Kim aid enough to sustain their life as high as in cold war .
Instead, China advised Kim Jong II the fat kim's daddy to reform and develop its economy just as China and Vietnam did.
At first, it appeared that Kim Jong ll accept China's advice and loose the control of economy.
All of a sudden,Kim Jong II shut down the special economic zone and shop any reform measure when he found it is harmful to Kim family's rule. China is very disappointed and just let it go.
DPRK would just have been ignored and forgot and starving , if Kim Jong ll did nothing.
But Kim Jong ll shouldn't be satisfied with such a situation. He decided to get what he wanted by nukes . In the past 20 years, DPRK would get a comforting candy each time jumping out .

But a candy could not satisfy Kim Jong ll obvious. What he want is a consistent outer supply of resource and a safety guarantee. Now it is Kim Jong un's turn to make his father wish come true.

People who don't agree with me could compare DPRK with Vietnam and Cuba.
All of three are communism nations which are small and used to be invaded by US and lost protection umbrella of USSR.
They has lots of features in common, but the difference is their leader or leading group.

In a word, DPRK's nukes is a gun used by a hungry human to point at a rich guy and ask for money.
 
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US won't attack DPRK without Chinese approval and China won't easily allow US to attack DPRK for several reasons mainly the threat of Nuclear weapons ,Chemical and Biological weapons affecting China, Waves of N.Korean refugees trying to get into China and US getting a base right next to the Chinese border.

China will try to get rid of Kim without risking war or US military coming to North Korea. North Korean elite will turn against Kim one day and China can use its influence to help reform North Korea and develop it
 
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39618573

Pence: US era of strategic patience with North Korea over

_95665635_c60738f1-5111-4962-a40b-012230dc2c1a.jpg


US Vice-President Mike Pence has said his country's "era of strategic patience" with North Korea is over.

Mr Pence made the remarks at the demilitarised zone (DMZ), the area dividing the two Koreas, during a visit to South Korea to reaffirm ties.

His visit comes amid escalated tensions on the peninsula, with heated rhetoric from both North Korea and the US.

He arrived in Seoul on Sunday hours after North Korea carried out a failed missile launch.

On Monday, the US and South Korea launched a joint air force military exercise to ensure readiness against North Korea, according to South Korean media.

Mr Pence, whose father served in the Korean War, was speaking on Monday at the truce village of Panmunjom, where the war's armistice was signed.

He told reporters: "There was a period of strategic patience, but the era of strategic patience is over."

The US wants to achieve security on the peninsula "through peaceable means, through negotiations", he said, "but all options are on the table".

Mr Pence's latest comments echoed those made by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who warned that pre-emptive military action was "on the table" when he visited the DMZ last month.
_95665637_8bb04668-3485-47f6-ad45-d32f050441ac.jpg


Mr Pence also reiterated the US commitment to South Korea, saying it was an "iron-clad alliance", and that North Korea "should not mistake the resolve" of the US to stand with its allies.

He has denounced North Korea's latest ballistic missile test as a "provocation".

Also on Monday Mr Pence went to Camp Bonifas, a United Nations military compound near the DMZ.

Mr Pence is visiting South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Australia on a 10-day Asia tour.

On Sunday, Lt Gen HR McMaster, the US top security adviser, said his country was working on a "range of options" with China, the first confirmation the two countries were co-operating to find a solution to the North Korean issue.

US President Donald Trump also said on Sunday that Beijing was "working with us on the North Korean problem". He had stated last week that the US and its allies may "deal with" Pyongyang if China did not.

The BBC's Stephen Evans in Seoul says US policy now seems to persuade China to contain North Korea while keeping the economic and military pressure on.

China, historically Pyongyang's sole major ally, has reiterated its call for North Korea to stop all tests, and has also called for a peaceful solution.

Besides Sunday's launch, North Korea has held a series of large-scale events in the past week including a massive celebration and military parade on Saturday.

It has denounced the US deployment of an aircraft carrier group to the region, saying it would respond by "force of arms" to "reckless moves".

Observers have said North Korea may conduct a sixth nuclear test soon, with activity reported at nuclear facilities, according to the website 38 North.

Meanwhile about 1,000 US airmen and fighter jets are taking part in a combat training exercise in South Korea, reported Yonhap news agency. South Korea has sent about 500 personnel and planes. The Max Thunder exercise will last for two weeks.
 
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US cannot take this decision all alone.Theu should take other powers like china, Russia and Pakistan in confidence.
 
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What do you mean any effect? NK is so far trying hard to throw there Miissiles a bit out of there country to make sure when they decide to hit something or someone,they actually DO.So far its like a bommerang parade.you throw it,after flying for a while,it comes back..
 
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That is what I am saying

Where is the Data from the USA and South Korea about the test?

How do you expect to get any info except it exploded? Unless the North Koreans are willing to share why it exploded just right after launch.

NK gave US middle finger. What's US going to do?

North Korea's middle finger exploded thats for sure.
 
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How do you expect to get any info except it exploded? Unless the North Koreans are willing to share why it exploded just right after launch.
Why should I trust what USA is saying without evidence after a history of US lies? Please explain this to me
 
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Why should I trust what USA is saying without evidence after a history of US lies? Please explain this to me

Then don't believe what the U.S. says and just ignore what happened. Unless you want to go to North Korea and ask what happened. Think they tell you?
 
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Never watch that news. Sound fake.
US could have simulate the nuclear test through superpower computer in lab dozens of years ago.
So does China.
Really needn't to do it.

Didn't test a nuke. Just the weapon.

 
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I think North Korea is a great country with all those restrictions and no connection from the outer world these guys are still making progress, of course they are having help from other countries but still better than pakistan -,-
 
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I think North Korea is a great country with all those restrictions and no connection from the outer world these guys are still making progress, of course they are having help from other countries but still better than pakistan -,-

Please go move there, so you can join in the glory.
 
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