North Korea US Tension - News & Discussion

[jhungary]

Whatever you call it, not buying any still.

You are free to believe or buy whatever you want, no matter how naïve it is, you can also go believe one day alien will come down and killed all those Evil American, that is probably more believable than US will not destroy the world when they got nuked.

You are of course free to live in your own denial, but think about this, if you think North Korea, which have a few nuke would use them when they are pushed to the corner by the American, what would the country that have 2600 ICBM will be when they are nuked by North Korea? And you are thinking, the American will sit still and do nothing after getting nuked and plunge into civil war.

LOL

 

[Hindustani78]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...s-indias-persistence/articleshow/60386920.cms

New DELHI: Japan today welcomed the resolution on Doklam attributing it to India’s “persistence and resilience” that resulted in a peaceful settlement. Japan is looking for a “big leap” in its relationship with India, Katsuyuki Kawai, Japan prime minister’s foreign policy adviser, told a think tank, Aspen Ananta Centre

In India a week before Abe’s visit, Kawai said “Japan confronts everyday Chinese expansionist behaviour.”

Kawai said Abe expected the three pillars of the India-Japan relationship to move forward substantively during his visit. First, on the high speed railway, Japan wants to move beyond the present Mumbai-Ahmedabad line which is expected to be done by 2023 to others (Delhi-Varanasi, for instance) which are currently under negotiation.

Security and defense cooperation is the second pillar, Kawai said, where the Malabar exercise is a “symbol of cooperation.” Kawai made a strong pitch for Australia to be included in the exercises. Canberra has openly said it wants to be part of the Malabar exercises, India still retains some reservations.

The third pillar, Kawai said, was joint development of defence equipment between India and Japan. This is significant, given the current regional security context.

Making a rare intervention, Kawai said “the security environment around japan moved to a decidedly different phase.” The time has arrived he said, to consider the possibility of Japanese Self Defence Forces (SDF) acquiring cruise and ballistic missiles. On August 29 North Korea shot off a missile over Japan, which has added to the destabilisation of the region.

Kawai said he had delivered three messages to the US on behalf of Japan’s PM — first, there should be no talks with DPRK now, only “effective pressure”; second, Japan “welcomed” Trump’s announcement that “all options were on the table” and third every action by DPRK should have a reaction. “We should be careful not to fall in the dialogue and negotiation trap.”

Continuing, Kawai said, Kim Jong is neither under pressure, nor is he cornered. “Rather, Kim has the upper hand, he is playing Xi Jinping. He is taking advantage of the fact that Xi does not want trouble before the 19th party congress."


But, he added, Kim’s actions “help Xi achieve the desired outcome for himself and China by the US — the more provocative Kim becomes, the greater the value of China as a tamer to the US.“ The US procrastination about naming China a currency manipulator is a prime example. In addition, China has a deep aversion to a unified Korea under US influence emerging on its doorstep, Kawai observed.


Making a shocking revelation, Kawai said North Korea and China each have about 200 intermediate range ballistic missiles, but neither US nor Japan have any, the US having dismantled its missiles under the INF treaty with USSR. This means balance of military strength in North Asia is “extremely lopsided”

“We Japanese must face up to the fact that the security environment surrounding Japan has moved to a decidedly different phase,” Kawai said.

Looking at the unfolding crisis from the Japanese point of view, Kawai said, the time for diplomacy on North Korea is over. Describing last weekend’s nuclear test by Katsuyuki Kawai, Japan prime minister’s special adviser, who is in India just days before Abe’s visit here, said North Korea’s nuclear test last Sunday is “unacceptable and unpardonable.”

While Japan and US are working together to address the crisis, Kawai said, Japan was seriously evaluating its options — the US-Japan alliance that has endured from world war ii is “strong and effective” he said, but “our national security environment has been drastically changed since the North Korean crisis.” This is a critical time, he said, for Japan to be taking its own security decisions in the interests of its people.This is the first time a senior Japanese official has expressed doubts about the durability of the Japan-US alliance.

While it has been a pet Indian line, the high level Japanese official agreed today that the proliferation of nuclear and missile technology has contributed to the problems in the Northeast Asian region.

Japan wants to see North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure destroyed completely. Sanctions, Kawai said, don’t really work because China and Russia have created “loopholes” that helped Pyongyang evade sanctions. (North Korea has been selling weapons to African countries and Middle East, while its citizens are encouraged to work as labour in the Gulf countries). Russia and China, he said are reportedly taking steps to help North Korea circumvent the ban on coal imports etc.

 

[bsruzm]

And you are thinking, the American will sit still and do nothing after getting nuked and plunge into civil war.

You probably don't read or can't? It wasn't serious:

Don't waste your time with all these scenarios, I take nothing seriously about North Korea and US already

no matter how naïve it is

It isn't naive but is something can't be handled like that. I am still not buying such fearful scenarios but you better slow down nuking this or that.

Additionally :

https://twitter.com/x/status/905047095488516098

 

[The SC]

Putin: We reject sanctions including ban on oil imports to North Korea
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/asia/north-korea-putin-oil-embargo.html?mcubz=0

Putin: It is impossible to resolve the crisis in North Korea
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/06/asia/north-korea-russia-vladivostok/index.html

Putin: North Koreans will not give up their nuclear program even if they have to eat grass
http://www.bbc.com/arabic/world-41160049

 

[jhungary]

You probably don't read or can't? It wasn't serious:
It isn't naive but is something can't be handled like that. I am still not buying such fearful scenarios but you better slow down nuking this or that.

Additionally :

https://twitter.com/x/status/905047095488516098

Again, you are free to believe whatever you want, but if you do not care about what I said, why would you response to my post to begin with? That's wasn't even for you

 

[Hindustani78]

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lea...n-peninsula/article19631699.ece?homepage=true

Old objectives of denuclearisation and reunification have to be set aside, at least for now

The sixth nuclear test by North Korea on Sunday has provoked a predictable chorus of condemnation and hand wringing in capitals around the world. The test was anticipated, given the shrill rhetoric accompanying North Korea’s missile tests. Yet there is little to indicate if the key countries (the U.S., China, South and North Koreas and Japan) are ready to acknowledge that old policies no longer work and a new approach is needed to de-escalate tensions.

Measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale, this test indicates an explosive yield of approximately 120 kilotons, six times bigger than the Hiroshima bomb. The North Koreans described it as a successful hydrogen bomb test and also released a photograph of ‘Supreme Leader’ Kim Jong-un posing with a hydrogen bomb. In August, reports had appeared in the U.S. based on intelligence estimates that North Korea had succeeded in producing a miniature warhead that could be mated with its missiles.

While experts continue to debate whether North Korea has mastered the technology behind a fusion device or whether the posed picture was of a mock-up, the fact is that under Mr. Kim, the nuclear and missile programmes have accelerated. Four of the six nuclear tests have been conducted after he took over in 2011; the earlier two were conducted in 2006 and 2009. Missile development began earlier but while Kim Jong-il conducted 16 missile tests during his rule from 1994 to 2011, his son and successor Kim Jong-un has undertaken more than 80 missile tests. Longer range and solid fuel missiles have been tested and North Korea’s fissile material stockpile is enough for 25 devices.

On July 4, North Korea tested Hwasong-14, described as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. Tested in a lofted trajectory, it reached a height of 2,800 km and travelled a distance of 933 km, implying a range of 6,500 km in a normal trajectory, bringing mainland America within range. It was described as a ‘game changer’, something that U.S. President Donald Trump had vowed he would prevent by doing ‘whatever was necessary’.

Trump’s ballistic stand
The U.S. policy under Mr. Trump has been ‘maximum pressure on North Korea’ and ‘engagement with China’. Since July, Mr. Trump’s tweets indicate a growing impatience with China’s inability to restrain North Korea. He has blamed China for increasing its trade with North Korea despite sanctions and conveyed ‘disappointment’ that “they do nothing for us with North Korea, just talk”.

In August, he tweeted that North Korean threats will be met with “fire and fury like the world has never seen”. North Korea countered with a threat to launch four missiles around Guam “enveloping it in fire”, adding that “sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason”. Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council has met regularly to condemn North Korean missile tests and tighten sanctions.

While Mr. Trump has indicated that “military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely”, his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson adopted a measured tone when he said, “We do not seek a regime change, we do not seek a collapse of the regime, we do not seek an accelerated reunification of the peninsula, we do not seek an excuse to send our military north of the 38th Parallel.”

China and Russia have been critical of North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests, proposing that if the U.S. and South Korea were to suspend their joint military exercises, North Korea could agree to suspending its tests, opening the way to a dialogue. This was rejected and the joint exercises took place in end-August, as scheduled. Meanwhile, live firing drills have been taking place in the region raising the risks of a crisis erupting through miscalculation or miscommunication as North Korea prepares to celebrate its Foundation Day this week with military parades.

Nuclear crises in the past
Since 1991, this is the third nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula. Post-Cold War, there was a thaw when the U.S. (and then the U.S.S.R.) withdrew naval and tactical nuclear weapons globally, including the ones in South Korea. A Joint Declaration on the Denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula between the two Koreas followed, even though the two countries do not recognise each other. With resumption of U.S.-South Korea military exercises and new U.S. sanctions on North Korea, positions hardened leading to the first crisis in 1993 with North Korea threatening to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In Pyongyang, there was a leadership change with Kim Jong-il taking over after his father’s death. The crisis was averted by direct talks with the U.S. leading to an Agreed Framework in 1994 under which North Korea suspended its decision to withdraw from the NPT, agreed to freeze its nuclear activities and in return, the U.S. pledged to build two light water nuclear power reactors.

The Clinton administration also provided more than $800 million of food aid and humanitarian assistance. The fact that the NPT was to be extended in 1995 was undoubtedly a factor in ensuring that North Korea’s withdrawal be blocked.

The Bush administration annulled the 1994 Framework Agreement (the two reactors remain unfinished), and in 2002 declared North Korea part of the ‘axis of evil’. North Korea reacted by formally quitting the NPT in 2003 provoking the second crisis. China and Russia initiated the Six-Party Talks in 2003 which the U.S. joined under pressure from its regional allies, Japan and South Korea. These took place in a broader context leading to the 2005 Joint Statement which reiterated the commitment to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, agreed to negotiate a peace treaty to replace the 1953 armistice, provided for a U.S. security guarantee to North Korea which in turn agreed to rejoin the NPT as soon as possible. However, when the U.S. imposed new sanctions a few months later, North Korea responded with its first nuclear test in 2006 and the Six Party Talks collapsed.

Resolving the issue
Kim Jong-un took over in 2011 and, having seen the outcome of western interventions in Libya and Iraq and Russian intervention in Ukraine, is convinced that he needs a nuclear deterrent for regime survival. In addition, he wants direct talks with the U.S. that will provide him recognition and lessen his dependence on China, and finally, an easing of sanctions. He might agree to a temporary halt in testing as a means to start a dialogue but will not accept any restriction on capabilities in return for mere verbal assurances. The old carrot and stick policies will not work. Military action may lead to nuclearisation in Japan and South Korea. Sanctions have limited utility because China accounts for 90% of North Korea’s foreign trade and for China, a nuclear North Korea is a lesser threat than a regime collapse that could lead to a unified Korea allied to the U.S.

The 1953 Armistice Agreement was signed by North Korea, China and the U.S. (representing the U.N. Command) ending hostilities and was to be followed by a peace treaty which remains pending. South Korea (and the U.S.) and North Korea do not recognise each other; North Korea considers the South under U.S. occupation while South Korea considers the entire peninsula as its territory. Sovereignty issues have been bypassed when politics is favourable as in 1991 when both Koreas were simultaneously admitted to the UN. China, looking for investment and technology, pragmatically recognised South Korea in 1992, much to North Korea’s annoyance.

Today, times have changed and there is more mistrust all around. Moreover, Mr. Kim is suspicious of China and the Chinese consider his provocations timed to embarrass President Xi Jinping — with missile tests during the Belt and Road summit and the nuclear test during BRICS, and with the crucial Party Congress due in October.

The old objectives of ‘denuclearisation’ and ‘reunification’ have to be set aside. North Korea’s nuclear capability will have to be accepted, at least for the foreseeable future. Mutual recognition will have to precede reunification and for this, the two Koreas need to begin a dialogue in due course. Managing this requires closer understanding between the U.S. and South Korea than is currently on display. For Mr. Kim, the stakes are existential and parallel negotiations on political and nuclear tracks are needed if the current crisis is to be averted.

Rakesh Sood is a former diplomat and currently Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation

 

[Penguin]

The Air Force's 'rods from god' could hit with the force a nuclear weapon — but with no fallout

Thor used a large projectile from a few thousand miles above the Earth. The “rods from god” idea was a bundle of telephone-pole sized (20 feet long, one foot in diameter) tungsten rods, dropped from orbit, reaching a speed of up to ten times the speed of sound.

The rod itself would penetrate hundreds of feet into the Earth, destroying any potential hardened bunkers or secret underground sites. More than that, when the rod hits, the explosion would be on par with the magnitude of a ground-penetrating nuclear weapon – but with no fallout.

It would take 15 minutes to destroy a target with such a weapon.

One Quora user who works in the defense aerospace industry quoted a cost of no less than $10,000 per pound to fire anything into space. With 20 cubic feet of dense tungsten weighing in at just over 24,000 pounds, the math is easy. Just one of the rods would be prohibitively expensive. The cost of $230 million dollars per rod was unimaginable during the Cold War.

These days, not so much. The Bush Administration even considered revisiting the idea to hit underground nuclear sites in rogue nations in the years following 9/11.
http://www.businessinsider.com/air-...pon-force-2017-9?international=true&r=US&IR=T

 

[GumNaam]

anybody notice that super duper THAAD that was supposed to be protecting Japan and south Korea couldn't even detect let alone intercept the two north Korean missiles that flew over Japan causing a wide spread panic of a missile attack?

 

[GumNaam]

north Koreans fired yet another missile over Japan and thaad failed to detect or intercept it again.

what the heck is going on??? Chinese and the Russians rubbing it in the face of americans thru the north Koreans that thaad is worthless?

 

[Hindustani78]

A file photo of a missile during a military parade in Pyongyang. | Photo Credit: AP

http://www.thehindu.com/news/intern...a-conundrum/article19813618.ece?homepage=true

Questions are being raised about how it will respond to a regime collapse
Securing North Korea’s missile launchers and nuclear, chemical and biological weapons sites would likely be a chief priority for China in the event of a major crisis involving its communist neighbour, analysts say, although Beijing so far is keeping mum on any plans.

Despite China’s official silence, its People’s Liberation Army likely has a “vast array” of contingency plans involving military options, said Dean Cheng, an Asia security expert at the Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington.

The PLA and paramilitary People’s Armed Police could also be deployed to deal with refugees and possible civil unrest, he said.

What’s less clear is whether and under what conditions China would commit troops as an occupying force should North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s regime fall apart, Mr. Cheng said. “We can hypothesise that they might, but, as the observation goes, those who know don’t say and those who say probably don’t know,” he said.

With tensions between the U.S. and North Korea running high and relations between Beijing and Pyongyang at a historic low, questions are being raised about how China might respond in the event of a regime collapse. The scene along the China-North Korea border in the wild mountains of northeast Asia provides some clues.

Despite a dearth of traffic and trade, construction crews are at work on a six-lane highway to the border outside the small Chinese city of Ji’an along the Tumen River, a corridor that could facilitate the rapid movement of tanks and troops.

Strategic choice

Guard posts, barbed wire-topped fences and checkpoints manned by armed paramilitary troops mark the frontier along the border signs of concern about potentially violent border crossers or even more serious security threats.

China’s unwillingness to discuss its plans is likely a strategic choice by the notoriously secretive PLA, but potentially threatens unintended consequences were a major crisis to emerge, experts say. Asked about Chinese preparations for a North Korean crisis, defense ministry spokesman Col. Wu Qian offered assurance but no details at a monthly news briefing on Thursday.

 

[Hindustani78]

• North Korea has 1.2million troops ready to fight compared to 28,000 US soldiers in the region and South Korea's 490,000 service personnel
• If war broke out it could take months for reinforcements to arrive and leave American forces badly outnumbered, potentially leading to defeat
• Warning issued by former US commander in Korea in a letter to politicians
• Comes as three US carrier groups conduct drills in the region

By Chris Pleasance for MailOnline

Published: 10:59 GMT, 13 November 2017 | Updated: 15:16 GMT, 13 November 2017


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...isk-LOSING-war-North-Korea.html#ixzz4yKlkaiG3

Jouas cautioned that it would take days or months for reinforcements to reach the region, leaving 28,000 American troops and 490,000 South Korean soldiers to fend off 1.2million North Korean fighters.

American and South Korean forces would be badly outnumbered in the event of sudden war on the Korean peninsula, and it could take months to reinforce them the former deputy commander of US forces in the region has warned

+8
As well as fending off a numerically superior enemy, American and South Korean troops would have to deal with artillery and rocket bombardments and should 'expect' chemical and nuclear attacks as well, Lieutenant General Jan-Marc Jouas said (file image)

+8
While America possesses far superior air power, it would still take days to eliminate North Korea's artillery and rocket batteries, leading to thousands of people being killed (pictured, three American aircraft carriers complete drills in the region)

The soldiers would have to contend with artillery and rocket bombardments and should 'expect' attacks with chemical and nuclear weapons as well, he wrote in a letter seen by Newsweek.

One distinct advantage held by American forces is a vastly superior air force which could be used to take out artillery and rocket batteries - but this task would likely take 'days', Jouas said, during which 'a lot of people will die'.

And if North Korean troops advance quickly into major cities in the South much America's air power would be negated for fear of killing civilians with strikes, he said.

Seoul, home to almost 10million, is located just 35 miles south of the Demilitarized Zone which forms the current border between North and South Korea.

In a letter sent to Democrats on November 7, Jouas wrote: 'The 28,500 U.S. Armed Forces personnel in South Korea are vastly outnumbered by North Korean forces, as well as [South Korean] forces that will conduct the overwhelming majority of the fighting.

'Unlike every conflict since the last Korean War, we will not be able to build up our forces prior to the start of hostilities' because Kim will preempt any attempt to do so with an attack of his own, Jouas wrote.

+8
Jouas, who was heavily involved in two years of planning for a North Korean attack on the South, issued the stark warning in a letter to Democrats. It comes amid heightened regional tensions (pictured, Japanese and American ships drill in the Pacific)

+8
If North Korean troops advanced quickly south and entered major cities, it would negate much of America's air power for fear of bombing civilians, Jouas warned

+8
President Trump has threatened to 'totally destroy' North Korea if America or any of its regional allies are threatened by Kim Jong Un

On top of dealing with a vastly larger North Korean army, chemical and possible nuclear attacks, American and South Korean forces will also have a humanitarian crisis to manage.

'This will include over a hundred thousand non-combatant Americans, many of who will turn to US forces to get them off the peninsula,' Jouas wrote.

From January 2012 to December 2014, Jouas was deeply involved in drawing up plans to counter a North Korean attack on South Korea, calling it the biggest challenge he had dealt with in his 35-year career.

While the Pentagon has not released official estimates of how costly a war with the North would be, retired general Rob Givens said current calculations suggest 20,000 people could die per day at the start of the conflict.

Meanwhile the Congressional Research Service estimated 300,000 dead within the first few days, with 25million affected on either side of the border.

 

[randomradio]

Meanwhile the Congressional Research Service estimated 300,000 dead within the first few days, with 25million affected on either side of the border.

That's 1/3rd the population. The numbers are underestimated though. A Korean war will affect the entire peninsula.

Anyway, I doubt N Korea has the offensive power necessary to pose a threat.