Nadeem Malik live with ASAD UMAR

[Shahzaz ud din]

Nadeem Malik live with ASAD UMER

 

[ziaulislam]

Problem is govt is royally screwed

It has fiscal deficit of 7% on top my of 1400 billion rupees in goign power dificit along with similar amount of public enterprises debt...to be honest there is no easy way out of this

Remember when pmln came it was panicing ...this is three times worse situation than that..

deficit is and combine debt amounts to whopping 10% of GDP or nearly 5 years of developmentt fund!

I have never seen such irresponsible spending PPPP was way better here

 

[khanasifm]

[emoji106]

 

[xyxmt]

Problem is govt is royally screwed

It has fiscal deficit of 7% on top my of 1400 billion rupees in goign power dificit along with similar amount of public enterprises debt...to be honest there is no easy way out of this

Remember when pmln came it was panicing ...this is three times worse situation than that..

deficit is and combine debt amounts to whopping 10% of GDP or nearly 5 years of developmentt fund!

I have never seen such irresponsible spending PPPP was way better here

5 years from now you will say PMLN was way better than PTI in this matter
this power deficit was passed over to PPP by our favorite martial law administrator, PPP did not do anything to solve it and transferred to PMLN and same here again, compounded and transferred to PTI, and since PTI is better than all three they will solve this problem or worst transfer to back to PMLN after next election.

 

[ziaulislam]

5 years from now you will say PMLN was way better than PTI in this matter
this power deficit was passed over to PPP by our favorite martial law administrator, PPP did not do anything to solve it and transferred to PMLN and same here again, compounded and transferred to PTI, and since PTI is better than all three they will solve this problem or worst transfer to back to PMLN after next election.

yup I would say that if facts and figures support this..so write it down..if PTI
1.triples the circular debt to 3600 billion rupees as PMLN did (increase from 400 to 1200)
2. increase the difcit to 7%(I should say 10% as PPPP left it at 4%while pmln at 7%)
3. Decrease exports by 20%
4. Cause a near defualters situation with 20% devlauation
5. Increase debt to gdp ratio by whopping 14% 6. All of this in presence of low oil prices and do zero public sector reforms

Than yes indeed I will say PMLN and PTI govt were the same ...
But I doubt things can get more worse as we are already in near collapse situation

PPP left 400 billion power dificit
PMLN swelled it up to 1400billion even though oil fell from 150$ to just 40$!!!!

 

[ziaulislam]

I doubt anyone can get rid of public sector 3600 billion rupees debt...the goal should be to ensure it doesn't balloon up by 400% as happened in PML N era

If u take out OBOR project which I think is purely Chinese intiative in Pakistan and 24 other countries some getting more investment than Pakistan (almost all of them if per capital) , than PMLN performance in fiscal field, exports, reforms are way worse than PPPP era
All they have to show is average of 5% GDP growth as comapresto 4% due to runaway over spending and OBOR, this too not in middle of finicial crisis of 2008-2010 and 3x oil prices but when ecinomies all over the world are booming..this overspending resulted in massive devaluations and inflation...

 

[VCheng]

But I doubt things can get more worse as we are already in near collapse situation

A collapse is still worse than a near collapse situation.

Right now, I think IMF or no IMF is the big question. If not the IMF, then what conditions come associated with it? If the IMF, then its prescriptions are fairly predictable.

 

[ziaulislam]

A collapse is still worse than a near collapse situation.

Right now, I think IMF or no IMF is the big question. If not the IMF, then what conditions come associated with it? If the IMF, then its prescriptions are fairly predictable.

real question would be what reforms to avoid a full collapse...

govt would need to find away to keep GDP growth at minimum 5% and still being able to bring down fiscal deficit to 4% from 7%, increase exports and do reforms by getting rid of public enterprises losses one way or another..

just by doing above everything else will be addressed by itself..balance of payment issue will go away just by reducing the fiscal deficit though exports need work too...

i think biggest issue is still "affordable energy"..how to get hold of this 1400 billion rupees deficit ...this would need strict reforms primarily in distribution, selling off distribution companies, holding govt institutes accountable(as prime defaulters are state institutes)...one of the biggest concern is affordable energy is the oil mafia lack of modern refineries means that oil mafia wants govt o purchase furnace oil from them which means expensive power, so govt needs a new modern refineries

 

[VCheng]

real question would be what reforms to avoid a full collapse...

govt would need to find away to keep GDP growth at minimum 5% and still being able to bring down fiscal deficit to 4% from 7%, increase exports and do reforms by getting rid of public enterprises losses one way or another..

just by doing above everything else will be addressed by itself..balance of payment issue will go away just by reducing the fiscal deficit though exports need work too...

i think biggest issue is still "affordable energy"..how to get hold of this 1400 billion rupees deficit ...this would need strict reforms primarily in distribution, selling off distribution companies, holding govt institutes accountable(as prime defaulters are state institutes)...one of the biggest concern is affordable energy is the oil mafia lack of modern refineries means that oil mafia wants govt o purchase furnace oil from them which means expensive power, so govt needs a new modern refineries

I think you have mentioned the major issues quite nicely. It remains to be seen how effective the steps being taken by the naya government will turn out to be, and we need to give them some time to do it.

 

[ziaulislam]

I think you have mentioned the major issues quite nicely. It remains to be seen how effective the steps being taken by the naya government will turn out to be, and we need to give them some time to do it.

the good thing is at least the finance minister knows what the problems are...now how much political push backs he gets will be the issue..encouraging news is that cheaper energy is gradually coming online in the form of thar coal(~5 cents), coastal nuc plants(~6 cents), LNG 8 cents and hydro (4 cents for dasu-tarbela V/8 cents for other IPPs). this should further drop the average price from 10 cents to around 8 cents as furnace oils goes down, bad news is that oil is going to hit 100$ soon due to iran sega...

but this doesnt matter if distribution losses are not fixed

govt is stuck between smart meters or no smart meters, i would say a mix approach is needed, privatize the distribution sector with low loses and work on fixing the one with high loses(i doubt privatizing without fixing will work)

i feel sorry for sharif brothers, i doubt they knew how much Dar was screwing them over

 

[VCheng]

the good thing is at least the finance minister knows what the problems are...now how much political push backs he gets will be the issue..encouraging news is that cheaper energy is gradually coming online in the form of thar coal(~5 cents), coastal nuc plants(~6 cents), LNG 8 cents and hydro (4 cents for dasu-tarbela V/8 cents for other IPPs). this should further drop the average price from 10 cents to around 8 cents as furnace oils goes down, bad news is that oil is going to hit 100$ soon due to iran sega...

but this doesnt matter if distribution losses are not fixed

govt is stuck between smart meters or no smart meters, i would say a mix approach is needed, privatize the distribution sector with low loses and work on fixing the one with high loses(i doubt privatizing without fixing will work)

i feel sorry for sharif brothers, i doubt they knew how much Dar was screwing them over

The political pushback will be exactly the same as what PTI did to PMLN when the roles were reversed, but that is only to be expected.

Smart meters or no smart meters is the power distribution equivalent of re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic, in my view, but that is also only to be expected since the fundamentals are so far off the track and nobody knows which way is North anymore.

 

[Peaceful Civilian]

We should increase tax and need to finish all subsidies. Already Enough freebies.
Now, nation should understand you can't run country without taxes, and We need courts on fast track to decide cases. We can't move foward if we don't deal corrupt people with iron hands. NAB should perform his role .

 

[Kabira]

yup I would say that if facts and figures support this..so write it down..if PT
1.triples the circular debt to 3600 billion rupees as PMLN did (increase from 400 to 1200)
2. increase the difcit to 7%(I should say 10% as PPPP left it at 4%while pmln at 7%)
3. Decrease exports by 20%
4. Cause a near defualters situation with 20% devlauation
5. Increase debt to gdp ratio by whopping 14% 6. All of this in presence of low oil prices and do zero public sector reforms

Than yes indeed I will say PMLN and PTI govt were the same ...
But I doubt things can get more worse as we are already in near collapse situation

PPP left 400 billion power dificit
PMLN swelled it up to 1400billion even though oil fell from 150$ to just 40$!!!!

Both PPP and PMLN left 1180b circular debt in 10 years, while you are giving PTI leverage of up to 3600b in 5 years.

PTI will have added advantage of using less and less oil for power plants making electricity cheaper. Need to cut line losses to take advantage of that and bringing down circular debt, not increasing to 3600b to show "performance".

 

[ziaulislam]

Both PPP and PMLN left 1180b circular debt in 10 years, while you are giving PTI leverage of up to 3600b in 5 years.

PTI will have added advantage of using less and less oil for power plants making electricity cheaper. Need to cut line losses to take advantage of that and bringing down circular debt, not increasing to 3600b to show "performance".

Facts first
PMLQ left 150 billion
PPPP left 450 billion
PMLN left 1180+163(gas)=1350 billion

For pti i was counting in percentage..i thunk even 1500 billion mark will be failure

Both PPP and PMLN left 1180b circular debt in 10 years, while you are giving PTI leverage of up to 3600b in 5 years.

PTI will have added advantage of using less and less oil for power plants making electricity cheaper. Need to cut line losses to take advantage of that and bringing down circular debt, not increasing to 3600b to show "performance".

nope...that advantage is gone as oil have bumped up to 80 from average of 50 and expected to hit 100$

 

[Sugarcane]

Both PPP and PMLN left 1180b circular debt in 10 years, while you are giving PTI leverage of up to 3600b in 5 years.

PMLN cleared previous debt on joining, so current debt is of 5 years only by PMLN. Keep in mind PMLN enjoyed period with lowest crude prices without passing down the benift to consumers but anyway they were crroks so PTI must reduce circular debts not balloon it.