IndianTiger
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India's poverty rate
may 'fall' to 24% by
2015 Tags : Eastern , Millennium Development Goals , UN MDG , Jayati Ghosh , India June 23, 2010 The global financial
crisis has hit
the
realisation
of Millennium Development
Goals hard with loss of
employment and food
inflation slowing down the
progress and an additional
64 million people expected to be thrown into extreme
poverty by 2010-end
relative to a no-crisis
scenario. "Poverty rates will be
slightly higher in 2015 and
even beyond, to 2020, than
they would have been had
the world economy grown
at its pre-crisis pace," says a UN MDG report released on
Wednesday. The report said the
progress against hunger
has been impacted more
severely by the economic
turmoil with skyrocketing
food prices and falling incomes swelling the ranks
of undernourished. "The ability of the poor to
feed their families was hit
consecutively by
skyrocketing food prices in
2008 and falling incomes in
2009, and the number of malnourished already
growing since the
beginning of the decade
may have grown at a
faster pace," the report
says. Food prices spiked in 2008
and falling incomes due to
the financial crisis further
worsened the situation. According to estimates of
the Food and Agricultural
Organisation globally, the
number of people who
were undernourished in
2008 could have been as high as 915 million and
exceeded 1 billion in 2009. South Asia, with India [ Images ] as a predominant player, has not faired well
on most of the goals'
fronts, with its record just
above sub Saharan Africa. However, the report is
optimistic that progress
can be made in reducing
hunger and poverty by
2015, spurned largely by
China in Asia. "Poverty rates in China are
expected to fall to around
five per cent by 2015. In
India, poverty rates are
expected to fall from 51
per cent in 1990 to 24 per cent in 2015, and the
number of people living in
extreme poverty will
likely decrease by 188
million," the report says. The world could have
faired much better on the
MDGs if the global financial
crisis had not occurred. The Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs)
are eight international
development goals that all
192 UN member states
agreed to achieve by the year 2015. They are eradicating
extreme poverty and
hunger, achieving universal
primary education,
promoting gender equality
and empowering women, reducing Child Mortality
Rate, improving maternal
health, combating HIV/
AIDS, malaria, and other
diseases, ensuring
environmental sustainability and
developing a global
partnership for
development. Estimates suggest that the
crisis will leave an
additional 50 million people
in extreme poverty in 2009
and some 64 million by the
end of 2010 relative to a no-crisis scenario,
principally in sub-Saharan
Africa, Eastern and South
Eastern Asia. The crisis also threw
millions into a scenario of
vulnerable employment
and in the unorganised
sector. "The positive downward
trend in vulnerable
employment was
interrupted by
deteriorating conditions on
the labour market following the financial
crisis," the report says. For many wage and
salaried workers who lost
their jobs, as well as first
time job seekers who
entered the labour market
in the midst of the crisis, own-account and unpaid
family work are options of
last resort. "The ILO estimates the
global vulnerable
employment rate in 2009
to be between 49 per cent
and 53 per cent, which
translates into 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion people who are
working on their own or
as unpaid family workers
worldwide." The goal of fighting hunger
also met a roadblock with
the progress made since
1990s watered down by
the crisis. According to the
report, since 1990, developing regions have
made some progress
towards the MDG target of
halving the proportion of
people suffering from
hunger. The share of undernourished
populations decreased
from 20 per cent in
1990-1992 to 16 per cent in
2005- 2007. However, progress has
stalled since 2000-2002.
Hunger may have spiked in
2009, one of the many dire
consequences of the global
food and financial crisis. "In 2005-2007, the last
period assessed, 830 million
people were still
undernourished, an
increase from 817 million in
1990-1992," it said. In the field of child
mortality rate, India
witnessed improvement
but it was slow and
highlighted disparity. "Two states -- Tamil Nadu
and West Bengal [ Images ] -- have reduced the child
mortality rate by 70 to 56
per cent respectively but
economically better off
states like Maharashtra [ Images ] and Gujarat have shown almost no
improvement," said Jayati
Ghosh, professor of
economics at the
Jawaharlal Nehru [ Images ] University. Maternal health and
mortality rate continues to
be another dark spot for
South Asia, where only
one in four rural women
will have access to medically aided deliveries.
There was some good
news in the combating the
spread of HIV AIDS, in
which case the death rate
and incidence has started to come down but the rate of
new infections continue to
outstrip access to
treatment, according to the
report. Lack of access to sanitation
is another area of concern
where sufficient progress
has not been made. "In rural South Asia, only a
quarter of people have
access to sanitation.
Improvement has been
witnessed in the case of
slum dwellers but that is perhaps more because of
the change in definition of
slums," Ghosh said
presenting an analysis of
the report. The UN report cites big
gains in getting children
into primary schools in
many poor countries,
especially in Africa, strong
interventions in addressing AIDS, malaria and child
health and a good chance
to reach the target for
access to clean drinking
water. But also traces the poor
record in some other fields
like only half of the
developing world's
population has access to
improved sanitation, girls in the poorest quintile of
households are 3.5 times
more likely to be out of
school than those from the
richest households, and
four times more likely than boys from this
background. It also says that less than
half of the women in some
developing regions
benefits from maternal
care by skilled health
personnel when giving birth. The report also says that
the sharpest reductions in
poverty worldwide
continue to be recorded in
East and South East Asia
where MDG target of halving extreme poverty
has already been met, but
most South Asia is in
danger of missing the
target. South Asia also has a large
percentage of people in so-
called vulnerable
employment, characterised
by inadequate earnings,
substandard working conditions and a lack of
formal work arrangement
and benefits
