Moeed Pirzada Analysis of Karachi Blast

[SQ8]

Really good pts. Thanks for sharing.



Apparently.

Kyoun k RAW ka tau kuch nahi kar sakree yeh fauj. Glorified internal paramilitary force ban gaeyee hai, at best.

Bhai, exaggeration ki bhi hadd hoti hai.

Theek hai ke political inference kafi hai kuch logun ke apne maqasid ke liye magar angrezi mein kehte hai “you don’t throw the baby out with the bath water”.

The military and intelligence services are still engaged in their tasks outside of those roped into internal interference and those people are performing their duties regardless to keep things safe. If the current scenario has provided an opportunity for a surge in terror activities and assuming its ONLY(which it isn’t) the current leadership’s incompetence that is letting them through it still doesn’t mean those men losing their lives or those still trying to do their COIN tasks dutifully have their efforts unrecognized

The unfortunate thing about Pakistani mentality is that they can only think in terms of Allah or Shaitan.. if someone is seen as good then they anaouzubillah are next to Allah.. and if something bad is found then Shaitan is considered an angel in front of them.

While in reality everyone is human.

 

[R Wing]

Bhai, exaggeration ki bhi hadd hoti hai.

Theek hai ke political inference kafi hai kuch logun ke apne maqasid ke liye magar angrezi mein kehte hai “you don’t throw the baby out with the bath water”.

The military and intelligence services are still engaged in their tasks outside of those roped into internal interference and those people are performing their duties regardless to keep things safe. If the current scenario has provided an opportunity for a surge in terror activities and assuming its ONLY(which it isn’t) the current leadership’s incompetence that is letting them through it still doesn’t mean those men losing their lives or those still trying to do their COIN tasks dutifully have their efforts unrecognized

The unfortunate thing about Pakistani mentality is that they can only think in terms of Allah or Shaitan.. if someone is seen as good then they anaouzubillah are next to Allah.. and if something bad is found then Shaitan is considered an angel in front of them.

While in reality everyone is human.

Sir,

A bit disappointed to read your reply. Not because what you're saying is untrue, but because you know me on this forum (and perhaps don't know my contributions to the security of the nation), I'm a little surprised that you're insinuating that I am engaging with low levels of nuance.

Everything you described (including the sacrifice of tactical teams, which I have always respected) still falls into the remit of, more or less, a glorified internal paramilitary force. Random, isolated exceptions don't make the rule. Good tactics without a sound strategy are meaningless.

The ISI has actually built up some pretty formidable CT capabilities, as some here must know. Unfortunately, defensive capacity alone (like tactics) becomes meaningless if it isn't balanced with offensive capabilities. Why? Because only offensive actions deter. Today, how is Doval being deterred? How are we raising the cost for RAW? By hunting militants and their commanders, so India's agencies can simply replace them? That isn't active deterrence. At best, it's mild nuisance.

If your enemy knows that it can support proxies to kill your people EVERY WEEK (from officers to civilians and everybody in between) without fearing a) that there will be tit-for-tat attacks in India proper in the same proportion and b) that they will be targeted directly/personally, then WHY wouldn't it continue to kill your people? Even a child understands deterrence better than this.

If you don't call that failure, then we can simply agree to disagree.

The inspirational sacrifices and the defensive vigilance of the agencies can still be lauded, so I agree with you there --- but we are talking about fundamentally different things, it seems. If they are unable to execute deniable kinetic ops in India to deter the backers of anti-Pak militants, then they are mostly a glorified internal paramilitary force.

 

[SaadH]

The one responsible for the above fiasco alone deserves to be hanged. What kind of a stupid moron does that? Or maybe it was intentional. I keep saying this, the establishment is full of traitors and sold out scumbags. A pateiot even if dumb would never do that. These people onky care for their personal wealth and benefits. We need thorough cleaning up but who will do it. At this point i dont trust anyone in military leaders. May Allah help Pakistan, it seems our whole state is compromised from within.

That whole bone headed accident line couldn't have been disseminated without approval going all the way to the top...goes to show what kind of next level moron this incompetent traitor Bajwa is...

 

[NA71]

I agree that establishment should stay away from politics, but our politicians are also extremely immature. They want their intervention.

how can they stay away... politics is their prime time entertainment

 

[Goenitz]

 

[Mirzali Khan]

I dont know if its incompetence

Its not incompetence. They all eat from the same plate. Any sane country would lock up people supporting terror groups. In Pakistan these accounts openly do it even with their names and faces out there. No hope.

I certainly wish to be wrong but things are not even near going in the right direction.

The time to fix this gap is shortening. Soon it will close and be too late...

(rather, BEG them to join).

Random white ladies who visit Pakistan

 

[SQ8]

Sir,

A bit disappointed to read your reply. Not because what you're saying is untrue, but because you know me on this forum (and perhaps don't know my contributions to the security of the nation), I'm a little surprised that you're insinuating that I am engaging with low levels of nuance.

Everything you described (including the sacrifice of tactical teams, which I have always respected) still falls into the remit of, more or less, a glorified internal paramilitary force. Random, isolated exceptions don't make the rule. Good tactics without a sound strategy are meaningless.

The ISI has actually built up some pretty formidable CT capabilities, as some here must know. Unfortunately, defensive capacity alone (like tactics) becomes meaningless if it isn't balanced with offensive capabilities. Why? Because only offensive actions deter. Today, how is Doval being deterred? How are we raising the cost for RAW? By hunting militants and their commanders, so India's agencies can simply replace them? That isn't active deterrence. At best, it's mild nuisance.

If your enemy knows that it can support proxies to kill your people EVERY WEEK (from officers to civilians and everybody in between) without fearing a) that there will be tit-for-tat attacks in India proper in the same proportion and b) that they will be targeted directly/personally, then WHY wouldn't it continue to kill your people? Even a child understands deterrence better than this.

If you don't call that failure, then we can simply agree to disagree.

The inspirational sacrifices and the defensive vigilance of the agencies can still be lauded, so I agree with you there --- but we are talking about fundamentally different things, it seems. If they are unable to execute deniable kinetic ops in India to deter the backers of anti-Pak militants, then they are mostly a glorified internal paramilitary force.

If you have been in the “industry” then you must also look at the strategic implications of such “offensive” ops and the diplomatic and financial agency requirements to execute them effectively. “Chadar dekh kar paon phelana” is the term.
At this point neither the state institutions nor their leadership, nor the economy nor the people themselves possess anything other than hot air as execution capability.

 

[Wa Muhammada]

IK also came into power by that manipulation. If you don't want Army intervention in politics, it has to be across the board. That is not being demanded here. IK wants army intervention, on his behalf. The man is undemocratic to the core, and had the power given to him on a platter. He couldn't even form a government, let alone continue it without army's help. Army is course correcting.

100%

However IK has blinded / lied to the nation about the foreign conspiracy- has the letter been verified ? NSC findings discredited the bogus claim. IK is a fascist who will do anything to cling onto power. I actually fear for Pakistan because this man is taking us onto a dangerous path. What if he leads a campaign of civil disobedience against the status quo because this is what he is will do if we he doesn’t get his way. His party lost the vote of confidence so the decent thing to do would be to shut up and let the country recover from the economic disaster he brought to the country. The guy focused on stitching up his opponent’s rather than focusing on revitalising Pakistan. I also believe there will be great divisions and hatred within the army because a lot of servicemen and ex-service people are IK supporters.

Also the establishment has been bit by the snake it fed. They run DHA & Fauji Fertiliser and other organisations professionally and as a result they make a great profit. Why can’t they once and for all create a political framework whereby only honest people can be electables? Why are we subjected to the same crooks again and again? Frustrating seeing Pakistan regress further and further. Difficult to see Pakistan progressing at this stage.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Salient points (related to the attack and institutional failures):

The Establishment is severely disconnected from reality, and has no idea how to compete (or even communicate) in the modern world.

The "perpetrators will be punished" / "culprits will be brought to justice" line is tired, annoying, and meaningless at this point (I would add that it's just like "don't mistake our restraint for weakness," and "befitting response.")

The attention of agencies seems to be more on picking up young patriots in cities for criticizing the Establishment rather than deterring RAW (meaning they are more like local thugs than a professional agency that can raise the cost for RAW).

An agency gave false evidence to the Foreign Ministry that a previous attack on Chinese personnel was not a terrorist attack (and just an accident) when, in fact, it clearly was a terrorist attack; they also called our TV channels and news outlets to make sure that the fake story would be put out. This accident story was patently untrue, and the Chinese had ground evidence that it was a terrorist attack. They got angry and work on Dasu stopped for several months.

Have a listen in light of their inability to deter proxy warfare:

That's exactly what I say.
Pakistan establishment is not connected with people. Golden line.

 

[Olympus81]

Imran Khan improved Pakistan’s economy in comparison with PMLN/PPP.

Check the CAD, export, import, debt-GDP ratio, remittances.

Considering Covid, IPP deals left by PMLN, his team did okay.

Yes, it could have been better, as the Rs took a hit. And failed to attract high level investments from abroad.

At the moment, only solution is to go for free and fair elections and everyone should be agree to the outcome.

Hope Imran Khan has learnt from choosing electables and stubbornly sticking to Buzdar.

 

[Jango]

At this point neither the state institutions nor their leadership, nor the economy nor the people themselves possess anything other than hot air as execution capability.

And this is the root cause of the problem.

We simply cannot take as much of an aggressive stance as we need in the absence of a sound economic backbone. We will be forced to resort to these tactical measures only.

This is perhaps why our economy is strangled at every occassion by everyone and their mother (our own people included).

 

[R Wing]

If you have been in the “industry” then you must also look at the strategic implications of such “offensive” ops and the diplomatic and financial agency requirements to execute them effectively. “Chadar dekh kar paon phelana” is the term.
At this point neither the state institutions nor their leadership, nor the economy nor the people themselves possess anything other than hot air as execution capability.

I absolutely do. And you're absolutely right. But this excuse has been used to justify NON-ACTION. I can say with confidence (and deep sadness) that even tradecraft is not up to globally competitive standards. Lots of stuff gets caught very early. Focus on capacity building at least, if not on ops. But for that, you have to open yourself up to talent.

What do countries do when resources are limited and diplomatic consequences are high? Just sit defensively?

Or perhaps at least maximize the biggest resources still available: the talent of patriotic Pakistanis. Have they ever even tried to reverse the brain drain? Attracted the best and brightest to apply and serve? Engaged on college campuses? Created early talent identification programs? Israel se he seekh lo (from a few decades ago even, when blanket US support wasn't available to them). Look at how they think of and treat talent --- it's very different from the conception of our Establishment. Modernized recruitment? These things don't cost money, but they give you the most potent weapon of all in the intel game ---- creative, innovative, highly intelligent minds.

Eventually, you begin to develop sophisticated, deniable capacities. You begin to develop strategies that do damage but don't cross red-lines (salami-slicing/gradualism).

I want things to improve. Civilian brains can help change it, if they aren't threatened to allow them in.

Like you, I grieve, I cry for fallen comrades. Like you, I want to be able to be in a position where we can protect our people. InshaAllah, better sense will prevail. I don't lose hope. There are lots of good, even great, men in the forces. As you said, their sacrifices have been immense. The current criticism is unrelated to that.

 

[R Wing]

And this is the root cause of the problem.

We simply cannot take as much of an aggressive stance as we need in the absence of a sound economic backbone. We will be forced to resort to these tactical measures only.

This is perhaps why our economy is strangled at every occassion by everyone and their mother (our own people included).

We can use the time to focus on attracting and retaining Pakistan's best and brightest, internal cost-effective structural modernization, improving tradecraft, etc. A lot of this stuff costs little-to-no money. It's just about will, desire, and incentive.

I totally agree that we are not in an economic position to suddenly go on an all-out offensive. Nor will Western desires for this region (containing China, etc.) allow it.

BUT... this is a bit of a paradox. We will never be allowed to grow either, unless we find ways to deter our rivals, as their undeterred attacks and schemes will continue. We will remain enslaved.

 

[Tomcats]

The attention of agencies seems to be more on picking up young patriots in cities for criticizing the Establishment rather than deterring RAW (meaning they are more like local thugs than a professional agency that can raise the cost for RAW).

This is patently false considering the amount of pick ups of individuals pre and post incident, safe to say they have been after terrorist elements for a while. You don't just stop and close everything, in fact crackdowns have been increasing as the militant's escalate. You know, if he can bring up statistical evidence of his claims that would be great. Unless he's saying that the husband of the suicide bomber and a PU student possibly involved in terror activates are patriots since they were detained.

An agency gave false evidence to the Foreign Ministry that a previous attack on Chinese personnel was not a terrorist attack (and just an accident) when, in fact, it clearly was a terrorist attack; they also called our TV channels and news outlets to make sure that the fake story would be put out. This accident story was patently untrue, and the Chinese had ground evidence that it was a terrorist attack. They got angry and work on Dasu stopped for several months.

Cleansing the Foreign Ministry of guilt are we? Right, the Foreign Ministry was the one which chose to go by an INITIAL police report based on eyewitness testimony which is in most cases unreliable. They also went ahead with that report DESPITE another Federal Minister saying a hour or more earlier that they had hints it was a terrorist attack and condemned it, this was reported by Radio Pakistan and i have all the records for the timeline of the event. It was the Foreign Ministry's screw up full stop here.

 

[SQ8]

I absolutely do. And you're absolutely right. But this excuse has been used to justify NON-ACTION. I can say with confidence (and deep sadness) that even tradecraft is not up to globally competitive standards. Lots of stuff gets caught very early. Focus on capacity building at least, if not on ops. But for that, you have to open yourself up to talent.

What do countries do when resources are limited and diplomatic consequences are high? Just sit defensively?

Or perhaps at least maximize the biggest resources still available: the talent of patriotic Pakistanis. Have they ever even tried to reverse the brain drain? Attracted the best and brightest to apply and serve? Engaged on college campuses? Created early talent identification programs? Israel se he seekh lo (from a few decades ago even, when blanket US support wasn't available to them). Look at how they think of and treat talent --- it's very different from the conception of our Establishment. Modernized recruitment? These things don't cost money, but they give you the most potent weapon of all in the intel game ---- creative, innovative, highly intelligent minds.

Eventually, you begin to develop sophisticated, deniable capacities. You begin to develop strategies that do damage but don't cross red-lines (salami-slicing/gradualism).

I want things to improve. Civilian brains can help change it, if they aren't threatened to allow them in.

Like you, I grieve, I cry for fallen comrades. Like you, I want to be able to be in a position where we can protect our people. InshaAllah, better sense will prevail. I don't lose hope. There are lots of good, even great, men in the forces. As you said, their sacrifices have been immense. The current criticism is unrelated to that.

I don’t the Israeli example is that applicable because I work with them day in day out and their entire culture is different. First, they really are built upon Judaism as the common theme after which the racial aspects for most(other than some color issues) dies out. You have Israelis coming in from all across the globe to “settle” as part of their zionist ideals which means an Israeli can be slavic and an Israeli can be Brazilian. They have a whole learning program for hebrew revolving around this as well. This also means that they have highly educated people engaged in everything from farming to construction to laser research which creates a fairly “learn positive” society in general even with the extremist category of settlers(which don’t represent the 3rd or 4th generation at all) they have.

By comparison, there is no Pakistani. Period.
There are Punjabis, Pukhtoon, Sindhis which while learning Urdu from school dont strive to adopt it as their primary language with most educated ones going for English or some bastardized version of Urdu and English combined.

The poverty and lack of education elsewhere means that unless some school exists in a locality where kids are exposed to urdu throughout their life they will for the most part remain with their mother tongue and that common bridge doesn’t get built.

As to reversal of the brain drain - there is nothing to offer someone and even if they succeed the returnees turn sour within a year due to the prevailing attitudes of administration and work culture in Pakistani state institutions.
Finally, do they really want a reverse brain drain or people smarter than them?

I don’t generalize but when the Musharraf cabal brought Kargil plans to Benazir they were sent back packing because she was still intellectually equal or better to recognize the implications of a few men’s play for glory. The Sharif clan isn’t smart in anything other than corruption but that is what the top order likes.
“Our F-16s will handle anything “.. don’t question that statement because it will bruise the ego of a 2 star since he thinks himself the next sun tzu even if he couldn’t tell the difference between a SAMs search and height finding arrays.
Such characters are sprinkled all over the military and I can tell you this - I WILL NEVER work under such a person and neither will most abroad because you can think of giving up the higher creature comforts you get here but not the respect and understanding you get within western organza. Yet, these people end up as management in SPD, NESCOM and all other places in government where change is required.

To achieve what you ask is NOT going to happen from within the institutions nor from the state level. There really has to be a grass roots upheaval which is owned primarily by the educated class. PTI could have been that but unfortunately did not really have a smart leader if albeit charismatic.

Anything led by the poor is going to be an animal farm story with new faces replacing the old but with the same character. So the real chance only lies with the middle class promoting change but at this point the leadership issue prevails.