16 is the first order, there is a follow-on option for 60 for a total of 72 which will certainly be taken up. Licence production (unless done through a pvt entity) will just add delays to something that was needed 3+ years ago.
What many people don't realise is this- the requirement for RSH/LUH was/is
384 helicopters NOT 197. Simply the 384 helo order was SPLIT- 197 for the foreign RSH/LUH (Fennec/Ka-26) and 187 HAL LUH that is under development:
All this stating is that all 384 LUHs for the IA and IAF will be the HAL LUH which I have no problem with other than the timeline- the first lot of HAL LUH are 4-5 years away from entering service and even if HAL are able to produce 40+ helos a year it will take over a decade to replace all those vintage Cheetahs and Cheetaks in service.
The Cheetah and Chetak fleet is already in serious trouble TODAY.
This is the one bit of troubling news to come out of all this. I wish the new GoI had taken the pragmatic decision and fast-tracked the 197 foreign RSH deal so the first lot were in service within 18 months-2 years.
Edit, it seems that the news has been HIGHLY misleading- what is actually happening is that the 197 order will be opened up for Indian firms who tie up with foreign helo manufactures (like the LHD/LPD and arty deals).