Modi and Foreign policy

[illusion8]

Indian voters are in the process of electing it’s new leaders in the 2014 Indian General elections – slated to be India’s most expensive and the world’s biggest polls where an 810 million voters are eligible to vote. A new Government will take office in the end of May.

This new Government will have it’s hands full with numerous domestic issues like internal security, gender security, fuel prices, inflation, a slack industrial growth engine, corruption, scams, scandals, and address the growing need for more and better infrastructure.

It also needs to take into consideration long term goals as continued growth, employment availability, poverty elevation and correct a stream of diplomatic bungles and foreign policy faux pas.

The last part is of particular interest, where will the next Government’s foreign policy head towards?

There has been numerous voices heard throughout the world about the next potential Indian PM – some of them were adverse while some were positive. Going by most estimations and polls BJP and Narendra Modi is slated to be India’s next central party and the PM.

Though it’s too early to estimate but there surely will be some changes in effect.

Will we witness a paradigm shift in the next government’s foreign policy?

The BJP has been demanding a more muscular foreign policy, will we witness a different approach?

Will the next government’s FP based on economic interests or will it be security based or geo politically based? Or, will be witness a mixture of all three?

Whatever it may be, there overwhelmingly exists a clear possibility of witnessing a few radical changes in India’s FP and strategic affairs.


The US

Narendra Modi has already reached out to the US by asking to bury the thorny personal issue that has alienated him personally from the US. US on it’s part has reached out to Modi via it’s Ex Ambassador in India.

The point to note is that it was during a former BJP tenure under Vajpayee and his counterpart Bill Clinton was when we witnessed a shift in the Indo US relations.

Then there is the major diplomatic bungle wrt to Devyani Kobragade and it’s possible effects on the next phase of relations.

Even so, will we see a stronger Indo US relations in the coming years? Most likely, yes.

Modi believes in reaching out to all, he talks of the world being one family and any overtures from the US will be met with warmth from the BJP camp.


RUSSIA

Russia has it’s hands full right now in Ukraine and Syria and is increasingly looking at it’s friends to back it, and most likely, Modi will not disappoint Russia. The relations will see a continuation of collaborations in defense and energy. Successive Indian governments have not changed it’s very close policies with Russia, so there is no reason to believe that there will be any drastic change under the next government. There is a high possibility of Modi collaborating much more closely with Russia and China if what we consider what he has been saying all this while.


CHINA


Modi has made visits to China already and if we witness some tectonic changes in India’s FP it will be wrt China relationship. This relationship is the that we might give more attention to.


JAPAN

Japan is the other country that Modi has already made visits too, the close relations between India and Japan will get an added boost under the next Govt owing to Modi’s keen intersts in economic ties and Japan’s numerous investments in Gujarat and other Indian states. Along with Japan, Modi will be keen to have close ties with ASEAN countries.


EUROPE


Many European countries along with the US had criticized Modi before, but we also witnessed a reaching out from a number of European countries towards Modi in the last year or two. Modi is slated to have hot and cold relationship with the different countries of the EU.


AFRICA / SOUTH AMERICA


The past governments have made various forays in Africa and South America – the next government will most likely follow up on those initiatives and will also carry it forward.


SOUTH ASIA


Here comes the tricky and the sticky part.

1. Pakistan: Relations have gone nowhere owing to government changes in Pakistan and then now the elections and the build up to it in India, will the relations take off from where the last BJP Pakistan relations ended? Or will we see some changes in bilateral ties is hard to estimate. As has always been the case, any major terrorist incident in India or on the LOC will upset any build up in the ties. The MFN status is still on the burner, trade ties have been sputtering along at a dead pace, and then we have the deal breaking issue of Afghanistan and both the countries interests in it.

1. Bangladesh: The illegal immigration issue is a major concern for the BJP, will the Indo Bangla ties see changes because of it? There are other sticky issues that will probably witness ups and downs too.

1. Nepal: Ashok Singhal has called for Nepal to become a Hindu nation under BJP, he is counting on Modi coming at the center to affect this change.

1. Sri Lanka: The Tamil issue and the Human Rights issue will take center stage in the Indo SL relations, but indications are that it will be smooth sailing.

1. Bhutan / Maldives / Burma: There most likely wouldn’t be any major shift in FP with regards to these countries.

Overall, we can expect some radical changes in Foreign policy brought about by BJP and Modi.

 

[SrNair]

Indian voters are in the process of electing it’s new leaders in the 2014 Indian General elections – slated to be India’s most expensive and the world’s biggest polls where an 810 million voters are eligible to vote. A new Government will take office in the end of May.

This new Government will have it’s hands full with numerous domestic issues like internal security, gender security, fuel prices, inflation, a slack industrial growth engine, corruption, scams, scandals, and address the growing need for more and better infrastructure.

It also needs to take into consideration long term goals as continued growth, employment availability, poverty elevation and correct a stream of diplomatic bungles and foreign policy faux pas.

The last part is of particular interest, where will the next Government’s foreign policy head towards?

There has been numerous voices heard throughout the world about the next potential Indian PM – some of them were adverse while some were positive. Going by most estimations and polls BJP and Narendra Modi is slated to be India’s next central party and the PM.

Though it’s too early to estimate but there surely will be some changes in effect.

Will we witness a paradigm shift in the next government’s foreign policy?

The BJP has been demanding a more muscular foreign policy, will we witness a different approach?

Will the next government’s FP based on economic interests or will it be security based or geo politically based? Or, will be witness a mixture of all three?

Whatever it may be, there overwhelmingly exists a clear possibility of witnessing a few radical changes in India’s FP and strategic affairs.


The US

Narendra Modi has already reached out to the US by asking to bury the thorny personal issue that has alienated him personally from the US. US on it’s part has reached out to Modi via it’s Ex Ambassador in India.

The point to note is that it was during a former BJP tenure under Vajpayee and his counterpart Bill Clinton was when we witnessed a shift in the Indo US relations.

Then there is the major diplomatic bungle wrt to Devyani Kobragade and it’s possible effects on the next phase of relations.

Even so, will we see a stronger Indo US relations in the coming years? Most likely, yes.

Modi believes in reaching out to all, he talks of the world being one family and any overtures from the US will be met with warmth from the BJP camp.


RUSSIA

Russia has it’s hands full right now in Ukraine and Syria and is increasingly looking at it’s friends to back it, and most likely, Modi will not disappoint Russia. The relations will see a continuation of collaborations in defense and energy. Successive Indian governments have not changed it’s very close policies with Russia, so there is no reason to believe that there will be any drastic change under the next government. There is a high possibility of Modi collaborating much more closely with Russia and China if what we consider what he has been saying all this while.


CHINA


Modi has made visits to China already and if we witness some tectonic changes in India’s FP it will be wrt China relationship. This relationship is the that we might give more attention to.


JAPAN

Japan is the other country that Modi has already made visits too, the close relations between India and Japan will get an added boost under the next Govt owing to Modi’s keen intersts in economic ties and Japan’s numerous investments in Gujarat and other Indian states. Along with Japan, Modi will be keen to have close ties with ASEAN countries.


EUROPE


Many European countries along with the US had criticized Modi before, but we also witnessed a reaching out from a number of European countries towards Modi in the last year or two. Modi is slated to have hot and cold relationship with the different countries of the EU.


AFRICA / SOUTH AMERICA


The past governments have made various forays in Africa and South America – the next government will most likely follow up on those initiatives and will also carry it forward.


SOUTH ASIA


Here comes the tricky and the sticky part.

1. Pakistan: Relations have gone nowhere owing to government changes in Pakistan and then now the elections and the build up to it in India, will the relations take off from where the last BJP Pakistan relations ended? Or will we see some changes in bilateral ties is hard to estimate. As has always been the case, any major terrorist incident in India or on the LOC will upset any build up in the ties. The MFN status is still on the burner, trade ties have been sputtering along at a dead pace, and then we have the deal breaking issue of Afghanistan and both the countries interests in it.

1. Bangladesh: The illegal immigration issue is a major concern for the BJP, will the Indo Bangla ties see changes because of it? There are other sticky issues that will probably witness ups and downs too.

1. Nepal: Ashok Singhal has called for Nepal to become a Hindu nation under BJP, he is counting on Modi coming at the center to affect this change.

1. Sri Lanka: The Tamil issue and the Human Rights issue will take center stage in the Indo SL relations, but indications are that it will be smooth sailing.

1. Bhutan / Maldives / Burma: There most likely wouldn’t be any major shift in FP with regards to these countries.

Overall, we can expect some radical changes in Foreign policy brought about by BJP and Modi.

So it will be like this .No major changes in our Foreign policy

 

[Tshering22]

I think that with Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal, there will be tectonic changes. Myanmar is looking at a surface connectivity from India and once the Modi government clears infrastructure development of roads and railways into Burma through Thailand, we will be in for a massive overhaul in relations.

 

[illusion8]

I think that with Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal, there will be tectonic changes. Myanmar is looking at a surface connectivity from India and once the Modi government clears infrastructure development of roads and railways into Burma through Thailand, we will be in for a massive overhaul in relations.

Yeah thanks I missed that bit - the new silk route.

 

[baajey]

I think that with Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal, there will be tectonic changes. Myanmar is looking at a surface connectivity from India and once the Modi government clears infrastructure development of roads and railways into Burma through Thailand, we will be in for a massive overhaul in relations.

hopefully, the North East, can then enjoy the Center's attention.

 

[nair]

@illusion8 It was a very good attempt....

Let us assume that modi is going to be the PM ...... the chances are that he will not have absolute majority.....

1) the way things are right now, Mamta and Amma are going to be getting high numbers of seats in their respective states.
2) If Modi has to depend on either or both of them then they will practically decide the foreign policy when it comes to bengladesh and srilanka.
3) US will not find it easy to accept modi, and Modi already had a bad experience with them on the visa row.... It will be very difficult for both US govt and GOI to handle.... to make things worse the current relationship is at its lowest for along time...
4) EU may not find it as difficult as US when it comes to Modi... .But we will have to wait and watch....
5) You are right on Pakistan..... It is difficult to read or judge.... But from Pakistan point of view they may not be as comfortable as vajpayee or MMS while dealing with modi.
6) Russia You are right on the money....
6) China the relationship is going to be smoother since he already have a good relationship with them.... But it depends on how he handles stapled visa and those tent issues..... Which will put him in tight spot.....

One thing we should all remember, It is very easy to be in Opposition.... all you need to do is criticise the government and BJP has criticised every move of congress (and congress gave enough opportunity).... But it will not be as easy once you step in to power.... and the kind of hype created around Modi....the expectations are like sachin walking to pitch in a match with pakistan when india is down 2 wickets for 10 runs....

 

[illusion8]

@illusion8 It was a very good attempt....

Let us assume that modi is going to be the PM ...... the chances are that he will not have absolute majority.....

1) the way things are right now, Mamta and Amma are going to be getting high numbers of seats in their respective states.
2) If Modi has to depend on either or both of them the will practically decide the foreign policy when it comes to bengladesh and srilanka.
3) US will not find it easy to accept modi, and Modi already had a bad experience with them on the visa row.... It will be very difficult for both US govt and GOI to handle.... to make things worse the current relationship is at its lowest for along time...
4) EU may not find it as difficult as US when it comes to Modi... .But we will have to wait and watch....
5) You are right on Pakistan..... It is difficult to read or judge.... But from Pakistan point of view they may not be as comfortable as vajpayee or MMS while dealing with modi.
6) Russia You are right on the money....
6) China the relationship is going to be smoother since he already have a good relationship with them.... But it depends on how he handles stapled visa and those tent issues..... Which will put him in tight spot.....

One thing we should all remember, It is very easy to be in Opposition.... all you need to do is criticise the government and BJP has criticised every move of congress (and congress gave enough opportunity).... But it will not be as easy once you step in to power.... and the kind of hype created around Modi....the expectations are like sachin walking to pitch in a match with pakistan when india is down 2 wickets for 10 runs....

Nice points.

The pre polls do indicate an absolute majority though.

I agree on the SL and BD bit - the BD bit will be sticky because of the illegal immigration bit.
US plays for its own self interests - if they put some weight on Indo US relations they will have to take the first steps.

 

[--,-'{@]

Keep West at arms length. Time to get closer to our neighbours. bring stability in the region.

Improve trade relations and improve the damaged ones (BD & Sl). Pakistan is an exception as they will NEVER give up on Kashmir issue. Sorry to say that. Hope some fine day we get along if not we are destined to fight till last man standing. And that's what West is looking for unstable region so that they can sell their downgraded weapons with strings attached. They sell arms to both pakistan and India, we both countries ignore the divide and rule policy of White's.

 

[enigma123]

Indian voters are in the process of electing it’s new leaders in the 2014 Indian General elections – slated to be India’s most expensive and the world’s biggest polls where an 810 million voters are eligible to vote. A new Government will take office in the end of May.

This new Government will have it’s hands full with numerous domestic issues like internal security, gender security, fuel prices, inflation, a slack industrial growth engine, corruption, scams, scandals, and address the growing need for more and better infrastructure.

It also needs to take into consideration long term goals as continued growth, employment availability, poverty elevation and correct a stream of diplomatic bungles and foreign policy faux pas.

The last part is of particular interest, where will the next Government’s foreign policy head towards?

There has been numerous voices heard throughout the world about the next potential Indian PM – some of them were adverse while some were positive. Going by most estimations and polls BJP and Narendra Modi is slated to be India’s next central party and the PM.

Though it’s too early to estimate but there surely will be some changes in effect.

Will we witness a paradigm shift in the next government’s foreign policy?

The BJP has been demanding a more muscular foreign policy, will we witness a different approach?

Will the next government’s FP based on economic interests or will it be security based or geo politically based? Or, will be witness a mixture of all three?

Whatever it may be, there overwhelmingly exists a clear possibility of witnessing a few radical changes in India’s FP and strategic affairs.


The US

Narendra Modi has already reached out to the US by asking to bury the thorny personal issue that has alienated him personally from the US. US on it’s part has reached out to Modi via it’s Ex Ambassador in India.

The point to note is that it was during a former BJP tenure under Vajpayee and his counterpart Bill Clinton was when we witnessed a shift in the Indo US relations.

Then there is the major diplomatic bungle wrt to Devyani Kobragade and it’s possible effects on the next phase of relations.

Even so, will we see a stronger Indo US relations in the coming years? Most likely, yes.

Modi believes in reaching out to all, he talks of the world being one family and any overtures from the US will be met with warmth from the BJP camp.


RUSSIA

Russia has it’s hands full right now in Ukraine and Syria and is increasingly looking at it’s friends to back it, and most likely, Modi will not disappoint Russia. The relations will see a continuation of collaborations in defense and energy. Successive Indian governments have not changed it’s very close policies with Russia, so there is no reason to believe that there will be any drastic change under the next government. There is a high possibility of Modi collaborating much more closely with Russia and China if what we consider what he has been saying all this while.


CHINA


Modi has made visits to China already and if we witness some tectonic changes in India’s FP it will be wrt China relationship. This relationship is the that we might give more attention to.


JAPAN

Japan is the other country that Modi has already made visits too, the close relations between India and Japan will get an added boost under the next Govt owing to Modi’s keen intersts in economic ties and Japan’s numerous investments in Gujarat and other Indian states. Along with Japan, Modi will be keen to have close ties with ASEAN countries.


EUROPE


Many European countries along with the US had criticized Modi before, but we also witnessed a reaching out from a number of European countries towards Modi in the last year or two. Modi is slated to have hot and cold relationship with the different countries of the EU.


AFRICA / SOUTH AMERICA


The past governments have made various forays in Africa and South America – the next government will most likely follow up on those initiatives and will also carry it forward.


SOUTH ASIA


Here comes the tricky and the sticky part.

1. Pakistan: Relations have gone nowhere owing to government changes in Pakistan and then now the elections and the build up to it in India, will the relations take off from where the last BJP Pakistan relations ended? Or will we see some changes in bilateral ties is hard to estimate. As has always been the case, any major terrorist incident in India or on the LOC will upset any build up in the ties. The MFN status is still on the burner, trade ties have been sputtering along at a dead pace, and then we have the deal breaking issue of Afghanistan and both the countries interests in it.

1. Bangladesh: The illegal immigration issue is a major concern for the BJP, will the Indo Bangla ties see changes because of it? There are other sticky issues that will probably witness ups and downs too.

1. Nepal: Ashok Singhal has called for Nepal to become a Hindu nation under BJP, he is counting on Modi coming at the center to affect this change.

1. Sri Lanka: The Tamil issue and the Human Rights issue will take center stage in the Indo SL relations, but indications are that it will be smooth sailing.

1. Bhutan / Maldives / Burma: There most likely wouldn’t be any major shift in FP with regards to these countries.

Overall, we can expect some radical changes in Foreign policy brought about by BJP and Modi.

There is a possibility of a change in rhetoric if Modi is to be elected the PM of India. Let me speak on behalf of Nepal. Given the change in the general attitudes towards a religious state, Nepal is very unlikely to revert back to a Hindu state. We've taken the step towards secularism, and in my opinion, a majority of the people would want such an arrangement. I personally would not want to live in a Hindu state. Our future is in secularism, as our population is very diverse (despite being overwhelmingly Hindu). Despite strong rhetoric from the BJP, change in Nepal's secular state is unlikely. I think the transition from the monarchy has opened up avenues for change and the general populace seems to be support that change positively.

 

[illusion8]

There is a possibility of a change in rhetoric if Modi is to be elected the PM of India. Let me speak on behalf of Nepal. Given the change in the general attitudes towards a religious state, Nepal is very unlikely to revert back to a Hindu state. We've taken the step towards secularism, and in my opinion, a majority of the people would want such an arrangement. I personally would not want to live in a Hindu state. Our future is in secularism, as our population is very diverse (despite being overwhelmingly Hindu). Despite strong rhetoric from the BJP, change in Nepal's secular state is unlikely. I think the transition from the monarchy has opened up avenues for change and the general populace seems to be support that change positively.

I agree - it tantamount's to getting involved in the internal matters of a sovereign state, Ashok Singhal is trying his best to do that and has support in Nepal too.

As I said BJP might come up with some radical FP - and I count involvement in Nepal as one of them.

 

[enigma123]

I agree - it tantamount's to getting involved in the internal matters of a sovereign state, Ashok Singhal is trying his best to do that and has support in Nepal too.

As I said BJP might come up with some radical FP - and I count involvement in Nepal as one of them.

Any government that comes to power in India will involve itself in Nepal due to obvious geostrategic considerations. I just hope that the BJP does not politicize Hinduism in Nepal the way it has in India. So far, we've warded off any attempts at religious politics and I hope it remains that way.

 

[illusion8]

Any government that comes to power in India will involve itself in Nepal due to obvious geostrategic considerations. I just hope that the BJP does not politicize Hinduism in Nepal the way it has in India. So far, we've warded off any attempts at religious politics and I hope it remains that way.

Geo politics is not run on one man's whims, reverting Nepal back to a Hindu nation is based on Ashok Singhal's effort. His initial effort was not met with any support even from BJP, his hope is that a Modi government will back him, which probably I doubt.

 

[enigma123]

Geo politics is not run on one man's whims, reverting Nepal back to a Hindu nation is based on Ashok Singhal's effort. His initial effort was not met with any support even from BJP, his hope is that a Modi government will back him, which probably I doubt.

Exactly! Once in office, the BJP (if it wins the elections), will have its hands full!