Any advance in J&K will spread to IB at some point and a total war will begin. PA is getting tanks, APCs and SP Arty etc. These machines are used in plains and desert, maybe hills to some extent.
PA doesnt have required man power to take J&K, not even the resources. So if the conflict is started in Kashmir and J&K cannot be taken while a total war starts, whats the end result ? You dont get J&K, you lose territory somewhere else and risk a nuclear war.
We havn't tried taking J&K even once at national level,correct me if i am wrong when did Pakistan ever drew a plan engaging all vectors of state for this single task?Never
If the numbers are not there, then compensation is mobility and fire power. This concept is not new, PA already uses this concept in infantry regiments (LATs).
It's going to be battle uphill in hills, we need tons of small equipment and manpower.After Pakistan breaks IA at LOC if everything goes according to plan,it would be slow,bitter and bloody fight involving small arms,rpg's,AA guns,mortars and pack howitzers.
There could be a way, the helicopter use of Vietnam war era. 100's of transport helicopters, those which can operate at night and in adverse weather in mountain regions at high altitudes. That would require complete cooperation from PAF - to provide air cover, carry mountain strikes and conduct DEAD Ops. There are hardly any air assault formations else than SF. Kargil was a covert Ops till its compromise, and lacked PAF support. This one could be conventional warfare on peaks and covert Ops in urban streets of J&K, both amalgamated into each other.
I have studied all of these options wrp to J&k;
1-Heliborne ops in first phase are out of question,SAM's,AA guns and shoulder fired missiles would be major obstruction on top of that it requires huge no of rotary assets.
2-Kargil was a missed opportunity,was started without proper buildup and ended in humiliation for us.It would have been started if GHQ was able to make Bharati buildup at IB akin to signing of death warrant for IA troops in siachen.
3-Days of doing a covert ops in J&K are long gone,locals won't trust this time and if they even do, it won't impact anything except tying up 1 or 2 inf div's of IA.
So this opens the topic of AIrborne and Air assault Ops in PA. Not from SSG like in COIN Ops but a Brigade level or Divisional level Ops from Air Assault Infantry. This would mean raising new formations. 30 LIDs you said ? I don't know. 10, 20 or 30. How much progress can be made before India fires first CM or India assaults on IB or before Uncle SAM starts screaming.
Only a Divisional level Paradrop in valley would make difference but there is more into that;
0-Our mission is to capture valley.
1-It would require complete air superiority over J&k and highly contested airspace over rest of area that too in favour of PAF.
2-SEAD/DEAD ops by PAF.
Both 1 & 2 require atleast double the amount of current PAF assets.
3-Huge transport fleet both tact and strat.
4-A good amount of launching bases from where troops and equipment can be uplifted and dropped at DLZ's.
5-A determined three pronged attack from Bagh for capturing Baramullah,Poonch, Gulmarg and establishing rendezvous with elements of paradrop.
5-That ops has to be completed in less than 24 hours.
For pulling all this off we need balls of steel and $$$.
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