I think current Chinese psyche is surrounding threat based, considering that China is surrounded by all formidable opponents, some former tormentors during Century of humiliation.
This is a common misconception, Americans thoroughly analyze nations and are well aware being a global power, some of the declassified CIA documents can vindicate what i said.
Agree!
Chinese perception of future world remains a mystery however a thumb rule when it comes to global powers is when capability is there, hegemonic intentions follow by.
"surrounding threat based"? That could be true today with US along with her allies trying to contain China, but not historically. Traditionally the threat almost always come only from the Northern Nomadic tribe. China is surrounded geographically with the Roof of the world to the south west, desert and highland to the west and north west. The north is Siberian tundra. The east is the pacific and south is tropical indochina and the south china sea. That is why China is comparatively non-aggressive because they have conquer where ever is consider valuable to them since thousand of year ago. Unlike for example, the Roman, the Chinese can not gain much from conquering other. War for Chinese most of the time means pain without gain. And they got so use to that idea that they do not go conquering even if later technology allows them to do so.
Wikipedia has the following to say about the history of "century of humiliation"
Century of humiliation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The beginning of the century is usually dated to the mid-19th century, on the eve of the First Opium War[2] and the widespread addiction and political unraveling of China that followed.[3]
Other major events cited as part of the Century of humiliation are, the unequal treaties of Whampoa and Aigun, the Taiping Rebellion, the Second Opium War and the sacking of the Old Summer Palace, the Sino-French War, the First Sino-Japanese War, and the British invasion of Tibet.[4] In this period, China lost all the wars it fought and had to give major concessions to the great powers in the subsequent treaties.[5]
It continued into the 20th century with the Twenty-One Demands by Japan during World War I and the Second Sino-Japanese War during World War II.
It is generally considered to have ended with the expulsion of foreign powers from mainland China after World War II,[6] and the establishment of the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. Some commentators consider the century to have concluded with the reunification of Hong Kong and Macau with the PRC, ending foreign occupation of Chinese soil.[7] Others go further to say that the century will not end until Taiwan is reunified with the mainland.[8] Also note that some foreign "humiliations", such as the Amur Annexation, have not been undone, but they have been generally accepted by the Chinese people.
China's sovereignty was trampled upon, her honor was being insulted over and over again. And that is why China is so sensitive about her sovereignty.
About surrounded by formidable opponents, China is nowadays accused by some of bullying. But if you go by past history, you would discover that China never pick on the little guy, but always pick to fight with the big boy with overinflated ego. So no, China do not see neighbor countries as threat. China has a normal diplomatic relation and actively trade with all of them.
On the other hand, although China do not consider neighbor countries as threat, China however do not have much faith in the current world order. China do not feel safe. Given China past history of being demonized, sanctioned, embargoed. China feels that she have tried her very best and still they are always being accused of this and that, always feel misunderstood, unfairly treated by world opinion, unfairly treated in international order, unfairly hampered in their right to reach for glory.
I agree with you that there are American elite after WWII that are global in outlook. But they are only a very small minority.
I agree that nobody has a crystal ball that can tells what the future hold.
But your premise that capability would necessitate hegemonic intention is not proven by China past history. China did not conquer/annex SEA even though China has the capability to do so. China did sometime dictate term to neighbor country in a hegemonic manner but those are few and far in between. Most of the time, China just leave others alone.
One of the things that I think the world should learn is that China is different, it operate by a different mindset due to her unique history.
And if you want to know what is Chinese psyche today. Most Chinese today, I think, do not considered the Century of humiliation over. China honor was insulted and we want it restore. For the past century, million of Chinese has dedicated and committed lifetime and millions would continue to follow, China would not rest until that goal was attained. This psyche is best reflected by Hu Jintao's national rejuvenation. It is hard to explain what China quest for national rejuvenation is, but it is the dream that has driven China for the last century. It is mainly a quest for self determination, that China do not depends on other for our security, that China would be respected and fairly treated in the world order. On the surface, that quest seem no difference from aspiration of most other nation, but Chinese feels it much stronger because of what they felt about past history.
