Shamsuddin Ahmed
Tiny Maldives has demonstrated extraordinary courage to defy the regional power India. President Yameen Abdulla refused to yield to the pressure mounted by India to release Mohammad Nasheed, former president of Maldives and trusted friend of Delhi. Instead, Nasheed was dragged to the court like an ordinary accused, to face trial on terrorism charges. If the charges are proved, he may be barred from contesting any election to the frustration of India which was hopeful of bringing back Nasheed to power in the next presidential contest due in 2018.
Embarrassed, India has cancelled the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Maldives scheduled for March 15. An official announcement in Male said Indian government informed the visit of Narendra Modi was cancelled because the local environment is not conducive’. Indian foreign office in Delhi said our concerns have not been heeded, and in this situation it makes little sense for the Prime Minister to pay an official visit to Maldives.
Male Ignores Delhi’s warning
The truth is it is only for Nasheed that Modi cancelled the visit. Maldives President Yameen Abdulla was aware of it and he is willing to absorb the consequences of annoying Delhi, whatever those may be.
It is difficult to believe that Maldives will not go by the demand of India. But this is precisely what has happened. This is the bolt from the blue for the Indian government. Maldives is an eye opener for all the neighbours of India who have been unwillingly accepting political and economic domination of the Big Brother.
A tourist paradise and an Islamic state, Maldives is comprised of more than a thousand dotted islands with a population of barely 3,50,000. The country has long been under political and economic domination of India, until the fall of Mohammad Nasheed in a silent coup early 2012. The successive governments of Dr Mohammad Waheed and the newly elected President Mohammed Yameen developed close ties with China. It became a partner of China’s Maritime Silk Road. Chinese President Xi Jinjping visited Maldives and offered generous assistance for infrastructure development. President Yameen’s relationship with China annoyed India. Delhi alleged that China is set to build a military base in a southernmost island of Maldives as part of its String of Pearls. The allegation was refuted by both Beijing and Male.
India’s concern over the arrest of Nasheed and demand for his release was rejected by Maldives saying “no imperialist power can dictate how to run its domestic affairs.” President Yameen on Sunday warned the opposition Maldives Democritic Party (MDP) of Nasheed against political unrest with external assistance. “Foreigners will not be allowed to meddle in domestic affairs,” he told function slamming MDP leaders seeking foreign interference.
Indian diplomacy failed
It can be safely deduced that China and Pakistan were behind the bold and firm stand taken by poor Malides. Without a concrete commitment from Beijing, there is no way Maldives has challenged India the way it has done. Otherwise, India would have, by now, taken stern action which Maldives could not resist.
There is another factor that might have restrained India from taking the risk of directly interfering in Maldives. India itself is having serious internal security problem - Maoist insurgency in central India and separatist grave threat to the internal security of the country. Under the situation India is unlikely to take adventurous venture in any country enjoying genuine friendly ties with China.
The First Post of India wrote on March 8 that Narendra Modi’s cancellation of Maldives visit in many ways is a danger signal for India. It conveys a chilling fact that the Maldivian government has opted for taking on India rather than going for the option of releasing Nasheed and keeping India in good humour. The Modi government must understand that the Yameen government has raised the stakes for India by what many Indians would call intransigence.
This also reflected failure of Indian diplomacy. For almost a fortnight Delhi waited for release of Nasheed who was arrested on February 22. But Male did not oblige. The Indian diplomacy in Maldives has failed to melt the ice. In other words, India has been unable to engineer a breakthrough in the past fortnight. Obviously, India tried every trick in the book of diplomacy with the Yameen government. But, it looks like that nothing was to be changed and the Maldivian government’s actions as well as intentions were cast in stone.
The real test for India awaits now. India’s diplomatic see-saw vis a vis Maldives starts now. Indian analysts believe the Maldivian diplomatic chessboard is easier to conquer than using the muscle power. Needless to say, whatever overt or covert steps the Indian government decides to take in Maldives, China should be at the centre of all such forthcoming strategies of Delhi.
Holiday
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