Making Gripen fighters in India not favoured by IAF

[SrNair]

finally IAF understanding advantage of having of Tejas.

IAF is also partially responsible for the delaying of LCA .They constantly changed Air Staff requirements .
But that being said ,they are now totally proud about their own baby ,their own product LCA .IAF believes in deadly combo of various world class weapons .LCA open architecture allows them to do that .They can integrate anything in that little plane .
IAF also knows ,they are large AF ,potentially a force that can rule a good part of Asia .But for a real strength they need an indigenous industry.LCA is now a success .
Saab and LM will do whatever they want to block the fully deployment of LCA .Because it will hurt their products .
In here LM only need to worry until 2020 .Saab would be the real loser .GE will get a lots of engine deal .Not that bad for Americans .

 

[JohnyD]

We need AESA and Engine tech..dont think Saab can provide either of them!

 

[Abingdonboy]

Looks like we are heading for a plan of 57-60 squadrons by 2030 looking at such numbers.

Very ambitious bro, when today the IAF is hovering at around 30 SQNs and 8-10 of them will be gone by 2021 and by 2030 another 5-6 (M2K, some Jags and MiG-29UPG). IF true, by 2030 the IAF will have transformed into an almost brand new air force in the span of just 15 years which will be truly remarkable.

I know that the GoI is going to raise the sanctioned strength to 45 by 2022 and that the plan was alway to get 60 in the long term (perhaps 2035 I had thought) but if it can be done by 2030 I will be more than a little surprised.

+ @PARIKRAMA it seems (gasp) that our logic is starting to play out- we said the IAF would never go for the Gripen, Dassualt is pitching to the IN, MII is taking off for the Rafale and the support for the LCA is being shored up.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Very ambitious bro, when today the IAF is hovering at around 30 SQNs and 8-10 of them will be gone by 2021 and by 2030 another 5-6 (M2K, some Jags and MiG-29UPG). IF true, by 2030 the IAF will have transformed into an almost brand new air force in the span of just 15 years which will be truly remarkable.

I know that the GoI is going to raise the sanctioned strength to 45 by 2022 and that the plan was alway to get 60 in the long term (perhaps 2035 I had thought) but if it can be done by 2030 I will be more than a little surprised.

+ @PARIKRAMA it seems (gasp) that our logic is starting to play out- we said the IAF would never go for the Gripen, Dassualt is pitching to the IN, MII is taking off for the Rafale and the support for the LCA is being shored up.

We were on the money bcz we always said that practically there wont be any threat to Tejas program via import route.. You remember the discussion where we talked about Tejas being given the name by A B Vajpayee from NDA government and this NDA government wont do anything to be labelled as anti Indigenous products in any manner.

It is vital for us that we firm up the Rafale orders as we need to complete the LCA Naval variant work.. essentially that will pave way for AMCA naval variant using success of naval LCA platform.

On the other side, the only risk for Tejas that still exist is from inside our own country for our failure or inability to execute such a golden opportunity and mandate..

Assuming we reach a stage where we can continuously churn out say 16 jets for 6 years and ramp it up to say 24 jets a year, the calculations seems right on the money .. see here

2018-23 - 6 years - 16 x 6 = 96 jets
2024-30 - 7 years - 24 x 7 = 168 jets
-------------------------------------------------
2018-30 - 13 years ----- 264 jets

On top some 20 Mk1 and few more (4) MK1a so 264+24 = 288 jets or 18 squdrons

Thus you see its possible that we can get 18 light squadrons this way by 2030. The composition within 18 by MK1, MK1A and Mk2 can be worked out later of course.

Coupled with 19.5 sqd (312) MKI and ~3.25 sqd (60 jets)FGFA/PAKFA we get 18+19.5+3.25 = 40.75

Assume 36 rafales sureshot then 2.25 sq + above 40.75 = 43 sqds

Assuming everything else is retired by 2030 so we have 43 sqds and medium category Rafale MII has a total of 14 years approx for MII. Even in worst case, we will get minimum 10 squadron plus for medium category production at 16 jets/year.

That should put us closer to 54 sqds..

If we raise it closer to 24 jets a year then we get closer to 58 odd squadrons..all by 2030

So you see we can do it, just focus on IMPLEMENTATION without DELAYS.. thats the focus area

 

[Abingdonboy]

We were on the money bcz we always said that practically there wont be any threat to Tejas program via import route.. You remember the discussion where we talked about Tejas being given the name by A B Vajpayee from NDA government and this NDA government wont do anything to be labelled as anti Indigenous products in any manner.

It is vital for us that we firm up the Rafale orders as we need to complete the LCA Naval variant work.. essentially that will pave way for AMCA naval variant using success of naval LCA platform.

On the other side, the only risk for Tejas that still exist is from inside our own country for our failure or inability to execute such a golden opportunity and mandate..

Assuming we reach a stage where we can continuously churn out say 16 jets for 6 years and ramp it up to say 24 jets a year, the calculations seems right on the money .. see here

2018-23 - 6 years - 16 x 6 = 96 jets
2024-30 - 7 years - 24 x 7 = 168 jets
-------------------------------------------------
2018-30 - 13 years ----- 264 jets

On top some 20 Mk1 and few more (4) MK1a so 264+24 = 288 jets or 18 squdrons

Thus you see its possible that we can get 18 light squadrons this way by 2030. The composition within 18 by MK1, MK1A and Mk2 can be worked out later of course.

Coupled with 19.5 sqd (312) MKI and ~3.25 sqd (60 jets)FGFA/PAKFA we get 18+19.5+3.25 = 40.75

Assume 36 rafales sureshot then 2.25 sq + above 40.75 = 43 sqds

Assuming everything else is retired by 2030 so we have 43 sqds and medium category Rafale MII has a total of 14 years approx for MII. Even in worst case, we will get minimum 10 squadron plus for medium category production at 16 jets/year.

That should put us closer to 54 sqds..

If we raise it closer to 24 jets a year then we get closer to 58 odd squadrons..all by 2030

So you see we can do it, just focus on IMPLEMENTATION without DELAYS.. thats the focus area

Very very nicely done analysis as always bro but what worries me is that, aside from the MKIs, the rest of the plans are merely that- plans, they are not reality. I have said it before, this is not a problem that will get sorted out simply by the passage of time, some invasive and innovative action needs to be taken LAST YEAR, forget about today. Every month the MoD lets slip by is simply compounding the issues the IAF will face. At a time when the IAF needs to be seriosuyl looking at how they will induct 150+ Rafales, the DM keeps going on about a measly 36 and playing all these stupid games with LM, Boeing and SAAB.

All I take from this is the man hasn't got his priorities straight, the situation is a crisis and he is kicking it back entertaining the CEO of LM?

I would at least appreciate if he conveyed that he had a firm grasp on this situation but his wishey washey statements that all seem to contradict each other paint an image of the village idiot who is out of his depth, out of touch and incompetent frankly.

Some member made a very good point- why isn't the MoD being run like Roads, Railways, power or coal? These are ministries with FAR larger resources than the MoD and yet are running far more efficently and producing massive tanigble progress. Parrikar has failed to meet every single target he has set himself and what exactly is so unique in the MoD that makes this so? The railways employs more people than the IA, all ministries have to deal with babus and such. You can't even excuse Parrikar for being new to the job, he has been in office for more than a year now (much more than that) but little seems to have changed except he has created a lot of needless controversy and confusion. Deals aren't being signed, funds are still going unspent, Pakistan isn't being put in its place etc etc


As such, I want to know when this roadmap will become clear, as of today the IAF won't even have 30 fighter SQNs by 2022, this is a fact. Everything else is, at best, fanboy hopes and dreams simply because no effort seems to be put in to address the emergency- typical Indian mindset of being constantly reactive and never proactive (grounding planes after crashes begin but not phasing them out earlier when they were well past their orginal lifespan, conducting surgical strike operations in Mynamar, not acting on actionable inteligence before they hit an army convoy etc etc).

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Janab are you sure for Grippen NG

which JF-17 Block ?? == Grippen NG and could you post the link of Quwa page which claims that.

Try to learn how to spell "Gripen"...

 

[knight11]

Try to learn how to spell "Gripen"...

Thanks, I owe to all my extra mouth.