Loadshedding to end-2017 PM ..After failing in past a new promise .. LOL

[S.U.R.B.]

On the scale of development (in Pakistan) , he's a Metro away from fulfilling his promise.

 

[Rank]

Tajarba Kaar team L hogaye hey ******* war gaya hey ganjay ka tajarba... PMLN become PMLF (Pakistan Muslim League Future) lol

 

[Kolachi Punjabi]

Haha there's Noway this liar is going to achieve this, has he detailed a plan on how to eradicate the power crisis? I don't think so, he's just going to be a third time failure, which is the legacy of Noon league

Bijli nhn hui to metro par beth jana!

A new metro, coming near you!

And that's only in one province

 

[Adecypher]

Read the report: Putting Power Back on Track: A Sustainable Resolution to the Energy Crises (April 2015).

It gives you an insight on the dynamics of Power Crises issue in Pakistan and also gives you some pointers to resolve this issue.

The recommendations as suggested by the working group:

I sincerely hope GOP is following a road map to end-load-shedding; and soon realize that "Metros" are not the immediate need of the hour...

 

[Major Sam]

So how will this end loadshedding when the this is the likely demand: "During a period stretching from 2014 into 2015, peak demand was 20,800 MW. This figure is expected to rise to nearly 32,000 MW by 2019. In effect, in just four years, demand could exceed, by nearly 10,000 MW, Pakistan’s current installed capacity of 23,000 MW. To address this gap, Pakistan may need to install as much electrical capacity in the current decade as it did over the last 60 years."

well since years not even a single MW added in national grid. so as an engineer i am sure. this much will surely make a difference in economy. on other side.we have capability to produce what we required but capability of transmission lines and grids is not enough to with stand that much high load. so loadshedding is required in order to cool down the power system and to save whole grid from exploding.

my opinion is govt. should focus on both things in parallel transmission lines and grids and also on power generation.

 

[Daneshmand]

Not possible. A simple analysis of facts and figures to put things in perspective:

Current total theoretical generation capacity (installed capacity): 23,000 MW

Current total practical generation capacity: 15,900 MW

Current generation efficiency (actual generation / theoretical capacity): 69%

Current line losses: 17%

Current peak demand: 21,000 MW

Peak demand in year 2019 (estimated): 32,000 MW

Peak demand in year 2055 (for population of 360 million with one kilowatt unit per person): 360,000 MW

Needed installed capacity with efficiency of 69% to meet demand in 2019 (estimated): 46,000 MW

This would mean the addition of 23,000 MW of installed capacity in less than four years that is the construction of 6,000 MW of capacity per year from now (July 2015).

Needed installed capacity with efficiency of 69% to meet demand in 2055 (estimated): 498,000 MW

This would mean the addition of 475,000 MW of new installed capacity in 40 years that is the construction of about 12,000 MW of new capacity per year till 2055; meaning constructing 1000 MW of new capacity per month from now (July 2015).

Where would such gigantic investment and money come from to develop this capacity?

And most importantly can Pakistan's population afford to pay for this, with the prices below:

It is a matter of simple analysis.

So how many MW Pakistan added to its grid in the first 6 months of this year?

If the answer is 3,000 MW then it is possible to meet the challenge. If not, then things are only going to get worse. Sorry for the bad news.

 

[ice_man]

well if it ends or not this government is doing more about it then was done in last decade.

how many power plants were put by MUSHARRAF OR PPP???

 

[Daneshmand]

I wish our leadership start telling some stats SHOWING how the load shedding will end in 2017.

I am not your leader but I provided the stats and factual analysis in my above post based on figures from World Bank, IMF, United Nations and News reports.

 

[Arsalan]

well in 2017 alot of projects will b complete, loadshedding will not end but surely it will decrease exponentialy. if you aadd chasnupp power plants they willa dd around 600MW + solar and Wind mil projects. there will b total addition of 3000-5000MW.

While quoting this time line people tend to forget the annual increase in demand, by that time, your demand will also increase and that increase is MORE than what we will add to the national grid, meaning, same if not more shortfall. This is not wrong however, it is not your or my job to figure out this simple fact and thus when we are told that 8000 MW will be added by 2017 and we know that the shortfall is the same we believe that in 2017 the load shedding will end, what is wrong my friend is that even those who are responsible, the people in charge of all this also seem to overlook this simple fact, either this or else they are blatantly lying.

I am not your leader but I provided the stats and factual analysis in my above post based on figures from World Bank, IMF, United Nations and News reports.

these are the ones proving this to be a lie. I was asking or hoping for the leaders IF they can provide some figures to back there claims. They wont because they can't.

 

[Archie]

The main problem with this claim is that Increase in demand is not taken into calculation
Today Pakistan has a demand supply gap of 6000 MW
That's 30% shortage, which translates into 8 hrs of daily power cut for avg Pakistani house

Noonies claim that they will add 6000 MW by 2017, their by fulfilling the shortfall faced in 2014-15
But they forget that demand will probably rise to 26000 MW by 2017
While actual power generation would be at 21000 MW as best case scenario

However, as a percentage, the demand supply Gap could fall to 24% from 30%, which too maybe a big achievement of Noonie toons after 5 disastrous years of PPP

If you look at India's case

When UPA came to power in 2004, we had a demand supply Gap of 15000 MW
When they left in 2014, we had a demand supply gap of 20000 MW
This despite the fact that UPA added 114000 MW to the National Grid , which was more than what was added in previous 50 years.

But demand always exceeded the supply mainly on account of high economic growth

 

[Daneshmand]

these are the ones proving this to be a lie. I was asking or hoping for the leaders IF they can provide some figures to back there claims. They wont because they can't.

I think they know the truth and depth of the problem. But if they reveal it to general population then it would cause the people to accuse them of incompetence so they prefer to keep things in dark. This way they can let the public run on fumes of hope while they go about ruling them. It is the oldest trick in politics.

 

[Shah01]

Not possible. A simple analysis of facts and figures to put things in perspective:

Current total theoretical generation capacity (installed capacity): 23,000 MW

Current total practical generation capacity: 15,900 MW

Current generation efficiency (actual generation / theoretical capacity): 69%

Current line losses: 17%

Current peak demand: 21,000 MW

Peak demand in year 2019 (estimated): 32,000 MW

Peak demand in year 2055 (for population of 360 million with one kilowatt unit per person): 360,000 MW

Needed installed capacity with efficiency of 69% to meet demand in 2019 (estimated): 46,000 MW

This would mean the addition of 23,000 MW of installed capacity in less than four years that is the construction of 6,000 MW of capacity per year from now (July 2015).

Needed installed capacity with efficiency of 69% to meet demand in 2055 (estimated): 498,000 MW

This would mean the addition of 475,000 MW of new installed capacity in 40 years that is the construction of about 12,000 MW of new capacity per year till 2055; meaning constructing 1000 MW of new capacity per month from now (July 2015).

I have a few questions and hope you can help me understand:

When we say install a power plant which will generate a 1000 MW that means it will produce 1000 MW net or do we say it is 1000 MW plant but it will only produce 690 MW as per your generation efficiency?
The Current line losses stand at 17% so if I understand correctly we will need to generate 117% of demand to have parity?

I have run two different analysis. These give me the following (figures may not be 100% accurate as I have done this within an hour of analysis):
Some assumptions:

• Current population of 200 million (Year 2015).
• Population growth rate 1.95% and decreasing this by 0.0135% every year to get to 362million by year 2055.
• Line losses at 17%
• Power consumption per capita is 800kWh (Year 2015) although world records say 450kWh .

1. 1. 800kWh is increased by 4% every year to get to 3841kWh.
   2. 800kWh is Increased by 5% every year to get to 5632kWh. (equivalent to UK consumption)

Based on my model we will only need 27,000-28,000MW installed capacity by year 2019.
We will need 186,000-272,000MW installed capacity by year 2055. The higher figures are based on if we increase the power consumption to UK level.
If I use the published figures from here: Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) | Data | Table then the estimates will be even lower for 2019 but the end result should be same.

Pakistan has enough installed capacity to reduce the power outages to bare minimum but the following needs doing:

• The government need to reform the distribution of power and also reduce the line losses to 5-7%. Upgrade the whole distribution system
• Upgrade/maintain the existing generation
• Reduce the subsidy and eliminate it slowly
• Increase collection
• Invest in Coal power generation in the short to medium and Hydro and Nuclear for medium to long run.

Let me know if I have made any mistakes in my calculations. happy to discuss further.
Shah.

 

[Daneshmand]

I have a few questions and hope you can help me understand:

When we say install a power plant which will generate a 1000 MW that means it will produce 1000 MW net or do we say it is 1000 MW plant but it will only produce 690 MW as per your generation efficiency?
The Current line losses stand at 17% so if I understand correctly we will need to generate 117% of demand to have parity?

I have run two different analysis. These give me the following (figures may not be 100% accurate as I have done this within an hour of analysis):
Some assumptions:

• Current population of 200 million (Year 2015).
• Population growth rate 1.95% and decreasing this by 0.0135% every year to get to 362million by year 2055.
• Line losses at 17%
• Power consumption per capita is 800kWh (Year 2015) although world records say 450kWh .

1. 1. 800kWh is increased by 4% every year to get to 3841kWh.
   2. 800kWh is Increased by 5% every year to get to 5632kWh. (equivalent to UK consumption)

Based on my model we will only need 27,000-28,000MW installed capacity by year 2019.
We will need 186,000-272,000MW installed capacity by year 2055. The higher figures are based on if we increase the power consumption to UK level.
If I use the published figures from here: Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) | Data | Table then the estimates will be even lower for 2019 but the end result should be same.

Pakistan has enough installed capacity to reduce the power outages to bare minimum but the following needs doing:

• The government need to reform the distribution of power and also reduce the line losses to 5-7%. Upgrade the whole distribution system
• Upgrade/maintain the existing generation
• Reduce the subsidy and eliminate it slowly
• Increase collection
• Invest in Coal power generation in the short to medium and Hydro and Nuclear for medium to long run.

Let me know if I have made any mistakes in my calculations. happy to discuss further.
Shah.

1- For a plant, the efficiency would generally mean its thermal efficiency (how much of the fuel it converts to electricity). The efficiency I meant was the maximum system efficiency. That is if you have 10 plants, each of 1000 MW installed capacity, in the most demanding situation how much these plants can produce (you can't reach 10,000 level because of various technical and economic reasons). In Pakistan's case the system is 69% efficient at its peak demand moment. That is these 10 plants produce 6,900 MW when they are pushed to their technical / economic limit because of availability factor, capacity factor and even various on the ground situation from security to God knows what.

But the thermal efficiency is a whole different concept. It means how efficiently a plant is converting a source of energy to electricity. For example modern advanced combined cycle gas power plants can be near to 90% efficient. That is they can convert near to 90% of energy of natural gas to electricity. Compare this to the use of natural gas in a small home emergency genset which is about 15% efficient. That is the plant is going to make 6 times more electricity than a genset from the same amount of gas consumed. There is also the availability factor. This is how long a plant has the real capacity to be online and produce power. In case of the above combined cycle plant it is above 90% compared to hydroelectricity which can have availability factor of around 30%. And then there is capacity factor which is how much power a plant produces versus its maximum capacity year round. For the above example of combined cycle plant again this is about 90% compared for example with hydroelectricity or solar generation which is about 10-40%.

All these technical points plus economic points (does the plant have money to buy its fuel supply and spare parts for instance?) as well as indirect factors such as security, bureaucracy, politics etc make the overall system efficiency I talked about.

2- Depends how you are defining the load. If you are the customer, you might add your own needs say your air-conditioning unit, fans, TV, charging pod of your electronic gadget, refrigerator, lighting, washing machine, microwave etc etc and calculate your average demand, peak demand and load capacity. Similarly you can extend your calculation to your community and even city and country taking into account what kind of life standard and comforts you might want to allow them. But from the perspective of the power company, there are other demands as well.

One of them if the line losses due to unavoidable technical reasons for instance the resistance in distribution network to pilferage. Other demands are the critical infrastructure nodes in power generation and distribution network. For instance the power has to be maintained to control nodes of the distribution network, the power plants that are offline, etc etc. Other demands have to do with critical infrastructure of the country eg. radar stations, critical industrial units, large hospitals etc etc. So the actual peak demand is going to be always higher than the aggregate of the household peak demand.

3- Per reports of World Health Organization, Pakistan's population is going to reach 360 million by 2055 and stabilize at that point. So your analysis in this regard is right on the mark.

Your analysis for required installed capacity in year 2019 is wrong. Since as I argued above, and as in reality you can see, the overall generating system can not reach 100% of its nameplate capacity. In case of Pakistan the system reaches 69% of its nameplate installed capacity when under maximum load and demand. Unless Pakistan somehow increases this 69% figure substantially (it is very very and very difficult thing to do), then you need to have way more installed capacity than the actual peak demand.

To make an example out of your own analysis the 69% of 27,000 MW installed capacity is going to be 18,630 MW of peak generation. The peak demand in 2015 is 21,000 MW. So you will never be able to meet the demand in 2015 even with an installed capacity of 27,000 MW. In order to meet demand entirely in 2015 assuming the peak demand does not go higher than 21,000 MW, with 69% system efficiency, you would need 30,500 MW of installed capacity now in 2015. That is you are short by 7,500 MW installed capacity today.

By 2019, the demand has gone up both because population is growing and the people tend to upgrade their living standard (more and more people will buy computers, cell phones, refrigerators, air conditioners, fans etc etc) as well as advancing technology creates more products desired by society. So an estimate is made for total peak demand of the nation. What you have used in your example is the average consumption per year (your percapita numbers). The average consumption is an entirely different beast than the peak demand. Say I have a per capita consumption of 480 KW. But I use it only in one day of the year. That is one day in June I use 20 KW per hour and then for the rest of the year I use no electricity. In this example my per capita consumption is 480 KW. My peak demand is 20 KW. On the other hand I could have a peak demand of 55 watts if I just keep a 55 Watt light bulb on the whole year round and consume 480 KW in one year.

In a country like Pakistan, the peak demand occurs during summer since that is when people use fans, air-conditioning and refrigeration is in high demand. Some other countries have two peak demands one in summer and another in winter. And yet other countries might have one peak demand in winter. If you want to eradicate black out load shedding entirely, you must be able to meet the peak demand. If you have the capacity to meet average demand but not the peak demand, you will not be able to eradicate blackouts.

Per your own figures, UK uses over 12 times more per capita electricity than Pakistan. But UK's peak demand is about 57,500 MW which is just two and half times that of the peak demand in Pakistan. This is due to the fact that UK does not have harsh summers like Pakistan and in winter it mostly uses natural gas for heating. In other words, it is much more difficult for Pakistan to meet its peak demand than the UK since most of the power is going to be used in summer when temperatures might exceed even 51 degrees Celsius.

4- There is no sin in dreaming. Reducing line losses to 5% is just a dream. Even Sweden which is famed for its electricity distribution network technologies, has line losses of 7%. The only way you can reach 5% and below is if the country is geographically small in area so the distribution network length is small too and if the generation model is one of distributed nature where there are many small plants situated nearest to consumption points.

The only way and the only way you can eradicate power outages is by increasing your installed capacity. Reducing line losses, increasing efficiency, increasing economic profitability and the rest comes after you have met the demand and have installed the required capacity to meet the demand. It is matter of prioritization and the goals and ambitions of a nation. You can not tell a hungry man to chew whatever little food he gets in his mouth very well to a fine paste since this would increase the efficiency of digestive system to recover nutrients from the food. Though technically this is correct but practically the solution to problem is increasing the food supply not issuing chewing rules.

Pakistan's population is increasing. And people will strive to better their living standards by buying more electric and electronic gadgets. Not only people but also industry. This can not be dodged by cutting line losses or by increasing thermal efficiency of this or that plant. And subsidies can not be eradicated if the cost of generating electricity is way above what the people are ready to pay for. Look at the graph I have posted above. Do you really think Pakistan's public can afford solar or coal electricity without subsidy? And then there is the issue of where the money should come from to build all these plants which is an entirely different ball game. I have an idea though but Pakistanis do not seem to be the brightest bunch and usually attack when given sane advice.

 

[That Guy]

It'll probably be reduced, but it won't end by then. The demand of energy is expected to double by the end of this decade, which means that Pakistan will have to increase the capacity, which will take time and money.

 

[saadee]

Heard it Gazillion times.