Loadshedding to end-2017 PM ..After failing in past a new promise .. LOL

[Shah01]

1- For a plant, the efficiency would generally mean its thermal efficiency (how much of the fuel it converts to electricity). The efficiency I meant was the maximum system efficiency. That is if you have 10 plants, each of 1000 MW installed capacity, in the most demanding situation how much these plants can produce (you can't reach 10,000 level because of various technical and economic reasons). In Pakistan's case the system is 69% efficient at its peak demand moment. That is these 10 plants produce 6,900 MW when they are pushed to their technical / economic limit because of availability factor, capacity factor and even various on the ground situation from security to God knows what..

Thank you for your detailed reply. I have few more questions
I have read a bit about Capacity factor. What is the maximum possible? How does 69% compare to other countries?
Thermal efficiency will not exceed 60% for a combined cycle power plant although it may be as high as 95% for a ‘combined heat and power’ (CHP) plant. You may be confusing the two?
How can I calculate the peak demand? I am happy to have a constructive discussion. Maybe we can start a new thread?
I have updated my analysis with the following:
17% line losses & 69% Capacity factor.
This is for base load only. 5% growth will mean that we will be on par with UK by 2055 for base load.

I agree that people in Pakistan complain about the problem but don't want to know the reasons behind it and don't want to change the situation collectively. I have many ideas and happy to discuss and scrutinize to get to a solution. The investment needed to change the situation is another problem but where there is a will there is a way.

 

[Daneshmand]

Thank you for your detailed reply. I have few more questions
I have read a bit about Capacity factor. What is the maximum possible? How does 69% compare to other countries?
Thermal efficiency will not exceed 60% for a combined cycle power plant although it may be as high as 95% for a ‘combined heat and power’ (CHP) plant. You may be confusing the two?
How can I calculate the peak demand? I am happy to have a constructive discussion. Maybe we can start a new thread?
I have updated my analysis with the following:
17% line losses & 69% Capacity factor.
This is for base load only. 5% growth will mean that we will be on par with UK by 2055 for base load.
View attachment 234696

I agree that people in Pakistan complain about the problem but don't want to know the reasons behind it and don't want to change the situation collectively. I have many ideas and happy to discuss and scrutinize to get to a solution. The investment needed to change the situation is another problem but where there is a will there is a way.

First let me compliment you on that beautiful graph you posted. Very illustrative.

I really appreciate your logical approach. I tried to use maximum potential figures for each technology to keep a bird's eye view of the problem. Yes, I did mean trigeneration system which in case of large plants is just a technical extension of an advanced combined cycle. The extra heat can be used either for heating purposes or for cooling for example in an ice making factory or to power cold storage facility which is important in an agricultural country like Pakistan. But as you yourself noted even without this, the efficiency can be 60% and will increase to 64% by 2020: https://setis.ec.europa.eu/system/files/4.Efficiencyofheatandelectricityproductiontechnologies.pdf

I do not know about the new thread. Let's see. If discussion continues and develops into something then perhaps a mod can make it into a thread. But right now I guess this is good enough.

The capacity factor is different for different technologies. For example capacity factor and availability of geothermal stations can be as high as 95%. And I think this is perhaps the maximum possible since the plant depends on a source of energy which is running all the time (the earth's internal core). I guess nuclear power plants come second or at a tie.

69% is actually average. There is room for improvement but it won't solve Pakistan's problem since Pakistan is suffering from shortage in installed capacity. At any rate too high a figure in this regard is not a good thing either, since it would mean the system is going to be fragile and not redundant. You would want to have some plants idling or maintain backup status so if something goes wrong, other plants can take over. If say you are running at 90% of nameplate capacity, and if something goes wrong in any plant for whatever reason, then the system collapses.

Peak demand for future is usually estimated based on historical pattern of usage, the growth in consumption, and other factors such as meteorological conditions, time of the day and even sometimes a unique event for instance a popular TV show or a televised sporting event can push up the peak demand. The power distribution companies use this estimation to plan their load management. But still there must be enough spare capacity in the system so that if load increases unexpectedly, the system can cope with it. That is why installed capacity is important.

In your graph it should be GW and not GWh since we are talking about power and not energy. UK has an installed capacity of 124 GW but it imports electricity too. Generally speaking, for an industrialized society with a comfortable living standard 1 KW installed capacity per person is required. The more the merrier but this is pretty much the minimum. If say Pakistan has the ambition to have a respectable living standard by 2055 then it must plan for such a capacity.

So what is your idea? How you think Pakistan should proceed?

 

[Shah01]

I have amended the chart title to GW. I think UK only has about 85GW of installed capacity and we do import but very little amount (~5%).
I think the following points are needed (Others can add or take away points which they think as problems)?

• Generation and distribution infrastructure need to be updated.
• Smart grid needs to be introduced. This will also help reduce the line losses.
• Need to predict the Base and Peak load with high accuracy. It will be easier with the smart grid.
• Future power needs to be understood and policies placed to grow the power generation and distribution infrastructure.
• Introduce power saving measures
• Bill collection needs to be improved/reformed/privatised
• Power sector should be partly privatise (maybe follow the PTCL model)
• Water management should be made into a separate institution (another thread is needed to discuss water shortage). See why it needs attention.
  
  

For generation we can adopt the following:
Short term measures:
Solar Panels: This should be done by private sector with some subsidy from government. Every household can buy and install panels on their roof so say 1kW-4kW. These houses should be grid connected with smart meters (net metering facility). These can have a hybrid system whereby if the grid is down then they can still use the power produced from the solar panels.
Power Plants at Grid Stations: As the power outages are very long and widespread each city can have its own small power plants producing the shortfall? Set-up these keeping in mind of future needs. So look at the population of the city, consumption and shortfall.
Benefits would be twofold: One the power plant will use less gas to produce the energy 2nd it will require less maintenance compared to small generators run by the households at the moment.
Power saving: People should update their electronics to save on power. Simple change of tube lights will make a very big difference.
Long Term measures:
We assume from the chart that a 4% growth in power consumption is our base load. To generate base load power the following should be built:

Nuclear, Coal, Gas and Hydro Power plants. These can be equally weighted for a good energy mix?
For the Peak load we can have Gas power plants?
Furthermore we can build power plants near the end user? These maybe impractical for Nuclear and Hydro.
For short term Coal and Gas power plants can be setup.
Use the coal in thar as well as imported. Use new technology which captures the fumes? Private and public sector can build these.
Nuclear power plants takes much longer to build but they are very economical in the long run. A private investor can build and distribute energy from these as the investment is very intensive.
Hydro power plants can be built by both private and public sector?
Any other ideas….

 

[Jzaib]

Now we have one more date . Trust me it will not even end it 2017. But yes we will have few more metros

 

[Daneshmand]

I have amended the chart title to GW. I think UK only has about 85GW of installed capacity and we do import but very little amount (~5%).
I think the following points are needed (Others can add or take away points which they think as problems)?

• Generation and distribution infrastructure need to be updated.
• Smart grid needs to be introduced. This will also help reduce the line losses.
• Need to predict the Base and Peak load with high accuracy. It will be easier with the smart grid.
• Future power needs to be understood and policies placed to grow the power generation and distribution infrastructure.
• Introduce power saving measures
• Bill collection needs to be improved/reformed/privatised
• Power sector should be partly privatise (maybe follow the PTCL model)
• Water management should be made into a separate institution (another thread is needed to discuss water shortage). See why it needs attention.
  View attachment 234749

For generation we can adopt the following:
Short term measures:
Solar Panels: This should be done by private sector with some subsidy from government. Every household can buy and install panels on their roof so say 1kW-4kW. These houses should be grid connected with smart meters (net metering facility). These can have a hybrid system whereby if the grid is down then they can still use the power produced from the solar panels.
Power Plants at Grid Stations: As the power outages are very long and widespread each city can have its own small power plants producing the shortfall? Set-up these keeping in mind of future needs. So look at the population of the city, consumption and shortfall.
Benefits would be twofold: One the power plant will use less gas to produce the energy 2nd it will require less maintenance compared to small generators run by the households at the moment.
Power saving: People should update their electronics to save on power. Simple change of tube lights will make a very big difference.
Long Term measures:
We assume from the chart that a 4% growth in power consumption is our base load. To generate base load power the following should be built:
View attachment 234750
Nuclear, Coal, Gas and Hydro Power plants. These can be equally weighted for a good energy mix?
For the Peak load we can have Gas power plants?
Furthermore we can build power plants near the end user? These maybe impractical for Nuclear and Hydro.
For short term Coal and Gas power plants can be setup.
Use the coal in thar as well as imported. Use new technology which captures the fumes? Private and public sector can build these.
Nuclear power plants takes much longer to build but they are very economical in the long run. A private investor can build and distribute energy from these as the investment is very intensive.
Hydro power plants can be built by both private and public sector?
Any other ideas….

Sorry for late reply.

Those all seem good, but more like a manifesto.

My advice is simple. Concentrate on increasing installed capacity. The rest should be prioritized long after this has been done. All energy should go towards installed capacity.

 

[Shah01]

Well it is like a manifesto but there are things which can be done to decrease the peak power need i.e. solar panels on every roof subsidized by the government and also net metering (smart meters). This will not require a mega investment and will take much less time to implement. I purpose this because I don't see the government increasing the installed capacity inline with the demand.
Secondly the power distribution infrastructure is not good enough to distribute power even if there is enough capacity.

 

[Daneshmand]

Well it is like a manifesto but there are things which can be done to decrease the peak power need i.e. solar panels on every roof subsidized by the government and also net metering (smart meters). This will not require a mega investment and will take much less time to implement. I purpose this because I don't see the government increasing the installed capacity inline with the demand.
Secondly the power distribution infrastructure is not good enough to distribute power even if there is enough capacity.

Well unfortunately I have inform you that solar option is very expensive. Putting solar panel on every roof is hardly a small project. One single solar panel produces very little power not enough to even run a fan the whole day. Forget about refrigeration, air conditioning and a plethora of electric and electronic devices from microwaves to TV. In order to meet even part of this demand you will have to install several panels, with corresponding battery storage system and a ac/dc converter plus a load management system. These all add up to an expensive solution. If you multiply it for tens of millions of homes in Pakistan, you will have a mega project on your hand.

Better would be to create two national companies. One manufacturing power plant equipment and specializing in installing them. And another manufacturing transmission, transformer and switching equipment and installing them. These two companies can even be under the control of Pakistan military if the government can not run them efficiently. There are advantages to a national company in dire situation that Pakistan is in. One is the fact that such a national company does not need a gigantic reserves of dollars to create installed capacity. Right now Pakistan has to pay top dollars to foreign companies to build and install power plants. Dollars are always short. But national company doing most of the manufacturing inside the country only needs Rupees in Pakistan's case which you print yourselves (at tolerable rate of creating some inflation). Under such a model you can go on and increase your installed capacity along with transmission system.

This is how in real world it is done. This is how China did it. Through national companies. This is how Iran did it. Through national companies. Unless you do not have low population and a big access to dollars like some Arab fiefdom, then this is your only salvation. In the start, Pakistan needs to keep it simple and low cost. For example by only concentrating to buy technology for the kind of power plants which can be built fast, and produce cheapest electricity for instance the combined cycle plants. When things pick up after a decade or so then such a company can diversify to other areas.

I estimate, to buy the technology and setup a factory that can manufacture turbines and generators for combined cycle plants would cost something like a few billion dollars. Add to this a couple of billion dollars to buy technology and manufacturing capacity for transmission equipment. Pakistan is already paying billions and billions to foreign companies setting up ridiculous plants such as wind and solar and others like this one here, often under long term and financially noncompetitive terms. Why not invest in your own capacity to build plants?

I do not see any other solution. Pakistan is a poor country and can not increase its installed capacity at all through foreign buying of plants and solar panels for homes. The only solution is to internalize the technology. As other countries have done.

 

[Shah01]

Well unfortunately I have inform you that solar option is very expensive. Putting solar panel on every roof is hardly a small project. One single solar panel produces very little power not enough to even run a fan the whole day. Forget about refrigeration, air conditioning and a plethora of electric and electronic devices from microwaves to TV. In order to meet even part of this demand you will have to install several panels, with corresponding battery storage system and a ac/dc converter plus a load management system. These all add up to an expensive solution. If you multiply it for tens of millions of homes in Pakistan, you will have a mega project on your hand.

Yes it is expensive but I am thinking of a similar model to what happens in UK. Here every household can install up to 4kW PV panels and get a subsidy from the government. So the consumer will pay for the panels and all the equipment. The grid will provide smart meter (net metering enabled). The consumer gets a fixed rate for every kWh it produces and also gets an amount for the electricity it exports to the grid. This way the consumer gets his investment back after a certain number of years (say 10years). So this way the government is not paying all for all the investment but it is the private individuals who pay the most.

I am sure there are thousands if not millions of households who can afford to install 4kW PV array. That is 16 panels of 250w. No battery bank needed as the grid will act as the battery. I know this is not possible when there are power outage hence I said a hybrid system. This system will have a few batteries which could run a couple of fans, few lights. (We have a simple UPS system at home 1kw system with 2 lead acid batteries (runs the above for a few hours no problem). Batteries normally cost around Rs 40k which may need replacement every two years).

Better would be to create two national companies. One manufacturing power plant equipment and specializing in installing them. And another manufacturing transmission, transformer and switching equipment and installing them. These two companies can even be under the control of Pakistan military if the government can not run them efficiently. There are advantages to a national company in dire situation that Pakistan is in. One is the fact that such a national company does not need a gigantic reserves of dollars to create installed capacity. Right now Pakistan has to pay top dollars to foreign companies to build and install power plants. Dollars are always short. But national company doing most of the manufacturing inside the country only needs Rupees in Pakistan's case which you print yourselves (at tolerable rate of creating some inflation). Under such a model you can go on and increase your installed capacity along with transmission system.

Ah 360 degree solution. Well very valid points and will totally agree with you. I don’t even want to start to name what industries can be set up and how these will benefit the investors as well as the consumers. I am not sure what industry is already in place and maybe someone with knowledge can say a few things about it?

This is how in real world it is done. This is how China did it. Through national companies. This is how Iran did it. Through national companies. Unless you do not have low population and a big access to dollars like some Arab fiefdom, then this is your only salvation. In the start, Pakistan needs to keep it simple and low cost. For example by only concentrating to buy technology for the kind of power plants which can be built fast, and produce cheapest electricity for instance the combined cycle plants. When things pick up after a decade or so then such a company can diversify to other areas.

Yes that is why I said in my reply that every district should have combined cycle power plants (easy and quick to set up and can be run on various fuels). This will eliminate the need to update the transmission lines. These should be installed with enough capacity to meet the future demands (say for 5 years etc). These can be set up by private companies/Individuals or even a community project... The possibilities are unlimited.

Agreed with your last two paras as well. That will take time to set-up a whole industry to deal with the internal demand. But equally it will be very beneficial in the long run. I am just trying to think of a way to have a stopgap solution which can quickly meet the current demand.

 

[OrionHunter]

This is a lie. Brazen, shameless lie:

Arre bhai, give the man a chance!

 

[VCheng]

Arre bhai, give the man a chance!

What chance do you want to give to a person who claims to get the sun up at midnight? Giving a chance does not mean to allow a brazen faced shameless lie, which is what this is, totally.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Only answer is if people get their own power system , SOLAR POWER per family Home

If thru "professional quality solar power" you can meet 80% need of your "own" home you will not even care what WAPDA does not or they do

 

[airmarshal]

You guys rot in hell like heat in Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif is gone for 10 day ummrah.

Like really go to hell all of you!! Pakistan has no problems left to resolve. Load shedding is not Sharif problem. His power is never cut because he is power.

So instead of seeing you miserably rotting in hell, he decided to go appease his Creator.

 

[Daneshmand]

Yes it is expensive but I am thinking of a similar model to what happens in UK. Here every household can install up to 4kW PV panels and get a subsidy from the government. So the consumer will pay for the panels and all the equipment. The grid will provide smart meter (net metering enabled). The consumer gets a fixed rate for every kWh it produces and also gets an amount for the electricity it exports to the grid. This way the consumer gets his investment back after a certain number of years (say 10years). So this way the government is not paying all for all the investment but it is the private individuals who pay the most.

I am sure there are thousands if not millions of households who can afford to install 4kW PV array. That is 16 panels of 250w. No battery bank needed as the grid will act as the battery. I know this is not possible when there are power outage hence I said a hybrid system. This system will have a few batteries which could run a couple of fans, few lights. (We have a simple UPS system at home 1kw system with 2 lead acid batteries (runs the above for a few hours no problem). Batteries normally cost around Rs 40k which may need replacement every two years).

Here, you are underestimating the technical complexity of such a system. First of all it is not about just changing a meter. The whole grid has to be upgraded to make it bi-directional and capable of what you are proposing (selling electricity back to grid). This means a huge investment on the part of the government. Beside Pakistan does not have the installed capacity and a smart grid necessary to act like a battery for the consumers. This leaves you with the option of each house having its own solar panels, batteries, AC/DC converter and some kind of a switching system (auto or manual) to change between grid and house. And for this I do not think anybody or the government is stopping people to install this system.

Do you know why people do not do it on their own? Because PV generated electricity is expensive. The batteries are not 100% efficient and much power is lost between charging them, and drawing power from them and by the AC/DC converter. What you are left with is not 4KW of the original theoretical capacity of the panels but quite less. Then it is the cost of buying this equipment and maintaining it (for instance changing the lead acid batteries, you yourself mentioned). Without government subsidizing, that is giving people cash or vouchers to buy and maintain this equipment, it would not be feasible for the people to do it. A quality 4 KW solar system costs over 5,000 dollars when bought in bulk in international market.

And this means the government has to spend huge amount of money whether by subsidizing these home systems and then by installing smart bi-directional grid. All for what? For a solar electricity that costs twice as much per kwh as the one produced by combined cycle plants?

Countries like UK and Germany can do such things, because they are rich and can afford such "luxurious ideas" like saving the earth and saving the pandas. These ideas are not for poor Pakistanis. You should save yourselves. From heat, so that people do not drop dead on streets because they do not have fans and refrigerated drinking water. The money as I said, should be spent to buy and internalize technologies for plants that can produce low cost electricity in shortest amount of time. This means combined cycle plants.

You will know your government is serious about solving this issue when you see it is doing what I proposed. Any other thing, from solar to wind and from "foreign investment" to "war on pilferage" are just political tricks to postpone the problem into the future to be solved (or alternatively explode) in the tenure of future governments.

 

[syedali73]

If only specialized power generators could be developed and placed underneath the roads that would generate electricity through mechanical vibration resulting from vehicles running on the roads. I am sure Nawaz & Co would be more than happy to invest in such a project and would be able to fulfill her promise to end the power shortage by 2017.

New technique for generating electricity from mechanical vibrations
By Richard Moss - November 12, 2014

Electrical energy is normally generated through heat, motion, nuclear transformation, or chemical reactions, but now scientists at VTT Technical Research Center of Finland have devised a new method that involves mechanical vibrations. They figured out how to "harvest" the vibrational energy that occurs naturally when two surfaces with different work functions are connected via electrodes, and this energy could potentially be used to power wearables and other low-power electronics.

A work function is a property of the surface of a material that is defined as the difference between the energy of an electron at rest and the minimum thermodynamic work (another form of energy) that is required to remove said electron from the material. It's often applied in photoelectric devices and cathode-ray tubes, and is sometimes guarded against in electronic circuits involving different metals, but it had not before been used in vibration energy harvesting.

The VTT scientists created a parallel-plate capacitor with copper and aluminum that was hooked up to an external circuit. The plates' respective work functions provided the initial one volt charge as electrons fled from one surface to the other. Different electrode materials could theoretically yield higher voltages – over 3 V with wide band-gap semiconductors or over 5 V with n and p-type diamond. The copper plate was fixed in place while a motor vibrated the aluminum plate perpendicular to both plates, either continuously or in pulses.

The researchers also ran simulations of their work function energy harvester in realistic microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) scenarios, determining that the built-in voltage could lead to output power over one order of magnitude higher when the vibration frequency is matched with the mechanical resonance frequency of the device.

Work function energy harvesters have one big advantage over the piezoelectric and electrostatic devices that generate electricity from mechanical vibrations to power many sensors and medical implants. The scientists note that such harvesters don't need an external power source or any electret materials (essentially, electrostatic magnets), and moreover they can generate more power in many operating conditions.

VTT estimates that it will take three to six years for this new technology to be rolled out on an industrial scale, though the researchers caution in their study conclusions that MEMS versions still need to be realized.

New technique for generating electricity from mechanical vibrations

 

[Shah01]

Here, you are underestimating the technical complexity of such a system. First of all it is not about just changing a meter. The whole grid has to be upgraded to make it bi-directional and capable of what you are proposing (selling electricity back to grid)......

I am not well versed with the mechanics and you maybe right about the scenario. Pakistan need to upgrade the grid system anyway so why not upgrade it to bi-directional? Make it bi-directional at city level so less infrastructure will require upgrade. Start with one city/district. Allow private investors to do this. I want people to take initiatives at city level to tackle this power outage problem.
I totally agree with that combined cycle will be the best way to tackle this problem hence the suggestion that private/public/community projects can be initiated to generate power for the city/district. The savings will be immense as a combined cycle thermal efficiency alone will save so much money in imports of oil/gas.
One doesn't even need 4kW PV array. I am aware that there are losses and power produced is not 4kW (many factors at work). But the aim of this project will be to help the power generation at micro level with minimum investment from the government.

Do you have an idea of how much a bi-directional grid upgrade will cost?
How much will a combined cycle power plant will cost to build? (per MW)