Libyan Civil War Thread

[Mhmoud]

@Mhmoud

Sorry brother, I feel that your quality posts deserves a substantial reply and such a reply will obviously take some time (longer than I thought) so if you don't mind, I will try to reply whenever my reply has written which might take a few days. Not writing the reply itself, lol, but you know what I mean. I don't want to make a reply for the sake of it while I am visiting this thread and online.

@Wilhelm II @The SC @Philip the Arab

I have not seen any Saudi Arabian involvement on the ground in Libya or any weapons support. We were never really involved in Libya that much neither when Gaddafi was toppled. That was mostly Qatar.

As written earlier we have ties with both elements and all parties in Libya. Including the tribal and clan elements. I see no need (IMO) to pick any side. Let our Libyan brothers and sisters decide on their own. No need to be afraid of any non-Arabs they won't ever be able to (if that is the goal) make Libya an enemy of fellow Arab states let alone the people. Nor will they change any culture or "de-Arabize". Not possible with Arabs.

Extremists must be combated for the sake of Libya itself and the neighborhood but all parties involved are doing it from what I can see.

A reminder from less than 10 days ago (Arab League and OIC summit in Makkah):





This means that KSA is pursuing the diplomatic option for now and talking with both sides. Similar with visits of other Libyan leaders.

Thank you brother for your reply. I am looking forward to your opinion on the matter. Please feel free to take your time.

Although I do agree that there was no weapons support in Libya coming from the KSA, there was some non-lethal aid from the country, including the Hilux pickups, as mentioned in the UN Panel of Experts report in 2017. Although you are completely correct that the new weaponry in Libya is mainly sourced from Europe, Egypt, the rest of the Gulf and Turkey. Saudi Arabia has been taking more of a hands-off and touch-and-go approach when it comes to its relations with Libya, being careful not to jeopardise its relations with both sides.

Although I do agree that there are elements that want to de-Arabise or deculture the individual Arab states, we must also recognise that there are fault lines and opposing interests between the leaders of various Arab states, like the power axes of Doha and Abu Dhabi, along with others. These aren't because of any enmety between people, as the Arab people will always be close to one another, but there are fault lines within adn between states that render them at odds with one another. This is absolutely normal within the context of international relations, and when people say that they 'hate a country' they usually mean its government, and very rarely do they mean its actual people. So I am not as concerned about any hate or splitting of people, but in an enmity in the political context, in the form of cold relations extending to the extreme possibility of proxy conflict.

I also agree that both sides are on their paths to eliminating extremists in Libya, but the context within this elimination must also be taken to account. On the GNA's side, the major war that they had was between them and ISIS in the Bunyan al-Marsous Operation. The operation was a success, and its effort to rout the presence of extremists, as well as its effectiveness in preventing attacks, were commendable. However, much of Haftar's efforts in Benghazi and Derna were more of thinly disguised power-grabs. The dubious relations twice removed of various smaller groups in the two cities were more of a pretext for foreign help to gain the control, rather than actual counterterror operations on the ground.

I appreciate the KSA taking the role of the mediator here, but I am afraid that the ship has already sailed. Serraj has been supporting a political solution with Haftar for years and it took him until the Battle for Tripoli to realise that he is there for absolute power and not for the talks or a position in the military. Serraj's mistake of genuinely believing Haftar despite similar power grabs may be a sign that he is better suted as a bureaucrat than an actual impromptu leader. Although he is paying for his mistake politically, he has learned from this mistake and has said multiple times that the political solution with Haftar is effectively dead. Haftar has also refused any political solution of any sort, which doubles the issue of bringing them back to the negotiating table. Currently, GNA officials have managed to reunite the HOR and form a functioning legislature once more, and has also started talks with delegations of Elders in the East. So any political solution will involve them and not Haftar.

I hope that the civil war ends, likely this year or the next, and Libya will resume its warm relations with the KSA.

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

This thread is more useful for our discussion and I appreciate our conversation. Whatever I write is not intended to hurt any feelings I am merely posting my opinions and arguing why I think like I do. Or at least I try to do.

I haven’t done dna tests your statement is one of many possible options yet it’s just a claim scientific unproven
You are right about MB but we should blame arab rulers why they allowed their teaching this is another topic and should be discussed right now because we are already derailing the topic too much
It’s funny to hear from an arab or from iranian member about turkish genes study i think his name was armagedon or something like that
Of course turks are mixed with various today knowm ethnic groups since there are lots of states established by turkish tribes around the world during history
There are literally folk songs from balkan christians how a turk took whenever he wanted slavic girl also there is the devshirme situation I guess also there were a lot of mixing between turks and arabs/persians in the border region as you know turks when conquered anatolia they came from the east
so lots of modern day kurds have predominantly turkmen ancestry i can even say most of the kurds in south east are actually former armenians and turkmens
I don’t have problem with having diversity in my dna if there’s a girl i truly love certainly won’t care about her skin race or religion
There’s no pure nation that’s a fact that everyone with a brain acknowledges so I wonder what would you say about the dna of modern day arabs
For example jordanian royal family was the true dna succesor of the Prophet not anymore if you ask me but now king abdulla or his relatives they have nothing to do with a standard arab look
There are also big variations in almost all arab states especially iraq lebanon and syria to my surprise even in palestine
It’s absurd to say deny turks the right of anatolia while the term turk was used long time ago by european christians to say bad words about someone who was muslim from anatolia
I thank you for the extensive info about the background of saudi society definitely will help me in the future when I analyze developments in the ME(GCC)
My personal opinion is that all arab state eventually should follow Tunisia example a state that has really respectable independent policy willing to work with everyone as long as tunisian interests are served plus they usually don’t want to be part of any power games which is something that should be appreciated
Regarding Syria i will need to write too much but will say shortly if there’s anyone who truly deserves to be blamed that’s assad and the syrian opposition which was unable to eliminate jihadist wing in the revolution all other actors have secondary blame if syrians can’t get to work together finding long lasting solution I don’t think we should expect this from foreign countries who have their own interests in Syria

What I was just alluding to was the very strange phenomenon of Turks online to claim whatever remotely Turkic related dynasty across the world, even though most Turks (Anatolians or citizens of Turkey) barely have (ever) any genetic connection to those people. In fact the few Turkic invaders (Seljuks) that conquered Anatolia mostly forced their language on the natives (of various origins) hence the well-known Turkification process. As I said this is would be akin to Somalis claiming any remotely Arab related dynasty across the world. You would laugh at such a thing.

Of course everyone in the world is mixed and the Arab world is diverse as well but we cannot deny that vast majority of us are sons and daughters of the soil and inheritors of the oldest known civilizations on the planet of mostly a Semitic/Afro-Asiatic speaking stock which also explains why it was only fellow Semites in the Arab world that easily adopted Arab identity whether in Arabia or elsewhere in the Arab world.

So knowing all this, the distancing or some insults aimed at Arabs from certain Turkish users here is rather pathetic and like shooting yourself in your own foot. I don't see such behavior from the few remaining Arab users here unless provoked beforehand.

Anyway that is off-topic.

BTW, is it truth what Bulgarians claim that you North Macedonians are "Bulgarians in disguise"? Also how is the relationship with the Albanian minority in Western and Northwestern North Macedonia? Is it as bad as you hear? If you don't mind answering.

Yes, Turkmen and Arab intermarriages in Northern Syria and Iraq are rather common.

Well, King Abdullah is half British but his children are 75% Arab. Their children will probably be 87.5% Arab. BTW, I belong to the same clan (Sharifs of Makkah) and marriages (every generation or so) with fellow Arab ruling families or foreigners (Circassians in particular) occurred.

Well, I don't deny the right of anyone to Anatolia, I just consider Turks (Anatolians) to be mostly native people of various ethnic backgrounds (Arabs, Greeks, Armenians, Assyrians, Persians, Kurds, Turkic minority, Circassians, Albanians, Bulgarians, Macedonians/people from the Balkans) rather than actual Turkic people from Central Asia. Genetically that is. I also don't think that you share more culture with an Uzbek (we have the largest Uzbek community in the MENA in KSA) than you do with a Syrian next door. You look more similar, the cuisine is more similar, the climate, geography etc.

You are welcome.

As for system of rule, if you study history (empires, kingdoms, ancient civilizations) success mostly dependent on the capability of the ruler/dynasty/the people of power rather than the ideology/system in place. For instance look at a dictatorship and one-party system like China and its effectiveness of turning China into a superpower from a backwater state and compare the achievements of the "democracy" that India has been since 1947. India has almost as many people and much more fertile land and as many resources more or less.

Each country has its specific history. Tunisia is a small country with a small population. Largely homogenous. There are no large ethnic, religious, sectarian, racial differences. Not many natural resources for corrupt leaderships to take advantage of. Close to Italy/Europe. Yet it has many weaknesses, a weak military, no political/geopolitical influence in the neighborhood, lack of development in the countryside, not the wealthiest country. On the other hand they have a good education system inherited from the French and past rulers were reformists and pioneers on some fronts of their time giving Tunisia a distinctive position in the Maghreb. I always compare Tunisia with Lebanon (the good things of Lebanon) minus the sectarian division and religious/ethnic divisions that have torn Lebanon apart historically and today as well (politically).

But to be honest with you, what is a multiparty system and the ability to vote every 4 years of importance if most people are electing idiots and each new government is more busy trying to destroy what the predecessor did (due to political disagreements) rather than move the country forward?

My ideal idea of a perfect society (strictly political and no religion involved in my example) is a meritocracy where only the most talented people (on each field) make the decisions for the greater benefit of the people and nation. However most of such capable people (at least in the West) don't want anything to do with politics but prefer the business world and to keep out of the limelight.

I could see a constitutional monarchy emerging in KSA with the royal family acting like a national symbol and a party system but I am afraid that people would be voting based on affiliation whether tribal, clan, provincial and whatever benefits them. Much like what occurs today with the rich largely voting on parties to the right and the more poor preferring socialist/social democratic parties.

I think what is the most important for the cohesion of the nation is a common destiny and a common history, language, traditions, culture, social norms etc. although most people are only interested in the basics needs being met such as security, prosperity, prospects, education, food on the table, enough money to engage in your interests and create something for your offspring and yourself and the general pleasures of life that people enjoy in all parts of the world. That and freedom which depends on the culture aside from universal like freedoms.

 

[Ansu fati]

about china
i must say what they have done in the last 40 years is simply breathtaking effort that only disciplined nation can do
I think that every nation has to have capable leader during the early stages of development but then eventually the system which was built takes over mao zedong was the guy which was the most important factor for china during 20th century succes but now the hard-working system which is built is enough to guide china if you ask me it doesn’t matter who will be the president because the system is so strong that even an average president couldn’t mess up things also the second most important thing is the society and their character
Chinese are much more hardworking dedicated to compete with the world they have desire to be in the top and they are doing for now good job
Chinese also have history as a big state throughout history this is something for me also important factor that could be pusher for a certain nation to rise like a phoenix exactly what happened to china they were poor they killed each other too much in the last 200 years also japanese killed lot of them during ww2 but the myth about Chinese power plus strong capable leader like mao raised from a poor third world country to the second most powerful country after US
Indians are lazy people they also don’t have winner mentality and they don’t have efficient political system because their society is too much divided across ideological lines they also have slave mentality because much of their history they were under foreign rule in short they will never manage to pull out something close to what china did
Only good thing for indians is that they have very big population and their demographic numbers continue to skyrocket this means they will receive lot of investments from the world but I don’t have hope in them

this is about the first part

I usually try not to have prejudices towards any ethnic group but sometimes no matter how i try to distance myself simply I cannot ignore it with that being said for example armenians greeks had more rights than arabs and other non-turkish muslims yet they have changed sides in WW1 and of course retribution was likely to occur now both of these nations are filled with state sponsored hate so it’s obvious to have some reservations towards them same could be said with serbs and their historical hate for muslims few hours ago i tried to explain to a singapore guy about serbs he consistently thought i was against china then i understood he’s lost case and abandoned discussion even though I only said it was a cheap propaganda played by serbian president and china’s ongoing efforts to do damage control since everyone i know in my state blames china for the virus i guess same could be said for majority of the people around the world

Arabs had right to revolt as they were neglected but revolt happened in the wrong time and they choose to side with enemy then actually turks and anatolian muslims suffered a lot basically turks were on the verge of genocide if you think that arab muslims are hated the most i can tell that’s nothing compared to the hate europeans feel for muslim turks eventually ataturk won the war and that’s why all turks love him because he saved us from being cleansed in anatolia and the balkans
Before ww1 there were balkan wars first big number of muslims were purged from balkans then they wanted to purge muslims from anatolia and then they would go down in arabia doing the same thing unfortunately for them they were stopped in turkish-greek war 1919-22
It was ataturk and his effort which inspired syrian and iraqi nationalists to fight against european colonisers
Later both arab and turkish political regimes did immense demonization of each other’s ethnic groups and here you have foreigners riding the show in ME for the last 90 years
I am hardcore nationalist but a pragmatic one who is more interested if all people in Turkey are loyal or not i have no problem with diversity as long the guy is ready to give his life for the country but if a certain group wants some language or similar rights then my answer they will get the armenian treatment
In anatolia there’s only one flag one nation everyone who wants to respect that is welcomed to join those who want fakestan are free to go to northern iraq before they are exterminated

about macedonians
My advice to you is not to call macedonians as north macedonians it’s no problem for me or any other muslim minority living here but if you meet a macedonian in your life never ever ask him a question like this cause he will strangle you hahahahah
Macedonia is probably the only one slavic orthodox(christian) majority country which is pro-turkish oriented which is relief for me imagine if I was born in serbia or greece or bulgaria
Bulgarians actually have controversial origins
They claim to be slavic(ethnic) orthodox christians but the reality is that there were turks settled in what is known today as bulgaria after slavs came to Balkan Peninsula they mixed with turks(local populations) basically they were turks who were slavicized from pagans became orthodox chritians and the most interesting fact they kept the name bulgarians even though it’s turkish origin term used by pagan turkish population settled before slav arrived
Please note that there are lots of different turks who developed distinct identities so a turk in bulgaria was called itself differently than a turk in anatolia(i am talking about various turkish tribes in 10th century)
Basically speaking all people on balkans are mixed between themselves and they are claiming certain parts of neighboring countries so you have irredentism like greater greece which claims territories from bulgaria macedonia turkey albania greater bulgaria which claims territories from turkey greece and whole macedonia greater albania which claims western part of macedonia territory from greece from serbians and from montenegro
greater serbia which claims whole bosnia big part of croatia whole macedonia territories from albania whole kosovo and you croatia which claims part from serbia slovenia and bosnia also croatia and slovenia have sea dispute between themselves and with italy
In short balkan is the mother of disputes only reason why ME took the crown from us as the most sectarian region is because we balkan people(muslims christians and various ethnic groups) have exterminated each other so now demographics are so fucked there’s no new generation for a war all young people flee to europe for better life
I like albanians since they are my muslim brothers plus they are also pro-turkey oriented(i am excluding christian albanians) but in macedonia and kosovo almost 99% are muslim so maybe I shouldn’t even mention christian albanians
Also as i said at the beginning macedonians are rare orthodox christian ethnic group that generally has positive feelings towards turks so i am personally in a difficult position
Albanians have separatistic tendencies and they are favorite player of US while serbs are favorite russian player bosnians are favorite turkish player croats/slovenians are pro german/eu/vatican oriented bulgarians and greek people are usually pro russia due to religious feelings but if talk about foreign policy they play with both sides recently we can see greeks forming alliance with US/Israel
Reason why i am writing this is because balkan is like bomb waiting to explode
If albanians do something in macedonia then all borders disputes are open and that means war in balkans everyone would try to correct injustices they suffered from the west/turks policies
Albanians have two states and they also enjoy rights in macedonia as if they are majority so you know such sentiment triggers dissatisfaction for macedonians also the name change of the country was done in the most possible treacherous way so things
If i have to give comparison with ME albanians are actually the kurds of balkans
I will now post the image of our president and the prime minister of bulgaria i leave to you to decide if macedonians are bulgarians

Macedonians are exclusive white bulgarians are mixed they have white people but also lot of dark skinned
If we do comparison about all people(macedonians turks albanians serbs bosnians excluding roma people) versus all people in bulgaria the result is same we are 99% white they(bulgaria) are mixed
About the rest of your post i will answer it tomorrow since I plan to get hell out of balkan i will tell which country has the best political system but this country isn’t my first choice northern neighbor of this country is my favorite place
I am writing from an iPhone so itnwas easier from me to reply like this without quoting the post
@ArabianEmpires&Caliphates

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241646575694340096

 

[Ansu fati]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241646575694340096

Haftar cannot do anything since his air supermacy for now is blocked by turkish air defense system+plus cheap TB2 yet very effective drone
I have no doubt that if things are critical for gna we will see direct turkish response for now I don’t think it’s needed maybe in the future if UAE or Egypt decide to up the air campaign
All gna has to do is to resist until Akinci enters mass production in 2021 then we will see real air dominance over haftar and most likely that would be a game over for him
His backers probably will make a win win deal with Turkey but he will be hunted for all the crimes that are done to civilians on a daily basis I could publish every day news/videos of dead non-armed libyans by haftar forces

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Haftar cannot do anything since his air supermacy for now is blocked by turkish air defense system+plus cheap TB2 yet very effective drone
I have no doubt that if things are critical for gna we will see direct turkish response for now I don’t think it’s needed maybe in the future if UAE or Egypt decide to up the air campaign
All gna has to do is to resist until Akinci enters mass production in 2021 then we will see real air dominance over haftar and most likely that would be a game over for him
His backers probably will make a win win deal with Turkey but he will be hunted for all the crimes that are done to civilians on a daily basis I could publish every day news/videos of dead non-armed libyans by haftar forces

LNA operates Pterodactyl II drones supplied by UAE which are far more capable albeit more expensive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAIG_Wing_Loong_II

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/mid...nese-drones-hunt-turkish-drones-libya-air-war

Plus Turkish drones are now in short supply due to EU embargo because of Turkish invasion of SDF last year. So GNA cannot count on Turkish drones.

Haftar cannot do anything since his air supermacy for now is blocked by turkish air defense system+plus cheap TB2 yet very effective drone
I have no doubt that if things are critical for gna we will see direct turkish response for now I don’t think it’s needed maybe in the future if UAE or Egypt decide to up the air campaign
All gna has to do is to resist until Akinci enters mass production in 2021 then we will see real air dominance over haftar and most likely that would be a game over for him
His backers probably will make a win win deal with Turkey but he will be hunted for all the crimes that are done to civilians on a daily basis I could publish every day news/videos of dead non-armed libyans by haftar forces

Also because Erdogan angered China because supporting East Turkestan secession so China sells attack planes to Haftar at discount.

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

about china
i must say what they have done in the last 40 years is simply breathtaking effort that only disciplined nation can do
I think that every nation has to have capable leader during the early stages of development but then eventually the system which was built takes over mao zedong was the guy which was the most important factor for china during 20th century succes but now if you ask the hard-working system which is built is enough to guide china if you ask me it doesn’t matter who will be the president because the system is so strong that even an average president couldn’t mess up things also the second most important thing is the society and their character
Chinese are much more hardworking dedicated to compete with the world they have desire to be in the top and they are doing for now good job
Chinese also have history as a big state throughout history this is something for me also important factor that could be pusher for a certain nation to rise like a phoenix exactly what happened to china they were poor they killed each other too much in the last 200 years also japanese killed lot of them during ww2 but the myth about Chinese power plus strong capable leader like mao raised from a poor third world country to the second most powerful country after US
Indians are lazy people they also don’t have winner mentality and they don’t have efficient political system because their society is too much divided across ideological lines they also have slave mentality because much of their history they were under foreign rule in short they will never manage to pull out something close to what china did
Only good thing for indians is that they have very big population and their demographic numbers continue to skyrocket this means they will receive lot of investments from the world but I don’t have hope in them

this is about the first part

I usually try not to have prejudices towards any ethnic group but sometimes no matter how i try to distance myself simply I cannot ignore it with that being said for example armenians greeks had more rights than arabs and other non-turkish muslims yet they have changed sides in WW1 and of course retribution was likely to occur now both of these nations are filled with state sponsored hate so it’s obvious to have some reservations towards them same could be said with serbs and their historical hate for muslims few hours ago i tried to explain to a singapore guy about serbs he consistently thought i was against china then i understood he’s lost case and abandoned discussion even though I only said it was a cheap propaganda played by serbian president and china’s ongoing efforts to do dalage control since everyone i know in my state blames china for the virus i guess same could be said for majority of the people around the world

Arabs had right to revolt as they were neglected but revolt happened in the wrong time and they choose to side with enemy then actually turks and anatolian muslims suffered a lot basically turks were on the verge of genocide if you think that arab muslims are hated the most i can tell that’s nothing compared to the hate europeans feel for muslim turks eventually ataturk won the war and that’s why all turks love him because he saved us from being cleansed
Before ww1 there were balkan wars first muslims were purged from balkans then they wanted to purge muslims from anatolia and then they would go down in arabia doing the same thing unfortunately for them they were stopped in turkish-greek war 1919-22
It was ataturk and his effort which inspired syrian and iraqi nationalists to fight against european colonisers
Later both arab and turkish political regimes did immense demonization of each other’s ethnic groups and here you have foreigners riding the show in ME for the last 90 years
I am nationalist but a pragmatic one who is more interested if all people in Turkey are loyal or not i have no problem with diversity as long the guy is ready to give his life for the country but if a certain group wants some language or similar rights then my answer they will get the armenian treatment
In anatolia there’s only one flag one nation everyone who wants to respect that is welcomed to join those who want fakestan are free to go to northern iraq before they are exterminated

about macedonians
My advice to you is not to call macedonians as north macedonians it’s no problem for me or any other muslim minority living here but if you meet meet a macedonian in your life never ever ask him a question like this cause he will strangle you hahahahah
Macedonia is probably the only one slavic orthodox(christian) majority country which is pro-turkish oriented which is relief for me imagine if I was born in serbia or greece or bulgaria
Bulgarians actually have controversial origins
They claim to be slavic(ethic) orthodox christians but the reality is that there were turks settled in what is known today as bulgaria after slavs came to Balkan Peninsula they mixed with turks(local populations) basically they were turks who were slavicized from pagans became orthodox chritians and the most interesting fact they kept the name bulgarians even though it’s turkish origin term used by pagan turkish population settled before slav arrived
Please note that there are lots of different turks who developed distinct identities so a turk in bulgaria was called itself differently than a turk in anatolia(i am talking about various turkish tribes in 10th century)
Basically speaking all people on balkans are mixed between themselves and they are claiming certain parts of neighboring countries so you have irredentism like greater greece which claims territories from bulgaria macedonia turkey albania greater bulgaria which claims territories from turkey greece and whole macedonia greater albania which claims western part of macedonia territory from greece from serbians and from montenegro
greater serbia which claims whole bosnia big part of croatia whole macedonia territories from albania whole kosovo and you croatia which claims part from serbia slovenia and bosnia also croatia and slovenia have sea dispute between themselves and with italy
In short balkan is the mother of disputes only reason why ME took the crown from us as the most sectarian region is because we balkan people(muslims christians and various ethnic groups) have exterminated each other so now demographics are so fucked there’s no new generation for a war all young people flee to europe for better life
I like albanians since they are my muslim brothers plus they are also pro-turkey oriented(i am excluding christian albanians) but in macedonia and kosovo almost 99% are muslim so maybe I shouldn’t even mention christian albanians
Also as i said at the beginning macedonians are rare orthodox christian ethnic group that generally has positive feelings towards turks so i am personally in a difficult position
Albanians have separatistic tendencies and they are favorite player of US while serbs are favorite russian player bosnians are favorite turkish player croats/slovenians are pro german/eu/vatican oriented bulgarians and greek people are usually pro russia due to religious feelings but if talk about foreign policy they play with both sides recently we can see greeks forming alliance with US/Israel
Reason why i am writing this is because balkan is like bomb waiting to explode
If albanians do something in macedonia then all borders disputes are open and that means war in balkans everyone would try to correct injustices they suffered from the west/turks policies
Albanians have two states and they also enjoy rights in macedonia as if they are majority so you know such sentiment triggers dissatisfaction for macedonians also the name change of the country was done in the most possible treacherous way so things
If i have to give comparison with ME albanians are actually the kurds of balkans
I will now post the image of our president and the prime minister of bulgaria i leave to you to decide if macedonians are bulgarians
View attachment 616681
View attachment 616682
Macedonians are exclusive white bulgarians are mixed they have white people but also lot of dark skinned
If we do comparison about all people(macedonians turks albanians serbs bosnians excluding roma people) versus all people in bulgaria the result is same we are 99% white they(bulgaria) are mixed
About the rest of your post i will answer it tomorrow since I plan to get hell out of balkan i will tell which country has the best political system but this country isn’t my first choice northern neighbor of this country is my favorite place
I am writing from an iPhone so itnwas easier from me to reply like this without quoting the post
@ArabianEmpires&Caliphates

Yes, the reason why China is lightyears ahead of India is due to cultural differences and dare I say the difference in IQ and historical accomplishments. China was a strong centralized state for much of its history as well and it is a very homogenous country too (ethnically, although I have read that Han Chinese can be divided into various regional groups with different dialects much like Arabs for instance - usually the case with such large ethnic groups) unlike India which is probably one of the most diverse countries on the planet in terms of ethnic groups, cultures, races not to mention that useless caste system that perpetually keeps 100's millions (or did in the past) of potentially talented people.

I also think a lot of this has to do with the Chinese civil war which was very bloody and the humiliations that China suffered by the hands of the Japanese and Western powers. It created a ruthless system that clamps down on any unrest and keeps the population in a tight grip. Also controlling 1.4 billion people cannot be easy regardless of any system in place.

I agree with your comment about the strength of the Chinese system.

Agree with everything that you wrote, as I echoed much of the same.

As for the collapse of the Ottoman empire (which in many ways was Arabized or at least hugely influenced by Arab civilization for reasons that I can elaborate on such as language, Ottoman Turkish was almost an Arabic dialect, script (Arabic script basically with 4 additional letters of how many additional letters there were, the titles were all Arabic, the entire system was inherited from previous Arab caliphates, most of the land and people, culture, influences of cuisine, music etc.) this is a very complex story. You have to remember that Arabs used to rule the Caliphate and dominate the Middle East from the emergence of Islam to the early 1500's with the rise of the Ottomans in the region. Also how in mind that what Turks (some) consider as "betrayal", the same thing Arabs can say about what took place in 1517 when the last Abbasid Caliph was forced to abdicate. Also have in mind that much of the Arab world and many of the ills that we face today, is a result of 400 years of Ottoman neglect (mostly) of the Arab world. Have in mind that less than half of the Arab world was part of the Ottoman empire and that local rulers mostly ruled the Arab territory but those local rulers had various degree of autonomy and at the end of the day Istanbul pulled most of the strings. So from the perspective of most Arabs, what was the heyday of Turkey/Anatolia (in the Middle Ages at least) was the opposite for us Arabs. Which is natural, 1 parties success is often another parties fall.

If the Ottomans had invested more of their energy in Arab lands, gave the BIGGEST ethnic group in the empire a FAIR representation, things might have been very different. Long before the Arab revolt, large parts of the empire revolved, from the Balkans (which you are familiar with) to other parts. Even within Anatolia. Not to mention that many Anatolians/Turks wanted to abolish the status quo (Young Turks) and that this was a time period where ethnic nationalism was on the rise fueled by Western influences. That the Arabs later were betrayed by the Brits and French after doing most of the fighting is nothing new either. The strong party will use the weaker one. I am giving you the Arab perspective here (majority of Islamists not included) of a complex topic. Anyway it was inevitable, Ottoman presence was always relatively weak in the Arab world with the exception of Syria and Northern Iraq. In fact you could call the Ottoman empire a federal entity with some parts that were prioritized DISPROPORTIONALLY such as the small Balkans (with all due respect - but this was mostly due to the location in Europe I assume) and others largely neglected (most Arab lands).

But contrary to popular belief, there were not any wars between Arabs and Ottomans initially as various Arab rulers (back then Arabs were divided into many kingdoms, some strong, others weak) invited the Ottomans to fight against the Portuguese/Europeans who were trying to invade large areas of Arabia and spread their influence in the Arab world and later the strongest party (Ottomans) back then, "grew into the body".

In any case have in mind that many Arabs fought under the Ottoman banner which cannot be ignored. Back then people were mostly fixated on religion and most ordinary people could not read or write (same case in Anatolia) so if they heard the Imam tell them that the "Caliph/Sultan" was in need of help and that this was a religious duty, those people really had little choices. There are many other uncomfortable events that mostly took part in the Levant (for instance ask Arab Christians or people of Lebanon/Syria/Palestine or the conduct of Ottomans in Hijaz before and after the uprising. In Yemen Ottomans were defeated and always had a hard time (much like Southern KSA) so feelings there are not hateful. A bit like in parts of the Maghreb. But this is history, remember that Arabs and Anatolians have close ties on almost every front (whether we like it or not) so no need to look at complex history in a simplistic black and white manner. Remember that the future is what is crucial and having cordial and mutually beneficial relations is always preferable.

I have nothing against Ataturk. I am sure that if I were a Turk I would have respected him a lot as well but maybe I would not have agreed with everything that he did or the Kemalism and maybe "worship" like attitude. I also dislike seeing the reverence that leaders get in the Arab world like if they were infallible individuals.

I know of the events that occurred in Balkan after WW1 and they were ugly and regrettable just like previous events regardless of side.

Well, I am an Arab patriot and I value the diversity in the Arab world and echo your feelings. I share your feelings about separatists.

Well, I used to call you Macedonians before but after the official name change of your country, I am using the official name but I know very well about the controversy regarding this name change and the history of that region and who can claim Alexander the Great of Macedon and all that.

But this leads me to another question. Greece has an older region called Macedonia (neighboring) and obviously Alexander the Great was of Greek heritage. Now the question is, are the Macedonians the offspring of those ancient Greek Macedonians or are they a mixture of them with Slavic input? In such a case it must be joint heritage.

I think this might be explained with Macedonia having the largest group of people who identify as Turks outside of Bulgaria in the Balkans. That and Turkish investments. I also read that there is a native Slavic Muslim ethnic group in Macedonia (Gorani if I am not wrong) so that might help too.

Are Bulgarians not mostly of a local stock (Thracians) while the early Bulgars were a Turkic people originally from what is today Tatarstan/Ural?

I can tell you that genetically (from what I have seen of those populations in the Balkans) the Bulgarians, Macedonians and Albanians are the closest to Middle Eastern populations which can be explained that most of those people are descendants of the early agriculturist (Neolithic) from the modern-day Arab world and Anatolia who spread farming to Europe. Greece are even more "Middle Eastern" in origin let alone Cypriots who are even closer, also geographically being next door to Lebanon/Syria/Levant. Lookwise I also get a more "eastern vibe" about Bulgarians, Macedonians and Albanians than other Balkan people like say Croatians, Serbs (most of them), Slovenians, Bosnians etc.

Anyway the Balkans, despite its small size, is probably the most similar region to the Middle East in terms of political tensions, lol. Which we unfortunately saw during the recent Balkan Wars.

No problem, enjoyed your post (wish we had more of such posts on PDF), and take all of your time.

Why don't you just migrate to Turkey? Is it not fairly easy for a Macedonian of paternal Turkish ancestry to get a Turkish passport and I imagine that you already speak and write Turkish? I know that many Turks in Europe (Arabs too) are returning to their own countries if they are well educated and have a strong identity and want to contribute to their parents/grandparents original lands.

 

[Ansu fati]

LNA operates Pterodactyl II drones supplied by UAE which are far more capable albeit more expensive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAIG_Wing_Loong_II

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/mid...nese-drones-hunt-turkish-drones-libya-air-war

Plus Turkish drones are now in short supply due to EU embargo because of Turkish invasion of SDF last year. So GNA cannot count on Turkish drones.



Also because Erdogan angered China because supporting East Turkestan secession so China sells attack planes to Haftar at discount.

pkk will be massacred the question is when
West will have the privilege to accept shitjava kurds since they love them so much
There’s already domestic engine developed and delivered to baykar makina 1 year ago pure logic says that they have already did the integration of the engine into TB2
But there are turkish naval assets as well as air defense systems that are more than enough to counter any aircraft including drones
It’s good to see people using the real name East Turkestan
No turkish government nor turks don’t encourage uyghur secession simply because it’s not economically achievable I would like east turkestan to remain part of china but china has to respect the autonomy status they VOLUNTARILY GAVE TO UYGHURS

 

[Ansu fati]

Each country has its specific history. Tunisia is a small country with a small population. Largely homogenous. There are no large ethnic, religious, sectarian, racial differences. Not many natural resources for corrupt leaderships to take advantage of. Close to Italy/Europe. Yet it has many weaknesses, a weak military, no political/geopolitical influence in the neighborhood, lack of development in the countryside, not the wealthiest country. On the other hand they have a good education system inherited from the French and past rulers were reformists and pioneers on some fronts of their time giving Tunisia a distinctive position in the Maghreb. I always compare Tunisia with Lebanon (the good things of Lebanon) minus the sectarian division and religious/ethnic divisions that have torn Lebanon apart historically and today as well (politically).

But to be honest with you, what is a multiparty system and the ability to vote every 4 years of importance if most people are electing idiots and each new government is more busy trying to destroy what the predecessor did (due to political disagreements) rather than move the country forward?

My ideal idea of a perfect society (strictly political and no religion involved in my example) is a meritocracy where only the most talented people (on each field) make the decisions for the greater benefit of the people and nation. However most of such capable people (at least in the West) don't want anything to do with politics but prefer the business world and to keep out of the limelight.

I could see a constitutional monarchy emerging in KSA with the royal family acting like a national symbol and a party system but I am afraid that people would be voting based on affiliation whether tribal, clan, provincial and whatever benefits them. Much like what occurs today with the rich largely voting on parties to the right and the more poor preferring socialist/social democratic parties.

I think what is the most important for the cohesion of the nation is a common destiny and a common history, language, traditions, culture, social norms etc. although most people are only interested in the basics needs being met such as security, prosperity, prospects, education, food on the table, enough money to engage in your interests and create something for your offspring and yourself and the general pleasures of life that people enjoy in all parts of the world. That and freedom which depends on the culture aside from universal like freedoms.

I agree about Tunisia but as you said they uave good education and now they have healthy political system(previously MB influenced ruling party gave the power to the new secular ruling party which is something that should be set as example yet they are all one homogeneous society i guess this also was crucial why political parties despite having ideological differences peacefully coexist) they have weak military but i see big effort is being made to change that in the next 5-10 years I expect Tunisia to be Switzerland of Africa/ME
I think the best option for the KSA would be if they copy UK political system but as you said voting for your tribe instead of voting for the best candidate would ruin the benefits of the system
Another option is turkish/american/french presidential executive government but that would mean complete abolishment of kingsom which is yet another problematical situation
You know better than me how things are in saudi society but i guess if vision2030 is fully implemented then we will see a lot of social change as a result of the economic development because no matter you try to keep your conservative upbringing you will eventually embrace some social liberal habits as the time pass
For example both UAE and Qatar do have parliaments yes they are still effectively absolute kingdoms but some laws are being done by the parliament as symbolic move for now but i expect this role to significantly increase in the future maybe jordanian-style government(king and multiparty system) would be perfect option
You have a good point about multiparty system i guess no system is perfect but there are some states(am speaking about top20) that have national interest that’s has been predefined and every party which comes to power would follow the lines actually the biggest difference between two opposing parties would be about economy and/or some internal questions but in foreign policy there won’t be disagreements best example is US no matter the great difference in ideology betweendemocrats and republicans I don’t see deviation in behavior regarding ME China or other topic that’s part of the foreign policy of course the situation is completely different in domestic politics but I suppose that’s the part where they are “allowed” to argue with their ideological differences
your idea about perfect society is something i fully endorse but we all know that’s utopia
Maybe canada the favorite country I talked about is the closest thing to such ideal society

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

@Ansu fati

We seem to be in agreement overall so not much for me to elaborate on.

As for Libya, I firmly believe that a power sharing agreement between the warring parties (short term solution) and afterwards the introduction of federalism in Libya is the only way forward.

This article below is a good read and why GNA and LNA both are irrelevant on the long run and why they are just symptoms of underlining problems/challenges in Libyan society.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/does-federalism-have-a-future-in-libya/

BTW it is a mistake to believe that federalism weakens the central government. USA, Russia and Germany (UK too), Canada, Australia, Switzerland etc. are federal entities.

I have always been of the belief that federalism is the future in perpetually unruly countries and that regional Arab federalism could create 3-4 strong regional blocs in the Arab world if implemented effectively.

 

[Ansu fati]

@Ansu fati

We seem to be in agreement overall so not much for me to elaborate on.

As for Libya, I firmly believe that a power sharing agreement between the warring parties (short term solution) and afterwards the introduction of federalism in Libya is the only way forward.

This article below is a good read and why GNA and LNA both are irrelevant on the long run and why they are just symptoms of underlining problems/challenges in Libyan society.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/does-federalism-have-a-future-in-libya/

BTW it is a mistake to believe that federalism weakens the central government. USA, Russia and Germany (UK too), Canada, Australia, Switzerland etc. are federal entities.

I have always been of the belief that federalism is the future in perpetually unruly countries and that regional Arab federalism could create 3-4 strong regional blocs in the Arab world if implemented effectively.

Federal system is great as long as we are talking about homogeneous society and if you ask me I believe federal system is actually very effective way of splitting the work between central and local communities
america australia and canada are immigrant countries they don’t have traditional national identity like Turkey and Europe so I’m not surprised that federalism works in these countries perfectly Germany is predominantly german so the federalism was made to make the country more efficient russia is controversial example as they had serious problems in the caucus(chechen war) and I believe as the muslim population increases similar problems would appear again
Only real multiethnic society that is true example for federal system is Switzerland but this is special place where most money reserves are kept plus the the countries from where 4 main ethnic groups have originated are strong nato allies without open questions(italy france germany and I can’t remember the last country)
Federal system in a country that has separatist minority is pure nightmare and would mean endless conflict in that country hence why I support strong centralized system more
Libya has too much clans too much tribes that means too much division in the country which can lead to eventual civil war again
Gaddafi’s major mistake was that he didn’t allowed more civilian participation in the country’s affairs and probably his biggest miscalculation was that he relied too much on oil as you said most people may tolerate dictatorship-style government in exchange for security and normal life(getting married peaceful life basic economic comfort etc) but if the economy is screwed they will rise sooner or later I have a feeling that if libya had industrial economy gaddaffi would be still president today
Syria is another example that oil-based economy is unsustainable in the long term when your population is rising exponentially
I think first libyan land forces and airforce should be rebuilt and then we can talk about federal government because if you give increased local authority to a minority population/tribe that has different views from majority and if you don’t have strong army to control them then very soon you will have separatism problem

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

Federal system is great as long as we are talking about homogeneous society and if you ask me I believe federal system is actually very effective way of splitting the work between central and local communities
america australia and canada are immigrant countries they don’t have traditional national identity like Turkey and Europe so I’m not surprised that federalism works in these countries perfectly Germany is predominantly german so the federalism was made to make the country more efficient russia is controversial example as they had serious problems in the caucus(chechen war) and I believe as the muslim population increases similar problems would appear again
Only real multiethnic society that is true example for federal system is Switzerland but this is special place where most money reserves are kept plus the the countries from where 4 main ethnic groups have originated are strong nato allies without open questions(italy france germany and I can’t remember the last country)
Federal system in a country that has separatist minority is pure nightmare and would mean endless conflict in that country hence why I support strong centralized system more
Libya has too much clans too much tribes that means too much division in the country which can lead to eventual civil war again
Gaddafi’s major mistake was that he didn’t allowed more civilian participation in the country’s affairs and probably his biggest miscalculation was that he relied too much on oil as you said most people may tolerate dictatorship-style government in exchange for security and normal life(getting married peaceful life basic economic comfort etc) but if the economy is screwed they will rise sooner or later I have a feeling that if libya had industrial economy gaddaffi would be still president today
Syria is another example that oil-based economy is unsustainable in the long term when your population is rising exponentially
I think first libyan land forces and airforce should be rebuilt and then we can talk about federal government because if you give increased local authority to a minority population/tribe that has different views from majority and if you don’t have strong army to control them then very soon you will have separatism problem

Libyan clans and tribes (whether Arab or Arab-Berber mixes) mostly have cordial ties (they have all been intermarrying each other for centuries, some cases 1400 + years) regardless of the region of Libya. The problem is (as usual) that certain opportunistic with vested economic interests with ambitions of power (like anywhere else) are taking advantage of the chaos that has been Libya since Gaddafi was removed (in fact since the monarchy was removed which was probably the most stable period in modern Libyan history) and taking advantage of the underlining problems that the Gaddafi regime created (sharp divide between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica - the two most populous historical regions in Libya.

Libya is a homogenous society as well. 99.99% are Sunni Muslims. Almost all Libyans are Arabs or Arab-Berber mixes. Tuareg, a Berber speaking ethnic group, are the only 1 of 2 significant minorities and they are Muslims as well and largely have the same culture and all of them speak Libyan Arabic. Their numbers are not big.

The other minority are those people who live in the South and Southeast (deep Sahara desert) are the Toubou people who have never been a political or economic part of Libya. Mostly a secluded nomadic population of a totally different ethnic group (Nilo-Saharan language group) and I believe their numbers are very small.



All it takes is for a strong central Libyan state to emerge. Due to the geography of Libya that state cannot be solely centered in and around Tripoli as otherwise the remaining portion of Libya risk getting neglected/removed from the power decisions.

The difference of the population split between the two main Libyan regions is not big therefore power sharing is the only way forward. Tripoli and Benghazi should have an almost equal say. There is no other solution.

Libyan should try to limit all foreign influences and join hands together and jointly decide what is the best curse for Libya and Libyans. Nowadays Libya has turned into a playground of foreign powers who all want their piece of the cake that is being offered. The losers are Libyans and Libya.

The Libyan situation is awfully similar to Yemen with the exception that there is a sectarian angle in Yemen although that did not really exist historically given that Zaidi Shias and Sunnis (Shafi'is) are very close so actually sectarianism is not the main theme but once again the fight to control the country (North and South divide in Yemen).

The only thing that prevents all this is a strong central state that is as inclusive as possible.

Imagine a weak Turkish central state, you will likely have power struggles (that in worst case scenario could turn into violence) between the largely liberal/nationalistic West, conservative interior and the Kurds in the east all fighting for power and control. In fact we have seen such power struggles in Anatolia already when the central government was weak.

So all this can be summed up into the necessity to have strong and inclusive/representative (as much as possible) central governments/states that will make as many people as possible happy and alienate as few as possible.

The most difficult part is to construct a strong state with strong and inclusive state institutions. You don't do this overnight after decades of neglect and nepotism. Nor if your country is turning into a brothel with the entire neighborhood meddling all for the benefit of themselves and not Libya or Libyans. The location of Libya is not helping either. The story of many conflict zones in the world unfortunately.

 

[ArabianEmpires&Caliphates]

Looks like my prediction will be fulfilled.

Tripolitania will remain Tripolitania and Cyrenaica will remain Cyrenaica. Libya is after all one of the most tribal Arab countries out there.

Nothing much will change in the greater picture, LNA (Haftar - incompetent much like Al-Sarraj - both groups are incompetent) will control the vast majority of the Libyan territory and most of the oil and gas while GNA will remain in Tripoli and surroundings.

There are no good sides and preferably a third Libyan side would emerge (probably will) eventually.

@Falcon29

What is your take on this mess in Libya? Each group is accusing the other of violations, corruption, terrorism, civilians depending on which town and village are accusing the LNA and GNA of just that etc.

Haftar to me seems very incompetent and his history in Libya is known. I don't see what UAE and Egypt see in him. On the other side GNA are no different, just the other side of the coin. Coming to power from abroad in the West with Italian/Western etc. aid.

Active outsiders, for instance Turkey, is only interested in the EEZ.

As I wrote, if Arab integration had occurred long ago (not in the interests of most of the current regimes in power - hence the need for their removal long-term), as it should have, none of what we see in Libya, Syria and Yemen would have occurred. The locals bear the biggest responsibility for the current madness. Their petty rivalries turn their country into a mess.

 

[Falcon29]

Looks like my prediction will be fulfilled.

Tripolitania will remain Tripolitania and Cyrenaica will remain Cyrenaica. Libya is after all one of the most tribal Arab countries out there.

Nothing much will change in the greater picture, LNA (Haftar - incompetent much like Al-Sarraj - both groups are incompetent) will control the vast majority of the Libyan territory and most of the oil and gas while GNA will remain in Tripoli and surroundings.

There are no good sides and preferably a third Libyan side would emerge (probably will) eventually.

@Falcon29

What is your take on this mess in Libya? Each group is accusing the other of violations, corruption, terrorism, civilians depending on which town and village are accusing the LNA and GNA of just that etc.

Haftar to me seems very incompetent and his history in Libya is known. I don't see what UAE and Egypt see in him. On the other side GNA are no different, just the other side of the coin. Coming to power from abroad in the West with Italian/Western etc. aid.

Active outsiders, for instance Turkey, is only interested in the EEZ.

As I wrote, if Arab integration had occurred long ago (not in the interests of most of the current regimes in power - hence the need for their removal long-term), as it should have, none of what we see in Libya, Syria and Yemen would have occurred. The locals bear the biggest responsibility for the current madness. Their petty rivalries turn their country into a mess.

Honestly Libya is the only arena in Arab world that I don't understand. I don't quite understand what their disputes are and if there is a tribal dispute as well. The LNA as you said is recycling old ideas with the strongman doctrine and the GNA from what I see is a mixture of tribes/militias(each seem to be doing their own thing) and doesn't really seem like a proper governing body.

So if tribes can't get along, then this is our responsibility and I think tribes have too much power or expect too much attention. It's good to respect tribes and develop harmony with them but if everyone wants a piece of his cake, if you will, then I don't see how they move on from this traditional mentality unto a more modern form of government.

I guess I'd like to see more Algerian/Tunisian involvement in Libya and would like them to work together with Egypt to meet each others security needs but also advance a real form of government. Whether that means Haftar and Siraj resign or something else. Because we need lasting solutions that people are satisfied with and not just placing a band aid on the wound.

As for Turkey, I don't extent of their involvement and I don't quite understand how the EEZ agreement will work. I think if their plan is to keep Tripoli gov't alive then I guess that's not a terrible thing if it can push both sides to negotiate with each other. I don't mind cooperation with Turkey since they are a more friendly nation and share same faith as us whereas other regional nation which you know is hostile and trying to push different culture/beliefs and their involvement in most nations is mostly negative. So I understand Turkey's stance on Libya/Syria but in case of Egypt even though I did not like what happened with Morsi and the Rabaa situation I think Egypt needs to remain stable with its military style rule which is a system that works for Egypt over long periods of time. It's honestly the military which rules and not Sisi or anyone else and an unstable Egypt will be catastrophic for whole region including Gaza.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

LNA drone gun blasting away at GNA drone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1260292037729038338