Killing India’s hidden ‘Cold Start’ strategy

[Manas]

As far as I understand CS isn't about testing Pakistan's Nuclear threshold, but to put few quick punches before international community intervene .

It's specially prepared against occasions like Parliament attack or Mumbai style attack ,when India supposedly thrashes Pakistan military in case of an Pak based terrorist misadventure and pull out without occupying any enemy territory hence not providing enough ground for a suicidal nuclear response from Pak.

Its a fine plan and India should go all the way make arrangements for implementation of CS . With clear demonstrated intent the threat act as big deterrent against Mumbai like attacks.

 

[ameer219]

As far as I understand CS isn't about testing Pakistan's Nuclear threshold, but to put few quick pounces before international community intervene .

Sorry Sir, but I disagree that this doctrine will actually be effectiveness, especially in terms of achieving military, , assuming such doctrines is in place.

I have several questions to ask, regarding this doctrine

What is the probability of India be able to pull off " a few quick pounces", without retaliation from the Pakistan Army, assuming that the nuclear threshold has not crossed?In the recent 2001-2002 stand off, and Mumbai attacks, Pakistan deployed its army from the Afghan border to the Indian border, showing its willingness to deter the attacks. Due to the smaller size of Pakistan, deployment will occur more rapidly, and assuming that India deploys at the same rate as Pakistan, don't you think its still hard to pull off such an attack?

Assuming another Mumbai Style attacks occur, and India attacked Pakistan, don't you think the international community, especially USA,within hours, will condemn the attack and would advice India to pull off its attacks? And assume India refuse, do you think the international community will allow, the nuclear threshold to be crossed?

I believe there is too much complications in place, to actually implement the Cold War Doctrine.

It's specially prepared against occasions like Parliament attack or Mumbai style attack ,when India supposedly thrashes Pakistan military in case of an Pak based terrorist misadventure and pull out without occupying any enemy territory hence not providing enough ground for a suicidal nuclear response from Pak.

Thrashing is a "powerful" word to use here. Let me remind you again that Pakistan has its own military cards, and we have have proved this a countless of time. India definitely have the higher ground with technology and weapons, better than Pakistan, but I have yet to seen a weapon India posses that is termed a game-changer.

 

[Manas]

@ameer219

CS is still a doctrine stage, i don't see ,may some expert put more light on this ,Indian having the wherewithal to operationalize in 5 to 10 years.

The enemy(Pakistan) reaction and response u talked about i assume was fully taken in to account while preparing this doctrine.All i'm saying its a brilliant plan and India should develop enough capability execute it successfully in future.

I'm sure Pakistan in its part is thinking about strategies the counter CS and will continue to do that in future.That doesn't question the viability of CS,if anything it actually demonstrates the potency of CS.

 

[Avatar]

I dont think the CS would have been made public if the Indian side had not already considered the developments that would take place after making it public. Obviously they must be more than prepared for a CS that they are giving the possible enemy an opportunity to prepare themselves. Either there will be a damn good CS or there will be no CS.

 

[notorious_eagle]

TaimiKhan,

Whatever calculations the InA brass might have done remains a classified thing, however, its seems the InA has finally started moving its thinking from a deep battle of attrition to quicker battle of annihilation. Whether they are right in that, is a different debate.

Indeed, it seems that IA's war planners are changing their strategy and only time will tell whether its successful or not. But don't you think your underestimating PA's war planners, they are also thinking on the same lines and planning to come up with a counter.

The recent exercises of Azm E Nau are a testament to PA's planning as they mobilized their Armour in a matter of days working closely with the Air Force in field exercises. Full credit to General Kayani for bringing the synergy between the Air Force and Army, as after the Kargil war both these institutions didn't see each other eye to eye.

I dont think the CS would have been made public if the Indian side had not already considered the developments that would take place after making it public. Obviously they must be more than prepared for a CS that they are giving the possible enemy an opportunity to prepare themselves. Either there will be a damn good CS or there will be no CS.

For now it appears that there is no CS, there has been no official doctrine change on part of the IA. If this doctrine was operational, IA would have definitely attacked PA but didnt. This means this doctrine is still on the drawing board, and no signs of this doctrine being operational.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

IA has 13 Corps. Of these 3 are strike corps while rest are defensive corps. During Parakram, whenever strike corps elements were moved, it was easily tracked and the element of surprise was lost as to where a potential hindstani offensive might come from

key component of CSD is the need for massive and directed firepower. The IA artillery modernization program is however stuck in the mire of political scandals and appears headed nowhere. (Defence scandals continue to haunt Army's artillery plans - The Times of India)

it's just for public consumption and chest-thumping by their arm chair generals, though obviously it is criminal neglect to under-estimate their capability or dismiss it. It is an offensive posturing, and then they (and of course West) react and wonder why we don't redeploy our forces elsewhere

they go gung-ho about Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) and then at the same time talk about a decisive blow before Pakistan would retaliate or escalate the war (teenager logic).

wherever and whenever there is any strike on Pakistan, bhartis ought to be assured there will be an equally (if not more) punishing response from our side

 

[Storm Force]

Cold Start is a New Concept and is stil being evovled.

The Indian military are changing to the new INDO PAK STATUS QUO.

in 1970 India Pak where less than 5-1 in GDP diffference. Pakistans though the smaller power had the backing of both USA and China. Pakistan though numerically inferior had better weapons.

2011 THIS HAS CHANGED massively in india,s favour. The GDP gap is closer to 8-1 and will rise to 10-1 by 2020. This inturn means modernisation plans of military that are completely the oposite in nos and cost.

America now is a future strategic ally of india and Pakistan can no longer rely on absolute USA support. The West have massive mistrust of Pakistan and love the NEW rising/shinning india.

Pakistanis want to sit in the comfort that Cold Start will not work and india cannot plan for or build for such strategy.

I SAY that the indians are doing exactly that They are reshaping their military for a COLD START style concept.

ITS NOT READY TODAY but if they plan and they keep buying, building, inducting $$$$$$$$ then one day COLD START will be REAL

 

[Storm Force]

PS i think COLD START will never be a issue or threat IF the sub continent avoids a mumbai style attack.

That means no terrorist activity on either border. Shared intelligence and working together to avoid a COLD START threat.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

your generals would be better advised then to tape their mouths shut and avoid making provocative statements, just a thought

 

[Storm Force]

Abu.

I agree with you there many generals and politicians in india who feel that India needs to show its NEW found military and economic power by threatening smaller neighbours.

There is and was lately alot of media talk about surgical strikes almost intimating that Pakistan was a sitting duck and could do nothing about an attack.

This i feel sticks in Pakistani throats how the indians publically in national and international media talk about Cold Start.

I cant work out whether they act like this cause of over confidence or because they wish to avoid a future mumbai terror attack and want GOP to be on its toes to help avoid a similiar scenario.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

nothing sticks in our throats; but it does irritate people. Maybe you and the armchair generals don't understand the Pakistani psyche very well --both civilian and military.

as for media talk about surgical strikes, yes we heard those over and over again since 2008. All it was, was talk. No action taken at all

in fact, if i were indian i would be a bit embarassed by it; if they are so confident about some so-called decisive blow in such a short period while also assuming Pakistan wouldn't have time to respond --- is beyond ridiculous. Being the defender in such a scenario, you'd need a credible attacking force. And utilizing that would automatically render it more than just a squirmish or single strike. It would set off a chain reaction.

anyways, if or when such a mumbai type drama/fiasco is rehearsed and 'orchestrated' again, then we can wait and see how things will transpire


talk alone is cheap...

 

[FNFAL]

your generals would be better advised then to tape their mouths shut and avoid making provocative statements, just a thought

yeah and your generals should tape not only their mouths but hands as well before grabbing the seat of power.Time and again democracy has suffered bcoz sum power hungry general decided i need to set this country correct. Net result..Its all effed up in the end.

And that is where we differ frm you. Ya let the general make the "provacative" statement. Let him draw up a pic of bleak future .
But...BUT WE ALL KNOW, AND YOU ALSO KNOW, that the CIVILIAN , DEMOCRATICALLY CHOSEN GOVERNMENT will not do anything rash.
So have some trust in a democratically chosen goverment. If not ours , atleast have faith in yours so that your future generations are not proud of the fact that pakistan had the most military coups.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

yeah and your generals should tape not only their mouths but hands as well before grabbing the seat of power.Time and again democracy has suffered bcoz sum power hungry general decided i need to set this country correct. Net result..Its all effed up in the end.

that's for us to determine and worry about....I don't think you, being hindustani, need to worry about it

And that is where we differ frm you. Ya let the general make the "provacative" statement. Let him draw up a pic of bleak future .

But...BUT WE ALL KNOW, AND YOU ALSO KNOW, that the CIVILIAN , DEMOCRATICALLY CHOSEN GOVERNMENT will not do anything rash.

my vision is superb; no need for Caps-lock kiddo, it wont make your point any more heard or any more convincing. Yes, hopefully sardaar and the italian will know what is in their best interests

So have some trust in a democratically chosen goverment. If not ours , atleast have faith in yours so that your future generations are not proud of the fact that pakistan had the most military coups.

well first there needs to be faith in a civilian govt. that serves and does not lead the nation astray

is it a bit too much to ask for, who knows?

again, not your problem. And therefore, mind your own business and worry about your own multitude of problems.

My only point was that CSD, as absurd as it is, must be taken seriously and contingency plans and pre-determined responses should be analyzed. Especially given the nature of this increasingly troublesome, nuissance neighbour country

 

[Storm Force]

Abu are you suggesting that mumbai was a fiasco !!!!!!!

" anyways, if or when such a mumbai type drama/fiasco is rehearsed and 'orchestrated' again, then we can wait and see how things will transpire


talk alone is cheap...

Do you honestly think that when push comes to shove and lets say 200 more indians are killed by a TERROR attack that any state actor involved could with stand the repurcussions.

Remember INDIA has enormous world clout FAR MORE than Pakistan could muster.

I don,t think there will be a another terror attack mumbai style again certainly not involving any state support.

And the reason is because of COLD START threat.

Yes i actually believe that India,s rsponse, aggressive tones, threats of surgical strikes will prevent another fool hardy attempt like that.

 

[FNFAL]

that's for us to determine and worry about....I don't think you, being hindustani, need to worry about it

On the contrary All the more ....pakistan has no dearth of religious nut jobs.The VERY recent murder of the governor, and the talks of , wat do ya call em.. umm firangi ,imported guards for the innermost circle of zardari`s protection....well that speaks volumes about a horific future where an extremist just might have all the power to "respond" to a "provacation" from India.

my vision is superb; no need for Caps-lock kiddo, it wont make your point any more heard or any more convincing. Yes, hopefully sardaar and the italian will know what is in their best interests

Its not the physical 6/6 vision that i am concerned about oh so powerful aged one.Well maybe caps might drive home an idea.Their best interest also involves the nation.Maybe coz ppl actually voted them in power.

well first there needs to be faith in a civilian govt. that serves and does not lead the nation astray
is it a bit too much to ask for, who knows?

again, not your problem. And therefore, mind your own business and worry about your own multitude of problems.

Have you ever voted?? No??? Try once.
Anyhow an unstable neighbor will always be a concern, like it or not.

My only point was that CSD, as absurd as it is, must be taken seriously and contingency plans and pre-determined responses should be analyzed. Especially given the nature of this increasingly troublesome, nuissance neighbour country

Have you actually considered what would one third world nation get out of invading another poorer cousin, when stakes of damage are so high with nuclear weapons in the forray???
chest thumping -Its one thing ... getting a spike to blow up that fellow is another .