Killing India’s hidden ‘Cold Start’ strategy

[SQ8]

.....
... We all make mistakes. One who learns from them and adjust quickly ends up as the winner.....

This is the keynote..
And for the past 67 years.. India seems to be only one learning.

 

[rockstarIN]

You said it

 

[Trichy]

I am amazed that India and Indians can even contemplate that an eight times smaller Pakistan is going to attack.

Its like a twenty four year old young lad being afraid of a three year kid.

BS: if the three year kid have a gun! then 50 year old will also afraid if they have that also...

 

[Xeric]

Not sure what's the purpose of awaiting a clarification when you already know that i am wrong. Anyhow since you have asked i can briefly share my thoughts on the subject.

i wanted to see how deeply mistaken you actually are. Or is it deliberate?

Let's assume that even though top military brass has denied Cold Start(which i believe is nothing but tonic down diplomacy at best) yet not only it exist but we are working on it to increase our capability so that we can achieve what we are aiming for i.e. To teach pakistan a lesson if at all another mumbai happens.

If i look at the big ticket items that my country has acquired/ is planning to acquire in next 5-10 years it clearly suggest what i am saying above is not wrong in any way. What does it imply - to me Islamabad would have to join the Arms race whether she likes it or not in an unprecedented way,no??? Isn't it obvious that the rule of engagement has changed now??? Not only islamabad has to arm herself to teeth to deny any tactical/strategic advantage to India for a full-fledge war but they also have to ensure they have enough for a short and swift war.

Look under such a tight budgetory condition with millions devastated by funds you still had to increase your defence budget. Does that ring a bell at all??? Just to give you an example if i look at war's we have fought in the past one strategy that has been applied by PAF is to have a pre-emtive strike on our Air bases so as to deny us our numerical superiority, right??? Now with the kind of fighters that India is fielding at the moment and the kind of fighters India is going to induct in next 10 years are you telling me that it has/will have no impact on Pak budget??? 3 AC, nuclear submarines, ABM system, two 5 Generation fighter programmes etc etc has/will have no impact on Pak budget?? How come???? Since you say that you are well aware of Cold Start doctorine and know its objective very well yet i would like to re-phrase them.

A point answer to your bable:

1-When was the exact instance when Pakistan was not exactly in an 'arms race' with india?

2-When was the last time we (or for that matter you) have a cut on your defence budgets? What i see is a steady increase every year since our inception. And i am mostly talking about the 'era' before the CS. Secondly, as per you claims we people have gone paranoid over CSD and you psyops (Gosh!) is indeed working. So how did it impact are defence budget since the not so mysterious CSD revealed itself to the world?

3-Now this is torturous; talking of 10-15 years from today. Man you people such persistent suckers (that's a joke) that you dont even feel any kind of shame (this is not a joke) when you talk of india becoming the next superpower in 3020 or india reaching Mars in 4020 or for that matter india acquiring some James Bond kinda weaponry in 2050. Most surprisingly you people like to compare your FUTURE with our PRESENT!! You talk of indian going hyper sonic in 2015 and then you compare Pakistan by saying, hey look at your present state of affairs - all that terrorism, flood and stuff. Who knows what Pakistan would be in 2015?

See, we have been surviving all the odds. We survived the sanctions, in 2001-02 they said india would just eat Pakistan but instead india went back with a bitten tongue, so were the surgical strikes (the CSD was very much workable then).

You know, the difference between you and us is that you like to boast about your monies and make most of the defence stuff through own expenses. We on the other side some times have to beg, steal or borrow (though not literally) to make up the imbalance.

They also said during 2002-02 escalation that we'll see if Pakistan can sustain (economically) a full military deployment all along the IB for a year. The we'll kill Pakistan without a fight kinda BS, but we all saw that we stood there eye ball to eye ball till the time you didnt recede.

i was not here on PDF (nor was the PDF itself) in 1999 when you did the bomb. But i am sure had we and PDF been around here back then, you all would have monkeyed around after you exploded the bomb and asked the exact question as you ask today; what would Pakistan do now? But then we all know that the indian 'joy' was quite short lived.

We have some tricks up our sleeves and you have yours. 6 decades have passed and numerous others would also in future, but Pakistan would remain india's nemesis (or should i say vice versa?). It aint gonna change man.

Till the time you people would keep coming up with 'shockers' like CSD, Limited and Two Front Wars, we would also continue to 'game on'!



It's absurd that you people so easily think that with a few MRCAs and a nuke sub you would totally shift the balance in your favour, so had you thought in '78, '99, '01 and '09 and the it's still counting.


i dont know what we would do when you actually tilt the balance towards your side once you 'actually' get that shinny gadgetry on your inventory. But if we follow the past trends, the future is not that difficult to predict, atleast in our case.

COld Start in layman term means the moment Political Class gives a go, have a punitive action in Pak on multiple fronts(land-sea-air). Get control of some area(ensuring nuclear threshold is not crossed) and get your defenses in Place before international pressure puts the conflict to a halt. Then use the captured land as bargaining tool. Do you agree???

Believe me you dont need my 'agreement' on this

If yes then your counter step is to ensure you have every answer to whatever we throw at you. Here time is not a luxuary. You have to deny us any move within your territory and to do that you have to keep upgrading your firepower irrespective of the state of your economy. Now one cannot plan thinking that there cannot be any full-fledge war for some time, so we have time to catch up once economy allows. With cold start india has raised the bars and Pakistan has to be on her toes all the time. Terrorist attacks can happen any time with and there real potential for us to lock horns. For example viz-a-viz China we are taking our won sweet time to upgrade ourselves. Do you have the same luxuary viz-a-viz India??? Another terrorist attack and all bets are off, no????

Dont sweat my dear. You'll never know what i dont want to tell you.

And oh yes, another terrorist attack aint happening till the time the US is on our side (read the WoT continues) and/or india doesnt make up the short comings it had during 2001-02 (Prakaram) and 2009 (surgical strikes)

Look Pakistan being small always had the edge to concentrate their forces on borders quicker than India(obviously the side effect is lack of strategic depth) but because of this Cold-Start we are going to cut down our deployment process by a big margin and that is grave for Pakistan.

So you see, we are overwhelmed by 'paranoia', isnt that what you wanted??

Shivering...

With cold-start we are cutting down the breathing space that Pak had when it comes to locking horns with India. I mean having a thriving economy, ever increasing geo-political might, with every single arms supplier in the word luring India to get a pie of her lucrative wishlist, with Pak engaged in WOT on one end a real danger of Cold Start on other you are telling me that there is no impact on your budget, then i am sorry can't help.....Look i know you have nukes but that does not mean you want to use them. You do want to punish India conventionally because nukes means suicide....So i am not sure how you are asserting that i am wrong when i say Cold-Start is/going to dent your economy....

^^^ Till the time the US have its a$$ stuck in Afg do you think your leaders have the guts to move a single tank towards our direction? Man, this is COMMON SENSE!!!!!!!! You dont need Rommel to figure this out!

 

[Indian Gurkha]

And what neutral sources would that be... wikipedia..global security??
considering every Ashok,subramanian and Akash sitting free in call center's spends all his time on PR drive's editing and posting on such articles.


man u remind me of the PR mschinery in UTOPIA in 1984.

 

[Rafi]

india's window of doing anything, was ended when we went nuclear, the defence forces have been reorganized in such a way, that we can face multiple threats.

Really gotta thank the US and China, both of them are providing billions upon billions of dollars worth of state of the art equipment and training, and more in the pipe line to come. Because of this great assistance we are able to achieve parity and detterence, with out taxing us too much

 

[Areesh]

the world doesent want us too ...they fear that if we decide to come after the little boy the hill would no longer exist

Or in simple words you did wanted to go after the boy but even without a single bullet fired you lost dozens of soldiers and went back home with some body bags.

 

[Xeric]

Show me where MMS has failed as a statesman. As for the Army Chief's statements, thats his job! His job is to assure the people of India that the responsibility accorded to him by the elected GoI to lead the armed forces is being carried out ably. His job is to assure that in case there is a two front war, Indian armed forces are able and capable to handle such situations.

It seems like his job is quite similar to most of the indians here on PDF; to rant, flame and troll.


If you consider threatening countries with war and war mongering is your COAS's 'job', i must salute your soldier's 'grandeur'!

I ask you this, have you read the reports of the statement? The statement says that Indian forces should be and will be prepared for a two front war thrust upon it, and NOT open a two front war. Dont take things out of context. Never makes any sense.

^^ It is you and your leaders who put things out of context, care to tell us what exactly was a need to 'inform' the world that india needs to be ready for a 'two front war'?

All that "drama and theatrics" had the desired effect! Without moving any of our forces, without firing a single bullet, India forced pakistan to accept that the perpetrators were Pakistanis, that the plot was hatched in Pakistan and that the groups belonged to Pakistan- once nourished by Pakistani establishment.

Man, you are too much.

It's funny that you actually believe that it was the indian 'pressure' that too without a bullet that we were so helplessly compelled to accept "that the perpetrators were Pakistanis, that the plot was hatched in Pakistan and that the groups belonged to Pakistan- once nourished by Pakistani establishment.". Werent they Pakistani indeed? What's there to hide that they were some non-state actors?

^^We'll see if the same 'drama and theatrics; could have the desired effect and 'force' us to hang those who allegedly pull Mumbai drama.

You armed forces were on very high alert and flew numerous CAPS over major Pakistani cities, while Indian personnel were having a hearty laugh at the jittery responses from Pakistani establishment.

And you call that an achievement

Guud for you.

BTW, if i remember correctly it was war mongering india that went gund ho and acted stupid. What was that; hindustan k dus qadam or Pakistan khatum.., right?

Thats your personal point of view. But there are far more qualified and able think tanks and brilliant strategists (unlike some who are at the most ordinary field tacticians without any understanding, whatsoever, of political strategies) who take into account every conceivable practical and imaginary scenarios before formulating the strategy.

Exactly!

They took "into account every conceivable practical and imaginary scenarios before formulating the strategy" and still fcuked up during Op Prakram, had to suck up over the surgical strikes and now had to lick its own spit when they say CSD dont exist.

Bravo!!

Now i'll be so pleased to see you yapping one/all of the following in response:

-Op Prakaram was never meant to 'actually' attack Pakistan, it was just to punish Pakistan (oopss its contradictory ). Also may be if you had some more guts as Deck does, you may come up with the real fault that you screwed up during the planning phase.

-Surgical strikes, what surgical strikes, there were just a few CAPs and the remaining indian personnel were having 'hearty laughs'.

-CSD is just a psyops.


:

 

[gubbi]

i dont think india has the resources or sufficient equipment to sustain a two-front war. I'm being honest and giving you my own professional assesment. Though many of your inductions have disturbed the military balance.

Thats the key word, right there.
Dont you think that the Indian military planners are planning for any future contingencies?

all that chest-thumping, migraines, and tantrums for a simple statement?

Think about it. Without mobilizing our forces, India forced Pakistan on its backfoot, both militarily and diplomatically. Pakistan had to accept almost all the accusations, not to mention the after effects of all that posturing. Almost all the soundbites from all the countries about/to Pakistan demand that Pakistan bring the perpetrators to justice, dismantle any terrorist networks on its soil and tow the International line.
This when Pakistan had denied that such things even existed on its soil.

as per information available in public domain, the plotting took places in several countries --not limited to Pakistan but also Dubai and as far away as Italy

Movement of key plotters between countries doesnt lay blame on those countries. The fact remains that the whole plot was conceived and planned in Pakistan by Pakistanis.

flying CAPS was inevitable, given indian posturing; not to mention one case of an intruding aircraft which was only a thread's width from getting shot down from the sky as it fled in haste (confirmed in media)

See, how easy it was to send Pakistani establishment on a fear ride? Simple posturing, without as much as firing a single shot made the establishment all jittery.

As for your "chest thumping" of an IAF aircraft being close to being shot down, have you ever wondered that the aircraft was simply probing your defenses during such heightened tensions? A technical violation does not amount to violation of IB, but is enough to get a lot of details about enemy defenses.

IAF got what it wanted. You believe what you want to.

i could care damn less what is stated on 'wikileaks' or statements taken completely out of context by indian media tabloids

But its completely valid, important and legitimate when it comes to criticizing US or NATO or Western Govts/forces for their actions? May I ask why?

well that's where our so-called ''paranoia about india'' as some call it comes in handy

And so you shall wait for an impending Indian invasion, which may never come!

I think that given a freeze in arms supplies, the PAF still performed quite well in defending Pakistan though better coordination between the services would have been in order

Pakistan initiated the attack. And you talk of 'defending' the country? Keep changing goalposts. No wonder many Pakistanis believe that they won all wars against India.

again -- a good lesson learned for future. Recent military exercizes as well as procuments and innovations have proven that we are ready to meet the new security-related challenges --especially as far as our enemy is concerned

since you are one of those 'brilliant strategists', enlighten me further

On one hand you all dismiss CSD as a cockamamie plan, but then you do all these exercises saying that you can effectively neutralize CSD and that CSD is nothing but a flat tyre.
Interesting paradox.

Never did I claim to be a strategist, unlike others. I am just saying that theres more to it than ordinary mortals would see.
I dont know how effective CSD would be in the field, if ever implemented. But as an political tool to affect international/bilateral relations, it is working very effectively. Dont you think so?

 

[Rafi]

hahaha in the stand off after the parliament attacks, we received daily intel about the hundreds of soldiers being killed laying mines, and getting killed by their own munitions, in fact credible intel had it at much more than the 800 killed, stated by the indian govt.

 

[deckingraj]

i wanted to see how deeply mistaken you actually are. Or is it deliberate?

but what's the point...Either you are just frustrated and want to get it out on internet or you genuinely want to enter into a meaningful debate. I cannot think of another reason to get into a page long post. Since you consider whatever i have written as bable then what it makes you???

A point answer to your bable:

let's see...and b/w i will not loose my cool irrespective of the provocation....Just to remind you once again we are talking about dent that CSD is going to cause on your budget.

1-When was the exact instance when Pakistan was not exactly in an 'arms race' with india?

Please read the post again. In your haste to hit the reply button you have missed some key points... We inducted MKI's way back in late 90's...may i know what counter you fielded??? Even our Mig21-Bisons were BVR capable when your top-notch knew nothing about BVR fight. In short with CSD in the background one cannot slip in matching the adversary if parity needs to be maintained irrespective of the economic conditions. Am i clear????

2-When was the last time we (or for that matter you) have a cut on your defence budgets? What i see is a steady increase every year since our inception. And i am mostly talking about the 'era' before the CS. Secondly, as per you claims we people have gone paranoid over CSD and you psyops (Gosh!) is indeed working. So how did it impact are defence budget since the not so mysterious CSD revealed itself to the world?

When was the last time you increase your defence budget even when your country was in such a shabby economic condition??? Are you saying increase of almost 25-30% is steady increase??? Whom are you trying to fool xeric????

3-Now this is torturous; talking of 10-15 years from today. Man you people such persistent suckers (that's a joke) that you dont even feel any kind of shame (this is not a joke) when you talk of india becoming the next superpower in 3020 or india reaching Mars in 4020 or for that matter india acquiring some James Bond kinda weaponry in 2050. Most surprisingly you people like to compare your FUTURE with our PRESENT!! You talk of indian going hyper sonic in 2015 and then you compare Pakistan by saying, hey look at your present state of affairs - all that terrorism, flood and stuff. Who knows what Pakistan would be in 2015?

I see you are a Think Tank....Are you thinking about only present??? Don't you think it is flawed???? I am not talking about 50 years from now...I am talking about next 5-10 years. This is very valid period from defense perspective. The big ticket items that i am talking about are not dreams. They are facts and work is in progress. You will have to start countering them now. If you think in 5 years Pakistan would become super-duper economy then i am sorry, such wishful thinking have no takers in real world...Yes such words look great in a forum....but you being a think tank and pretty offensive in your replies you should be a little careful about them. There is no point in mis-leading people...

See, we have been surviving all the odds. We survived the sanctions, in 2001-02 they said india would just eat Pakistan but instead india went back with a bitten tongue, so were the surgical strikes (the CSD was very much workable then).

Ohhh comon Xeric. Don't talk nonsense here. what the hell you mean by surviving sanctions??? Who said India will eat Pakistan??? Of course us being a bigger economy have more might to limit the impact of sanctions. You being a smaller economy will face the brunt of sanctions much more than us. Are you saying that sanctions did not impact Pak at all???? Are you going to be that naive????

You know, the difference between you and us is that you like to boast about your monies and make most of the defence stuff through own expenses. We on the other side some times have to beg, steal or borrow (though not literally) to make up the imbalance.

Exactly my point....In short with thriving economy and new geo-political might complemented with India's offensive doctorine like CSD you will have to do all that even more. As said you don't have luxury of time. Any mumbai like attack and no US can stop an Indian onslaught. This is reality. If you wanna ignore it be my guest

They also said during 2002-02 escalation that we'll see if Pakistan can sustain (economically) a full military deployment all along the IB for a year. The we'll kill Pakistan without a fight kinda BS, but we all saw that we stood there eye ball to eye ball till the time you didnt recede.

Then stop reading BS. because you are not talking like a think tank here. What was the total expenditure for full-fledge deployment for Pakistan??? What was your GDP at that time??? Weren't you under sanctions at that time??? So in short it hurt you more than us....Are you denying that???? Nobody said that it will kill Pakistan, people just said it is going to hurt them more than us, which is reality....

i was not here on PDF (nor was the PDF itself) in 1999 when you did the bomb. But i am sure had we and PDF been around here back then, you all would have monkeyed around after you exploded the bomb and asked the exact question as you ask today; what would Pakistan do now? But then we all know that the indian 'joy' was quite short lived.

Another BS. Are you saying Indians were not aware that you had a bomb???? B/W why 1999??? We had our first explosion in 1974 when you knew nothing about abc of nuclear bomb. So please keep such imaginary nonsense to yourself...

We have some tricks up our sleeves and you have yours. 6 decades have passed and numerous others would also in future, but Pakistan would remain india's nemesis (or should i say vice versa?). It aint gonna change man.

Time has changed and every thing changes. Those who don't want to believe this end up being surprised. The reality is we are fine with status quo. Pakistan is just a nuisance to us and that's all. We are improving as we speak. One that was applicable 2 decades back is not applicable now...Please do a reality check.

Till the time you people would keep coming up with 'shockers' like CSD, Limited and Two Front Wars, we would also continue to 'game on'!

Look i am not interested in games. I am just telling you that how CSD is going to dent your coffers. CSD, limited and two front wars are reality of South Asia. Anything above them is complete destruction....So these concepts are very real. Now are you capable to match the new threats i will leave it for you to decide. As far as i am concerned i am working hard so teach enemy a good lesson in case they comit something grave....

It's absurd that you people so easily think that with a few MRCAs and a nuke sub you would totally shift the balance in your favour, so had you thought in '78, '99, '01 and '09 and the it's still counting.

It is absurd that you are totally ignoring the numerical superiority that we always enjoyed over you. It is absurd that you are ignoring 126 top-notch fighters as few MRCA's and other big ticket items. Moreover it is highly absurd that you are rejecting that all this will put a big hole in your budget.

i dont know what we would do when you actually tilt the balance towards your side once you 'actually' get that shinny gadgetry on your inventory. But if we follow the past trends, the future is not that difficult to predict, atleast in our case.

Xeric, time is changing. You guys are ignoring India's rising geo-political might. These days countries are talking about giving us permanent seat in UNSC something that we could not even dream about 2 decades back....Think mr think tank, think....

Believe me you dont need my 'agreement' on this Dont sweat my dear. You'll never know what i dont want to tell you.

Sorry to disappoint but neither am i interested in knowing what you don't want to tell me. However i have told you whatever i know.

And oh yes, another terrorist attack aint happening till the time the US is on our side (read the WoT continues) and/or india doesnt make up the short comings it had during 2001-02 (Prakaram) and 2009 (surgical strikes)

No man, there is not going to be any terrorist attacks. and if at all you will see action. There should not be any two thoughts on this one....

So you see, we are overwhelmed by 'paranoia', isnt that what you wanted?? Shivering...
^^^ Till the time the US have its a$$ stuck in Afg do you think your leaders have the guts to move a single tank towards our direction? Man, this is COMMON SENSE!!!!!!!! You dont need Rommel to figure this out!

Xeric make up your mind. There is a common saying that common sense is not common. Now either you are thinking that Yanks are fools or you are making a fool out of yourself. If this is common sense that till Yanks are there India cannot dare to move a single tank on your side then how are you using CSD as a tool to push back US pressure on moving troops???? Look US is a super-power and there is no denying the fact but saying that US can arm-twist India when it comes to foreign policy is just empty rhetoric. Do i need to remind you the stark difference b/w what Obama said prior to Indian tour and in Indian Parliament?? What you and many Pakistani members here ignore is the ever increasing geo-political might of India...No offense but India is not Pakistan that can be forced to have a U turn on foreign policy by a mere call....

 

[Rafi]

What did india achieve, the Kashmiri groups are strong as ever, the evidence is flimsy against the accused, and they will be found not guilty. More and more young people in IOK have been awakened. The US has agreed to supply billions more worth of indian specific weapon systems.

india is impotent as ever

 

[Rafi]

india is unlucky because of a circumstance of history two global super powers, one rising, and the other on the decline, are basically pumping billions into your adversary.

And you are subsidising our weapon purchases, all you buy from the US is then given to us free. And China is matching US military assistance dollar for dollar.

Thanks to the PRC and the USA.

 

[Rafi]

We don't have to increase our defence budget too much, our allies are matching it dollar for dollar, so for every dollar we spend we get 3-4 as force multiplier

 

[rockstarIN]

india is impotent as ever

Ask your Army, they will reply you regarding this? Else look at the world map and you can see a baby called bangladesh..