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Last week, Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet in what can only be described as a moment of madness by the Turkish government for allowing such an incident to occur.
The thing is that Turkish airspace is “violated” all the time and the Turks, equally, enter Greek airspace uninvited and conduct bombing missions into northern Iraq whenever it suits them. As the Turkish General Staff noted in a press release, Turkish airspace had been entered 114 times before the Russian incident – mostly by the Greek air force – without anyone being shot down.
Why now then? Some observers say the whole affair was cleverly pre-planned by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to end any sort of alliance between Russia and the anti-ISIS coalition and the possibility of Assad remaining in power. In the aftermath, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg certainly said the obligatory words of support for Ankara but privately, I suspect, was as dismayed as everyone else with Turkey’s behaviour.
Three years ago, in one of many visits to the area where the Russian jet was shot down, I spent a very informative afternoon in a Syrian Turkmen safe-house on the Turkish side of the border. The Turkmen are ethnic Turks who, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, found themselves dwelling in the mainly Arab Syria. In 2012, they joined the Syrian opposition. When I dropped by, the Assad regime was on the defensive and my hosts were clearly in a good mood.
Back then, Turkey’s Hatay Province was a hotbed of the Syrian opposition. In the small town of Yayladagi, at Turkey’s southernmost point, I once came across a group of fighters in full camouflage strolling about. Up the road was the Apaydin refugee camp, where all those defecting Syrian generals and colonels had set up shop.
Indeed, they were heady days back then for the opposition. That’s not the case now and that’s why the Russian jet was shot down.
The fact is that because of Syria, Turkey and Russia have become adversaries. On one side sits the Syrian regime with their Russian allies who have been relentlessly bombing Turkmen positions for several weeks. On the other side are the Turkmen and their Turkish allies who have done everything they can, short of a ground invasion, to help them.
In desperation, it’s likely the Turkmen leadership made one final appeal to Ankara to rescue them and, lacking any other viable options, the absurd idea of shooting down a Russian aircraft was about the best anyone could come up with. This was no wider geo-strategic strategy on the part of Turkey, just a Turkish “face-saving” exercise in front of their allies and one last angry lash-out before Syrian government flags are likely to begin popping up all along the Turkish border.
As for the Russian sanctions designed to punish Turkey, one wonders if Moscow isn’t actually punishing itself. It’s also likely Putin is engaged in a little domestic face-saving of his own. How many sanctions will actually see the light of day is debatable. Indeed, if Russia was really that outraged, it could do far worse — cutting back on its substantial gas and oil supplies to Ankara, for example.
But why bother? The Russians have the initiative. Assad isn’t going anywhere and Syria’s Kurds are well on their way to some sort of independence or autonomy.
Erdogan is furious on both accounts and his judgement, as witnessed with the shooting down of the Russian jet, clouded. Besides, Turkey has its own significant domestic issues, and it would be better for all involved if Erdogan simply offered an apology and accepted that this fight is one he will not win.
Dr. Chris Kilford (then Colonel Kilford) served as Canada’s Defence Attaché to Turkey from 2011-2014. He recently became a Fellow with the Queen’s Centre for International and Defence Policy
Kilford: Turkey can’t win fight against Russia, Syria | Ottawa Citizen
The thing is that Turkish airspace is “violated” all the time and the Turks, equally, enter Greek airspace uninvited and conduct bombing missions into northern Iraq whenever it suits them. As the Turkish General Staff noted in a press release, Turkish airspace had been entered 114 times before the Russian incident – mostly by the Greek air force – without anyone being shot down.
Why now then? Some observers say the whole affair was cleverly pre-planned by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to end any sort of alliance between Russia and the anti-ISIS coalition and the possibility of Assad remaining in power. In the aftermath, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg certainly said the obligatory words of support for Ankara but privately, I suspect, was as dismayed as everyone else with Turkey’s behaviour.
Three years ago, in one of many visits to the area where the Russian jet was shot down, I spent a very informative afternoon in a Syrian Turkmen safe-house on the Turkish side of the border. The Turkmen are ethnic Turks who, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, found themselves dwelling in the mainly Arab Syria. In 2012, they joined the Syrian opposition. When I dropped by, the Assad regime was on the defensive and my hosts were clearly in a good mood.
Back then, Turkey’s Hatay Province was a hotbed of the Syrian opposition. In the small town of Yayladagi, at Turkey’s southernmost point, I once came across a group of fighters in full camouflage strolling about. Up the road was the Apaydin refugee camp, where all those defecting Syrian generals and colonels had set up shop.
Indeed, they were heady days back then for the opposition. That’s not the case now and that’s why the Russian jet was shot down.
The fact is that because of Syria, Turkey and Russia have become adversaries. On one side sits the Syrian regime with their Russian allies who have been relentlessly bombing Turkmen positions for several weeks. On the other side are the Turkmen and their Turkish allies who have done everything they can, short of a ground invasion, to help them.
In desperation, it’s likely the Turkmen leadership made one final appeal to Ankara to rescue them and, lacking any other viable options, the absurd idea of shooting down a Russian aircraft was about the best anyone could come up with. This was no wider geo-strategic strategy on the part of Turkey, just a Turkish “face-saving” exercise in front of their allies and one last angry lash-out before Syrian government flags are likely to begin popping up all along the Turkish border.
As for the Russian sanctions designed to punish Turkey, one wonders if Moscow isn’t actually punishing itself. It’s also likely Putin is engaged in a little domestic face-saving of his own. How many sanctions will actually see the light of day is debatable. Indeed, if Russia was really that outraged, it could do far worse — cutting back on its substantial gas and oil supplies to Ankara, for example.
But why bother? The Russians have the initiative. Assad isn’t going anywhere and Syria’s Kurds are well on their way to some sort of independence or autonomy.
Erdogan is furious on both accounts and his judgement, as witnessed with the shooting down of the Russian jet, clouded. Besides, Turkey has its own significant domestic issues, and it would be better for all involved if Erdogan simply offered an apology and accepted that this fight is one he will not win.
Dr. Chris Kilford (then Colonel Kilford) served as Canada’s Defence Attaché to Turkey from 2011-2014. He recently became a Fellow with the Queen’s Centre for International and Defence Policy
Kilford: Turkey can’t win fight against Russia, Syria | Ottawa Citizen
