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Karbagh war: what will Turkey's reponse going to be?

atatwolf

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Tentions are rising in the Caucasus. Armenia is continually braking the cease fire. Iran is accusing Azerbaijan of supporting Azeri groups in Iran. Russia has upgraded its army in black sea and Caucasus. Caucasus is about to unfold sooner or later.

Will Russia take advantage of the situation and invade Georgia to stop the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipeline?

Will Iran take advantage of the situation and launch a cowardly attack on Azerbaijan?

What will Turkey's response going to be?

One might think this scenario is far stretched but I think something is going to happen sooner or later. If natural resource pipelines are build between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia will loose energy monopoly over Europe and all leverage. So Russia will act sooner than later in the Caucasus.

I opened this thread to discuss our strategy and game plan.
 
Tentions are rising in the Caucasus. Armenia is continually braking the cease fire. Iran is accusing Azerbaijan of supporting Azeri groups in Iran. Russia has upgraded its army in black sea and Caucasus. Caucasus is about to unfold sooner or later.

Will Russia take advantage of the situation and invade Georgia to stop the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipeline?
I doubt it.
Will Iran take advantage of the situation and launch a cowardly attack on Azerbaijan?
Iran has no military power nor money to attack Azerbaijan. Except for Air force, Azerbaijan has almost equal or better military forces compared to Iran. Turkey will only need to provide air support for Azerbaijan.
What will Turkey's response going to be?
I don't expect Turkey to do much about Azerbaijan. Maybe just some political speeches by Erdogan, and ask both sides for stopping the conflict. Nothing more than that would happen.
One might think this scenario is far stretched but I think something is going to happen sooner or later. If natural resource pipelines are build between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia will loose energy monopoly over Europe and all leverage. So Russia will act sooner than later in the Caucasus.
Russia would definitely try to respond to such pipeline, but I doubt if it would be direct military attack.
I opened this thread to discuss our strategy and game plan.
:tup:
 
I doubt it.

Iran has no military power nor money to attack Azerbaijan. Except for Air force, Azerbaijan has almost equal or better military forces compared to Iran. Turkey will only need to provide air support for Azerbaijan.

I don't expect Turkey to do much about Azerbaijan. Maybe just some political speeches by Erdogan, and ask both sides for stopping the conflict. Nothing more than that would happen.

Russia would definitely try to respond to such pipeline, but I doubt if it would be direct military attack.

:tup:
Russia invaded parts of Georgia before. Also it invaded Ukraine recently. So the OP I opened is not so unrealistic. Especially now Russia's economy is getting pounded and is getting more assertive. We have to consider the posibility. Also Georgia is more important than Ukraine.

-Georgia connects with Armenia

-Caucasus is geographic stronghold

-Turkic pipeline goes through Georgia

If I were Russia, I would be very anxious about Southern energy corridor (Turkic pipeline) since once Europe gets alternative to Russian energy. Russia doesn't have any leverage. The only reason Europe doesn't go full boycot on Russia is because Russia will cut gas.
 
Will Iran take advantage of the situation and launch a cowardly attack on Azerbaijan?

I don't know why you love so much to involve Iran in a war scenario in your mind and thoughts, but here's the real story:

Iran has zero reasons to invade Republic of Azerbaijan because it doesn't have any strategic value for us, and it won't benefit us in any way. Also, we don't want another hundreds of thousands of refugees in our country, we have enough of them already.

Last time Iran tried to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 90s, President of Azerbaijan, Abulfazl Elchibely bit our hand like the ungrateful person he was. Many people are ignorant about Iran's role in this conflict and are usually fooled by the media.

Now we are totally out of this conflict and we let both sides settle their problems. What I know is that we don't want another war on your northwestern borders. Iran has zero reasons to invade Azerbaijan, it's one of the most stupid theories I have heard of recently. If Azerbaijan is lucky, it will get back its land from Armenia after 20 years. Iran is not relevant in this conflict from military aspect.
 
Tentions are rising in the Caucasus. Armenia is continually braking the cease fire. Iran is accusing Azerbaijan of supporting Azeri groups in Iran. Russia has upgraded its army in black sea and Caucasus. Caucasus is about to unfold sooner or later.
it's depend on our move if we act like stupid we will be the loser


Will Russia take advantage of the situation and invade Georgia to stop the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey pipeline?
in 2008 i knew russia will attack Georgia and if u just hang on in russian websites u could read some BS about taking crimea and eastern ukraine if they wanna attack Georgia they will tell us 2-3 years earlier btw they need some excuse to attack like defending some ethnic groups ( this even work for iranians in islamic revelution they wanted to Occupy iraq and take some shia shirne and to do so they put their finger in northern iraq until Saddam attack them after 3 years fight in iran the tide changed and they enter iraq and fight for next five years ) and they lost their excuse in 2008 now if Georgia don't make a wrong move if could cross this bridge i think Georgians knew the consequences and yet they done that and cross the red line


Will Iran take advantage of the situation and launch a cowardly attack on Azerbaijan?
iran is not russia to attack and Occupy they don't that ability in meanwhile iran is full of azeriz less than half of iran is turkic this will be unwise for them to attack azerbijan a shia-turkic country but if some shia -islamic group rasie up against the gov they will send their forces to aid / training them and make new hezbollah of azerbijan this is their strategy their learned their lessons from iran-iraq war


What will Turkey's response going to be?
as long as erdogan in power nothing since iran hold the all energy card in their hands syria-iran-iraq-turkmenistan in all of these country iran have great influence or leverage in the gas case turkey is not in better condition than EU erdogan will play between russian and iran and this will give great influnce to iranian to both play with nato/EU and the russians


If natural resource pipelines are build between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia will loose energy monopoly over Europe and all leverage. So Russia will act sooner than later in the Caucasus.
ofc they will act it's stupid thing to think they will sit and watch this is the stage i call it as "russian's red line " and there is no other way but to cross it but how to cross it , is something different the most stupid idea of "crossing" is the azerbijan-turkey's military action if it's come to that turkic side will lose badly so take it off the table



-Georgia connects with Armenia
we must make them understand what they will gain if they stay with us and what they will lose of they leave our side about the armenians turkey must make some tv channels and start the propaganda about armenian hard life and their gov's incompetency and turkic-armenian brotherhood


If I were Russia, I would be very anxious about Southern energy corridor (Turkic pipeline) since once Europe gets alternative to Russian energy. Russia doesn't have any leverage. The only reason Europe doesn't go full boycot on Russia is because Russia will cut gas.
if russia goes for fully annexation Georgia than we must kiss the turkic union and put it aside




Europe gets alternative to Russian energy. Russia doesn't have any leverage. The only reason Europe doesn't go full boycot on Russia is because Russia will cut gas.
we must assure them that we wont take this leverage from them and we will be their partners this is the only way
 
I don't know why you love so much to involve Iran in a war scenario in your mind and thoughts, but here's the real story:

Iran has zero reasons to invade Republic of Azerbaijan because it doesn't have any strategic value for us, and it won't benefit us in any way. Also, we don't want another hundreds of thousands of refugees in our country, we have enough of them already.

Last time Iran tried to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 90s, President of Azerbaijan, Abulfazl Elchibely bit our hand like the ungrateful person he was. Many people are ignorant about Iran's role in this conflict and are usually fooled by the media.

Now we are totally out of this conflict and we let both sides settle their problems. What I know is that we don't want another war on your northwestern borders. Iran has zero reasons to invade Azerbaijan, it's one of the most stupid theories I have heard of recently. If Azerbaijan is lucky, it will get back its land from Armenia after 20 years. Iran is not relevant in this conflict from military aspect.
It is not simple like that. Azerbaijan is close ally of Israel for example:
Azerbaijan's Cooperation with Israel Goes Beyond Iran Tensions - The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

If Israel bombs Iran which will happen sooner or later, Iran promised to even attack Turkey:
Iran threatens to bomb Turkey if U.S. or Israel attack nuclear installations | Mail Online

And Iran also threatened Azerbaijan couple of times. So what I'm saying is very possible and can happen in the blink of an eye. Also Iran is constantly accusing Azerbaijan of helping Azeri groups in Iran. Iran is doing to on purposely for war propaganda.

As you can see Iran even threatened Turkey so don't tell us to not think about this possibility. We are not threatening Iran. YOU are threatening us. Also there is proxy war going on between Sunni and Shia. Before we know it a sectarian war can errupt if Iran starts getting involved directly. Big wars always got triggered by small incidents if you know history.
 
Russia just signed a 400 billion $ deal for gaz supply to china. I do not think that Russia is scared of a pipeline, it can play with prices too without having to resort to invasions or wars.
Azerbaijan was supported "after losing karabach", militarily by the US and than through Usrael and Armenia has been supported all along by Russia, so one has to have a look at the US (and its proxy Usrael) strategy in the region as much as the Russian one.
 
If Israel bombs Iran which will happen sooner or later, Iran promised to even attack Turkey:
Iran threatens to bomb Turkey if U.S. or Israel attack nuclear installations | Mail Online
And Iran also threatened Azerbaijan couple of times. So what I'm saying is very possible and can happen in the blink of an eye. Also Iran is constantly accusing Azerbaijan of helping Azeri groups in Iran. Iran is doing to on purposely for war propaganda.
As you can see Iran even threatened Turkey so don't tell us to not think about this possibility. We are not threatening Iran. YOU are threatening us. Also there is proxy war going on between Sunni and Shia. Before we know it a sectarian war can errupt if Iran starts getting involved directly. Big wars always got triggered by small incidents if you know history.

That's perhaps the hundredth time you are posting that link from 3 years ago.
Iran never 'threatened' Turkey unlike what you love so much to believe. One general once said 3 years ago that if NATO missile systems intercepts Iran's missiles going towards Israel in case Israel attacks Iran, those systems will become legitimate targets too. I don't find anything illogical in this statement. If you let missile systems from YOUR soil intercept missiles going towards a non-NATO member, in this case, Israel, it means you have already entered the war or at least made those systems legitimate targets according to international regulations.

We don't threaten anyone, neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan, But we will defend ourselves if any country acts against our interests.

Iran will not interfere anywhere directly with troops as long as no one has attacked us, you can be sure of that. Hence your dream will not come true unless another third party attacks us first.
 
Russia invaded parts of Georgia before. Also it invaded Ukraine recently. So the OP I opened is not so unrealistic. Especially now Russia's economy is getting pounded and is getting more assertive. We have to consider the posibility.
Yup, we need to consider the possibility, and at the same time I believe that its possibility is not high. Russia has no more excuses to go beyond Ossetia, or Abkhazia, and there are even already protests inside those regions to the Russian backed governments.
Also Georgia is more important than Ukraine.
No, it is not. No Eastern European country is more important for Russia than Ukraine. In addition, crimea was part of Russia until 4 decades before USSR collapse, and it was the main base of Russian navy.
-Georgia connects with Armenia

-Caucasus is geographic stronghold

-Turkic pipeline goes through Georgia
I agree.
If I were Russia, I would be very anxious about Southern energy corridor (Turkic pipeline) since once Europe gets alternative to Russian energy. Russia doesn't have any leverage. The only reason Europe doesn't go full boycot on Russia is because Russia will cut gas.
Russia is also a nuclear power, and a military power, ... West did not mind Russia's attempts in Ukraine since it had not direct conflict with interests of west. cutting an energy pipeline is a very different story.
 
That's perhaps the hundredth time you are posting that link from 3 years ago.
Iran never 'threatened' Turkey unlike what you love so much to believe. One general once said 3 years ago that if NATO missile systems intercepts Iran's missiles going towards Israel in case Israel attacks Iran, those systems will become legitimate targets too. I don't find anything illogical in this statement. If you let missile systems from YOUR soil intercept missiles going towards a non-NATO member, in this case, Israel, it means you have already entered the war or at least made those systems legitimate targets according to international regulations.

We don't threaten anyone, neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan, But we will defend ourselves if any country acts against our interests.

Iran will not interfere anywhere directly with troops as long as no one has attacked us, you can be sure of that. Hence your dream will not come true unless another third party attacks us first.
Iran constantly accuses Azerbaijan of bull for propaganda purposes. Like "Azeri have assassinated our scientist", "Azerbaijan is supporting Azeri in Iran". If you add one plus one you get the answer. Iran is hinting what it will do. Azerbaijan doesn't necessary have to do these things but Iran can use it as an excuse to attack Azerbaijan.

What the Azerbaijan Elections Mean For Ethnic Tensions in Iran

Mentioning the 1813 Treaty of Gulistan or the 1828 Treaty of Turkmenchay elicits a biter reaction from anyone raised in Iran. The two treaties are regarded by Iranians as defeats and humiliations that resulted in large chucks of Iranian territory being surrendered to Russia. The treaties divided the large province of Azerbaijan between Iran and Russia. Today, Russian Azerbaijan is the Republic of Azerbaijan. Despite deep historic and religious ties to Iran, Azerbaijan and Iran do not enjoy good relations. The tension between the two has escalated over the last year.

President Ilham Aliyev was re-elected on Wednesday, but the elections were widely regarded as unfair and corrupt. The Aliyev government is seen as being anti-Iranian and has been accused of stoking ethnic tensions in Iran. Azerbaijanis are Shia Muslims like Persians. Much of the ruling clergy in Iran, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, are ethnic Azeris. Azeris are Turks and constitute the largest ethnic minority in Iran. They are believed to comprise 20% of the Iranian population and are geographically concentrated in North Western Iran on the border with the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Aliyev's government, which is heavily based on Soviet-style governance, maintains a strong sense of political secularism and is deeply suspicious of the Islamic Republic. His government has tried to combat political Islam by using ethnic-nationalism. The Iranians suspect that many Azeri ethno-separatist movements inside the Islamic Republic are funded, trained, and supported by the Aliyev government. To make matters worse, both countries have indirectly called for the revoking of the Gulistan and Turkmenchay treaties, which established the boundaries separating the two countries.

Last year, the Azeri Parliament discussed a motion to change the name of the country from the Republic of Azerbaijan to the Republic of Northern Azerbaijan. In Azeri nationalist discourse, only part of Azerbaijan is free and united. The other part, known as Southern Azerbaijan, is treated as an occupied territory. Southern Azerbaijan is in Iran and the motion was received with outrage in Tehran. Earlier this year, the Iranian parliament discussed annexing Azerbaijan.

But the biggest source of tension between to two is Baku's closeness to Israel, and the threat of an Israeli strike on Iran. Foreign Policy magazine reported that Israel has access to airbases in Azerbaijan, which would be used to strike Iran. Although Israel and Azerbaijan have denied this, both countries enjoy warm ties. So much so that the Iranian government handed the Azerbaijani ambassador in Tehran a letter accusing Azerbaijan of being complicit in the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists. Tehran clearly perceives the relationship to be a security threat.

However, Aliyev's government has been careful not to push Iran too far, many in Baku would support an Israeli strike, but not a war with Iran. In-fact, a war with Azerbaijan's greatest foreign policy fears. Aliyev is likely to keep the antagonistic policy towards Iran, but this begs a serious question: How far should this antagonism go? Too much antagonism could unravel Azerbaijan's foreign policy and have detrimental effects on security. This is one of Aliyev's greatest challenges.

What the Azerbaijan Elections Mean For Ethnic Tensions in Iran - Mic
 
I don't know why you love so much to involve Iran in a war scenario in your mind and thoughts, but here's the real story:

Iran has zero reasons to invade Republic of Azerbaijan because it doesn't have any strategic value for us, and it won't benefit us in any way. Also, we don't want another hundreds of thousands of refugees in our country, we have enough of them already.

Last time Iran tried to mediate between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 90s, President of Azerbaijan, Abulfazl Elchibely bit our hand like the ungrateful person he was. Many people are ignorant about Iran's role in this conflict and are usually fooled by the media.

Now we are totally out of this conflict and we let both sides settle their problems. What I know is that we don't want another war on your northwestern borders. Iran has zero reasons to invade Azerbaijan, it's one of the most stupid theories I have heard of recently. If Azerbaijan is lucky, it will get back its land from Armenia after 20 years. Iran is not relevant in this conflict from military aspect.

Bunch of lies, which is what is expected from a taqqiya (religious lie) practicing person.
Even Armenians have clearly stated the reason behind Iran support for Armenia, yet you try to say bunch of lies about "mediating".
Azerbaijan has captured hundreds of Iranian spies in the past decade which were trying to create religious goons like Hizballah, and also were attempting to bomb US and Israel embassy in Baku. But, your stupid friends failed each time, since Azerbaijani people are not like bunch of lebanese to be fooled and farsi religious extremism is not favorable in Azerbaijan and also Azerbaijan has a strong security system.
Now, stop trolling and polluting our threads for millionth time.
 
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That's right. In addition, there are rumors that we have already gave Israel a military air base which can be used in bombing Iran. If these rumors are true, it would be a good news. When farsis supported Armenia, they should have expected such thing happens. ;)
If Israel bombs Iran which will happen sooner or later, Iran promised to even attack Turkey:
Iran threatens to bomb Turkey if U.S. or Israel attack nuclear installations | Mail Online
Iran is taking a lot of BS, but has no balls, nor power to do any of them.
And Iran also threatened Azerbaijan couple of times. So what I'm saying is very possible and can happen in the blink of an eye. Also Iran is constantly accusing Azerbaijan of helping Azeri groups in Iran. Iran is doing to on purposely for war propaganda.
They thought that they can create another hizballah in Azerbaijan, but the security system of Azerbaijan did not let them to do so. BTW, Azerbaijan is one of top ten countries in the world in terms of literacy rate, and is an educated society,... Hence, Farsi BS religious sectarianism would have not much fans in Azerbaijani society, and Iran would easily fail.
As you can see Iran even threatened Turkey so don't tell us to not think about this possibility. We are not threatening Iran. YOU are threatening us. Also there is proxy war going on between Sunni and Shia. Before we know it a sectarian war can errupt if Iran starts getting involved directly. Big wars always got triggered by small incidents if you know history.
:tup:
 
Bunch of lies, which is what is expected from a taqqiya (religious lie) practicing person.
Even Armenians have clearly stated the reason behind Iran support for Armenia, yet you try to say bunch of lies about "mediating".
Azerbaijan has captured hundreds of Iranian spies in the past decade which were trying to create religious goons like Hizballah, and also were attempting to bomb US and Israel embassy in Baku. But, your stupid friends failed each time, since Azerbaijani people are not like bunch of lebanese to be fooled and farsi religious extremism is nor favorable in Azerbaijan and also Azerbaijan has a strong security system.
Now, stop trolling and polluting our threads for millionth time.
Unfortunately, I didn't find anything worthy or new in your post. All has been repeated in the past and recieved proper answers.

Also, you are not in a position to tell me where to post or not, in case you are not aware of that. ;)
Iran constantly accuses Azerbaijan of bull for propaganda purposes. Like "Azeri have assassinated our scientist", "Azerbaijan is supporting Azeri in Iran". If you add one plus one you get the answer. Iran is hinting what it will do. Azerbaijan doesn't necessary have to do these things but Iran can use it as an excuse to attack Azerbaijan.

No it won't. You love war too much, but it won't happen.
Aliyev government is not easy to like, I give you that, especially for a country like Iran, but that doesn't mean any war will happen.

Iran and Azerbaijan relations are currently quite stable and normal, especially after recent Alyev's visit to Tehran. If his government doesn't bother us or try to act 'smart' on our back, we have no specific problem to have good relation with Azerbaijan. This has been proved with periodical warmth in relations between two countries in past 2 decades.
 
Unfortunately, I didn't find anything worthy or new in your post. All has been repeated in the past and recieved proper answers.
:sarcastic:
Also, you are not in a position to tell me where to post or not, in case you are not aware of that. ;)
I was referring to your constant interest in trolling Azerbaijan related threads, which comes from your obsession and racism.
 

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