JF-17 Thunder Multirole Fighter [Thread 7]

[air marshal]

 

[PakFactor]

Because China isn't helping as much as we'd like, and we can't help ourselves.

I see a .gif of Obama to that post you reply to; what has happened?

 

[Trango Towers]

Why would we need their help?

Pakistanis always assume that's its us that require the help. Learning can often be a 2 ways street.
The loser mindset is inherent

 

[RAMPAGE]

Because China isn't helping as much as we'd like

What leads you to conclude this? Are we having difficulty intergrating Chinese AAMs with a local radar? Non-Chinese AAMs?

 

[sparten]

What leads you to conclude this? Are we having difficulty intergrating Chinese AAMs with a local radar? Non-Chinese AAMs?

The abrupt and ill advised pivot has wrecked our relationship.
Much to the shock of our leadership. They had convinced themselves all would be fine, and then were stunned when we got shown the door.
Some of our members like @Rafi were very upset at those of us who predicted it would happen.

 

[White privilege]

Because China isn't helping as much as we'd like, and we can't help ourselves.

Ok I will light the fuse here with a direct question, why?? Why would they not help us, are they 'incapable' or 'unwilling' ?? And reasons too....

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

The abrupt and ill advised pivot has wrecked our relationship.
Much to the shock of our leadership. They had convinced themselves all would be fine, and then were stunned when we got shown the door.
Some of our members like @Rafi were very upset at those of us who predicted it would happen.

It's not just that. In fact, that aspect of the relationship is recoverable because the U.S. will drive India to intensify its anti-China focus.

The issue is literally us. We don't have enough internal know-how and capacity to get the most out of the JF-17 program. We're reliant on China, and the Chinese aren't going to help us build our aerospace fundamentals (and rightfully so). China has zero incentive and -- be it for geo-political reasons or just keeping things simple and cost-effective -- have us buy their stuff off-the-shelf as-is.

Turkey, on the other hand, is more willing to help us build our R&D.

Why?

Because they're not as big as China (or US) where they can tap into tons of funding, or rely on domestic orders to drive economies-of-scale. They need partners and are willing to build consortiums with other countries, notably Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The TuAF isn't going to get more than 200 MMUs, but if you factor in Pakistan, Malaysia, etc, you could get to 500 units.

However, we can't do jack because we don't have enough know-how and capacity.

So, to get to its actual goal, Turkey is willing to 'upskill' us so that we can one day support their bigger projects.

Of course, nothing's free of strings. For a start, Turkey wouldn't want any of this net-new work happening at PAC, for example. It doesn't want to deal with generals, but rather, actual engineers and other aerospace industry and management professionals. It's going to be through Turkish Aerospace's subsidiary in Pakistan and, potentially, private sector companies in Pakistan.

This JF-17 "study" could be a carrot from Turkey to help us build real fundamentals and to show AHQ that domestic R&D has to work a certain way for it to pay off. The PAF solves some of its issues (e.g., finally getting a grasp of the JF-17) and, in return, Turkey gets to shape our aerospace industry such that we support their interests (the Turks want to build their own Airbus or Boeing; a megacorp with facilities across several countries).

 

[sparten]

Not really.I mean yes, but not really. The Turks suffer the same problem as we do, as all middle income countries do, they are advanced in some areas, but lousy in others.
They have wanted us to share a lot of stuff in areas where we are have far greater expertise, such as BM and CM and its guidance, and have been very willing to share with us.
We have demurred. And nothing I have read recently has suggested anything lately otherwise.

As for China? Forget about it. We have as @kursed has posted, really screwed the pooch there. Pretty much all strategic projects have been cancelled. We could have gotten superpower tier weapon system and their design capability. But, thats done now.

 

[PakFactor]

It's not just that. In fact, that aspect of the relationship is recoverable because the U.S. will drive India to intensify its anti-China focus.

The issue is literally us. We don't have enough internal know-how and capacity to get the most out of the JF-17 program. We're reliant on China, and the Chinese aren't going to help us build our aerospace fundamentals (and rightfully so). China has zero incentive and -- be it for geo-political reasons or just keeping things simple and cost-effective -- have us buy their stuff off-the-shelf as-is.

Turkey, on the other hand, is more willing to help us build our R&D.

Why?

Because they're not as big as China (or US) where they can tap into tons of funding, or rely on domestic orders to drive economies-of-scale. They need partners and are willing to build consortiums with other countries, notably Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The TuAF isn't going to get more than 200 MMUs, but if you factor in Pakistan, Malaysia, etc, you could get to 500 units.

However, we can't do jack because we don't have enough know-how and capacity.

So, to get to its actual goal, Turkey is willing to 'upskill' us so that we can one day support their bigger projects.

Of course, nothing's free of strings. For a start, Turkey wouldn't want any of this net-new work happening at PAC, for example. It doesn't want to deal with generals, but rather, actual engineers and other aerospace industry and management professionals. It's going to be through Turkish Aerospace's subsidiary in Pakistan and, potentially, private sector companies in Pakistan.

This JF-17 "study" could be a carrot from Turkey to help us build real fundamentals and to show AHQ that domestic R&D has to work a certain way for it to pay off. The PAF solves some of its issues (e.g., finally getting a grasp of the JF-17) and, in return, Turkey gets to shape our aerospace industry such that we support their interests (the Turks want to build their own Airbus or Boeing; a megacorp with facilities across several countries).

One aspect is the Chinese do not see us as a reliable partner long-term, and our pivot within the last few months doesn't shine a good light on us. So then they have to question, how much can we give Pakistan?

 

[Mrc]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577287959119859715

Be very skeptical unless Chinese agree as they own 50 percent of the project.

 

[sparten]

Be very skeptical unless Chinese agree as they own 50 percent of the project.

42%.
And why wouldn't they agree.,

 

[Mrc]

42%.
And why wouldn't they agree.,

Partnership is 50 50. 56 percent jet is made in Pakistan.

They most likely will agree ... But going through posts i was getting impression that people think Turks are replacing Chinese. They may participate with their consent ( turkey is a NATO member also)

 

[Trango Towers]

One aspect is the Chinese do not see us as a reliable partner long-term, and our pivot within the last few months doesn't shine a good light on us. So then they have to question, how much can we give Pakistan?

Our rulers are haramis. Every last one of them.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

One aspect is the Chinese do not see us as a reliable partner long-term, and our pivot within the last few months doesn't shine a good light on us. So then they have to question, how much can we give Pakistan?

It'd be a bigger strategic blunder for China to cut Pakistan loose.

Basically, the Chinese know (or now know) the caliber of our rulers. This shouldn't have been news to them, but anyways, it's as clear as glass that our political and military leadership aren't "it." As a group, they're not even able to defend Pakistan's national interests, forget helping others (except for the U.S., which seems to have a stronger grasp of the situation).

However, China can't change geography or strategic realities. The U.S. is on China's case. It'll use India even more so in the coming years to get on China's nerves. Pakistan is the perfect release valve for any pressure India puts on China.

The moment Pakistan's leadership develops "it" (i.e., genuine independence and aggressive foreign policy re: Kashmir and Afghanistan), China will extend its hand to Pakistan. That's the ally they want. However, if they cut Pakistan loose and, worse, the U.S. really steps in to create yet another anti-China ally (even a tier-2 type to India's tier-1), then yeah, China's fully encircled.

Simply put, China aren't leaving us, but they aren't taking us seriously either. Like our ties with the U.S., we're entering a weird hazy zone with the Chinese too due to the indecisiveness, corruption, and listlessness of our leadership.

 

[PakFactor]

It'd be a bigger strategic blunder for China to cut Pakistan loose.

Basically, the Chinese know (or now know) the caliber of our rulers. This shouldn't have been news to them, but anyways, it's as clear as glass that our political and military leadership aren't "it." As a group, they're not even able to defend Pakistan's national interests, forget helping others (except for the U.S., which seems to have a stronger grasp of the situation).

However, China can't change geography or strategic realities. The U.S. is on China's case. It'll use India even more so in the coming years to get on China's nerves. Pakistan is the perfect release valve for any pressure India puts on China.

The moment Pakistan's leadership develops "it" (i.e., genuine independence and aggressive foreign policy re: Kashmir and Afghanistan), China will extend its hand to Pakistan. That's the ally they want. However, if they cut Pakistan loose and, worse, the U.S. really steps in to create yet another anti-China ally (even a tier-2 type to India's tier-1), then yeah, China's fully encircled.

Simply put, China aren't leaving us, but they aren't taking us seriously either. Like our ties with the U.S., we're entering a weird hazy zone with the Chinese too due to the indecisiveness, corruption, and listlessness of our leadership.

Perfect analysis, brother. I don't think much else needs to be said.