well there is not a straight answer to this question so I will only state my understanding which is based on the information available in open source till now but it may in future prove totally false, therefore before to indulge myself into this I think we must try to answer first what new capabilities Rafale is bringing int his region
So we know that Rafale is introducing following capabilities in South Asia
-
Operational AESA RADAR in fighter jet [GaAS Based AESA Radar]
- Integrated AESA based EW suit
- Long range BVR [Meteor missile] as compare to AIM-120C
- A very Decent Air to ground Strike Package.
Now for JF-17 Blk-III we know
- It will also have AESA radar [GaN based AESA radra]
- It will also have Integrated AESA based EW suit.
- It will have PL-15 missile which even
IF do not have longer range then Meteor then it must be equal to Meteor in range, this would level the field in BVR domain, [Note: though it is widely believe PL-15 have longer range than Meteor Missile]
- Whole of JF-17 series have a very decent strike package in terms of variety of air to ground and air to sea weapons
but lacks in terms of limited pay load capacity.
AESA RADAR
Now as we know no two AESA radar from 2 different vendors are same but even then IF we consider every thing other then known things b/w RBE2-AESA and unknown AESA radar of JF-17 are on par than we know
-
GaN based modules are consider better than GaAS based AESA Radar Modules and as mention above JF-17 have GaN based AESA Radar
- GaN based AESA radar not necessarily but
generally offer better ranges than GaAS based radars
but this feature is related to availability of power to AESA radar and its management.
- Another feature which most people ignore is the processing power as this capability effects the capability of simultaneously Detection, Tracking and Engagement capability of RADAR here declared number of
simultaneous detection of multiple targets of
RBE2-AESA is
- Detection of 40 targets
- Tracking of 8 priority targets
- Simultaneous engagement of 4 targets
As of now these capabilities for the AESA radar of JF-17 are not are not known publicly
so we could not comment on this
EW suit:
Again here both JF-17 and Rafle will have integrated AESA based EW suit but again we do not have much information about these system in public domain and whatever information is available about SPECTRA is related to its performance against PD RADAR, so we can only say that whichever Jet will have
- Better processing power
- Better Threat Library
- Better Power Management
is likely to dominate the other jet on one on one grounds but we know in future war no jet will duel with each other on one on one grounds but as a part of a package which will represent EW systems of both Air forces,
so again it will be difficult to comment.
As I have already commented about BVR missiles therefore would skip it and would only comment about Strike package
Considering over all scenario currently IAF have limited air to ground capability in terms of
Range of their SOW weapons, but it have long range platforms such as Su-30 and Rafale jets, with Rafale jets IAF have option of hammer series from France and could integrate Spice series from Israel as well but
the more important thing is with Rafale deal the IAF has acquired storm shadow missile which give IAF capability to strike 250-290 km from the point of release previously IAF was lacking this capability their program of integrating of Brahamous missile with Su-30 was there but due to limited number of jets it was not truly operational as it requir modification of Su-30 Air frame, so with Storm shadow India for the first time acquired the true SOW capability.
Now with heavy load carrying capability Rafale could carry 2 Storm Shadow missiles while Mirage-5 jets of IAF even now could carry
multiple 60 km and 120 Km SOW weapons, same is the case with Rafale jets.
Here JF-17 with limited pay load capacity as compare to Rafale could carry limited SOW weapons here we need to keep in mind due to difference of
geographical size of India and Pakistan and
Larger size of Indian forces PAF not only need
Range but
Numbers of Weapons with strike package to effectively engage targets in India, while due to limited depth of Pakistan India does not have a need to have SOW missiles longer then 300-400 Km.
Now these requirements expose the limitations of NOT ONLY JF-17 in terms Payload and Range
limitation of PAF as well.
Now here look at the strike platform of PAF the Mirage jets which could carry only ONE RA'AD missile while could carry two H-2 or H-4 weapon but require another dual seat Mirage to guide the H-2 or H-4 weapon.
As far as JF-17 in strike role is concern currently only know capabilities are limited upto 280-290 KM from the point of release but in terms of capability to carry the number of SOW weapon it has only shown capability to carry
- 2 REK with 120 km range
- 2 C-802 with 180-250 Km range
- 2 CM-400 AKG upto 250 Km range
and status of integration of RA'AD with JF-17 is still not known, this thing will compensate the issue related to striking range.
Now as you suggested in your post to increase the number of JF-17 as compare to Rafale jets in that case IF
increase the production of jet with the ratio of
1.5 to 36 Rafale jet then
36 Rafale Jet x 1.5 (JF-17 blk-III) = 54 JF-17 Blk-III jets are required while 48 Mirage-5 jets with strike capability are still unanswered so to match these numbers we need at least same number of JF-17 which mean we would require at least
54 JF-17 (blk-III to match Rafale jets)
48 JF-17 (to match the numbers of mirage-5 jets)
102 JF-17
Now note this 102 number in mind which would be required to match the strike capability in terms of number of platforms, 102 JF-17 would be
55% of JF-17 total plan fleet of 184 JF-17 (all blocks included).
IF we calculate on the suggested ration of 2 JF-17 against 1 Rafale, keeping other factors same then the number would increase up to
120 JF-17 out of 184 JF-17 this will be roughly equivalent to
65% of the JF-17 fleet
Now
what IF IAF buy another batch of 36 Rafale Jets .... ??? you could calculate it by your own.
But even after doing all these would we attain the parity in striking capability with India ..... ???? for this you should look how many hammer bombs Rafale could carry and how many Mirage-5 could carry
Personally I think even
J-10 does not satisfactorily answer our need in the domain of Air strike,
but would be helpful the reduce the gape to some extent