kalu_miah
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I don't believe the US will allow Japan to develop its nukes, as such any attempt in nuclear development will be after dislodge the US force from Japan, in which case China would be in a position to stop any such development. Taking a page from the Israelis, China should make it unambiguous that if Japan is to develop nuclear weapon, China would conduct pre-emptive strike to neutralize such threat. That being said, due to its geographical limitation, the only possible way Japan can achieve credible second strike capability is to field a sizable SSBN forces, which will take decades, and that would give China plenty of time to respond.
And I agree with you that the key is to intensify the China-Japan rivalry but not resorting to actual war. That would facilitate the rise of ultra-nationalist in Japan, and put it in friction with the US. I don't think however that any action Japan take can or will eject the US out of Asia, but rather a slow declining US that will eventually find it unsustainable to remain.
I believe it is not impossible that the US and Japan will make a deal so Japan can develop nuclear triad under US nuke umbrella. Essentially the US's gradual disengagement (orderly retreat) I believe will take this shape, because the US would not want to see China threatening Japan, that would be irresponsible on the part of the US. In fact, I would say the clock is ticking for the US and Japan to proceed with this ASAP before China becomes too powerful to prevent this from happening.
I think the same will happen with South Korea, before the US finally withdraws from there.
So you are looking at both Japan and South Korea developing their nuclear triads under US umbrella, which will enable the US to withdraw without causing serious harm to its allies, from the US departure.
Why the US will allow it, because that is the least they can do to their long time allies. If we may remember, the professed US policy is to ensure global peace and stability and the US is currently on the scene because no one else is up to the job. So the US is more like a reluctant enforcer, but once locals become strong enough, I believe the US will be able to disengage and retreat, leaving a balance of sorts in place.
On China's part, I think Chinese strategists should look at this development as necessary evil, the price to pay for US departure and orderly retreat from East Asia. China will then be free to influence both of these nations with soft power and economic entanglement, just like it is doing with Taiwan, much more so than before, without opposition from pro-US lobby and political blocs. Of course China have no claim for same nationhood with these two countries, but with so much economic firepower, China should be able to make them as virtual and close allies, even though all are armed with nukes at each other. I guess its a funny world, but I find truth is always stranger than fiction.