Japan takes a first step toward nuclear armament.

[Oldman1]

If Japan can have nukes, why can't Iran. Is it because of who is an ally of the west?

China's reaction to Japan having nukes would be catastrophic. It be like being Americans reacting to Iran.

But in the case of China's history with Japan, I believe China would commit first strike to prevent another attempt by Japan to commit atrocities of the past.

 

[kalu_miah]

China's reaction to Japan having nukes would be catastrophic. It be like being Americans reacting to Iran.

But in the case of China's history with Japan, I believe China would commit first strike to prevent another attempt by Japan to commit atrocities of the past.

Then may be Japan should support a Nuke program together with South Korea or ASEAN, since South Korean or ASEAN countries don't have an aggressive past?

Either way, everyone should get their nuke protection, if some countries have it, they have no right telling others that they cannot have it. That is like saying I have the stick now, but I will beat you up or kill you if you try to get your stick too.

 

[Oldman1]

Then may be Japan should support a Nuke program together with South Korea or ASEAN, since South Korean or ASEAN countries don't have an aggressive past?

Either way, everyone should get their nuke protection, if some countries have it, they have no right telling others that they cannot have it. That is like saying I have the stick now, but I will beat you up or kill you if you try to get your stick too.

Exactly China does not want to see an nuclear armed Japan so close to their country. Besides NK and China in East Asia there is no other armed nuclear state. But things change and SK, Japan, and Taiwan will start doing something if they believe the U.S. will not be there for them in the future and things could get messy in Asia especially with North Korea and over South China sea. China being surrounded by nuclear armed states is bad for them.

 

[TruthSeeker]

You visited Japan at least 25 times? I assume you're very wealthy then since I believe one trip will cost you around $5000 dollars

The American company that I worked for for most of my career had a Japanese subsidiary. I visited our co-laboratory in Ebina, Japan, as well as another Japanese collaborator in Ohito, Japan, many, many times. My company paid for all my visits. Ohito, on the Izu peninsula, was a wonderful place to visit.

 

[Sergi]

Hahaahha I must tell you everyone here is getting obsess with US flag.
A lot of people migrated to USA or are currently ashamed of their own nation ???

 

[amidamaru]

i don't see this happening

but i don't know if i would be opposed to it either. it would surely keep china in check, and stop it from bullying other countries in the region... but china would never let them develop these weapons in the first place, so usa would have to secretly give japan etc a few nukes that are ready for launch to prevent any pre-emptive attack from china.

it is a good idea to offset china, but it would possibly just bring about another bully to those who do not have these weapons

 

[kalu_miah]

well iran is "not allowed" to have nukes, because the iranian clerics call America the Great Satan and they mean it.

Iran and America were best of pals back in the days of the Shah. in fact when you look at the weapons they have, their best weapons are american weapons purchased by the Shah when America was willing to sell the very best to her best buddy. even though they are old, the Shah got only the best and with currently iranian upgrades ands modifications, they are still ok. anyway back in those days, iran was one of the few muslim country that didnt go apesh17 when they heard the word "israel."

But then Khomeini came along and since Iranians didnt like the Shah, they of course hated America by way of extension.

Then came Saddam Hussein whom we all know today to be an @ssw1pe, but he was even more of an @ssw1pe back then and massacred a lot of Iranians. Then being a total doofus, he actually started losing the war to a nation that was depleted of a major portion of its best military minds, because the clerics took them out for being the Shah's men. And here America started to sh@t in her pants since, we are totally dependent on muslim oil back then just like today, and we said, "hey, at least Saddam dont call us the Great Satan.". So America supported Iraq and Saddam was saved from a total @ssr@page by the Iranians. of course the Iranians now saw us as The Even More Evil Great Satan.

so today we here in America is scared of Iran and they are scared of us. even though we destroy the taleban and Saddam whom they absolutely despise. but now Iranians are more easy going and are like, "well dudes, we are muslims, but we also use internet for surf for p0rn just like you"

and that is the problem for the clerics of Iran. the young people of Iran just want to surf for p0rn like the rest of us, smoke some hookah, watch some football, and dont give a sh17 about watching some old boring imams giving endless sermons on telelvision. so what can the clerics do? now they have to keepmbashing America, because it's good way to stay popular. "hey if you are a patriotic Iranian, you must hate America!". and of course some iranian kid is going, "oh, i love my country! ok, Death to Amreeka!"

Then America flips out and say, "no nukes for Iran for God's sake!". then the clerics say, "oh, American hypocrites!". and all those patriotic Iranians band around the clerics saying, "oh we love Iran! we need nukes!"

and that is the short story in a nutshell. but real story gets even more complicated. you will need to ask an Iranian for the finer details to the saga.

That's a nice piece of easy to digest history of US-Iran relations, but may be we should go back a little more and include the British oil dealings, the CIA coup that removed Mosadegh etc., just to balance out the reason, why Iranians say "Death to Amreeka".

Iran

In 1953, Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq was overthrown by a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)-organized coup, in what has been called "a crucial turning point both in Iran's modern history and in U.S. Iran relations." Many Iranians argue that "the 1953 coup and the extensive U.S. support for the shah in subsequent years were largely responsible for the shah's arbitrary rule," which led to the "deeply anti-American character" of the 1979 revolution.[12]

In 1952 and 1953, the Abadan Crisis took place when Iranian Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadeq began nationalization of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC). Established by the British in the early 20th century, the company shared profits (85% for Britain, and 15% for Iran), but the company withheld their financial records from the Iranian government. By 1951, Iranians supported nationalization of the AIOC, and Parliament unanimously agreed to nationalize its holding of, what was at the time, the British Empire’s largest company. The British retaliated with an embargo on Iranian oil, which was supported by international oil companies. Over the following months, negotiations over control and compensation for the oil were deadlocked, and Iran's economy deteriorated.

Israel is a regional military outpost for the US in this resource rich area, with nukes and all, so US does not want any other competition in the region, I think. Also Iran getting nuke will also mean that regional rival Saudi's will want to get one as well, which is further problem for regional stability and Israel's security.

In any event, I personally do not support the "Mad Mullah's" trying to get a nuke, at this point. Even if they try and US/Israel eventually attacks Iran to neutralize the nuke threat, its not going to advance US interest in the region. Because it will only strengthen Iran's resolve, make an Iranian spring less likely and just defer the inevitable for a few years, but the US in the end will not be able to stop Iran from getting nukes. And Israel should get used to the idea of MAD instead of throwing tantrum, as every nuke capable powers already are satisfied with a balance created by Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

 

[kalu_miah]

Exactly China does not want to see an nuclear armed Japan so close to their country. Besides NK and China in East Asia there is no other armed nuclear state. But things change and SK, Japan, and Taiwan will start doing something if they believe the U.S. will not be there for them in the future and things could get messy in Asia especially with North Korea and over South China sea. China being surrounded by nuclear armed states is bad for them.

Every nation with a population of around 100 million or more and even some smaller more developed ones will get nukes, it will proliferate under a regional umbrella architecture or just by individual nations. There will be no good way to stop this eventuality, to maintain balance of power and threat perceptions.

Since N Korea was allowed to have nukes right under the nose of China, China have no moral argument to stop Japan, South Korea or bigger ASEAN nations from getting nuke capability, just citing ancient history. Imperial Japan is not today's Japan and China is more than capable to handle Japan, even a nuke powered Japan. So if the US is really an ally of Japan and South Korea, now more than ever a test will come when protection and cover will be needed, when both Japan and South Korea goes for full nuclear capability. I would also recommend for Japan and South Korea to go this route ASAP, as China's ability rises, US may not be able to provide cover from a Chinese threat, if the weaponization process is undertaken 10-20 years down the line.

Taiwan, however, is a completely different story. Taiwan is claimed as a part of "China", so this country/province making any moves for nuke ability may generate a furious reaction from China and it will be stopped at any cost.

 

[anonymousposter]

kalu,
good point about mosadegh. i left this bit out, because i dont know it well, so i figured an iranian could better explain it.

i just wanted to point out about Israel. America is dependent on muslim oil, so traditionally america supports whoever it is that sells oil to her. Mosadegh was probablu suspected of being Soviet friendly. Saddam was a buddy buddy until he decided to control all the oil by invading kuwait. and we all know what happened after that. But the real american military outpost of the middleeast isnt Irael. it is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They are the most important country in the middleeast and America will never ever ever let anything happen to her. So they always have the best american weapons. It was Saudi nationals who blew upmthe World Trade .center and those guys claimed that they had to free Saudi Arabia from "evil" American influence and "evil" Al Saud family. America didnt respond to 911 by blowing up Riyahd, they charged into Baghdad instead. why? people talk about how much money america forks over to israel, but what they dont talk about is the massive amount of money Saudis have invested in american stock market. US Saudi relations is what drives american middle east policy, because everyone else is just extras.

I mean why attack the Al Saud when they are buddy buddy with america, but Saddam was a naughty anti america boy. And Iran dont want to sell oil to America so they are like an after thought.

but whatever it is, America just wants all these countries to not have wars, because everytime there is a war, people in America get pissed off at the gas station. and you can bet there are a bunch of guys hoping and praying Iran will once again sell us oil.

 

[India defense]

yeah，every east asian country would have nuclear weapon，and USA would be expelled from East Asia.Isn't that good news？

Specially good news for China...after all Japan is making for China only...enjoy

 

[kalu_miah]

kalu,
good point about mosadegh. i left this bit out, because i dont know it well, so i figured an iranian could better explain it.

i just wanted to point out about Israel. America is dependent on muslim oil, so traditionally america supports whoever it is that sells oil to her. Mosadegh was probablu suspected of being Soviet friendly. Saddam was a buddy buddy until he decided to control all the oil by invading kuwait. and we all know what happened after that. But the real american military outpost of the middleeast isnt Irael. it is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They are the most important country in the middleeast and America will never ever ever let anything happen to her. So they always have the best american weapons. It was Saudi nationals who blew upmthe World Trade .center and those guys claimed that they had to free Saudi Arabia from "evil" American influence and "evil" Al Saud family. America didnt respond to 911 by blowing up Riyahd, they charged into Baghdad instead. why? people talk about how much money america forks over to israel, but what they dont talk about is the massive amount of money Saudis have invested in american stock market. US Saudi relations is what drives american middle east policy, because everyone else is just extras.

I mean why attack the Al Saud when they are buddy buddy with america, but Saddam was a naughty anti america boy. And Iran dont want to sell oil to America so they are like an after thought.

but whatever it is, America just wants all these countries to not have wars, because everytime there is a war, people in America get pissed off at the gas station. and you can bet there are a bunch of guys hoping and praying Iran will once again sell us oil.

Saudi/GCC alliance with the US is fine, both want it for their own reasons, but the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan were strategic blunders of enormous magnitude. You can ask anyone from GCC about it, making sure it is a Sunni person. Both of these costly misadventures needlessly empowered Shia Iran and enabled it in its own Pan-shia misadventures (Hizballah, Syria, Iraq - shia crescent), which will be very difficult to solve for decades.

US has been trying to get out of sourcing oil from Muslim countries for some time now. But keeping the oil flowing to the market to keep price stability is in everyone's interest, including the US.

I sell/promote my own brand of global foreign policy, for details, please look here:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164048-kalu_miahs-new-world-order-road-map-future.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180755-geopolitics-asean-region.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180771-geopolitics-gcc-region.html
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180767-geopolitics-eurasia-region.html

 

[xuxu1457]

It's hard to believe that Germany and Japan should have nuke weapons, one country had baka aircraft in WII is a crazy country in sometime, It's degerous for uncerebral country having Nuke weapons

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

Japan and South-Korea can get nukes only (let's be realistic) if USA let's them and that's a very unlikely thing to happen.

Right, but in case Uncle Sam continues to decline (only if), getting nuke toys are the best choice for Japan and the RoK.
The two countries have the ability to produce nuke toys, especially Japan.
They shouldn't be too confident on Uncle Sam's umbrella forever...

 

[anonymousposter]

h,mmm... it will take me a while for me to digest your thoughts on geopolitics... i will have to get back to you with ny thoughts on it, but may take me a while to go through the entire threads...

the thing about Iran is that most Iranians seem like just normal ordinary people. but what concerns me is what happens if they have nukes. if one of these normal ordinary iranian have a nuke, i wouldnt particularly care. but i think what every american dreads is the possibility of iranians giving nukes to hezbollah which could easily turn into wwiii.

that being said,mi agree that going into Iraq was a collasal mistake for america. but going to afghanistan, i have to disagree... because at the time, we didnt know that pakistan would be sheltering osama bin laden. and the war was about destroying al qaeda. the thing about afghanistan is, america leave that country tomorrow now that Osama is dead and if taleban takes over again, well it doesnt matter to america as long as they dont harbor the next al qaeda.

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

Nuclear bomb is best deterrant for war. No country can afford losing one or two cities just for gaining some false pride or other stupid notions.

So if Japan and S korea fear from a peaceful rising nation than they have right to develop the bomb.