Such heinous speech directed against China are totally
off topic in the Japanese Defence Subforum!
@Serpentine
It only betrays the French congenital racism, and inferiority complex, as exposing them being so backwards, surpassed not only by colored ex-colonized water carriers brown people of the Indian subcontinent but also the East Asian one. Following the latest test, this makes two East Asian nations, with Japan, an Empire that has ruled French Indochina during WWII, making the white Europeans French already subjugated people.
And no French ASAT superpower status in the horizon! Falling from their imaginary first place (that is what the media tells them), the Grande Nation's delusion is widening with each passing days!
More elaborated reply below:
Showa: The Fate Of Homo SS V1.0
© A Galactic Penguin presentation; First edited 13 August 2019; Updated 30 August 2019
Table of Contents
1.1. Preface
1.2. Introduction
1.3. Abstract
2. Background: The Final War Theory
3. Ahistorical Factors Used In The Modelization
3.1. The 1946 Threshold
3.2. GDP Triggers
3.3. China's Strategic Focus
3.4. Collapse Of The Axis-GEACS Unholy Alliance
3.5. Occupation policy
3.6. The Fate Of The Ethnic Europeans
4. Doctrines
4.1. Neutrality
4.2. North
Part 2
4.3. South
4.4. West
4.4.1. White Peace, Unilateral Withdrawal
4.4.2. Xi'an incident
4.4.3. Wang Jingwei
5. Conclusion
1.1. Preface
This paper is adapted from various historical research made purposely over a decade, covering mainly the 20th century, and centered around the Second World War timeframe.
To better understand the complex intermingling of all the historical chain of events and factors, an adaptation to a real time grand strategy computer game has been considered.
This should be released as a modification (mod) for Paradox's 'Hearts of Iron 4' (initially 'Hearts of Iron 2').
The mod can not be released yet, as the base program itself is far from being polished. Currently the V1.7.1 still lacks too many important historical features.
Works can not restart before the release of an estimated two more 2 DLCs, or about 12 months.
1.2. Introduction
Genetic differences among the various human ethnic subgroups, resulting from natural selection, as solutions to the challenges posed by the different type of ecosystems where they evolve, will inevitably take its toll over the millenia.
The European natives, also known as Neanderthals, were the first to have vanished, only 5'000 years after the invasion of the Homo sapiens sapiens (Homo S.S.) called 'European Modern Humans' (E.M.H.), that had migrated from Africa 45'000 Years BP.
The difference in intracranial volumes between the two groups were not in the Neanderthals' favor.
This pattern was latter repeated again and again in the Americas, in the Banda Islands, in Tasmania, in South-West Africa, etc.
Similarly, for the European Modern Humans, with a comparatively lower intracranial volume, and thus disadvantaged with lower cognitive abilities, as compare to the East Asian subgroups, the historical outcome is no less than three occurrences of near extinction reported over the last 1'500 years alone.
In all three occurrences, i.e. the year 453, 1241 and 1946, the survival of the European Modern Humans was so miraculous and so improbable, that even today, it is still misunderstood by the European Modern Humans themselves.
• The first miracle was recorded in the year 453, when Attila the Hun had crushed the Roman armies. The European Modern Humans escaping total annihilation was only due to Attila's mysterious death on his wedding night, possibly as a result of alcohol poisoning or esophageal hemorrhage.
• The second most improbable miracle was recorded in 1241, as Batu Khan had already totally defeated the European Modern Humans' forces, made of a Germanic, Polish and Bulgarian coalition. Batu Khan never went westward, to seize the then cornered and defenceless European Modern Humans' Kingdoms, because as the Mongols were about to invade Western Europe in December 1241, Ogedei Khan (Great Khan of the Mongol Empire) died during a drinking bout. Then his commanders, who were marching towards Vienna, abandoned their campaign, and returned in Mongolia to participate in the election of a successor.
While the first two events have been documented to some extend, the closest and last encounter remains still shrouded in state cover-up and secrecy. This paper will shed more light on the 1946 occurrence.
1.3. Abstract
Here we demonstrate how the Empire of Japan was in pole position to achieve the first ever world conquest in human history, back in 1936 on the eve of the Second Sino-Japanese War and subsequently the larger Pacific War (WWII).
We will study the various options available to the Nipponese leaders, along the fate of the ethnic Europeans, and how the less than 10% probability of not achieving a world conquest, but instead ending by the most unlikely major military defeat and occupation by a foreign power, has occurred.
But now the war has lasted for nearly four years. Despite the best that has been done by everyone--the gallant fighting of our military and naval forces, the diligence and assiduity of out servants of the State and the devoted service of our 100,000,000 people--the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest.
-Emperor Shōwa, Jewel Voice Broadcast, Transmitted by Domei on 15th August 1945
2. Background: The Final War Theory
Ishiwara Kanji (石原 莞爾, 18 January 1889 – 15 August 1949) was a general in the Imperial Japanese Army in World War II. He and Itagaki Seishirō were the men primarily responsible for the Mukden Incident that took place in Manchuria in 1931.
Prior to leaving for Germany, Ishiwara had converted to Nichiren Buddhism. Nichiren had taught that a period of massive conflict would precede a golden era of human culture in which the truth of Buddhism would prevail. Japan would be the center and main promulgator of the faith, which would encompass the entire world. Ishiwara felt that the period of world conflict was fast approaching, and Japan, relying upon its vision of the kokutai and its sacred mission to liberate China, would lead a unified East Asia to defeat the West.
Ishiwara was also the leader of a semi-religious and Pan-Asianist organization, the East-Asia League Movement (Tōarenmei undō).
In the wake of the First World War, Ishiwara came to formulate his theory of the “final war” (saishū sensō 最終戦争). The World Final Race Theory or Final War Theory, published in 1941, was a prophecy about the inevitability of the World War.
The Final War will be conducted with annihilation strategy in a very short period of time that will rely on massive use of weapons of mass destruction and aircrafts.
https://sales.arte.tv/fiche/KANJI_ISHIWARA__L_HOMME_QUI_DECLENCHA_LA_GUERRE
http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/世界最終戦論
Ishiwara believed history was inevitably moving humanity towards larger political entities, resulting in the nation-state, which was to be superseded by regional blocks. Eventually, he predicted a final war between Western civilization, led by the United States, and Asia, led by Japan. After this final war, the world would be unified with the Tennō as the spiritual Buddhist figurehead.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190808.../Nichirenism_Utopianism_and_Modernity_Ret.pdf
http://web.tohoku.ac.jp/modern-japan/wp-content/uploads/Nichirenism_Utopianism_and_Modernity_Ret.pdf
http://archive.is/6wywj
To strive for the common prosperity and happiness of all nations as well as the security and well-being of our subjects is the solemn obligation which has been handed down by our imperial ancestors and which we lay close to the heart.
Indeed, we declared war on America and Britain out of our sincere desire to insure Japan's self-preservation and the stabilization of East Asia, it being far from our thought either to infringe upon the sovereignty of other nations or to embark upon territorial aggrandizement.
-Emperor Shōwa, Jewel Voice Broadcast, Transmitted by Domei on 15th August 1945
3. Ahistorical Factors Used In The Modelization
We used a computer simulation to verify the outcome resulting from each of the four possible strategic paths available to the Nipponese leaders in 1936:
• Neutrality
• Northern Expansion
• Southern Expansion
• Western Expansion
The simulation was run for several months on Paradox's WWII grand strategy game 'Hearts of Iron 4' (HOI4), but the base version was reworked with several custom made modifications. Extensive use of console commands were also necessary in order to change many unmoddable aspects during the simulations, such as ethnic and occupation policies, historic events, peace conferences, declarations of war, justifications of war, core and claimed territories, joining alliances, sending volunteers and expeditionary forces, etc.
What was first an educated guess, i.e. a Nipponese world conquest by 1947s, has therefore been confirmed as an ahistorical possibility.
Many decisive factors, ahistorical by nature due to the real course of the WWII, have contributed to the final outcome, and therefore have been taken into account in the modelization:
•The 1946 Threshold
•GDP Triggers
•China's Strategic Focus
•Collapse of the Axis-GEACS unholy alliance
•Occupation policy
3.1. The 1946 Threshold
The Empire of Japan was the first to develop anti-air high-power microwave weapons during the Pacific war.
Nippon Radio Telegraph and Telephone Co., Ltd. has developed in 1939 the world’s first cavity magnetron, with punched positive copper pole, 10cm wave length and 500W power.
Research on microwave weapons（く号兵器） started on
December 1936 at the Imperial Japanese Army Noborito Laboratory (
陸軍登戸研究所).
Research on artificial lightning generator weapons（ら号兵器） by irradiating the sky with high intensity ultraviolet beams and ionization of the air, started on April 1938.
https://archive.fo/V3GBA/dbc7cfa97f1e5490153ce6edb84da7aba5a5a1a0.jpg ; https://i.imgur.com/qvRoak6.jpg ; http://web.archive.org/web/20170116...ge/1e/61/9027d3d1f5dadf4dfaf12bdacce7602d.jpg ; http://web.archive.org/web/20190810...ruribo0209/e/ae4059113f5cd2242b85e3735eec3db7 ; https://archive.fo/Vyo4N
▲ 1. Noborito Lab 9th Institute museum: some of the various directed energy weapons (microwave, UV, IR, Ultra sound, etc) and other automated/remote-controlled platforms research.
Anti-Aircraft EMF weapons rely on
air ionization and breakup, that occurs with an EMF frequency of 9.37GHz, the peak power up to 200kW, pulse width from 0.3 to 2.0μs.
Second Naval Technology Factory Ushio Laboratory ruins (第二海軍技術廠牛尾実験所遺跡)
Coordinates:
34°51'23.8"N, 138°07'44.6"E
34.856607°N, 138.129065°E
https://www.google.com/maps/place/3...32m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=en
Note: The site and all the concrete ruins have been removed circa February 28, 2015.
https://archive.fo/0GLgP/d0db040b4cbc3ca6bc0fb4df2f199566ea993c5e.jpg ; https://i.imgur.com/70HuDKy.jpg
▲ 2. Second Naval Technology Factory Ushio Laboratory ruins (第二海軍技術廠牛尾実験所遺跡)
Shimada Laboratory was dedicated to research on "
death ray" during the war.
After the Battle of Midway, Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto advocated the need to develop new revolutionary weaponry. The "death ray" project was launched around June to August 1942. Construction work started around May 1943. With staff member of 1,457 people and 60 researchers.
Original plan was first to increase the output power of the ultra-high frequency from the kW to hundreds of kW.
Nuclear power generator was expected to be used.
The basic design has been completed in 1944 around September, but it did not reach the stage of practical application, with a high-frequency radio wave output of 50kW using a 10 meters diameter parabolic reflector.
The whole project ended unfinished.
http://web.archive.org/web/20170116...or.blogimg.jp/shizuokak/imgs/8/a/8a60fe44.jpg ; http://web.archive.org/web/20160607072856/http://blog.livedoor.jp/shizuokak/archives/4794187.html ; https://archive.is/0rUGw
▲ 3. Very rare image of the 10 meters diameter parabolic reflector 50 kW output High-frequency radio wave. 昭和25年1月
▲ 4. The first excavation is expected to be conducted on the ruins of the "powerful radio wave weapon" developed by the former Navy. Published on Aug 14, 2013
As for the Imperial Japanese Navy, it began a nuclear propulsion for ships' feasibility study under the direction of Captain Yōji Itō at the Navy Technical Research Institute around January 1942.
Itō assembled a panel of experts, designated the “Committee for Research on the Application of Nuclear Physics (B-Research),”and invited Nishina to serve as chair.
The committee met ten or more times until March 1943, when the panel of experts concluded that Japan could not develop a nuclear weapon in time for the war. Itō disbanded the committee and turned his attention to developing
electron weapons, including a “death ray.”
Therefore, to bypass the inherent limitations cause by atmospheric air ionization and breakup that caused a tremendous loss of power and limited the useful range of all electromagnetic frequencies (EMF) Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) to under several hundreds of meters to a few kilometers, the Empire of Japan started from 1943 to investigate DEW produced by particle accelerators (cyclotrons).
Nishina laboratory at RIKEN (Institute for Physical and Chemical Research) was the first to study electron-decaying particles for DEW, called Uchūsen weapons (宇宙線兵器).
On
November 1944, the Empire of Japan started the launch of the world's first intercontinental weapons system.
With a wave of
9'300 transpacific fūsen bakudan (風船爆弾) or "windly vessel" sent 10'000 km away toward North America.
The program is known as Fu-Go (ふ号兵器), and the new platforms surf the powerful Kamikaze (神風: Divine Wind) stratospheric current (called afterwards jet streams in the West) that were discovered by Wasaburo Ooishi back in 1924, thus far above enemy interceptors altitude.
Conventional explosives alone were not enough for the Empire of Japan to defeat the U.S. and other Allies.
But DEW intercontinental stratospheric FUGOs would. As announced by the official Nipponese
Domei news agency and reported on Monday 4th June 1945,
large scale attacks with crewed gigantic stratospheric airships were to be expected soon!
One major hurdle was the imperative need to be able to weaponize an airborne particle accelerator reaching the threshold of >300 MeV to 500 MeV for protons/deuterons beam, needed to produce the first useful class of electron-decaying particles.
The overall size and mass of the cyclotron, with the electromagnet alone weighting 220 tons, should have imperatively needed to be shrinked.
A more compact design, while able to reach even higher energy level could have been possible with the replacement of the single massive electromagnet at the core of Nishina's cyclotron, with several smaller and more powerful magnets for bending the particle beams, while acceleration would have been produced by radiofrequency cavities (synchrocyclotron).
Moreover, Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) were only a small part of the military applications unlocked by Nishina's research at RIKEN. Weapons based on applied electron-decaying V-particles technologies have allowed the conception of powerful long-range intelligence gathering tools (long-range scanners), and ultimately of remote-controlling enemy forces.
For the most advanced weapons, the first use in combat could likely not have started before 1946.
Therefore, the year 1946 is the threshold if the Nipponese are to defeat all the other alliances. Remaining independent, is therefore of paramount importance, with its Manchurian or Siberian hinterland safe from enemy airstrikes, and possibly with most of its industrial capacity and access to strategic resources (rare metals, Rare Earth Elements, Aluminium, Uranium, Helium).
3.2. GDP Triggers
A well established predictor of military victory in great power warfare is GDP (Gross Domestic Product). When someone suggests that the Axis could not hope to defeat the Allies, the underlying assumption is that the relative material potential of the sides made an Axis victory impossible. Scholars readily accept and promulgate a caution against economic determinism, yet some still tend to accept it in practice.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190208005151/http://www.zuljan.info/articles/0302wwiigdp.html
In the simulations, GDP is related to the Industrial Capacity (I.C.).
It is the core factor that dictates when to strike and with which faction to wage war. But is is only a crude rule of thumb indicator of national strengths.
For more accuracy, instead of only comparing the Industrial Capacity, we also compared the number of military division deployed, divisions in training, the level of manpower available, the recruitment policies, the access to resources be it controlled or imported (metals, oil, rubber) and the technological level.
In short, the sum of the GDP of the Nipponese-lead alliance called Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere (GEACS) and the GDP of the powers fighting against the enemy of the GEACS, should always exceed that of the enemy alliance.
This is especially tricky when fighting against multiple factions each with its own separate diplomatic stance.
Historically, this was the part that failed for both the Allies, Axis and GEACS, while the Comintern outbeated all the other alliances, emerging as the undisputed victor.
And this will also dictate whether or not, and when to backstab former friends, as a total war, before they become too powerful.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190824062723/https://i.imgur.com/58NN1mY.jpg ; https://archive.is/6QaQ8/617988fd9292773aba8887cc3c14fcfe794eae09.jpg ;
http://web.archive.org/web/20170922...tarfire.com/ww2/history/economic/GDP1938.html ; http://archive.fo/ohw3w
▲ 5. 1938 GDP
Gross Domestic Product 1938
GDP in billions of 1990 USA Dollars; % of World Economy
USA : 800.3; 19.9%
USSR : 359.0; 8.9%
Germany : 351.4; 8.7%
China : 320.5; 8.0%
UK : 284.2; 7.1%
UK Colonies : 284.5; 7.1%
France : 185.6; 4.6%
Japan : 169.4; 4.2%
Italy : 140.8; 3.5%
UK Dominion : 114.6; 2.9%
Dutch Colonies : 77.4; 1.9%
Japanese Colonies : 62.9; 1.6%
French Colonies : 48.5; 1.2%
USA Colonies : 26.5; 0.7%
Thailand : 12.5; 0.3%
While the table contains more precise information, it is less intuitive to use than the map, that gives a good visual idea at a single glance of the comparative military strength of each factions.
Some trivia:
•Obvious is that the Comintern can not be defeated by the Axis alone, as both are roughly of the same strength. But a combined Axis, GEACS and Chinese attack can break the Comintern's resistance, with respectively a 26% of world GDP and 8.9% of world GDP, or a 2.9 to 1 GDP ratio.
•Obvious is that the Empire of Japan can't even match the Republic of China's strength, with 5.8% of world GDP and 8.0% of world GDP, meaning a small GDP ratio of only 0.725!
•The U.S.A.'s 21.6% of world GDP is of same strength as the combined expanded-Axis and GEACS with 22.6% of the world GDP. But the annexation of the Comintern would add some 8.9% of world GDP. Still not enough if the U.K. (7.1% of world GDP) survives. Meaning that the entire Old World's GDP is necessary before any assault on the New World can be envisaged.
3.3. China's Strategic Focus
The Republic of China's (R.O.C.) strategy should mainly be dictated by the core and claimed territories, as per the 1911 break up map of the collapsing Great Qing Imperial Government under the blows of the European sponsored Xinhai Revolution of 10th October 1911 (辛亥革命).
https://i.imgur.com/3lSSl5x.png ; https://archive.fo/0tFzm/5952027bebe2673105a5d8ad18375172fa7fb4cf.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20190823...een-shot-2018-10-21-at-2-33-23-pm-png.415610/ ; http://web.archive.org/web/20190823.../forum/threads/kolchaks-warlord-atlas.449267/ ; http://archive.fo/OvEDy
▲ 6. Great Qing Imperial Government 1911 Map.
https://i.imgur.com/bvChX1s.png ; https://archive.fo/q7Twj/e89684f1b6561cd79caf81dc903cd9befcf16518.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20190823...een-shot-2018-11-06-at-9-26-27-am-png.418734/ ; http://web.archive.org/web/20190823.../threads/kolchaks-warlord-atlas.449267/page-3 ; http://archive.fo/98AgR
▲ 7. Map of Chinese splinters in 1938 and foreign imperialism.
This means subjugating first the warlords (Ma Clique, Shansi Clique, Kwangsi Clique, Tunganistan, Dalai Clique, etc).
As for the foreign supported Communist Party of China (C.C.P.), and foreign satellites of Sinkiang, Mongolia, Tannu Tuva, Mengjiang and Manchukuo, Chiang Kai Shek believed that he was still too weak to launch an offensive to chase out foreign powers such as the Empire of Japan and the Soviet Union. He needed time for a military build-up. Only after unification would it be possible for the Kuomintang (KMT) to mobilize a war against The Empire of Japan and the U.S.S.R.
It is expected that following the victory achieved during Chiang Kai Shek and Hans von Seeckt's Fifth Bandit Extermination Campaign against the Jiangsu Soviet, that finally led in October 1934 to the famous Long March, the Kuomintang would have launched another campaign to destroy the Soviet base in Shaanxi where the Communist Army had regrouped in October 22, 1935.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_von_Seeckt
In most of the simulations, the CPC base in Shaanxi could be overtaken after 4 years of fighting by 1939, and sometimes even earlier.
This means that by the time WWII starts in Europe, with Fall Weiss or the German war on Poland on 1st September 1939, the R.O.C., having unified all the splinter factions, could have chased the remnants of the C.C.P in the Soviet Sinkiang or Mongolia.
Alternately, declaring war on Mongolia and Sinkiang would have been made possible due to the core territories claimed by the R.O.C.
To a lesser extent, the Sino-Soviet conflict of 1929 provides also a small leftover for a casus belli (level of tension).
Moreover, the presence of German military advisors such as Alexander von Falkenhausen were from day one intended to wage a two fronts war on the U.S.S.R.
An even better strategy is to wait and take time for a military build-up. About two years later, upon the start of Operation Barbarossa on 22nd June 1941, the R.O.C. would launch its own forces northward and westward, with a devastating effect on the Soviets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_conflict_(1929)
3.4. Collapse Of The Axis-GEACS Unholy Alliance
Racism indisputably played a central role during WWII. While Italian fascism was not notably racist, both German and Nipponese fascism were deeply racist. Although Himmler convinced himself that the Japanese had "Aryan" blood, he could not convince Hitler, who received Oshima twice shortly after Pearl Harbor but then not again for over a year. A Japanese proposal to attack Madagascar in 1942 was strongly opposed by the Germans as an infringement on the German sphere of operations (the dividing line was at 70 degrees east longitude.) Hitler is reported to have stated in March 1942 that he would enjoy lending Britain twenty divisions with which to drive back the Japanese in the Far East. Allied prisoners of war working at the docks at Singapore later reported that a U-boat crew had come to attention and saluted them as they were marched past by their Japanese captors.
Some idea of how artificial the alliance was can be gleaned from a communication on 26th July 1941 from the Thai prime minister to the American minister (Prange 1988):
The primer minister of Thailand advised the American minister that the German military attaché had warned him against "going too far" with Japan because "you cannot trust Japan." The attaché added ominously that Germany would "settle with the Empire of Japan after she has won the war in Europe."
http://web.archive.org/web/20190328165039/http://pwencycl.kgbudge.com/T/r/Tripartite_Pact.htm
http://archive.fo/wRRd9
In other words, the German “admiration” for Japan was as thoroughly cynical as the nonagression pact with the Soviet Union; and, had Germany won the war in Europe, the alliance with the Empire of Japan would very likely have eventually ended the same way.
https://www.quora.com/Why-did-Hitle...er-non-Aryan-European-countries-were-inferior
http://archive.fo/4QtI3
The non-aggression pact between Germany and the Soviet Union, a surprising development to begin with, has now less surprisingly fallen apart. Germany has attacked, breaking the pact and returned to once again openly speaking of the Soviet Union as a menace that must be faced for their visions of the future to become reality.
Soviet leadership is less than pleased, but perhaps less shocked by the betrayal than disappointed that they didn't seize the opportunity first.
Trust between giants is a fragile thing. -HOI4
https://archive.fo/qH6zz/801ffed5fd3f497b67783fd17d76cd9a57ae1acf/scr.png ; http://web.archive.org/web/20190823...0.jWIPIYGTkLqeh0koA1_G7IXkV0x2VQuzyKSbgz2iI-o ; http://web.archive.org/web/20190823...s-it-really-supposed-to-be-like.162419/page-4 ; http://archive.fo/teDsW
▲ 8. The dividing line between the Nipponese and German sphere of interests was at 70th degrees east longitude.
Hitler seemed to prefer the 70th degree of longitude border with the Empire of Japan (and only intended it as a temporary measure until he could defeat the Japanese in a subsequent war), the OKW preferred the Yenisei river border.
List of the most significant historical events potentially seen as a casus belli by Hitler against the Empire of Japan:
•By invading the Republic of China in 1937, a nation with an army reorganized and trained by German advisors and an important trade partner, the Nipponese have harmed the German interests in East Asia, especially their preparations to wage a two-front war on the Comintern.
•On December 6, 1938, the Five ministers council which was the highest decision making council at the time,took the decision to prohibit the expulsion of the Jews from Japan, Manchuria, and China in accordance with the spirit of racial equality. Thereafter, the Nipponese received Jewish refugees despite Germany's opposition, thus totally undermining Hitler's endeavour to exterminate that ethic group.
•The Japanese–Soviet Non-aggression Pact signed on April 13, 1941, allowed the Nipponese to trade with Germany's worse enemy until the final collapse of the Third Reich. By not declaring war on the Soviet Union, before and after 1941 as requested by Hitler, the Nipponese did nothing to save the doomed Axis.
•By demanding the control of French Indochina, the Nipponese have harmed the German interests in East Asia, and weakened the prestige and legitimacy of the German puppet French State of Philippe Petain, thus increasing the probability of further betrayal of French overseas colonies, that could be incited to defect to the Free France of De Gaulles.
•By invading Thailand on 8th December 1941, a nation considered to be in the German sphere of interest, and that has recently pledged its allegiance by germanising its Siamese name as 'Thailand' in 23rd June 1939, while adopting the same militaristic and nationalistic rhetoric, the Nipponese have undermined the Germans' ambitions in South East Asia.
•By demanding the control of some ports in Madagascar, seen as an infringement on the German sphere of operations and the dividing line set at 70th degrees east longitude, the Nipponese have weakened the prestige and legitimacy of the German puppet French State of Philippe Petain, thus increasing the probability of further betrayal of French overseas colonies, that could be incited to defect to the Free France of De Gaulles.
•By defeating, humiliating and brutalising ethnic Europeans in East Asia, civilian and military alike, such as sex slavery, the infamous death march or worse the Unit 731 biomedical experiments, the Nipponese have shattered the myth of the invincible superior Aryan master race, thus totally discrediting the Hitlerite ideology's core concept.
As for the Nipponese, reasons also abounds to backstab the Axis when the situation permits.
List of the most significant historical events potentially seen as a casus belli by Tojo against the Axis:
•By helping the Republic of China with arms export and military advisors, Germany has undermined the Nipponese military conquest of China.
•By signing the 1939 Molotov–Ribbentrop Non-Aggression Pact, while the Soviet army was defeating the Nipponese military in Manchuria along the Mongolian border, Hitler has betrayed the Anti-Comintern Pact signed on November 25, 1936, and that was aimed at the Soviet Union.
•By invading the USSR in June 1941 with Operation Barbarossa, again without notice, Germany has betrayed the Nipponese, that had just signed two months earlier their own Japanese–Soviet Non-aggression Pact, on 13th April 1941.
•By relinquishing on Nipponese demands for controlling ports in Madagascar, the Germans have not helped the Nipponese war effort in the Indian Ocean.
3.5. Occupation policy
Whether or not the Nipponese would decide to simply annex a conquered nation or instead create a puppet state can result in a tremendous difference in the short run on the outcome of the war.
Due to the limited core Nipponese's manpower, as compared to the world most populated powers such as China, the Soviet Union, and the U.S., and after extensive testing, the best results were obtained when we created at least one, possibly two fully independent allied states, as great powers, able to sustain on their own, a brutal campaign on the western front, fighting at the same time both the Comintern, Axis and Allies, thus relieving the Nipponese military that should primarily focus all its naval assets on the Pacific Ocean's front against the U.S. fleet.
Creating smaller entities would simply be a waste of human, military and industrial capacities.
Culture, ethnicity and religion is of great importance in deciding where to create these great powers, and their territorial extend.
Although these factors were not modelized in the base simulation program, nonetheless the occupation policies have been enacted according to the cultural, ethnic and religious map of the real world.
•The first one will be created on Soviet conquered lands. The ethnicity should be mainly Mongol-centered.
Koreans, Manchurians and all the other ethnic groups living in Northern China with higher body mass to body surface ratio, and therefore with better resistance to extreme cold attrition, would replace the destroyed ethnic Europeans.
Nipponese should only be present as advisors in the administrative, economic, industrial, educational, and other top military positions.
This great military power would constitute an effective equivalent of a modern time greater Mongol Khanate (Mengkukuo).
•The second one is centered around a core of Buddhists populations of South East Asia, and covers mainly French Indochina (Laos, Cambodia), British Burma, British Malaya, and even most of the British India.
Therefore constituting an effective equivalent of a modern greater Rattanakosin Empire.
Nipponese should only be present as advisors in the administrative, economic, industrial, educational, and other top military positions.
The rest of South East Asia (Philippines, Dutch East Indies, British Malaya, Australia, New Zealand, New Caledonia) would be administered directly by the Nipponese military occupation authorities.
Some minor islands of the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and Sout East Asia could be released as puppet states with the lowest level of autonomy.
For all other conquered nations, direct administration by the Nipponese Army is applied by default. This covers the Middle East and Africa.
3.6. The Fate Of The Ethnic Europeans
Ethnic policies i.e. transfer of populations, while more than minor details during the WWII, have been occulted in the base simulation program.
Some were simply obliterated such a the Volga Germans, the Crimean Tatars or the Gypsies, while replacement policies were carried out in Koenigsberg and elsewhere.
But this can be simulated somewhat with the political decisions. Meaning, there will be no puppet state released on conquered land populated by ethnic Europeans, only transfer of populations from East Asia.
As for the Nipponese, the Kantokuen plan for operation in the Soviet Union, discloses the massive use of biochemical weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the harshest occupation policy, that parallels the German's Generalplan Ost and Hungerplan.
https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9785953353458
http://web.archive.org/web/20190822021216/https://isbnsearch.org/isbn/9785953353458
http://archive.fo/N9TxX
Racism indisputably played a central role during WWII. The Nipponese fascism was deeply racist considering the Nipponese as the Master race, with its Emperor of divine origine.
This doctrine is probably rooted in the 19th century political philosophy 'Sonnō jōi' (尊皇攘夷, Revere the Emperor, expel the barbarians), and a political slogan in the 1850s and 1860s in the movement to overthrow the Tokugawa shogunate during the Bakumatsu period. Also influenced by the unipolar world as envisaged in the 'World Final Race Theory' (Final War Theory: Sekai saishū senron, 世界最終戦論).
'An Investigation of Global Policy with the Yamato Race as Nucleus' (大和民族を中核とする世界政策の検討) was a secret Nipponese government report created by the Ministry of Health and Welfare's Population Problems Research Center, and completed on July 1, 1943.
The document states that the Nipponese, the Yamato Race, were superior to all other races, the exploitation of other countries was a policy separate from the war.
Another principle of Nipponese doctrine was Hakkō ichiu (八紘一宇: all the world under one roof), meaning that the imperial rule had been divinely ordained to expand until it united the entire world, and was further propelled by preparations for celebrating the 2600th anniversary of the legendary first emperor Jimmu's ascension, which fell in the year 1940 according to the traditional chronology.
As the war went on, the characterization of the fighting became a 'holy war' (聖戦: seisen).
Therefore the physical extermination of all ethnic Europeans would have been the most likely, not only in Asia but also in all the Old World and then in the New World.
This is even more thinkable if the war between the Axis and GEACS were to be started as a surprise backstabbing move by Hitler.
4. Doctrines
We used a computer simulation to verify the outcome resulting from each of the four possible strategic paths available to the Nipponese leaders in 1936.
These were mostly all historical doctrines, but we added some changes to better serve the Nipponese interests.
According to the above mentioned GDP Triggers, we did not engage in wars that have occurred historically, if this was obviously too risky. Sticking only to the most conservative approach.
Thus, irrational mystical gambler mentality of the historical Nipponese leaders has been overridden in these simulations. Meanwhile, German and Soviet historical self-defeating decisions have not been overridden.
4.1. Neutrality
This is the best option for the Nipponese planners when trying to reach the 1946 Threshold.
Isolationism and pacifism yield the best result. Staying out of the international turmoil, while all other great powers exhaust their resources in futile brawls, and divert their efforts from fundamental research in high energy physics.
This is especially true for the Allies, who had collected most of the world' experts in particle physics by 1939, only to waste their talent in needless radar and nuclear weapon developments, while the Empire of Japan was focused primarily on studying high energy physics.
Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) were only a small part of the military applications unlocked by Nishina's high energy research at RIKEN. Weapons based on applied electron-decaying V-particles technologies have allowed the conception of powerful remote intelligence gathering tools (long-range scanners), and ultimately of remote-controlling enemy forces.
For the most advanced strategic-range stratospheric FUGO airships, the first military offensive could not be launched before 1946.
Therefore, the year 1946 is the threshold if the Nipponese are to start a world conquest and defeat the three great alliances (Allies, Axis and Comintern). Remaining independent, with its Manchurian hinterland safe from enemy airstrikes, and all its industrial capacity and access to strategic resources (rare metals, Rare Earth Elements, Aluminium, Uranium, Helium), is therefore of decisive importance.
Meanwhile, the Nipponese are advised to be cautious, and maintain a minimum military deterrence in Manchukuo and Mengjiang, i.e. the Kwantung Army, in order to not invite a Soviet invasion. Moreover, the Comintern will continue its provocations, in the form of terrorism (targeting occupation police forces, roads, factories, depots, etc) and assassinations. The Nipponese must imperatively no overreact and fall in the trap by declaring war on the Comintern and ROC, and only limit its response to small scale anti-partisan operations.
Timeline
•The Kōdōha or Imperial Way Faction (皇道派) was a political faction in the Imperial Japanese Army active in the 1920s and 1930s. The Kōdōha sought to establish a military government that promoted totalitarian, militarist, and aggressive expansionist ideals, and was largely supported by junior officers. The radical Kōdōha rivaled the moderate Tōseiha (Control Faction) for influence in the army until the February 26 Incident in 1936, when it was de facto dissolved and many supporters were disciplined or executed.
They supported the plan of the northern expansion into Siberia.
Here the February 26 Incident in 1936, ahistorically never took place, due to the conspirators' accidental death while planting bombs. Furthermore, Tojo dies tragically in a aircraft accident.
•Instead of escalating into a full scale war in China, there is no Marco Polo Bridge incident, the Empire of Japan adopts an defensive stance in Manchukuo and Mengjiang.
•By 1942, the Empire of Japan under Nishina's team at RIKEN, makes two epochal breakthroughs by studying cosmic rays, in the development of quantum electrodynamics theory (QED): Tomonaga's relativistically covariant formulation of the quantum field theory, and Sakata's two-meson theory.
•By 1943, the Empire of Japan investigates the military applications of artificially produced cosmic rays.
•By 1944, the Empire of Japan, investigates and map the transcontinental high altitude stratospheric air current patterns, with the first stratospheric fully-automated FUGO sounding balloons.
•By 1945, the Empire of Japan, unlocks the military applications of artificially produced cosmic rays by developing new-type ultra-high energy particle accelerators.
First large-size manned stratospheric FUGO airships are tested during the winter season.
•By 1946, the Empire of Japan, starts its world conquest, by launching waves of transcontinental stratospheric FUGO airships armed with particle accelerators over all major capital cities of the world.
4.2. North
Hokushin-ron (北進論, "Northern Expansion Doctrine" or "Northern Road") was a pre-World War II political doctrine of the Empire of Japan which stated that Manchuria and Siberia were Japan's sphere of interest and that the potential value to Japan for economic and territorial expansion in those areas was greater than elsewhere. Its supporters were sometimes called the Strike North Group. It enjoyed wide support within the Imperial Japanese Army during the interwar period.
The Army favored a "counterclockwise strike" while the Navy favored a "clockwise strike".
This option is more challenging than the neutrality. It will cost many lives, and resources, but the territorial expansion will also provide more new resources. The downside is that upon reaching the dividing line at 70 degrees east longitude, red line fixed by Hitler, the Empire of Japan will give the Germans a casus belli for a backstabbing.
First, the priority is to defeat the Soviet Union, while the Axis must survive.
Once the Soviet Union is defeated, the next priority is the defeat of the Axis, while the British Islands must remain independent.
Finally, the control of all the Old world is the first step before starting the conquest of the New world.
Timeline
•The Kōdōha or Imperial Way Faction (皇道派) was a political faction in the Imperial Japanese Army active in the 1920s and 1930s. The Kōdōha sought to establish a military government that promoted totalitarian, militarist, and aggressive expansionist ideals, and was largely supported by junior officers. The radical Kōdōha rivaled the moderate Tōseiha (Control Faction) for influence in the army until the February 26 Incident in 1936, when it was de facto dissolved and many supporters were disciplined or executed.
They supported the plan of the northern expansion into Siberia.
Here the February 26 Incident in 1936, is ahistorically succesful and we support the Kodoha Faction.
•Instead of escalating into a full scale war in China, there is no Marco Polo Bridge incident, the Empire of Japan adopts an offensive stance in Manchukuo and Mengjiang.
•By 15th May 1937, the Empire of Japan escalates border clashes in Manchuria into a full scale invasion of the Soviet Union, Mongolia and Tannu Tuva.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830115826/https://i.imgur.com/QBUXgtv.png ; https://archive.is/u4vNu/495c70ecebf65d6a7ff77d9a6c127449ceceb770.png
▲ 9. By 15th May 1937, the Empire of Japan escalates border clashes in Manchuria into a full scale invasion of the Soviet Union.
•By 9th September 1938, the Republic of China annexes the last warlord factions, while surviving remnants of the C.C.P Red Army flee to Mongolia.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830120107/https://i.imgur.com//WER2E7H.png ; https://archive.fo/yDHHy/232ba499b8e196003787b3facba7d963a778bc8c.png
▲ 10. By 9th September 1938, the Republic of China annexes the last warlord factions.
•By 24th August 1939, Germany declares war on Poland (Fall Weiss).
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830120358/https://i.imgur.com/NNE5esH.png ; https://archive.fo/jScg7/1dba26cba639e6a34a5d80a060023541f3a80611.png
▲ 11. By 24th August 1939, Germany declares war on Poland (Fall Weiss).
•By 16th May 1941, the Empire of Japan declares war on the Allies (Philippines, British Malaya, Dutch East Indies, Hong Kong).
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830120713/https://i.imgur.com/Ue0LBSC.png ; https://archive.fo/331PZ/2f7bd920958090ffdc7179280ef0a8af91e352bf.png
▲ 12. By 16th May 1941, the Empire of Japan declares war on the Allies.
•By 10th July 1941, the Axis invades the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa).
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830120903/https://i.imgur.com/GlP4WJw.png ; https://archive.fo/nSA3a/e32185e7b0ff2fc850354637ea9121393ec58855.png
▲ 13. By 10th July 1941, the Axis invades the Soviet Union (Operation Barbarossa).
•By 29th October 1941, the Republic of China declares war on the Soviet Union.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830121054/https://i.imgur.com/TSXZMTg.png ; https://archive.fo/j89Sn/d41f042dd3a15826282b200d9ac8320c5d3a48a9.png
▲ 14. By 29th October 1941, the Republic of China declares war on the Soviet Union.
•By 21st January 1944, the Republic of China joins the GEACS, with a secret agreement offering the retrocession of all core and claimed territories, including Manchuria and Taiwan after the defeat of the Axis.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830121403/https://i.imgur.com/A2QKnzs.png ; https://archive.fo/d1FBQ/33f53ac56ee9512bae7b26357f94978a2265d853.png
▲ 15. By 21st January 1944, the Republic of China joins the GEACS.
•By 10th April 1944, Axis and GEACS armies make first contact, north of Stalingrad, effectively cutting the Soviet Union in two.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830121631/https://i.imgur.com/mc3wjxD.png ; https://archive.fo/PSc5a/3b8c89ef8b8224f7c75e45eb0062ab74d8641a0e.png
▲ 16. By 10th April 1944, Axis and GEACS armies make first contact, north of Stalingrad.
•By 11th April 1944, the Soviet Union collapses. No longer able to oppose any organized resistance, Stalin and the Soviet leadership with the remnants of the Red Army, having lost the control of all urban areas, retreat in the mountains and forests of the Ural, Caucasus and Siberia to continue a desperate low level partisan warfare.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830121856/https://i.imgur.com/yl90WWT.png ; https://archive.fo/UMM4h/7ae8756324f16ce153424a7c4d3ea2ee62f3b225.png
▲ 17. By 11th April 1944, the Soviet Union collapses.
•By 27th November 1944, Hitler launches a backstabbing war on the GEACS.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190830122140/https://i.imgur.com/Wq12ErF.png ; https://archive.fo/VdZWg/204a712080b72ddd182101a3a569b5592fd0608a.png
▲ 18. By 27th November 1944, Hitler launches a backstabbing war on the GEACS.
At this point, the GDP of the Axis still surpasses that of the GEACS. But the Axis has to fight the Allies at the same time. Meaning a GEACS victory is not impossible. The Axis will have to divide its forces on three fronts, in northern Europe, in eastern Europe and in Africa.
The added Allies's GDP and GEACS's GDP will outbeat that of the Axis.
Therefore, the best strategy for the GEACS is to let the Axis and Allies fight both in Europe and in Africa, while minimizing the GEACS's land war with the Allies, and concentrating on the European front against the Axis.
Containing the Allies with the Nipponese fleet in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean should suffice at this stage.
The main priority is to destroy the Axis and not weakening the Allies. Most importantly, the British islands must not fall to the Axis. This stronghold is of prime importance for launching devastating strategic bombings on the German's core industrial and demographic heartland. The Allies' air superiority over Europe will also help the GEACS advancing westward, as matching the German aeronautical production is not possible in the short term.
The GEACS must concentrate on conquering as much Axis-controlled territories as possible, and try capturing Berlin before the Allies.
•By 1946, the Empire of Japan, starts a new phase in its world conquest, by launching waves of transcontinental stratospheric FUGO airships armed with particle accelerators.
