Frankly speaking
If we looks the map
It brings the whole situation into shape
Iran has 1 Million + Armed men and women in Military that is alot
Lets juts look at the scenario
They have Good Air defence capabilities
a) They got long range Surface to Surface Missiles
b) They got Mid range Missiles
c) They got Short range missiles
So the normal planes like F16 , F15S, Canarry birds , all all dead ducks
They use systems (missile systems that are still main part of British air defences so there you go)
Plus they can launch 600 missiles at Israel in matter of 2 hours , we (here I mean me and you as reader including Indian) can imagine what the situation will be on ground , as these missiles are not going to be silly old qassam rockets.
Now we look at the other element -
One of the decisive factors for Iran would be , if it can link up with Syrian forces by Land so obviously the push will be made thru Iraq and also US will retaliate from Afghanistan.
Iran stated that it would block the oil supplies which it will and can
so logically if we view the map , Iran would drop 10,000-20,000 troops into UAE , and possible UAE has no military just planes which could become Iranian planes in matter of days. If Iran preemtive strikes UAE.
Instant access to F16E/F
Iran could move its 200+ Heliocpter fleet into UAE, and capture the base or knock out major allied forces in Afghanistan
They S200 , or possibly S300 systems can carry almost 150 missiles meaning they can get 150 kills in air !!!
Then again Iran also has Tor missile systems and other
locally produced systems!!!
This is why their research and development comes into factor
They also have ample supply of shoulder based missiles
Now comes the interesting part
So what will the Iranian Airforce do ? or could do
Well simple patrol and spot Stealth fighters
dog fight it
400-500 planes to watch out for stealth is pretty good plan
So what are Iranian chances ... are they done yet ? No
3000 KM range , nuclear capable missiles
I would think twice before trying something that should be tried
I mean really Iran could take over UAE, knock out US out of Iraq/Afghanistan (once supplies are cut off for Afghanistan)
And Syria can move into Iraq as well instead of going into Israel , and all the fire power is launched at Israel ..
Yeah
300+ C130 Hercules would drop in supplied of shoulder fired stingers and drop it off in Lebonoon , and you got your self , ample force to take out the F16 rightinside israel tunnel it thru ... into Israel
If I was Iran I would make sure , that there are enough shoulder fired missiles , that are dropped off in syria and lebnoon -
Iran could knock out all airfields for allies and israel in matter of few days
Plus they also have 400-500 planes as well enough to engage stealth fighters in air-air battles dogfights -
Do they have BVR ? or Air-Air - ? You tell me -
Do they also have S300 systems ? You tell me-
Will you dare fly 1200 km to Iran only to find S300 and scramble back only to find your old airport fields uncapable of landind and you end up ditching your F16 into dead seas?
Can, anyone risk war in Afghanistan again ?? they can't contain 100-2000 rouge taliban how can they fight 1,000,000 armed men to teeth !!!!
Did I mentioned Syria will also use its 400,000 men in military to crowd out iraq ?
Who do you think the typical Iraqi solider will work with arab speaking syrians
or ajnabi occupation soliders ?
100+ cobras to support from air
Also not forgeting
Syrian 200 Fighters planes just in case they happen to engage the returning F16 Low on fuel in a dog fight - who happened to get just caught mid way
Iran is generally not interested in war but what can you do when someone attacks you or put sanctins on your country , just like in ww2 sanctions and embargoes lead to world wars