http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/w...s-hezbollah-gains-battle-skills-in-syria.html
TEL AVIV — Hezbollah’s distracting and costly engagement in the Syrian civil war has offered some practical benefit to Israelis. It has also been a source of foreboding.
On the one hand, Hezbollah, the militant Lebanese Shiite organization that fought a monthlong war against Israel in 2006, is preoccupied with shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria in its struggle against rebel forces, and is suffering losses.
But Hezbollah is also acquiring battlefield experience, and the only way for Mr. Assad, a longtime Hezbollah ally, to repay the group is by supplying it with sophisticated weapons, according to Israeli military officials and experts — strengths that could eventually be used against Israel.
“Hezbollah has 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers today in Syria,” a senior Israeli military officer told reporters at army headquarters here last week. “This is a major burden for Hezbollah but also a major advantage.” Speaking on the condition of anonymity in accordance with Israeli Army rules, he added, “I have no doubt that Hezbollah gained much more self-confidence because of the Syrian experience.”
Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets at Israel during the 2006 war, which began after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers on the Israel-Lebanon border. More than 1,000 Lebanese and dozens of Israelis were killed in the fighting, which ended with a United Nations-brokered cease-fire. The war was deemed a failure by many Israelis, though experts say it restored a degree of deterrence.
Since then, Israel’s border with Lebanon has been mostly quiet. But Israel is preparing intensively for another possible round of fighting with Hezbollah, which military planners here see as inevitable. In their view, the experience gained by Hezbollah’s commanders and fighters in Syria is likely to make that next round more challenging for Israel.
“This kind of experience cannot be bought,” said Gabi Siboni, director of the military and strategic affairs program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Mr. Siboni and other analysts said that Hezbollah’s experience in Syria should not be overstated since the group is fighting rebel forces like the Free Syrian Army and jihadist groups, not a modern, regular army. Still, Mr. Siboni said: “It is an additional factor that we will have to deal with. There is no replacement for experience, and it is not to be scoffed at.”
While the Israeli military used to plan for conventional armored battle — tanks against tanks — now its forces train to withstand fighters who have antitank missiles and secret underground hide-outs.
Over the last two years, according to military officials, much Israeli Army training has moved from the southern desert to the Galilee region in the north, where the terrain is similar to that of Lebanon and Syria.
At the same time, the Israeli military is conducting a mostly covert campaign to maintain a qualitative edge over Hezbollah and curb the buildup of the group’s weaponry. Israel has refused to confirm or deny involvement in about half a dozen airstrikes over the past year, mostly in Syrian territory. But Israel’s leaders have said they will act to prevent transfers of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah from Syria, such as accurate, long-range rockets and shore-to-ship or ground-to-air missiles. Israel is also concerned about Hezbollah’s acquisition of unmanned aerial vehicles, more commonly known as drones or U.A.V.’s.
“A Hezbollah with modern surface-to-air systems, with modern U.A.V.’s, with modern cybercapabilities, well, this is a different Hezbollah,” the senior military official said, one that could have “much more appetite to taste another conflict with Israel.”
In a departure from its usual practice of remaining silent about the Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah openly accused Israel of striking one of its positions on the Lebanon-Syria border on the night of Feb. 24, and it threatened to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing.
Days later, in another unusual development, Israeli forces in the Golan Heights fired artillery shells at a small squad of men across the Israel-Syria frontier who were said to have been trying to plant an explosive device. The Israeli military described the men as “Hezbollah-affiliated terrorists.” The official Syrian news agency, SANA, said the Israeli fire wounded seven Syrian security personnel and four civilians.
If the men were indeed affiliated with Hezbollah, the episode could indicate that the group has started operating against Israel in a new arena, along the decades-old cease-fire line between Israel and Syria.
Still, many Israeli analysts believe that for Hezbollah, the disadvantages of its engagement in Syria outweigh the advantages, and that there is an upside for Israel.
Fighting to help preserve the Assad government in Syria is “almost existential” for Hezbollah, said Ely Karmon of the International Institute for Counterterrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel. Under the Assad family’s rule, all of Hezbollah’s Iranian-supplied weapons passed through Damascus, Syria’s capital. And the group, Mr. Karmon said, has “always needed the strategic umbrella of Syria.”
Hezbollah has been amassing weaponry since 2006, years before the civil war in Syria began. But Mr. Karmon said that Hezbollah’s advanced weapons, supplied by Iran, were intended mainly for use against Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program.
Under cover of the chaos in Syria, Israel has been freer to take action against the weapons buildup without fear of retaliation, the assumption being that Hezbollah, embroiled in Syria, is not in a position now to open another broad front against Israel.
In addition, analysts here say, the Lebanese group’s image at home and in the broader Arab world has been severely damaged because it is fighting Sunni rebels in Syria while its legitimacy rested on its role in fighting Israel.
Hezbollah’s reputation is suffering further, according to Shaul Shay, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, because of the increasing spillover from the Syrian conflict onto Lebanese soil in the form of a wave of deadly bomb attacks.
Syria is Hezbollah’s “Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq,” said Yoram Schweitzer, an expert at the Institute for National Security Studies. Though Hezbollah is acquiring battle experience, Mr. Schweitzer said, “in my view, the price it is paying is greater than the gain.”
TEL AVIV — Hezbollah’s distracting and costly engagement in the Syrian civil war has offered some practical benefit to Israelis. It has also been a source of foreboding.
On the one hand, Hezbollah, the militant Lebanese Shiite organization that fought a monthlong war against Israel in 2006, is preoccupied with shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria in its struggle against rebel forces, and is suffering losses.
But Hezbollah is also acquiring battlefield experience, and the only way for Mr. Assad, a longtime Hezbollah ally, to repay the group is by supplying it with sophisticated weapons, according to Israeli military officials and experts — strengths that could eventually be used against Israel.
“Hezbollah has 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers today in Syria,” a senior Israeli military officer told reporters at army headquarters here last week. “This is a major burden for Hezbollah but also a major advantage.” Speaking on the condition of anonymity in accordance with Israeli Army rules, he added, “I have no doubt that Hezbollah gained much more self-confidence because of the Syrian experience.”
Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets at Israel during the 2006 war, which began after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers on the Israel-Lebanon border. More than 1,000 Lebanese and dozens of Israelis were killed in the fighting, which ended with a United Nations-brokered cease-fire. The war was deemed a failure by many Israelis, though experts say it restored a degree of deterrence.
Since then, Israel’s border with Lebanon has been mostly quiet. But Israel is preparing intensively for another possible round of fighting with Hezbollah, which military planners here see as inevitable. In their view, the experience gained by Hezbollah’s commanders and fighters in Syria is likely to make that next round more challenging for Israel.
“This kind of experience cannot be bought,” said Gabi Siboni, director of the military and strategic affairs program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.
Mr. Siboni and other analysts said that Hezbollah’s experience in Syria should not be overstated since the group is fighting rebel forces like the Free Syrian Army and jihadist groups, not a modern, regular army. Still, Mr. Siboni said: “It is an additional factor that we will have to deal with. There is no replacement for experience, and it is not to be scoffed at.”
While the Israeli military used to plan for conventional armored battle — tanks against tanks — now its forces train to withstand fighters who have antitank missiles and secret underground hide-outs.
Over the last two years, according to military officials, much Israeli Army training has moved from the southern desert to the Galilee region in the north, where the terrain is similar to that of Lebanon and Syria.
At the same time, the Israeli military is conducting a mostly covert campaign to maintain a qualitative edge over Hezbollah and curb the buildup of the group’s weaponry. Israel has refused to confirm or deny involvement in about half a dozen airstrikes over the past year, mostly in Syrian territory. But Israel’s leaders have said they will act to prevent transfers of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah from Syria, such as accurate, long-range rockets and shore-to-ship or ground-to-air missiles. Israel is also concerned about Hezbollah’s acquisition of unmanned aerial vehicles, more commonly known as drones or U.A.V.’s.
“A Hezbollah with modern surface-to-air systems, with modern U.A.V.’s, with modern cybercapabilities, well, this is a different Hezbollah,” the senior military official said, one that could have “much more appetite to taste another conflict with Israel.”
In a departure from its usual practice of remaining silent about the Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah openly accused Israel of striking one of its positions on the Lebanon-Syria border on the night of Feb. 24, and it threatened to retaliate at a time and place of its choosing.
Days later, in another unusual development, Israeli forces in the Golan Heights fired artillery shells at a small squad of men across the Israel-Syria frontier who were said to have been trying to plant an explosive device. The Israeli military described the men as “Hezbollah-affiliated terrorists.” The official Syrian news agency, SANA, said the Israeli fire wounded seven Syrian security personnel and four civilians.
If the men were indeed affiliated with Hezbollah, the episode could indicate that the group has started operating against Israel in a new arena, along the decades-old cease-fire line between Israel and Syria.
Still, many Israeli analysts believe that for Hezbollah, the disadvantages of its engagement in Syria outweigh the advantages, and that there is an upside for Israel.
Fighting to help preserve the Assad government in Syria is “almost existential” for Hezbollah, said Ely Karmon of the International Institute for Counterterrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel. Under the Assad family’s rule, all of Hezbollah’s Iranian-supplied weapons passed through Damascus, Syria’s capital. And the group, Mr. Karmon said, has “always needed the strategic umbrella of Syria.”
Hezbollah has been amassing weaponry since 2006, years before the civil war in Syria began. But Mr. Karmon said that Hezbollah’s advanced weapons, supplied by Iran, were intended mainly for use against Israel in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program.
Under cover of the chaos in Syria, Israel has been freer to take action against the weapons buildup without fear of retaliation, the assumption being that Hezbollah, embroiled in Syria, is not in a position now to open another broad front against Israel.
In addition, analysts here say, the Lebanese group’s image at home and in the broader Arab world has been severely damaged because it is fighting Sunni rebels in Syria while its legitimacy rested on its role in fighting Israel.
Hezbollah’s reputation is suffering further, according to Shaul Shay, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council, because of the increasing spillover from the Syrian conflict onto Lebanese soil in the form of a wave of deadly bomb attacks.
Syria is Hezbollah’s “Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq,” said Yoram Schweitzer, an expert at the Institute for National Security Studies. Though Hezbollah is acquiring battle experience, Mr. Schweitzer said, “in my view, the price it is paying is greater than the gain.”
In under 5 seconds, that must be a new record.
But in all seriousness at least I critisize when my country does something wrong, you guys are all government mouthpieces.
