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Is Turkey facing its last democratic election?

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At a square in central Istanbul, women are dancing and clapping along to loud music, wearing T-shirts bearing the logo of the political party they want to win the general election on 7 June. Standing nearby, another party's supporters wait for their turn.

It feels like a street festival of democracy, though rather poorly decorated - with different party flags hanging across trees and lamp-posts.

But there is an underlying tension. There have been attacks on party buildings, buses and even candidates.

The stakes in this election are high.

Critics of the current government say this could be the last democratic election before Turkey becomes an autocracy.

Supporters say the country's stability is at risk.

For the past 13 years, the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) has held power.

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It has won seven consecutive elections and two referendums, and looks very likely to emerge as the biggest party in the upcoming election.

Last year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led the party since 2003, was elected the country's president, with more than 52% of the vote.

'Authoritarian tendencies'
On paper, this election is not about Mr Erdogan - constitutionally the president has to be impartial and above politics.

But in reality, he has featured on every level during the campaign - an issue the opposition has taken to court, with no result
.

Mr Erdogan wants to change Turkey's constitution, diminish the role of the parliamentary system and introduce an executive presidency instead.

Critics say this has the potential to increase "Mr Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies".

How will the HDP perform?
Whether or not a presidential system can be introduced will depend on how many seats the AKP manages to win in this election.

If the party wins more than two-thirds of the seats in the parliament, it will be able to rewrite the constitution and change the system without the need to put it to a referendum. To push for constitutional changes through a referendum, they will need 60% of the seats.

This is quite unlikely if the pro-Kurdish, leftist People's Democratic Party (HDP) wins seats.

Under Turkey's electoral system, a party has to poll more than 10% of the overall vote to make it into the parliament.

Polls suggest the HDP might just top 10% to take up the more than 50 seats they are predicted to win. If they do, the 13 years of single-handed rule of the governing AKP may come to an end, forcing the party to form a coalition government.

It is this possibility that makes this the most important election in Turkey since 2002.

If the HDP does not make it into parliament though, its votes will be redistributed among other parties, and the AKP will be the primary beneficiary. This will pave the way for the kind of majority the AKP desires to change the constitution.

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Economy concerns
Under AKP rule, Turkey's economy had a good run for more than a decade:
  • growth rates soared to about 10%
  • gross domestic product (GDP) increased
  • the construction sector boomed
  • inflation was controlled
And Turkey was recently ranked as the 17th biggest economy in the world.

But now:
  • growth has now slowed to 3-4%
  • unemployment levels remain high
  • the country's rising budget deficit is a serious concern
  • the lira has lost one-fifth of its value against the dollar in the past 12 months
Corruption allegations involving government ministers and the lavishness of the multimillion-dollar 1,000-room presidential palace featured in opposition rallies.

A debate on whether or not there were golden toilet seats in the palace made international headlines.

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'Insulting the president'
Freedom of speech remains one of the most sensitive issues.

In March, social media sites, including Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, were briefly banned after critical posts.

Since Mr Erdogan was elected president, more than 100 people have been sued for "insulting the head of state".

This week, when opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet published videos allegedly showing Turkish intelligence lorries carrying weapons to opposition groups in Syria, President Erdogan accused the paper and its editor-in-chief of espionage and took legal action.

In Freedom House's latest "freedom of the press" report, Turkey's status declined from "partly free" to "not free".

In the 2015 World Press Freedom Index, Turkey ranks 149th out of 180 countries.


Isolation fears
Mr Erdogan and the governing party have been credited with initiating the negotiations for a peace with the country's almost 15 million Kurds, which was seen as a major breakthrough.

The long-lasting war between the Turkish forces and Kurdish guerrilla group the PKK cost an estimated 40,000 lives in three decades.

For the past two years, a ceasefire has been in place.

However, the negotiations between the Turkish Intelligence Organization (MIT) and the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, seem to have been stalled.

Mr Erdogan hardened his rhetoric by saying there was not a "Kurdish problem", which alienated his pious Kurdish supporters.

On an international level, many fear Turkey risks becoming isolated.

It now has no ambassadors in Syria, Egypt, Libya or Israel, while membership negotiations with the European Union are almost at a standstill.


The advance of the group calling themselves Islamic State across the border in Syria and Iraq is seen as an increasing threat.

On the streets of Diyarbakır, in south-east Turkey, Kurds are already jubilant - as if the party they predominantly support, the HDP, has already made its breakthrough.

A sense of newly found self-confidence and self-expression is evident.

But that joy could turn to anger if the HDP falls short of 10%.

This is Turkey's least predictable election in more than a decade.

Supporters and opponents of the government are holding their breath.


Turkey election: The least predictable for over a decade - BBC News
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I just hope so much that Erdogan's gang loses.
 
It now has no ambassadors in Syria, Egypt, Libya or Israel
Lol you literally listed the worst countries when it comes to Human rights violations.

Saudi Arabia also have no relations with 3 of the 4 listed countries and regimes.
 
Overblown. Even though I dislike Erdogan and many of his policies, Turkey isn't about to become 'one of those' countries. I hope EU ties remain strong, and EU influence, particularly legal and cultural, remain strong in Turkey. That's really what has set Turkey apart from the other muslim nations historically, for the better.
 
Very very poorly written article....

AKP won't get enough enough to votes to change the constitution. It needs %60 of the votes to do that....where as recent polls shows that they are scoring %41...which they can't establish the government on their own and need coalition...

There is also a chance that a coalition by MHP and CHP can replace the AKP rule....
 
Very very poorly written article....

AKP won't get enough enough to votes to change the constitution. It needs %60 of the votes to do that....where as recent polls shows that they are scoring %41...which they can't establish the government on their own and need coalition...

There is also a chance that a coalition by MHP and CHP can replace the AKP rule....

What's the June 7 election all about? Parliamentary elections? And if AKP loses, then what happens?
 
Lol you literally listed the worst countries when it comes to Human rights violations.

Saudi Arabia also have no relations with 3 of the 4 listed countries and regimes.

Also, has no ambassador in Austria and iirc Sweden. On the account of the Armenian thing that was proclaimed recently.
 
What's the June 7 election all about? Parliamentary elections? And if AKP loses, then what happens?
Yeap, Parliamentary elections

Anyways latest poll was like this (though polls varies)

AKP %41
CHP %27,8
MHP %14,8
HDP %12.6
2015 Türkiye genel seçim anketleri - Vikipedi

Which AKP gets 236 seats while they need 276 seats to establish the government....

Even without HDP entering the parliament AKP gets 271 seats....CHP-MHP coalition would be sufficient for the government.....

So changing the constitution for presidency is a distant dream. (367 seats needed)

And if AKP loses, then what happens?
Can you be more specific ?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Can you be more specific ?

I mean if they lose, Davotuglu would leave office? What'll happen to Erdogan powers? Who is the commander in chief of Turkish army? PM or president?

It's all weird. When he was PM, all we heard was Erdogan and nothing from Gul, now that he is president, again all we hear is Erdogan and nothing from Davotoglu as PM. Don't know which role is more important now, PM or president.
 
I mean if they lose, Davotuglu would leave office? What'll happen to Erdogan powers? Who is the commander in chief of Turkish army? PM or president?

It's all weird. When he was PM, all we heard was Erdogan and nothing from Gul, now that he is president, again all we hear is Erdogan and nothing from Davotoglu as PM. Don't know which role is more important now, PM or president.

That's because of the changes in the presidential system. The president of Turkey used to be more symbolic, akin to Germany. Now, the AKP wants to make it into a US/France like system. The position itself is becoming vastly more powerful. But hey, we'll see what happens. I hope it works for the good of the Turkish people and country.
 
I mean if they lose, Davotuglu would leave office? What'll happen to Erdogan powers? Who is the commander in chief of Turkish army? PM or president?

It's all weird. When he was PM, all we heard was Erdogan and nothing from Gul, now that he is president, again all we hear is Erdogan and nothing from Davotoglu as PM. Don't know which role is more important now, PM or president.

Well, president has very insignificant powers. Government can always sideline him.

The thing is Erdoğan is so powerful. Even though he has don't have powers as a President. No AKP member can act against his orders....

position itself is becoming vastly more powerful.
No, it doesn't actually. It seems like that because PM is the puppet of Erdoğan......Remember Medyedev-Putin....similar example.
 
Well, president has very insignificant powers. Government can always sideline him.

The thing is Erdoğan is so powerful. Even though he has don't have powers as a President. No AKP member can act against his orders....

So, If a coalition of MHP and CHP wins, it will mean a significant power loss for Erdogan, if I got that right. But I doubt so, he still has significant support, and he will win again.
 
Very very poorly written article....

AKP won't get enough enough to votes to change the constitution. It needs %60 of the votes to do that....where as recent polls shows that they are scoring %41...which they can't establish the government on their own and need coalition...

There is also a chance that a coalition by MHP and CHP can replace the AKP rule....

A poorly written article, and then you go on to site why it's poor by explaining exactly what the article explains :lol:
 
Mr Erdogan and the governing party have been credited with initiating the negotiations for a peace with the country's almost 15 million Kurds, which was seen as a major breakthrough.

Classic BBC BS...As if we are at war with our 15 million Kurdish citizens..what a rubbish article
 
So, If a coalition of MHP and CHP wins, it will mean a significant power loss for Erdogan, if I got that right. But I doubt so, he still has significant support, and he will win again.

Till this date, in every elections we were saying "AKP is going to win hands down"....but this one is "We don't know the outcome."

A poorly written article, and then you go on to site why it's poor by explaining exactly what the article explains :lol:
Yeap, BS article.

Is Turkey facing its last democratic election?
 
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