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Is Turkey facing its last democratic election?

Too much BS to respond to.
There is a clear line between an honest objective assessment and a blatant hostile approach aimed at creating fear and panic. The title alone clearly indicates that this article belongs to the latter category.
Despite the flaws of the govt, seems like some foreigners are very eager to see Turkey go down in chaos as well.
A thumb of rule I got accustomed to is, whenever hostilities towards Turkey (regardless of the ruling party) rise, it's most probably due Turkey's success.

Who is going to win the election then?
AKP will most probably win, as it did in the last 12 years, but I don't think they can get the majority of the votes, which they are eyeing.
 
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I stand corrected
 
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Very very poorly written article....

AKP won't get enough enough to votes to change the constitution. It needs %60 of the votes to do that....where as recent polls shows that they are scoring %41...which they can't establish the government on their own and need coalition...

There is also a chance that a coalition by MHP and CHP can replace the AKP rule....
Never rely on polls..

I hope the CHP wins a majority but the choice is for the Turkish people.
 
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AKP will most probably win, as it did in the last 12 years, but I don't think they can get the majority of the votes, which they are eyeing


dude if the AKP win consecutive 4th times, wont it piss off opposition? and what did u mean by majority? simple Majority to form govt or majority to change constitution to presidential system? are u predicting that AKP Will not win simple majority this time ?
 
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dude if the AKP win consecutive 4th times, wont it piss off opposition? and what did u mean by majority? simple Majority to form govt or majority to change constitution to presidential system? are u predicting that AKP Will not win simple majority this time ?
Of course it will piss off the opposition. But hey, the number of votes the opposition gets is what they apparently deserve by the people. Chp and mhp are the biggest opposition parties, yet they have been losing all elections since the last 12 years. Instead of putting the blame in akp's shoes, they themselves should reform and come with better long-term ideas and vision, which they clearly lack now, otherwise they can expect akp winning over and over again. Above all, once the opposition loses, their leaders should resign and give others a chance. Mhp's leader hasn't resigned despite the losses in the last 12 year, neither did chp's after losing a few. akp is not faultless, but this behavior and lack of quality among the opposition is what actually pisses off the people. You can bet on it that a good portion of the akp voters are actually only voting on the akp due to the lack of a reasonable viable alternative.

Majority to change the constitution to a presidential system.

Imo akp will win the elections without much stress, but getting the majority of the votes is going to be really tough.
 
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Of course it will piss off the opposition. But hey, the number of votes the opposition gets is what they apparently deserve by the people. Chp and mhp are the biggest opposition parties, yet they have been losing all elections since the last 12 years. Instead of putting the blame in akp's shoes, they themselves should reform and come with better long-term ideas and vision, which they clearly lack now, otherwise they can expect akp winning over and over again. Above all, once the opposition loses, their leaders should resign and give others a chance. Mhp's leader hasn't resigned despite the losses in the last 12 year, neither did chp's after losing a few. akp is not faultless, but this behavior and lack of quality among the opposition is what actually pisses off the people. You can bet on it that a good portion of the akp voters are actually only voting on the akp due to the lack of a reasonable viable alternative.

Majority to change the constitution to a presidential system.

Imo akp will win the elections without much stress, but getting the majority of the votes is going to be really tough.


do AKP, CHP and MHP have intra party elections? or u have democracy like Pakistan... where once a leader of party remain leader till he retire or die?
 
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Never rely on polls..

I hope the CHP wins a majority but the choice is for the Turkish people.

Why do you hope that CHP wins?

AKP has made Turkey the great republic it is today. CHP gave debts, bankrupts, and disaster to Turkey in her days. You want return of that?

Coalition governments are a DISASTER everywhere. Even EU nation Italy officially "banned" coalition governments because of their inefficiency.

Hopefully, AKP wins 300 to 330 seats, and a more comprehensive Presidential system is devised so that coalition politics doesn't make a come-back in Turkey.

do AKP, CHP and MHP have intra party elections? or u have democracy like Pakistan... where once a leader of party remain leader till he retire or die?

Not really.

CHP is Turkish equivalent of PPP.

AKP is more of a mesh of PML(N)-PTI

MHP is nationalist party like ANP etc, focusing on "Turkish ethnicity" rather than the Republic of Turkey.

You get the picture?
 
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At a square in central Istanbul, women are dancing and clapping along to loud music, wearing T-shirts bearing the logo of the political party they want to win the general election on 7 June. Standing nearby, another party's supporters wait for their turn.

It feels like a street festival of democracy, though rather poorly decorated - with different party flags hanging across trees and lamp-posts.

But there is an underlying tension. There have been attacks on party buildings, buses and even candidates.

The stakes in this election are high.

Critics of the current government say this could be the last democratic election before Turkey becomes an autocracy.

Supporters say the country's stability is at risk.

For the past 13 years, the Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP) has held power.

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It has won seven consecutive elections and two referendums, and looks very likely to emerge as the biggest party in the upcoming election.

Last year, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has led the party since 2003, was elected the country's president, with more than 52% of the vote.

'Authoritarian tendencies'
On paper, this election is not about Mr Erdogan - constitutionally the president has to be impartial and above politics.

But in reality, he has featured on every level during the campaign - an issue the opposition has taken to court, with no result
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Mr Erdogan wants to change Turkey's constitution, diminish the role of the parliamentary system and introduce an executive presidency instead.

Critics say this has the potential to increase "Mr Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies".

How will the HDP perform?
Whether or not a presidential system can be introduced will depend on how many seats the AKP manages to win in this election.

If the party wins more than two-thirds of the seats in the parliament, it will be able to rewrite the constitution and change the system without the need to put it to a referendum. To push for constitutional changes through a referendum, they will need 60% of the seats.

This is quite unlikely if the pro-Kurdish, leftist People's Democratic Party (HDP) wins seats.

Under Turkey's electoral system, a party has to poll more than 10% of the overall vote to make it into the parliament.

Polls suggest the HDP might just top 10% to take up the more than 50 seats they are predicted to win. If they do, the 13 years of single-handed rule of the governing AKP may come to an end, forcing the party to form a coalition government.

It is this possibility that makes this the most important election in Turkey since 2002.

If the HDP does not make it into parliament though, its votes will be redistributed among other parties, and the AKP will be the primary beneficiary. This will pave the way for the kind of majority the AKP desires to change the constitution.

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Economy concerns
Under AKP rule, Turkey's economy had a good run for more than a decade:
  • growth rates soared to about 10%
  • gross domestic product (GDP) increased
  • the construction sector boomed
  • inflation was controlled
And Turkey was recently ranked as the 17th biggest economy in the world.

But now:
  • growth has now slowed to 3-4%
  • unemployment levels remain high
  • the country's rising budget deficit is a serious concern
  • the lira has lost one-fifth of its value against the dollar in the past 12 months
Corruption allegations involving government ministers and the lavishness of the multimillion-dollar 1,000-room presidential palace featured in opposition rallies.

A debate on whether or not there were golden toilet seats in the palace made international headlines.

_83436986_workmen.jpg


'Insulting the president'
Freedom of speech remains one of the most sensitive issues.

In March, social media sites, including Twitter, Facebook and YouTube, were briefly banned after critical posts.

Since Mr Erdogan was elected president, more than 100 people have been sued for "insulting the head of state".

This week, when opposition newspaper Cumhuriyet published videos allegedly showing Turkish intelligence lorries carrying weapons to opposition groups in Syria, President Erdogan accused the paper and its editor-in-chief of espionage and took legal action.

In Freedom House's latest "freedom of the press" report, Turkey's status declined from "partly free" to "not free".

In the 2015 World Press Freedom Index, Turkey ranks 149th out of 180 countries.


Isolation fears
Mr Erdogan and the governing party have been credited with initiating the negotiations for a peace with the country's almost 15 million Kurds, which was seen as a major breakthrough.

The long-lasting war between the Turkish forces and Kurdish guerrilla group the PKK cost an estimated 40,000 lives in three decades.

For the past two years, a ceasefire has been in place.

However, the negotiations between the Turkish Intelligence Organization (MIT) and the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, seem to have been stalled.

Mr Erdogan hardened his rhetoric by saying there was not a "Kurdish problem", which alienated his pious Kurdish supporters.

On an international level, many fear Turkey risks becoming isolated.

It now has no ambassadors in Syria, Egypt, Libya or Israel, while membership negotiations with the European Union are almost at a standstill.


The advance of the group calling themselves Islamic State across the border in Syria and Iraq is seen as an increasing threat.

On the streets of Diyarbakır, in south-east Turkey, Kurds are already jubilant - as if the party they predominantly support, the HDP, has already made its breakthrough.

A sense of newly found self-confidence and self-expression is evident.

But that joy could turn to anger if the HDP falls short of 10%.

This is Turkey's least predictable election in more than a decade.

Supporters and opponents of the government are holding their breath.


Turkey election: The least predictable for over a decade - BBC News
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I just hope so much that Erdogan's gang loses.
Turkey has no chance of military rule if Army tried it would end up in disaster only chance of Erodgan getting few seats is if Kurdish party manage to gets 10 % seats
 
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Freedom in the World - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Freedom House gives Turkey a score of 7, with 14 being the worst. Many flaws no doubt but by far the best in the region.
true
when you go in Turkey you are in a tolerant country (even if Erdogan doesn't help)
compared to many other countries around, it is quite a good country
for exemple for shiites there is no persecution and hatred
not like in Gulf countries
i would have preferred Turkey to be a model of non islamic country (no islamist allowed)
maybe Egypt could become the new model .. bu they face lot of problems to solve and difficulties persistant in the economy very sadly (especially considering Egypt for me is the only country which could be a leader)
 
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Not really.

CHP is Turkish equivalent of PPP.

AKP is more of a mesh of PML(N)-PTI

MHP is nationalist party like ANP etc, focusing on "Turkish ethnicity" rather than the Republic of Turkey.

You get the picture?


yes i got bro..
 
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Why do you hope that CHP wins?

AKP has made Turkey the great republic it is today. CHP gave debts, bankrupts, and disaster to Turkey in her days. You want return of that?

Coalition governments are a DISASTER everywhere. Even EU nation Italy officially "banned" coalition governments because of their inefficiency.

Hopefully, AKP wins 300 to 330 seats, and a more comprehensive Presidential system is devised so that coalition politics doesn't make a come-back in Turkey.



Not really.

CHP is Turkish equivalent of PPP.

AKP is more of a mesh of PML(N)-PTI

MHP is nationalist party like ANP etc, focusing on "Turkish ethnicity" rather than the Republic of Turkey.

You get the picture?
I believe at this point the AKP has done all the good that they can do and will only do harm from now on, especially with regards to foreign policy. When Turkey was ruled by a secular government and did not meddle in Arab affairs it was better for Turkish interests but nowadays that Erdogan continues to support the Muslim brotherhood he has made his country disliked by many in the region (except for so called Islamist circles). The CHP winning means a return to sensible foreign policy that factors in Turkey's long term interests rather than petty Islamist aspirations of authoritarian Erdogan. But again, this is up-to to Turks and these are just my opinions.

true
when you go in Turkey you are in a tolerant country (even if Erdogan doesn't help)
compared to many other countries around, it is quite a good country
for exemple for shiites there is no persecution and hatred
not like in Gulf countries
i would have preferred Turkey to be a model of non islamic country (no islamist allowed)
maybe Egypt could become the new model .. bu they face lot of problems to solve and difficulties persistant in the economy very sadly (especially considering Egypt for me is the only country which could be a leader)
For now.. All of those things you listed Erdogan is actively working upend and ruin what the Republic of Turkey once was by trying to make it into an Ottoman Empire.
 
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I hope and wish Erdogan and AKP will rule Turkey for few more year if not decade and about the change in constitution i think it doesn't matter whither its a presidential or parliamentary democracy but a good leaders are ruling the country and bringing progress in the country .
 
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I hope and wish Erdogan and AKP will rule Turkey for few more year if not decade and about the change in constitution i think it doesn't matter whither its a presidential or parliamentary democracy but a good leaders are ruling the country and bringing progress in the country .
At least you dont support Presidential system only because our sultan wants it and know that only a good leader is needed.

Btw: a map showing the govermental systems around the world, guess how many developed countries have presidential system.

863px-Forms_of_government.svg.png
 
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