Armageddon to pounce on South Asia?
M. Shahidul Islam
The long held apprehensions of the subdued few are proving prophetic as one of the 'Great Games' of this century has already begun to enter its final phase in South Asia where about three-fourths of a billion people subsists on a US$1 per day, or less.
The prospect of an impending war between India and Pakistan is looming ever larger and the loyalty of Bangladesh in particular - and China in general - is being torn apart by competing regional and global interests of powers vying desperately for a quick victory in the ongoing global war on terror that the sole superpower, USA, had initiated in 2001 but failed to win.
Recent visit to Dhaka of Senators John McCain and Joe Liberman` was aimed at coaxing our political and military leaders to prepare for such a prospect as a whole new chapter of regional geopolitics is being re-written under the US-India strategic collaborations in which the newly elected US President, Barack Obama, is about to be unwillingly sucked into.
That is the legacy, George-Bush vintage, but the catalyst for a seemingly unavoidable Armageddon in South Asia is the latest terror attacks in Mumbai which has stoked enormous passion for a broader regional and global confrontation that could end up with mushrooming clouds and nuclear dusts whirling across the region.
Many passionate observers think that the machinations that have brought the region to such a pass are worth a James Bond thriller. We, however, are deeply saddened by what happened in Mumbai, despite there being many unanswered questions begging reasonable answers from responsible quarters.
First of all, not acting on actionable intelligence is a failure that remains unforgivable and is indicative of possessing conspiratorial intents. The US intelligence officials claim they had warned India of a possible terror attack from the sea, on target like the Taj hotel. Few intelligence tips in human history are more specific than that.
Secondly, a number of journalists who often attended news briefing in those luxurious Mumbai hotels say the security there was so tight that visitors at times had to open their shoes while their cell phones were taken away and the bags and wallets were searched with minute precision. The hotels were also ringed with many metal detectors and close circuit cameras. That shows the standard of existing security was high and the tip off from the US intelligence should have turned that security index into a hyper sensitive red alert of some sort.
Yet, 10 gunmen managed to enter those hotels with automatic weapons, grenades, booby traps and high explosives to conduct one of the most detestable carnages. This is unbelievable.
Yet, believe we must; failing in which one could be branded either as a cynic at the best, or a terror sympathizer at the worst. One must also read between the lines of what exactly the US intelligence is saying now and what reasonable explanation could plausibly be provided with respect to why so many innocent lives had to be sacrificed in what now seems a preventable carnage?
US media reports claim India received warnings in October from their intelligence sources of a possible terrorist attack "from the sea" on targets in Mumbai. Some unnamed US intelligence officials told ABC television that they had warned their Indian counterparts in mid-October of a potential attack "from the sea against hotels and business centres in Mumbai". One intelligence official even mentioned specific targets, including the Taj Mahal hotel.
Based on those reports and the testimony of one Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone gunman reportedly captured by Mumbai police, India has linked the planning and execution of the Mumbai attacks to Pakistan- based Lashkar- E- Taiba (LET) and its operational commander known by three different names: Muzammil, Yusuf and Abu Hurerra. The LET was banned by Pakistan government in 2002. Thus was painted the perfect pretext to grill Pakistan.
Latest reports indicate India is planning a retaliatory air strike against the sprawling LET headquarters in Punjab unless Islamabad hands over 20 of India's most wanted fugitives, including LET leaders Hafeez Sayeed, Maulana Masood Azhar, chief of Jaish-e-Mohammad, and Dawood Ibrahim, Mumbai's chief underworld chieftain who had allegedly masterminded an attack on the city in 1993 that killed 250. India's ambassador to Islamabad, Satyabrata Pal, handed over the list on December 2 to senior Pakistani diplomats.
As expected, Pakistan reacted to the Indian demand in the most strident manner. On December 3, President Asif Ali Zardari rejected the Indian demand and refused to hand over the alleged accused.
"If we had proof, we would try them in our courts. We would try them in our land and we would sentence them," Zardari said in a television interview. Zardari also doubted India's claim that the sole surviving gunman, who was captured by Indian security forces, was a Pakistani national. "We have not been given any tangible proof to say that he is definitely a Pakistani. I very much doubt that he's a Pakistani."
As well, Zardari denied Pakistan's involvement in the attacks, saying the terror strikes were executed by "stateless actors" who wanted to hold the entire world hostage.
Following this, New Delhi's outrage was voiced by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee who said his country has every right to protect its territorial integrity and will take "appropriate action" as it feels necessary to deal with the terror strikes emanating from Pakistan, including launching military action against terror camps inside Pakistan.
Meanwhile, India's military chiefs were exerting strong pressure on the country's political leaders to give permission to attack the LET headquarters, sooner, and, added to the US intelligence tip off was more implicating input from Indian intelligence officials - whose miserable failure to prevent the carnage has already resulted in the resignations of the country's federal home minister and the national security adviser- who now claim that they'd had intercepted calls made from a satellite telephone to Muridke near Lahore (LET headquarters) before the attackers disembarked from the "mother ship" that brought them from Karachi to the Mumbai coast.
Meanwhile, military experts in India say an attack inside Pakistan is justified because the US has been conducting similar attacks inside Pakistan for a long time. That shows, in the final analysis, the conflict this time may be a US match played by India.
While that may seem fair in a time of global madness, experts however believe that, should India decide to launch a US-styled attack inside Pakistan, it will hardly be pre-emptive, given that much of the damage to Indian image as a security hazard nation has already been done. Besides, an Indian strike inside Pakistan will result in Pakistan military's re-deployment from the frontline along the Afghan- Pakistan border to the Pak-India border in the East. This will put into jeopardy the ongoing US war against al-Qaeda and Taliban who too might swoop on India as Pakistan's military ally.
And, in case of further continuation of military operations by India, a nuclear showdown is expected in the region due to Pakistan's established military doctrine to go for a first strike before the predominant conventional forces of India enter deep into Pakistani territory, or, cause massive damage from air, land or sea-launched attacks. An outbreak of war, or even further escalation, will also bury the peace talks that the two nations have diligently pursued since 2004. All these will also turn the region into a hotbed of military conflicts, superseding perhaps the Mid-East.
Worst still is the prospect of Kashmir turning into the focal point once again, much to Delhi's chagrin, in case a full-blown fourth Indo-Pak war breaks out.
The Kashmir dispute involves huge area of 222,000 square kilometers, divided as a result of the Indo-Pak and Indo-China wars and vied by all three powers for its strategic value. That makes the prospect of China being sucked into the fray even greater. That is why this Great Game is too fatal for the region, and, whosoever may be behind these fatal escalations, the end game will be decided by dispensing justice and ameliorating genuine grievances.
Like the ongoing Arab Israeli conflicts in which fighting consecutive wars did not ensure victory to Israel due to the Palestinian issue not being resolved first, the next Indo-Pak war too will leave India with little gain unless the Kashmir cauldron is defused permanently. That is the rule of the game and no military power can change that rule.
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