Is India not Taiwan next in line for a Chinese liberation

[Khan vilatey]

A lot of Indians and western media outlets keep saying that when Russia occupies Ukraine a brutal insurgency will follow but Russia will get its buffer zone with NATO. Even though Russia my prevail, I stand with Ukraine for I believe that an illegal occupation has been started by Russia. It is never ok for a strong country to occupy a weaker people like India does with innocent Kashmiris



The west and the Indians believe that after Ukraine China would take on Taiwan. I disagree and my reasons are based on why I believe Russia invaded Ukraine

1. there is no formal defense alliance between Ukraine and NATO vis a vis the US. This means that Russia will not face any direct military intervention for its actions
2. The Ukrainian are significantly weaker than Russia, economically and militarily hence there would be brave and nationalistic defense like we see on TV but in the end the Russian numerical and material superiority will prevail. We see this today with Russian taking their time in encircling KIYV. It took NATO with 350k ground troops and 1000+ aircraft 19 days from March 20 to April 9 to occupy Baghdad. It took Russia 1 day to take over bases and effectively encircle kIYV by day 5 they have a massive armored presence in all direction of KIYi and have soldiers inside the second largest city Kharkiv. This is partially due to the Russian capability in terms of a ground war rather than a longer range amphibious assault.
3. The lack of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine
4. The Russians feel it’s an existential threat for them if NATO deploys in Ukraine as every invasion of Russia in the last 400 years has come vis Ukraine, the French, the UK and Germany for crimea and more recently the Germans in WW2

With this in mind the question comes up why China would invade Taiwan or India

1. American has laws on the books that say that they would defend Taiwan. There are no such laws on the books for India
2. China feels that it’s trade routes and access to warm waters is threatened by India in Kashmir hence the threat from India is existential. No such threat is perceived by Taiwan
3. China enjoys a significantly larger military advantage over India due to its land border. It also has a massive military ally in Pakistan which would engage and neutralize a significant portion of Indians army, Air Force and navy. It would be an easy way to show off its superpower capability against India. With Taiwan the assault will need to be amphibious which is not China’s strength yet and other Asian Allies like Japan and South Korea will hinder China’s ability to dominate till they build 6-10 ford class carrier groups
4. India does not have tactical nukes. Would India be willing to go to a full nuclear exchange with China and Pakistan over territory in the north which it does not really care about? Kashmir too is a major drain why try to keep it if Delhi , Gujarat, Punjab, bihar snd UP are at threat?
5. A lot of land india occupies today is considered part of China and Pakistan.

What do you think I am looking for discussion not chest thumping

K

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

A lot of Indians and western media outlets keep saying that when Russia occupies Ukraine a brutal insurgency will follow but Russia will get its buffer zone with NATO. Even though Russia my prevail, I stand with Ukraine for I believe that an illegal occupation has been started by Russia. It is never ok for a strong country to occupy a weaker people like India does with innocent Kashmiris



The west and the Indians believe that after Ukraine China would take on Taiwan. I disagree and my reasons are based on why I believe Russia invaded Ukraine

1. there is no formal defense alliance between Ukraine and NATO vis a vis the US. This means that Russia will not face any direct military intervention for its actions
2. The Ukrainian are significantly weaker than Russia, economically and militarily hence there would be brave and nationalistic defense like we see on TV but in the end the Russian numerical and material superiority will prevail. We see this today with Russian taking their time in encircling KIYV. It took NATO with 350k ground troops and 1000+ aircraft 19 days from March 20 to April 9 to occupy Baghdad. It took Russia 1 day to take over bases and effectively encircle kIYV by day 5 they have a massive armored presence in all direction of KIYi and have soldiers inside the second largest city Kharkiv. This is partially due to the Russian capability in terms of a ground war rather than a longer range amphibious assault.
3. The lack of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine
4. The Russians feel it’s an existential threat for them if NATO deploys in Ukraine as every invasion of Russia in the last 400 years has come vis Ukraine, the French, the UK and Germany for crimea and more recently the Germans in WW2

With this in mind the question comes up why China would invade Taiwan or India

1. American has laws on the books that say that they would defend Taiwan. There are no such laws on the books for India
2. China feels that it’s trade routes and access to warm waters is threatened by India in Kashmir hence the threat from India is existential. No such threat is perceived by Taiwan
3. China enjoys a significantly larger military advantage over India due to its land border. It also has a massive military ally in Pakistan which would engage and neutralize a significant portion of Indians army, Air Force and navy. It would be an easy way to show off its superpower capability against India. With Taiwan the assault will need to be amphibious which is not China’s strength yet and other Asian Allies like Japan and South Korea will hinder China’s ability to dominate till they build 6-10 ford class carrier groups
4. India does not have tactical nukes. Would India be willing to go to a full nuclear exchange with China and Pakistan over territory in the north which it does not really care about? Kashmir too is a major drain why try to keep it if Delhi , Gujarat, Punjab, bihar snd UP are at threat?
5. A lot of land india occupies today is considered part of China and Pakistan.

What do you think I am looking for discussion not chest thumping

K

China will focus on Taiwan while India will be left to Pakistan.

 

[Khan vilatey]

China will focus on Taiwan while India will be left to Pakistan.

Why do you feel so, Chinese trade route via water ways are at threat specially their fuel supplies

 

[peagle]

These days, too many people are obsessing over wars and invasions.

Take a warm bath, and calm down.

 

[Khan vilatey]

These days, too many people are obsessing over wars and invasions.

Take a warm bath, and calm down.

Warm bath why warm????
K

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

Why do you feel so, Chinese trade route via water ways are at threat specially their fuel supplies

Blocking of Chinese oil trade is over blown. China gets her Oil and Gas from Russia, Kazakhstan and Iran all by land.

 

[A1Kaid]

These are interesting points. A bigger threat to China is not Taiwan but India due to Indian ocean factors. I would imagine if Chinese gov/military had to prioritize the most beneficial thing for them would be to attack India and redraw the border as they see it. China simply cannot have India challenging its power in Malacca straight, South China Sea, Tibet border region, and Indian ocean. Taiwan can easily be pacified by China at any time.

When opportunities like this come by countries prioritize and they often choose options that are more of a longstanding goal and vital to their political and economic interests.

Blocking of Chinese oil trade is over blown. China gets her Oil and Gas from Russia, Kazakhstan and Iran all by land.

Disagree, if that were the case the whole Gwadar project wouldn't be a priority for them. There are many Chinese oil tankers that cross the Indian ocean.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

These are interesting points. A bigger threat to China is not Taiwan but India due to Indian ocean factors. I would imagine if Chinese gov/military had to prioritize the most beneficial thing for them would be to attack India and redraw the border as they see it. China simply cannot have India challenging its power in Malacca straight, South China Sea, Tibet border region, and Indian ocean. Taiwan can easily be pacified by China at any time.

When opportunities like this come by countries prioritize and they often choose options that are more of a longstanding goal and vital to their political and economic interests.



Disagree, if that were the case the whole Gwadar project wouldn't be a priority for them. There are many Chinese oil tankers that cross the Indian ocean.

The main reason why China will go after India is not that it is important but India is easy pickings unlike Taiwan.

With Russia destroyed now, US and NATO can fully focus on Taiwan.

US and NATO do not mind China and Pakistan taking over India as long as Taiwan is protected.

 

[Bossman]

West is propping up India as a counterbalance to China. China will not allow this will do something to put India in it place and make it very expensive for India to take China.

 

[peagle]

Warm bath why warm????
K

It's usually a relaxing thing to do, chill out, relax and let the anger pass on by, that's the basic idea.
But, it's not mandatory, so do whatever provides relaxation and calm.

 

[proudindian20]

Lol you guys underestimate India way too much. India is no pushover. We have the strength, numbers and resources to fight a longer war than Ukraine and do considerable damage in a defensive role.

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

West is propping up India as a counterbalance to China. China will not allow this will do something to put India in it place and make it very expensive for India to take China.

China and Pakistan have groomed a lot of Indian groups from Kashmiris, Punjabis, Tamils, North East Indians, Dalits and Maoists in the Indian red corridor. Now even Indian Muslims seem to be joining the party thanks to Modi.

We do not need to wage an overt war. Our friendly groups in India would be enough to cripple India from inside.

 

[Khan vilatey]

Lol you guys underestimate India way too much. India is no pushover. We have the strength, numbers and resources to fight a longer war than Ukraine and do considerable damage in a defensive role.

Really than why has China liberated over 1000 sq kms

Why Have 800k troops in Kashmir

Why not stop Pakistan from Allegedly attacking your parliament and killing your troops with impunity

If you can’t handle Pakistan a military 1/2 your size , an population 1-10 your size and a county 1/4th your size how do you plan on stopping China which is 10 times bigger in all those metrics

K

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

Lol you guys underestimate India way too much. India is no pushover. We have the strength, numbers and resources to fight a longer war than Ukraine and do considerable damage in a defensive role.

Indians have loud mouths but barking dogs cannot bite.

 

[proudindian20]

Indians have loud mouths but barking dogs cannot bite.

We bit pretty hard in 1971. The guy lost a leg and an arm.