The West badly needs a land-based corridor to the Central Asia

[nahtanbob]

I posted a link to the article two posts up, but to summarize:

Central Asia holds 38.6% of global manganese ore reserves, 30.07% of chromium, 20% of lead, 12.6% of zinc, 8.7% of titanium, 5.8% of aluminum, 5.3% of copper, 5.3% of cobalt, and 5.2% of molybdenum.

There are lies, damn lies and there is statistics. The questions are the following

• how much reserves are there ?
• does the technology to extract them exist ?
• what is the cost of extraction ?

A good cautionary tale is here

Thar coalfield - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The 175 billion metric tons of coal will last for decades or even centuries. But someone forgot to ask the basic questions on technical and economic feasibility. Seriously if you can extract the coal in Thar who in Pakistan needs Central Asia ? The British who surveyed the subcontinent for minerals were not idiots. Unless it was something esoteric or technologically ahead of their times they did not miss much.

 

[FuturePAF]

There are lot of resources in Africa. No one is bidding against China in Africa either. The CAR elites are fine with the status quo. You describe it as being under the clutches of Russia and China. I doubt they will look at it that way

The Pakistan/Afghanistan transit option is great. Do not expect a penny to make it work. If interested the Pakistani elite & Taliban will have to sit at the table and figure out how to construct 2000 km highway on their own

Indeed it will have to be the Afghan and Pakistani elites that will have to put in the first billions to get it off the ground before others will put their money in. (The Talibs can probably employ their own people at bargain labor costs to physically cut through the terrain for rail routes).

There are lies, damn lies and there is statistics. The questions are the following

• how much reserves are there ?
• does the technology to extract them exist ?
• what is the cost of extraction ?

A good cautionary tale is here

Thar coalfield - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The 175 billion metric tons of coal will last for decades or even centuries. But someone forgot to ask the basic questions on technical and economic feasibility. Seriously if you can extract the coal in Thar who in Pakistan needs Central Asia ? The British who surveyed the subcontinent for minerals were not idiots. Unless it was something esoteric or technologically ahead of their times they did not miss much.

Central Asia is not South Asia. Access has been limited in Central Asia but perhaps an analysis has to be done to find out how much of the hinderances are technical, financial and political.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I never understood the value of the Central Asian Republics from an economic perspective - the total population of the Central Asian Republics is 76million only - and it is a GDP nominal of $446 billion only...

Central Asia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I guess the value would only be as a transport links for the neighbouring countries and more strategic from a military perspective only of the access it provides. The recent "re-interest" would be just to stick another finger in Russia's eye's at most.

Every country a land route crosses is just another headache palm that needs perpetual greasing due to the whim of the moment.

With the ocean it is just canals and crooked port authorities.

 

[nahtanbob]

Indeed it will have to be the Afghan and Pakistani elites that will have to put in the first billions to get it off the ground before others will put their money in. (The Talibs can probably employ their own people at bargain labor costs to physically cut through the terrain for rail routes).


Central Asia is not South Asia. Access has been limited in Central Asia but perhaps an analysis has to be done to find out how much of the hinderances are technical, financial and political.

Keep in mind if I am spending billions the better bang for the buck is investment in human capital of the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Just a thought here

 

[FuturePAF]

Keep in mind if I am spending billions the better bang for the buck is investment in human capital of the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Just a thought here

True, but to be a competitor in other industries some money (and political will) has to be spent on real connectivity projects such as the trans-afghan railway. The Turks on their side are working on the corridor to Central Asia through Azerbaijan and Armenia, which could be a competitor but also a more viable complement to the encirclement and sidelining of Iran and Russia (if they try to break trade across the Caspain).

 

[nahtanbob]

True, but to be a competitor in other industries some money (and political will) has to be spent on real connectivity projects such as the trans-afghan railway. The Turks on their side are working on the corridor to Central Asia through Azerbaijan and Armenia, which could be a competitor but also a more viable complement to the encirclement and sidelining of Iran and Russia (if they try to break trade across the Caspain).

There is nothing there in the 5 Central Asian Republics that make the whole endeavor a priority for the US government. I am sure people have done the calculations. As long as Kazakhstan gets market rates or near market rates for the petroleum from Russia/China it is a win for the West. Any petroleum China purchases from Kazakhstan is one less barrel China has to purchase on the world market.

Last but not the least there is a high probability of a detente with Iran in the intermediate term. With the decline in importance of hydrocarbons at some point Iran and USA will realize there is nothing to fight for.

I do not think even the Pakistani Army shares the same enthusiasm. If there is money to be made Pakistani elite is not the one to let it go.

 

[FuturePAF]

There is nothing there in the 5 Central Asian Republics that make the whole endeavor a priority for the US government. I am sure people have done the calculations. As long as Kazakhstan gets market rates or near market rates for the petroleum from Russia/China it is a win for the West. Any petroleum China purchases from Kazakhstan is one less barrel China has to purchase on the world market.

Last but not the least there is a high probability of a detente with Iran in the intermediate term. With the decline in importance of hydrocarbons at some point Iran and USA will realize there is nothing to fight for.

I do not think even the Pakistani Army shares the same enthusiasm. If there is money to be made Pakistani elite is not the one to let it go.

After what’s happening in Palestine, doubt there will be detente with Iran anytime soon.

As for Pakistani elites, they seem risk averse because to capitalizes on the potential, the state has to make a political deal with the afghans it isn’t prepared to make. Only new leadership after an election would have any hope make a deal; once internal political instability is addressed.

 

[nahtanbob]

After what’s happening in Palestine, doubt there will be detente with Iran anytime soon.

As for Pakistani elites, they seem risk averse because to capitalizes on the potential, the state has to make a political deal with the afghans it isn’t prepared to make. Only new leadership after an election would have any hope make a deal; once internal political instability is addressed.

Last but not the least there is a high probability of a detente with Iran in the intermediate term. The operative word is "intermediate"\\
Afghans are too poor to allow any valuable trade & commerce to happen