Is Asean Losing Its Way?

[prima99]

For ASEAN to regain its waning relevance, it must stand up to China

For ASEAN to regain its waning relevance, it must stand up to China
A fragmented ASEAN is shying from taking a position on China’s creeping expansionism in the South China Sea.
Amitav Acharya · Today · 03:30 pm

Photo Credit: Brendan Simialowski/Pool/AFP

The Association of Southeast Asia Nations has prided itself on its “ASEAN Way” – an informal and non-legalistic way of doing business, especially its culture of consultations and consensus that have resolved disputes peacefully. That way of doing business may be fading among signs the group’s unity is seriously eroding. Against the backdrop of the rise of an assertive China, signs of disunity spell trouble for the region.

There are several reasons for this disunity. First, ASEAN today is a much bigger entity. Membership expanded in the 1990s to include Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia, with East Timor likely to be the 11th member. ASEAN’s functions and issues have also expanded. Economic cooperation has expanded from the idea of a free trade agreement to a more comprehensive economic community, which technically enters into force this year. ASEAN cooperation extends to a range of transnational issues from intelligence-sharing, counterterrorism, and maritime security to environmental degradation, air pollution, pandemics, energy security, food security, migration and people-smuggling, drug-trafficking, human rights and disaster management.

With an expanded membership, agenda and area of concern, it’s only natural that ASEAN will face more internal disagreements. It’s thus not surprising that one of the most serious breakdowns of consensus have involved its new members. Cambodia, as ASEAN’s chair, disastrously refused to issue a joint ASEAN communique in 2012 to please China – its new backer and aid donor – rejecting the position of fellow members, Philippines and Vietnam, on the South China Sea dispute.

Increasing challenges

Compounding challenges is the uncertain leadership of Indonesia. There are signs that the Jokowi government has downgraded Indonesia’s leadership role in ASEAN especially as the de facto consensus-builder of ASEAN on both intra- and extra-ASEAN conflicts, including the South China Sea. Jokowi’s “less multilateralism, more national interest” foreign policy approach, in sharp contrast to his predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s active leadership of ASEAN, could change. If not, the danger is that if the democratic, economically dynamic and stable Indonesia does not take ASEAN seriously neither will the world at large.

Without doubt, ASEAN’s main security challenge is the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. While not a new problem, the disagreement has telescoped due to recent Chinese activities. The most recent example: China’s reclamation activities in the Fiery Reef claimed by Vietnam and Mischief Reef and surrounding areas also claimed by the Philippines. This reflects a shift in China’s approach. While the Chinese military has pressed for land reclamation for some time, the leadership of Hu Jintao had resisted such moves. That restraint ended under the leadership of Xi Jinping, who is more prone to seek the PLA’s counsel in foreign policy issues related to national security and who has advanced China’s assertiveness on economic, diplomatic and military fronts. China is developing the islands further for both area denial and sea-control purposes and as a staging post for blue-water deployments into the Indian Ocean.

These developments challenge ASEAN’s role and “centrality” in the Asian security architecture. The economic ties of individual ASEAN members lead them to adopt varying positions. Until now, ASEAN’s advantage was that there was no alternative convening power in the region. But mere positional “centrality” is meaningless without an active and concerted ASEAN leadership to tackle problems, especially the South China Sea dispute.

Episodes such as the failure to issue a joint ASEAN communique in 2012 have led to the perception that ASEAN unity is fraying and China is a major factor. According to this view, China is out to divide and conquer ASEAN even as it pays lip-service to ASEAN centrality. This perception results from China’s seeming willingness to use disagreements within ASEAN, especially the consensus-breaking stance of Cambodia, insisting that ASEAN stay out of the South China Sea conflict, as an excuse to resist an early conclusion of the South China Sea Code of Conduct. China also takes the unwillingness of some ASEAN members to use strong language to criticise China as a sign of disunity. China cites earlier differences within ASEAN regarding the scope of the code of conduct over the inclusion of the Paracels, as desired by Hanoi. Moreover, China views the code as crisis-prevention tool rather than a dispute-settlement mechanism.

China plays divide and rule

China needs to dispel perceptions that it is playing a divide-and-rule approach to ASEAN. It should also stop objecting to bringing the South China Sea question onto the agenda of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit, on the pretext that not all ASEAN members are party to the dispute and outside countries such as the United States have no business even discussing the issue. This has the effect of undermining the very idea of ASEAN centrality or relevance that Beijing purports to uphold. It’s hard to see what the rationale for having these meetings might be without discussion of one of the most serious challenges to regional security and well-being.

As for ASEAN, it must not remove itself from South China Sea issue. If anything, it should give even more focused attention to the disputes. One must not forget the lessons of the conflict triggered by the Vietnamese invasion and occupation of Cambodia from December 1978 to September 1989. Neither Vietnam nor Cambodia were members of ASEAN, and only Thailand was regarded as the “frontline state”. Then, ASEAN decided to involve itself in a conflict between two non-members because it considered the Vietnamese action a breach of regional norms and a threat to regional stability. Today, four of ASEAN members are parties to the conflict, out of which two are “frontline states”: Philippines and, ironically enough, Vietnam. The South China Sea conflict poses an even more serious threat to regional stability, and it is a legitimate concern of ASEAN as a group.

Finally, a word about the view put forward by some that ASEAN is irrelevant and should stay out of the South China conflict. The alternatives are few and bleak. US military action? It may have a deterrent value against the worst-case scenario of a full-blown Chinese invasion of the islands, but is unlikely to prevent the more likely scenario of China’s creeping expansion. Any US-China understanding is useful for crisis management, but ASEAN would have to worry whether in the long-term it would lead to US concessions to China – such as refraining from militarily and diplomatically challenging China’s position in the islands and surrounding areas. A decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which is considering a motion filed by the Philippines challenging the legality of China’s nine-dash line, may end up in Manila’s favour. This would help ASEAN, even if China rejects that verdict. But to make the most of such an opportunity, ASEAN would need to show collective support for such a verdict, and it might help if other claimants, such as Vietnam, also initiate similar legal action. China rejects a more direct role by the East Asia Summit, led by ASEAN anyway, because of US membership. The international community should render more support and encouragement to ASEAN to persist with its diplomacy in the conflict. And Indonesia needs to get back in this game.

 

[xudoai]

China plays divide and rule

Its clear. but PDF member don't know about this tactic of China.

 

[Aepsilons]

The rate at which China was going in the past few decades, balance of trade seems to be the first step towards leveraging in political arm twisting. Beijing may give in to some superficial economic concessions for long term political gains. Which is why - a stronger Indonesia or Malaysia which can withstand such tactics to forego short term gains for long term gains is the need for a balanced ASEAN. until then, its still China plus others.

Diplomacy is never easy and requires tact and skillful abilities on the diplomats in question. But I believe that a strongly united and unanimous foreign ministrial meetings among ASEAN can encourage compromise with their Chinese counterparts. China works through the bilateral framework so that requires unanimity among the ASEAN foreign ministers in addressing points with China. This can be done, but as I said before, requires strength of will and skillful deliberations.

 

[Aepsilons]

The rate at which China was going in the past few decades, balance of trade seems to be the first step towards leveraging in political arm twisting. Beijing may give in to some superficial economic concessions for long term political gains. Which is why - a stronger Indonesia or Malaysia which can withstand such tactics to forego short term gains for long term gains is the need for a balanced ASEAN. until then, its still China plus others.

Anyways, i think the OP's intent is to show pessimism in the ASEAN framework, in my view, that pessimism is legitimate since there are some issues that affects ASEAN including security issues , as well as economic policies. However, like any problem, as we are taught in Business Psychology and Industrial Engineering, will always have a unique solution. I like to believe that ASEAN will maintain solvency by continuing communication amongst its members -- and thus enable the world to see the dynamism of Southeast Asia; the people, the culture, and the shared prosperous future.

I end this by referencing an ancient dance of Indonesia, the Tarian Asyik, it shows the beauty of Southeast Asia. And illustrates WHY the ASEAN Framework will, indeed, not only succeed, but empower the world.

 

[Sliver]

Anyways, i think the OP's intent is to show pessimism in the ASEAN framework, in my view, that pessimism is legitimate since there are some issues that affects ASEAN including security issues , as well as economic policies. However, like any problem, as we are taught in Business Psychology and Industrial Engineering, will always have a unique solution. I like to believe that ASEAN will maintain solvency by continuing communication amongst its members -- and thus enable the world to see the dynamism of Southeast Asia; the people, the culture, and the shared prosperous future.

I end this by referencing an ancient dance of Indonesia, the Tarian Asyik, it shows the beauty of Southeast Asia. And illustrates WHY the ASEAN Framework will, indeed, not only succeed, but empower the world.

I would like to see ASEAN, EURO, maybe an arab block as well. The world could use multi polar forces and blocks to counter balance each other. And ASEAN may or may not invoke east asia, but east asia certainly has the mystique and the charm that people literally fall in love with. I only wish the ASEAN framework will continue to show diversified asian cultures and politics instead of just one country.

 

[Aepsilons]

I would like to see ASEAN, EURO, maybe an arab block as well. The world could use multi polar forces and blocks to counter balance each other. And ASEAN may or may not invoke east asia, but east asia certainly has the mystique and the charm that people literally fall in love with. I only wish the ASEAN framework will continue to show diversified asian cultures and politics instead of just one country.

Truth be told, I actually envy the actualization of ASEAN. In fact the chronology of Southeast Asian integration processes even goes back to SEATO, the now defunct political and security predecessor of ASEAN. So we see that the call for integration of Southeast Asia goes back over 5 decades. I envy the fact that despite their historical, social and political multichotomies, these countries are able to form a bloc.

It is unfortunate that East Asia has yet to form such a bloc, and i think is testament to failure in channels and diplomatic streamlining processes. In that aspect, ASEAN, truly, has much to teach the world. East Asia included, and most especially.

 

[mike2000 is back]

bro, I´m tired to say, but anyway I say here again: Asean is a economic club of equals, rotating chairmanship, decision made based on consensus of all members, if someone says otherwise, I suggest him or her to visit a doctor.

no, Indo is not the leader of Asean. it has no money, no power, neither economic nor military nor diplomacy. her new elected government advances a nationalistic driven policy, that pushes the country slowly into a disaster. that is not what we want in Vietnam and elsewhere.

Neutrality is nothing. the swiss is neutral. and?

Do you seriously think China would accept Indonesia as a broker for peace in the SC Sea mess? what a delusion! China repeatly states NON CLAIMANTS MUST STAY OUT, from America to Japan to India. Will Indonesia want to challenge China? I don´t think the chinese have humour.

and if nobody has noticed, we have a defacto leader already in place, that isn´t even a member of Asean: China.

in contrast to Indo, China has everything that needs to fullfill the job: economic clout, tons of money, diplomacy and military power. she can bribe Cambodia or other members every year to sabotage any unfriendly agenda. she makes huge investments in the region. chinese warships will soon outnumber sharks in the SC Sea. yes, there is a chance: China will be the only country, that would be accepted as leader of the club. by all members including Vietnam.

That is the reality. Has nothing to do of what you said "hostility towards Indonesia."

Well, you are right to some extent, but you completely missed the point i was trying to make. China might/will be Asian power,but we are talking about ASEAN. The two are linked but different.

For example if a conflict erupts in SCS between an ASEAN member and China, who best do you think can mediate/play a neutral negotiating role other than Indonesia?? There is no other country in the region who can do this without being being seen as biased by either China or the ASEAN country involved. Since as i said before there is almost no main Country in ASEAN who is neutral/non aligned like Indonesia. So Indonesia the only country who suits this role.
How can China play a leading role in ASEAN when it has very hostile relationship.disputes with ASEAN countries like Vietnam and Philippines?? Its like asking for a crime suspect to investigate/arbitrate his own crime. lol

As you know there is no main decision that can be taken in ASEAN without Indonesia. It is one of the main founders of ASEAN, so obviously its one of the most important member. In any grouping/organization there are ALWAYS leaders(some leaders would rather be passive, while others like being more proactive/at the forefront), so don't mind the sweet diplomatic talk/slogans like : We are all equals. lol Even in the E.U the main leaders are Germany, France, and Britain(though we like acting as an independent power from the E.U. lol). So others might not like it, but that's the simple truth.
Can Indonesia Lead ASEAN? | The Diplomat
Leadership in ASEAN : the role of Indonesia reconsidered - Opus
Why Indonesia should take a leading role in ASEAN | East Asia Forum

So i think that YES Indonesia ought to take a leading role in ASEAN , always better to have a leader(or leaders) than none. Since it gives an organization a well defined objective/direction and pulls along other smaller member countries who otherwise would not have been bold enough to make some decisions. Just look at the example of the E.U with Germany and France(and to some extent Britain) playing leading roles which made the E.U successful and helped bring other countries together for the greater good. Now imagine an E.U without France, Britain and German leadership.

 

[70U63]

Seriously, I'm not sure whether you are trolling or simply try to make someone happy with the following statement.
The so called bloc is for business, while not directly interference with other people bs.

Truth be told, I actually envy the actualization of ASEAN. In fact the chronology of Southeast Asian integration processes even goes back to SEATO, the now defunct political and security predecessor of ASEAN. So we see that the call for integration of Southeast Asia goes back over 5 decades. I envy the fact that despite their historical, social and political multichotomies, these countries are able to form a bloc.

It is unfortunate that East Asia has yet to form such a bloc, and i think is testament to failure in channels and diplomatic streamlining processes. In that aspect, ASEAN, truly, has much to teach the world. East Asia included, and most especially.

 

[Aepsilons]

Seriously, I'm not sure whether you are trolling or simply try to make someone happy with the following statement.
The so called bloc is for business, while not directly interference with other people bs.

Just sharing my honest personal opinion. Apologies if that struck a cord with you.

Well, you are right to some extent, but you completely missed the point i was trying to make. China might/will be Asian power,but we are talking about ASEAN. The two are linked but different.

For example if a conflict erupts in SCS between an ASEAN member and China, who best do you think can mediate/play a neutral negotiating role other than Indonesia?? There is no other country in the region who can do this without being being seen as biased by either China or the ASEAN country involved. Since as i said before there is almost no main Country in ASEAN who is neutral/non aligned like Indonesia. So Indonesia the only country who suits this role.
How can China play a leading role in ASEAN when it has very hostile relationship.disputes with ASEAN countries like Vietnam and Philippines?? Its like asking for a crime suspect to investigate/arbitrate his own crime. lol

As you know there is no main decision that can be taken in ASEAN without Indonesia. It is one of the main founders of ASEAN, so obviously its one of the most important member. In any grouping/organization there are ALWAYS leaders(some leaders would rather be passive, while others like being more proactive/at the forefront), so don't mind the sweet diplomatic talk/slogans like : We are all equals. lol Even in the E.U the main leaders are Germany, France, and Britain(though we like acting as an independent power from the E.U. lol). So others might not like it, but that's the simple truth.
Can Indonesia Lead ASEAN? | The Diplomat
Leadership in ASEAN : the role of Indonesia reconsidered - Opus
Why Indonesia should take a leading role in ASEAN | East Asia Forum

So i think that YES Indonesia ought to take a leading role in ASEAN , always better to have a leader(or leaders) than none. Since it gives an organization a well defined objective/direction and pulls along other smaller member countries who otherwise would not have been bold enough to make some decisions. Just look at the example of the E.U with Germany and France(and to some extent Britain) playing leading roles which made the E.U successful and helped bring other countries together for the greater good. Now imagine an E.U without France, Britain and German leadership.

Well we all, myself included, like to conjecture what if scenarios because it encourages strategic thinking. But in all honesty, I really doubt there will be a conflict in SCS. We all know most governments are using this paradigm as a conduit for structural and operational reform. I suppose a healthy exercise of diplomacy and military schema.

 

[Viet]

Well, you are right to some extent, but you completely missed the point i was trying to make. China might/will be Asian power,but we are talking about ASEAN. The two are linked but different.

For example if a conflict erupts in SCS between an ASEAN member and China, who best do you think can mediate/play a neutral negotiating role other than Indonesia?? There is no other country in the region who can do this without being being seen as biased by either China or the ASEAN country involved. Since as i said before there is almost no main Country in ASEAN who is neutral/non aligned like Indonesia. So Indonesia the only country who suits this role.
How can China play a leading role in ASEAN when it has very hostile relationship.disputes with ASEAN countries like Vietnam and Philippines?? Its like asking for a crime suspect to investigate/arbitrate his own crime. lol

As you know there is no main decision that can be taken in ASEAN without Indonesia. It is one of the main founders of ASEAN, so obviously its one of the most important member. In any grouping/organization there are ALWAYS leaders(some leaders would rather be passive, while others like being more proactive/at the forefront), so don't mind the sweet diplomatic talk/slogans like : We are all equals. lol Even in the E.U the main leaders are Germany, France, and Britain(though we like acting as an independent power from the E.U. lol). So others might not like it, but that's the simple truth.
Can Indonesia Lead ASEAN? | The Diplomat
Leadership in ASEAN : the role of Indonesia reconsidered - Opus
Why Indonesia should take a leading role in ASEAN | East Asia Forum

So i think that YES Indonesia ought to take a leading role in ASEAN , always better to have a leader(or leaders) than none. Since it gives an organization a well defined objective/direction and pulls along other smaller member countries who otherwise would not have been bold enough to make some decisions. Just look at the example of the E.U with Germany and France(and to some extent Britain) playing leading roles which made the E.U successful and helped bring other countries together for the greater good. Now imagine an E.U without France, Britain and German leadership.

bro, sorry, even if you repeat 100,000 times 'Indo is leader', I will flush your responses 100,000 times down the toilette.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Hahaha yea bro, I knew all along that beneath his shallow pro-VN mask, @Viet is actually a secret China boot licker. But you guys have managed to make him reveal his true color in this thread, I wasn’t able to do that. So well done!

I think @BoQ77 was the first guy to point this out. I then start noticing it too.




I bet he has never worked a single day in Vietnam to pay tax and contribute to the country. Yet, he goes on PDF and start talking like he is representative of VN, look in this thread, he always says we VN this, we that, etc. That is why I get annoyed with him, especially when his true motive is to boot lick China.

So its better to not take his words seriously. He is just an insecure guy who is not representative of the Vietnamese people in VN.

Well, to be honest i dont see why you are angry with your own vietnamese brother @AViet, i dont see what he has said that is so bad that you call him a china lover. Just because he said some hard facts that you dont like, that doesn't means he is a China bootlicker or whatever.

What he said was the truth, China indeed has everything(and more) to be a leader in ASEAN, So Aviet was right about that, but the point i disagreed with him/he missed was that China is not an ASEAN member, as such it cant lead ASEAN. So yes China and Japan may be the leading powers in Asia, but that doesnt means they lead ASEAN,since its a different block(though linked with Asia).

So i dont see why you call him all sorts of names because of the point he made, since everybody obviously knows that No ASEAN country is a match for China or even Japan,not even all of ASEAN combined. If anything i will say @AViet is the most credible/sensible Vietnamese member on here who makes rational comments/discussions and avoids being too biased unlike say @NiceGuy and @BOQ who are blindly anti chinese to the point that everybody already knows what they will say even before they say it. They are similar to the ultra nationalistic Chinese members here like @Beidou2020, @economicsuperpower etc lol

Aviet is a reasonable member, even though he also has his own biased against China , but not to the extent of others vietnamese members. lol

 

[William Hung]

Well, to be honest i dont see why you are angry with your own vietnamese brother @AViet, i dont see what he has said that is so bad that you call him a china lover. Just because he said some hard facts that you dont like, that doesn't means he is a China bootlicker or whatever.

What he said was the truth, China indeed has everything(and more) to be a leader in ASEAN, So Aviet was right about that, but the point i disagreed with him/he missed was that China is not an ASEAN member, as such it cant lead ASEAN. So yes China and Japan may be the leading powers in Asia, but that doesnt means they lead ASEAN,since its a different block(though linked with Asia).

So i dont see why you call him all sorts of names because of the point he made, since everybody obviously knows that No ASEAN country is a match for China or even Japan,not even all of ASEAN combined. If anything i will say @AViet is the most credible/sensible Vietnamese member on here who makes rational comments/discussions and avoids being too biased unlike say @NiceGuy and @BOQ who are blindly anti chinese to the point that everybody already knows what they will say even before they say it. They are similar to the ultra nationalistic Chinese members here like @Beidou2020, @economicsuperpower etc lol

Aviet is a reasonable member, even though he also has his own biased against China , but not to the extent of others vietnamese members. lol

Umm, do you know what I was talking about? What previous posts and conversations I was referring to?

And who is AViet? I dont remember mentioning or talking to anyone named “AViet” in this thread. I think you dont even remember the name of the member I was talking to, let alone his previous posts I was referring to.

 

[mike2000 is back]

Umm, do you know what I was talking about? What previous posts and conversations I was referring to?

And who is AViet? I dont remember mentioning or talking to anyone named “AViet” in this thread. I think you dont even remember the name of the member I was talking to, let alone his previous posts I was referring to.

sorry my bad, i meant @Viet.

 

[Viet]

sorry my bad, i meant @Viet.

bro, you should know the poster yoro or @Yorozuya or whatever his real name is a LIAR and a classical STALKER. you man read the exchange of words between me and him lately. his latest accusation: I dare using the word "we" in his eyes as if I can speak for VN and Vietnamese people. he does not mind that other viet poster use "we". of course not, nor does matter him that 99% of all posters here on PDF use "we". he himself can use "we", but it is a problem if I use the word. this guy is really brazen. and the most funny thing: he does show his idendity. no flags at all.

I don´t know who he is and where he comes. judging his low quality posts, and spewing bullshit about mon-khmer, I am willing to bet he is a low IQ Khmer idiot. either way, it does not concern me, but he must stop attacking me. otherwise I will appeal once again to the Mods.

 

[mike2000 is back]

bro, sorry, even if you repeat 100,000 times 'Indo is leader', I will flush your responses 100,000 times down the toilette.

Ahahahahaha........that was a funny one bro.
We can agree to disagree on this one then. I made my point you made yours, as long as there is no personal attacks and we all keep it civil and on point then that's OK..