Is Another Indo-Russian Defense Deal About to Falter?

[Levina]

The pd14m is a boosted model at 153kn so 2engines totally 306kn whereas
4 kaveri engines can give us 210kn + thrust and with 5 we can get 260kn +.. May be load factor may decrease by 15%- 20% but we may end up getting a 18-20tonne capabilities jet

may (MAY) be possible to mount 4 Kaveri on the MTA as opposed to 2 PD14M,

Right. That's what I had read that it's the Russian turbofan engines,PD-14m, which is going to power the aircraft, and that it is going to be 15% more efficient than its predecessor or something to that effect.
If all is not well between between India and Russia, then Russia has no reason to blame India. It is Russia's low technical culture along with outdated equipment, the Russian production facilities (which entirely fail to comply with technical regulations), are the reasons why India might have decided to back-off.
Discipline and process compliance has never been Russia's forte (as proven by the story of the submarine-based Bulava-Mace missile which has repeatedly refused to fly Lolz).
I don't want to belittle Russia, for they have been our all-weather friends. But let's face it, if Russia doesn't improve its habits then all the future Indian & Russian defence deals will be doomed.

Btw did anyone notice that Modi looked unusually uncomfortable when with Putin? He might have made impressive speech after the meeting but to me Modi's body language was unusually stiff, while Putin had the usual ice-maiden look. Oops!
Let me clear it I do respect this ex-KGB man.

Whatever happened to Subhash Chandra Bose's files ....

 

[Spectre]

Right. That's what I had read that it's the Russian turbofan engines,PD-14m, which is going to power the aircraft, and that it is going to be 15% more efficient than its predecessor or something to that effect.
If all is not well between between India and Russia, then Russia has no reason to blame India. It is Russia's low technical culture along with outdated equipment, the Russian production facilities (which entirely fail to comply with technical regulations), that are the reasons why India might have decided to back-off.
Discipline and process compliance has never been Russia's forte (as proven by the story of the submarine-based Bulava-Mace missile which has repeatedly refused to fly Lolz).
I don't want to belittle Russia, for they have been our all-weather friends. But let's face it, if Russia doesn't improve its habits then all the future Indian & Russian defence deals will be doomed.

Btw did anyone notice that Modi looked unusually uncomfortable when with Putin? He might have made impressive speech after the meeting but to me Modi's body language was unusually stiff, while Putin had the usual ice-maiden look. Oops!
Let me clear it I do respect this ex-KGB man.

Whatever happened to Subhash Chandra Bose's files ....

Putin deliberately cultivates that stone cold - KGB assasin spy - ice maiden - macho man look just like Lalu Yadav cultivates his rustic look, Clinton and Bush their folksy charm.

As for Russia - well the only thing I can say is that they know how to persevere. With the exception of Jews there have been no single grouping of people who have suffered as much as Russians and have bounced back time and again. Lesser countries would have lost their identity. I salute Russians for this.

As for Russian Hardware and their lack of reliability - there is a basic difference in design policy b/w Russia and West. Russians believed in short life, numerical superiority and maximum utility.

They knew they can never match the NATO buck for buck hence their entire policy was to overwhelm or atleast match Europe/NATO through one big thrust. Thereafter they would consolidate. Their factories were capable of churning out of 1000s of tanks and aeroplanes in the short period of time - ofcourse that came with reliablity concerns, low tolerance levels and shorter life cycle. While NATO could collectively produce better quality stuff but fewer in numbers.

If you remember there was a time when Russian numbers compelled US to deploy TNW as they could not numerically match them in Europe.

For India too this kind of Design Philosophy was suitable due to:

1. Numerically superior China and Qualitatively superior Pakistan as enemies.
2. Lack of vendors from Europe/US.

So we made the best of it.

We can't blame Russia for our own decision making but the facts stand that now

1. We have the money and access to Western Vendors
2. Russia is in China Camp for the most part and is likely to remain neutral in India- China conflict while West would actively support us.

Thus our decision makes are rightly diversifying from Russian Hardware.

Regards

 

[T-72M1]

did anyone notice that Modi looked unusually uncomfortable when with Putin? He might have made impressive speech after the meeting but to me Modi's body language was unusually stiff, while Putin had the usual ice-maiden look. Oops!
Let me clear it I do respect this ex-KGB man.

yeah, the body language was telling, all is definitely not well, I fear Modi is making a strategic blunder here.

whatever happened to Subhash Chandra Bose's files ....

good point, they were supposed to be the final nail in the congress' coffin, wtf happened ?

 

[desimorty]

Lets learn to accept some ground reality that china is closer to russia than India

1. India doesnt need another akula which requires us to invest 1 billion$.
We need to copy akula and make our own SSN with whatever limited capability we have!
Lets ask France to help in exchange for Areva reactors
Russian wont share yassen class with us--
In return, russian wants us to buy 3 frigates for 3 bill$ while we can make similar frigates at 50% prices

2. Russian engine are crap---We will indeed buy Pak-Fa but after tough negotiation

Source: Is Another Indo-Russian Defense Deal About to Falter?

No its not.
Russia offers the best to India.
China pays large price hikes because of the vendor flaw.
CCP wants a better strategic relations with Putin and Mascow but there is suspicion on both sides.
With Moscow and Delhi there isn't and suspicion.
Hence the word "exclusive" relationship, when Putin describes India.
This is not a UK-US relationship. US-Japan.
Because both Russia and India, have massive potential if Asia unites. Russia in fact is part of India's strategic missile program. They have been essential. They are not collaborating with any other country on that level.
Russia and India have relations going back to the cold war and good ones too.
Both nations at the time were die hard socialist.

For India too this kind of Design Philosophy was suitable due to:

1. Numerically superior China and Qualitatively superior Pakistan as enemies.
2. Lack of vendors from Europe/US.

So we made the best of it.

We can't blame Russia for our own decision making but the facts stand that now

1. We have the money and access to Western Vendors
2. Russia is in China Camp for the most part and is likely to remain neutral in India- China conflict while West would actively support us.

Thus our decision makes are rightly diversifying from Russian Hardware.

Regards

Source: Is Another Indo-Russian Defense Deal About to Falter?

Good analysis but flawed.
The reason the soviets were producing 'more' is because they were thinking of pulling the trigger. That is why they had 30,000 nukes. Now they have under 5 thousand?
So the cold war is over. NWO
You have big players in this new century.
USA.
Europe.
Russia
China,
India,
Brazil,
Japan,
South Africa
Turkey (IS) Ottoman Empire.

Basically the early19th century all over again.

So if there are not going to be major wars with Nukes. And the big players are NOT going to fight one another, than, you need new weapons for new enemies.
One thing is certain, longer lasting, lower cost weapons with PEACE time use are best.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

I think we're being unduly alarmist in our reading of Indo Russian relationships.The very fact that Modi led a high powered business delegation to Russia signifies a huge strategic shift in our ties with Russia.

All forthcoming defence ventures especially strategic in nature will be evenly split between PSU's & pvt players.I don't think its a coincidence that Reliance signed an agreement with AP for long term lease / ownership of a large chunk of land right after Anil Ambani's Russia trip.

our strategic sourcing apart from Russia in missiles , aircraft , SSN , SSBN , etc with the western powers have yet to bear fruit with the exception of Israel . whereas Russia has shown enough confidence in sharing , if not cutting edge stuff , then , technology which isn't too old .while the halcyon days of Indo Russia bhai bhai is past & the Russians will no longer enjoy a monopoly in their share of our defence acquisition pie, they still have a vital role to play in our larger arena of defence policy .

The Russians will have to get their act together & reach more accommodating terms with us.let's not forget that when we signed the Su 30 MKI with Russia , all they had was s concept on paper , albeit they were upgrading capaciities on a familiar platform - the Su 27 Flanker ( if I'm not mistaken )


Apart from defence , oil & gas forms a major part in our strategic ties with Russia.I believe ONGC Videsh had some not too insignificant take aways from the Modi Putin summit .

 

[deckingraj]

^^^^^^^^^^^ wow...must say we all know media can be biased and can play to a particular theme yet so many people believing that Indian-Russian ties are doomed is mind boggling...Folks what you are witnessing is a slight shift from status quo and it will certainly unearth some exciting as well as disturbing events....Gone are the days when India as a consumer was dirt poor and had no options but russia...It is this reality that needs to sink in among both the partners..however saying that there is anyone out there who can replace Russia then we are fooling ourselves...

Regarding FGFA the change this time has been that IAF wants to first see what is being built before going for the contract...this is in contrast to what Ruskies are used to...no?? In short give it some time...and things will be back to smooth..Russia is too good a partner to let go and same can be said about India from russian perspective.....

 

[Spectre]

No its not.
Russia offers the best to India.
China pays large price hikes because of the vendor flaw.
CCP wants a better strategic relations with Putin and Mascow but there is suspicion on both sides.
With Moscow and Delhi there isn't and suspicion.
Hence the word "exclusive" relationship, when Putin describes India.
This is not a UK-US relationship. US-Japan.
Because both Russia and India, have massive potential if Asia unites. Russia in fact is part of India's strategic missile program. They have been essential. They are not collaborating with any other country on that level.
Russia and India have relations going back to the cold war and good ones too.
Both nations at the time were die hard socialist.


Good analysis but flawed.
The reason the soviets were producing 'more' is because they were thinking of pulling the trigger. That is why they had 30,000 nukes. Now they have under 5 thousand?
So the cold war is over. NWO
You have big players in this new century.
USA.
Europe.
Russia
China,
India,
Brazil,
Japan,
South Africa
Turkey (IS) Ottoman Empire.

Basically the early19th century all over again.

So if there are not going to be major wars with Nukes. And the big players are NOT going to fight one another, than, you need new weapons for new enemies.
One thing is certain, longer lasting, lower cost weapons with PEACE time use are best.

Nukes are a non factor against nuclear powers due to deterrence. Anyway the wars just like in cold war are going to fought in third countries as the countries mentioned above all have their nuclear umbrella with the exception of Brazil and S. Africa who are far removed from any serious conflict.

So we come down to conventional weapons, power and influence projection. In this regard there are only three tiers of power we need to concern ourselves with

Tier 1 - US/NATO
Tier 2 - Russia and China
Tier 3 - Japan, India, Turkey, Pakistan, The GCC countries, Israel, S. Korea
Others - Iran, N. Korea, Egypt, Vietnam, Taiwan etc

Now all of the Tier three countries

1. Have dependencies on Tier 1 and Tier 2 countries
2. Are regional powers
3. Limited influence and projection capabilities.
4. Involved in conflicts

Hence they have to be pawns or pieces for tier 1/2 powers and at the same time push their agenda in hopes of graduating to tier 2 if they have any such desires.

This is where the whole game is being played. US/NATO trying to maintain it's pre-eminence and check/contain China with help of some of tier 3 powers with China trying to resist US efforts with the help of Russia and other tier 3 powers.

This is OK - This is controlled, predictable and civilized as long as China does not grow impatient or take some drastic step.

Wild Cards - Russia: As of now Russia seems to be well aligned and in sync with China - we will see how the posturing changes when Russian situation improves as and when Oil prices rises. Still broadly speaking Russia of now is well restricted to C. Asia and Eastern Europe in other terms a bi-regional power unlike China and US.

Regards

 

[anant_s]

I don't want to belittle Russia, for they have been our all-weather friends. But let's face it, if Russia doesn't improve its habits then all the future Indian & Russian defence deals will be doomed.

Russia might face some tough time now with sanctions due to Crimea events, oil prices having crashed and economic slowdown in Europe.
Traditional arm buyers like India are lured away by new suppliers who till now have proved to be extremely professional (on time delivery of P8i, C130, C17 etc). The problem with Russia IMHO isn't Technical but the bussiness model and ethics.
Today India pays for all military hardware in cash and doesn't depend on any grants or loans. For large defence contractors, such a buyer is a dream customer. Now with clearer norms of procurement coming in, that promise to reduce processing time and simplified offset clause and incentive to setup shop in India, competition is only going to get tougher.
How does Russia respond to this change, remains to be seen, but it would need to do something quickly.

 

[Levina]

I fear Modi is making a strategic blunder here.

No, it isnt Modi's fault if Russian defence industry cant get it's act together.

Putin deliberately cultivates that stone cold - KGB assasin spy - ice maiden - macho man look just like Lalu Yadav cultivates his rustic look, Clinton and Bush their folksy charm.

try this
Putin’s ‘peculiar walk’ linked to KGB weapons training, report claims | World news | The Guardian

As for Russia - well the only thing I can say is that they know how to persevere. With the exception of Jews there have been no single grouping of people who have suffered as much as Russians and have bounced back time and again. Lesser countries would have lost their identity. I salute Russians for this.

True.
I see Russians as dare devils, well most of them are in real life. There's no match to the stunts performed by Russian pilots.

As for Russian Hardware and their lack of reliability - there is a basic difference in design policy b/w Russia and West. Russians believed in short life, numerical superiority and maximum utility.

They knew they can never match the NATO buck for buck hence their entire policy was to overwhelm or atleast match Europe/NATO through one big thrust. Thereafter they would consolidate. Their factories were capable of churning out of 1000s of tanks and aeroplanes in the short period of time - ofcourse that came with reliablity concerns, low tolerance levels and shorter life cycle. While NATO could collectively produce better quality stuff but fewer in numbers.

Yes, it makes sense.

 

[cirr]

Buy，buy and buy!

Making a mockery of Modi's well-publicised slogan "Make in India"?

 

[T-72M1]

No, it isnt Modi's fault if Russian defence industry cant get it's act together.

sure, but we still can't afford to alienate them until a homegrown industry in place. The US will not make major strategic systems like submarines and top line fighters and missiles available for sale, much less transfer the tech. US stuff is also sanctions prone, comes with a high price tag, and other riders. Russia have also been a genuine friend and partner forever.

I want to see 200 FGFA, that'll tie us in for another few decades of strategic partnership while the local industry matures.

Buy，buy and buy!

Making a mockery of Modi's well-publicised slogan "Make in India"?

what do you expect in 1.5 years ? we're talking about raising a whole industry, it'll take some time.

 

[Aham Brahmasmi]

Buy，buy and buy!

Making a mockery of Modi's well-publicised slogan "Make in India"?

well, our armed forces loves foreign maal, not indigenous products. (we mostly "fund" JVs our technical contribution is near 10% in these projects) sad reality.

 

[Levina]

sure, but we still can't afford to alienate them until a homegrown industry in place. The US will not make major strategic systems like submarines and top line fighters and missiles available for sale, much less transfer the tech. US stuff is also sanctions prone, comes with a high price tag, and other riders. Russia have also been a genuine friend and partner forever.

I want to see 200 FGFA, that'll tie us in for another few decades of strategic partnership while the local industry matures.

I guess everything has its pros and cons.

 

[dadeechi]

yeah, the body language was telling, all is definitely not well, I fear Modi is making a strategic blunder here.


good point, they were supposed to be the final nail in the congress' coffin, wtf happened ?

@Levina

Its should not be termed as a blunder rather as a master stroke or a sinister plot depending on which side you are in.

DTTI would include 100+ billions dollars of business. There are deals from US & France to replace each every Russian offer.

Indo-Russian business would now be limited to spares and maintenance only going forward. This itself would turn out to be a painful exercise and would turn out to be a slow and painful death.

 

[desimorty]

Nukes are a non factor against nuclear powers due to deterrence. Anyway the wars just like in cold war are going to fought in third countries as the countries mentioned above all have their nuclear umbrella with the exception of Brazil and S. Africa who are far removed from any serious conflict.

So we come down to conventional weapons, power and influence projection. In this regard there are only three tiers of power we need to concern ourselves with

Tier 1 - US/NATO
Tier 2 - Russia and China
Tier 3 - Japan, India, Turkey, Pakistan, The GCC countries, Israel, S. Korea
Others - Iran, N. Korea, Egypt, Vietnam, Taiwan etc

Now all of the Tier three countries

1. Have dependencies on Tier 1 and Tier 2 countries
2. Are regional powers
3. Limited influence and projection capabilities.
4. Involved in conflicts

Hence they have to be pawns or pieces for tier 1/2 powers and at the same time push their agenda in hopes of graduating to tier 2 if they have any such desires.

This is where the whole game is being played. US/NATO trying to maintain it's pre-eminence and check/contain China with help of some of tier 3 powers with China trying to resist US efforts with the help of Russia and other tier 3 powers.

This is OK - This is controlled, predictable and civilized as long as China does not grow impatient or take some drastic step.

Wild Cards - Russia: As of now Russia seems to be well aligned and in sync with China - we will see how the posturing changes when Russian situation improves as and when Oil prices rises. Still broadly speaking Russia of now is well restricted to C. Asia and Eastern Europe in other terms a bi-regional power unlike China and US.

Regards

Source: Is Another Indo-Russian Defense Deal About to Falter? | Page 2

Your overrating capability.
Regional influence of India is significant.
NATO is not a country.
And all these countries and big 5s are globalization. There is not war just mutual interest.
The concern since the USSR collapse have been the puppet regimes NK, Pakistan, Israel, Iraw, Lybia, Iran since day one.
India and China were bigger but puppets none the less, at least now they know better.
Russia needs Chinas money, but Russia is banking on India in the long run as you can tell from the strategic technology transfers.
Sino Russian relationship started from the 90's because China was desperate for a supplier and Russia was desperate for money.
Indo-Russian relations are far deeper and even the US uses the term "Best Friend" now because "Exclusive" relationship was taken by Putin. The Russians know Delhis politics well and the congress and BJP both have connections within moscow.