Is a Taiwan war conceivable?

[Abhishek_]

^glad to read a sensible post for change. hoping for a peaceful unification (if/when TW wants it)

 

[ephone]

I doubt it will happen in next decades unless military force is used.

I certainly am not pessimistic about the situation in TW even though I think use of force to reunite is the most probable way.

Without using force, TW will like to remain the status quo at least with Independence as the next option.

Those who think a peaceful reunification in the next ten years are really beyond naive. What do you think ten years will do or change dramatically to the situation across straits???

Look at China's history, no matter you go back 2000 years, 3000 years or even 5000 years, do you see once there was a peaceful reunification happened??? Kangxi emperor used the peaceful unification tactics intially towards the power leading by Zheng, did it work??? I am glad Kangxi emperor is such a great emperor who saw through TW's tricks and used force to reclaim TW. I hope the current leaders of China won't be too stupid.

About those nonsense that Chinese will use their own intelligence to solve the problem and Chinese do not fight Chinese, well, the history is exactly the opposite. Chinese history is not a peaceful history about negotiation but a history of war and conquer strategically.

China will not wait forever to keep the status quo. China will not listen to what TW wants. We cannot let such a bunch of 数典忘祖 islanders to decide the fate for Chinese people for the next century.

Some people are pessimistic about the situation in Taiwan. Ma and KMT are still the favourite in the elections. Tsai might have led one poll, but generally it's Ma and KMT. If it weren't for Soong and PFP, Ma would have had a bigger lead. And even though DPP wins, it is NOT because of their independence stance, it is because of other factors. The DPP has relaxed its independence stance, because it realises that Taiwan needs the Mainland and ECFA.


Besides, the province of Taiwan is de jure China's, nothing can change that. The Mainland is playing it slowly, SinoChallenger and other people who believe war is the only option, are out of their minds. Yes, the Mainland could easily take the island by force, and U.S. intervention would be unlikely. However, that is not the best option.

I am certain that Taiwan and China will be reunited peacefully during the next decades.

 

[Abhishek_]

^what good is knowledge about history, if you're unable to learn lessons from it?

 

[ephone]

As what I have just said, history will just repeat.

China's Qing reclaimed TW in 1683, KMT reclaimed TW in 1945 and CCP will reclaim TW in the near future.

^what good is knowledge about history, if you're unable to learn lessons from it?

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

I doubt it will happen in next decades unless military force is used.

I certainly am not pessimistic about the situation in TW even though I think use of force to reunite is the most probable way.

Without using force, TW will like to remain the status quo at least with Independence as the next option.

Those who think a peaceful reunification in the next ten years are really beyond naive. What do you think ten years will do or change dramatically to the situation across straits???

Look at China's history, no matter you go back 2000 years, 3000 years or even 5000 years, do you see once there was a peaceful reunification happened??? Kangxi emperor used the peaceful unification tactics intially towards the power leading by Zheng, did it work??? I am glad Kangxi emperor is such a great emperor who saw through TW's tricks and used force to reclaim TW. I hope the current leaders of China won't be too stupid.

About those nonsense that Chinese will use their own intelligence to solve the problem and Chinese do not fight Chinese, well, the history is exactly the opposite. Chinese history is not a peaceful history about negotiation but a history of war and conquer strategically.

China will not wait forever to keep the status quo. China will not listen to what TW wants. We cannot let such a bunch of 数典忘祖 islanders to decide the fate for Chinese people for the next century.

Pls dont repeat what Kangxi did to Taiwan. Kangxi's invasion to Taiwan means China's extinct. We have lost the best opportunity to invade taiwan when the USA invaded Iraq. And Taiwan is a good example for the whole Chinese society. Why China can do much better than Indians, I think one important factor is that we have Taiwan and Hongkong. We can learn so much from our two little brothers. So let taiwan be taiwan before we become a developed and democratic society.

 

[ephone]

Invade? I think you should use a different term.

We do not call "Invade" but "Reclaim".

HongKong and Macau were with foreign powers. In addition, there were still certain treaties to mark the final year to transfer.

Taiwan is just in the hand of another Chinese power remainder. That makes the issue totally different. There is no time line in this issue while Mainland China definitely will not wait forever for this issue to be resolved.

What Kangxi did was really wise. Otherwise, the western invasion into China might get a century earlier already. There are NOT many leaders who have done the feat as Kangxi Emperor had done if you know what he had done in his years.

"So let taiwan be taiwan before we become a developed and democratic society."???

Is that a joke???

What happens if China does not become a democratic society??? We let TW be a separate province forever???

Pls dont repeat what Kangxi did to Taiwan. Kangxi's invasion to Taiwan means China's extinct. We have lost the best opportunity to invade taiwan when the USA invaded Iraq. And Taiwan is a good example for the whole Chinese society. Why China can do much better than Indians, I think one important factor is that we have Taiwan and Hongkong. We can learn so much from our two little brothers. So let taiwan be taiwan before we become a developed and democratic society.

 

[SinoChallenger]

Do you think U.S. is that dumb to create the biggest enemy it will have to face with and fight a potential nuclear war with a giant country just for the sake of TW???

Nobody is afraid of China because we haven't fought a significant conflict since 1988 and the Hu / Wen leadership has successfully convinced other national leaders that China is cowardly.

USA will not fight a nuclear war with China for the sake of Taiwanese people. But USA will fight a nuclear war with China to maintain its military dominance in East Asia.

You think U.S. taxpayers will allow that to happen??? If that is the case, during the most powerful time of U.S., aka, after the fall of U.S.S.R, U.S. would have done that already since then U.S. is way more richer, more powerful and China is way more poorer and powerless.

There was no Taiwan independence issue after the fall of USSR. CCP and KMT hammered out the basic principles of reunification in the 1992 concensus, but Taiwan independence supporters seized power in the 90's and onwards until 2008. US support for Taiwan independence started in 1996 when the US sent carrier battle groups into Taiwan Straits, and it's been very clear ever since then that USA will intervene if China tries to attack Taiwan to prevent Taiwan independence.

Today, USA is doing much more than that. It's supporting DPP over KMT so a DPP government would help USA contain China militarily.

The DPP has relaxed its independence stance, because it realises that Taiwan needs the Mainland and ECFA.

That is silly. Of course DPP will appeal to the middle ground to get elected. Once they are in power, there is no question at all what their agenda is.

Besides, the province of Taiwan is de jure China's, nothing can change that.

Don't lie. You know Taiwan independence will change Taiwan's de jure status. You are afraid of war. Just admit it. There's no shame in an overseas Chinese admitting that they are afraid of war and would prefer China surrender territory.

Yes, the Mainland could easily take the island by force, and U.S. intervention would be unlikely.

Don't lie. You know USA will definitely protect Taiwan like they did in 1996. You are afraid of war with USA. Just admit it. There's no shame in an overseas Chinese admitting that they are afraid of war and would prefer China surrender territory.

About those nonsense that Chinese will use their own intelligence to solve the problem and Chinese do not fight Chinese, well, the history is exactly the opposite. Chinese history is not a peaceful history about negotiation but a history of war and conquer strategically.

China will not wait forever to keep the status quo. China will not listen to what TW wants. We cannot let such a bunch of 数典忘祖 islanders to decide the fate for Chinese people for the next century.

The Taiwan independence issue is not a touch feely issue about whether Taiwan people "should feel" Chinese. What it's about is military power. A DPP government will definitely conspire with the USA to contain China, and then PLAN is immediately bottled up in East China Sea. Forget about our patrols around Diaoyutai Islands if China goes DPP, Taiwan is geographically right in middle.

As long as Taiwan is ruled by KMT (read "neutral" between China and USA conflict), PLAN can move aggressively and roll back USA and its allies in East China Sea and South China Sea within a few years. With Taiwan containing China, it becomes that much more difficult, and therefore logically if DPP comes to power either in 2012 or 2016, China's best course of action is to reunify by military invasion, opening up our corridor to Western Pacific, threaten Philippines with land invasion and exert control over South China Sea via Taiping Island.

We probably won't be ready to attack right away in 2012 (next year) but 2016 sounds about right. By then we'll have the Type 052D destroyer and Type 054B frigate along with Type 095 nuclear submarines, Qing class conventional submarines, lots of Type 071 LPD and LCAC, three carriers with >100 J-15's, and J-20! So the really key election is 2012 because we're still vulnerable to containment between 2012 and 2016.

Pls dont repeat what Kangxi did to Taiwan. Kangxi's invasion to Taiwan means China's extinct.

Do you mean that China will be defeated and completely wiped off the planet in a mass genocide if it tries to attack Taiwan?

 

[Ambitious449]

So China is not so hard on Taiwan and Arunanchal? On backfoot? reasons?

 

[SinoChallenger]

So China is not so hard on Taiwan and Arunanchal? On backfoot? reasons?

Since when does Abhishek speak for China's stance on Taiwan and Arunachal? Remember how we shot your patrolling soldiers in AP?

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Invade? I think you should use a different term.

We do not call "Invade" but "Reclaim".

HongKong and Macau were with foreign powers. In addition, there were still certain treaties to mark the final year to transfer.

Taiwan is just in the hand of another Chinese power remainder. That makes the issue totally different. There is no time line in this issue while Mainland China definitely will not wait forever for this issue to be resolved.

What Kangxi did was really wise. Otherwise, the western invasion into China might get a century earlier already. There are NOT many leaders who have done the feat as Kangxi Emperor had done if you know what he had done in his years.

"So let taiwan be taiwan before we become a developed and democratic society."???

Is that a joke???

What happens if China does not become a democratic society??? We let TW be a separate province forever???

I dont know your definition about Forever. but I really prefer Taiwanese way of living. Kangxi is just a barbarian

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I dont know your definition about Forever. but I really prefer Taiwanese way of living. Kangxi is just a barbarian

Kangxi is not Han, but today's CCP is Han.

It is a different matter.

And CCP hates people to compare it with the Qing Dynasty, since CCP is a big fan of the Ming Dynasty.

Don't get misled that CCP loves the Qing Dynasty so much because of those damn pigtail drama, since it is the problem the film producer, not CCP.

 

[no_name]

I dislike the pigtail dramas, plus they tends to be cheap/shoddy when it comes to costumes and background sets.
Much prefer some serious TK or older dynasty films.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Kangxi is not Han, but today's CCP is Han.

It is a different matter.

And CCP hates people to compare it with the Qing Dynasty, since CCP is a big fan of the Ming Dynasty.

Don't get misled that CCP loves the Qing Dynasty so much because of those damn pigtail drama, since it is the problem the film producer, not CCP.

CCP likes Qing very much, look at beijing culture, full of pigtailed culture, there is no Han culture.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

CCP likes Qing very much, look at beijing culture, full of pigtailed culture, there is no Han culture.

CCP isn't Qing, and KMT isn't Ming for sure.

Beijing is not the only part of PRC. If you go to Shanghai, you will see that it has been far less influenced by the pigtail culture.

BTW, since Manchus are also Chinese, so we are using 和谐 to please them and allow them to produce more of those pigtail culture.

I will say that CCP is too tolerant, but they don't like the Qing Dynasty in fact.

 

[SinoChallenger]

Kangxi is not Han, but today's CCP is Han.

It is a different matter.

And CCP hates people to compare it with the Qing Dynasty, since CCP is a big fan of the Ming Dynasty.

Don't get misled that CCP loves the Qing Dynasty so much because of those damn pigtail drama, since it is the problem the film producer, not CCP.

IMHO the decline of Qing Dynasty gets the bad publicity the decline of Ming and Song is just as bad. Corrupt mandarins running amock. Corrupt eunuchs running amok. Patriotic generals being put to death based on rumors.

Kangxi / Qiaolong were great conquerors and they conquered in China's name. They were also very very observant Confucians. These two were probably more Chinese than today's average Han Chinese since few of us do ancestor worship and other rites & rituals anymore. They would know much more about Chinese traditional culture than, say, you or I.