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Is a Taiwan war conceivable?

Is a Taiwan war conceivable?


  • Total voters
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The problem is that Taiwan is far richer than main land China(per capita). It will only work the other way around:)
That's correct! Although the municipalities of Beijing (12 million pop) and Shanghai (18 million pop) have per capita GDP ~$11k and will be approaching Taipei (7 million pop) level of ~$25k in 15-20 years.

Actually, PRC had the military ability to take Taiwan by 1996, but US intervened, so it was not possible. Now PRC is getting to point where it can take Taiwan even against maximum US intervention with minimal cost, so we can finally play the "military option" card.
 
The problem is that Taiwan is far richer than main land China(per capita). It will only work the other way around:)

Yes, but Taiwan is minuscule in comparison to the total amount of China. Even though per capita, China is quite poor, but her total might makes her into one of the most powerful country in the world. The US and Europe dont look at the per capita of China when dealing with her, it's always the total economy and military might.
 
Götterdämmerung;2331627 said:
Yes, but Taiwan is minuscule in comparison to the total amount of China. Even though per capita, China is quite poor, but her total might makes her into one of the most powerful country in the world. The US and Europe dont look at the per capita of China when dealing with her, it's always the total economy and military might.

An analogy would be like saying Switzerland or Qatar are far more powerful than the Soviet Union or the US. Such an argument would be ludicrous and laughable.

That's correct! Although the municipalities of Beijing (12 million pop) and Shanghai (18 million pop) have per capita GDP ~$11k and will be approaching Taipei (7 million pop) level of ~$25k in 15-20 years.

Actually, PRC had the military ability to take Taiwan by 1996, but US intervened, so it was not possible. Now PRC is getting to point where it can take Taiwan even against maximum US intervention with minimal cost, so we can finally play the "military option" card.

China only needs 2-3 cities to overtake Taiwan's overall 18K gdp/capita, not even Taipei's overall. And that's going to happen in 3-5 years.
 
Götterdämmerung;2331627 said:
Yes, but Taiwan is minuscule in comparison to the total amount of China. Even though per capita, China is quite poor, but her total might makes her into one of the most powerful country in the world. The US and Europe dont look at the per capita of China when dealing with her, it's always the total economy and military might.

To be honest, it is not me you need to convince. As long as ppl on Taiwan dont think that way, there is not much you can do. It is all about living standard. No doubt Chinas GDP is bigger than Germany, but will you switch place just for that?:P

Remember GDP and living standard is two different thing. Even is the GDP between China and Japan is similar, it dosnt means that ppl are enjoy the same living standard.
 
using the military option against TW would be a mistake. It is not worth spilling chinese blood.
Unification will happen when TW wants it, any arm-twisting from china will only solidify the china boogeyman status further aligning asian nations with the US.
 
To be honest, it is not me you need to convince. As long as ppl on Taiwan dont think that way, there is not much you can do. It is all about living standard. No doubt Chinas GDP is bigger than Germany, but will you switch place just for that?:P

Remember GDP and living standard is two different thing. Even is the GDP between China and Japan is similar, it dosnt means that ppl are enjoy the same living standard.

I wouldn't swich place with anyone, not even the US with a much bigger GDP. Athough our living standard is one of the highest in the world, for a long time, the US did have a great appeal to a great amount of Germans because of it's its total economic and military power.

By the end of the day, money speaks louder and China has the money ... and the gun.
 
Götterdämmerung;2335914 said:
I wouldn't swich place with anyone, not even the US with a much bigger GDP. Athough our living standard is one of the highest in the world, for a long time, the US did have a great appeal to a great amount of Germans because of it's its total economic and military power.

By the end of the day, money speaks louder and China has the money ... and the gun.
PRC intended to take Taiwan in 1996, troops were mobilized, but the US intervened, so it was not possible back then. Now PRC is getting to point where it can take Taiwan even against maximum US intervention with minimal cost, so we can finally play the "military option" card.
 
PRC intended to take Taiwan in 1996, troops were mobilized, but the US intervened, so it was not possible back then. Now PRC is getting to point where it can take Taiwan even against maximum US intervention with minimal cost, so we can finally play the "military option" card.

The best victory is a victory without a gunshot. That would be economy. As my old prof once said to us: It's the economy, stupid!
 
To be honest, it is not me you need to convince. As long as ppl on Taiwan dont think that way, there is not much you can do. It is all about living standard. No doubt Chinas GDP is bigger than Germany, but will you switch place just for that?:P

Remember GDP and living standard is two different thing. Even is the GDP between China and Japan is similar, it dosnt means that ppl are enjoy the same living standard.

Perceptions are important, that's why the neocons and independence terrorists on Taiwan are slandering China greatly. They've learned a great deal from their masters in Washington.
 
Are you saying that Taiwan is not an inalienable part of China? Here's a suggestion -- stay in the USA and don't bother associating yourself with China.

We have nothing in common with you overseas Chinese with dubious loyalties.

Bad mate!!Overseas Chinese are very proud of their culture and China.
 
You are just pretending to support "doing what's necessary including a scorched earth policy" if Taiwan declares independence...blah...How many battles do you expect and how many do you think ROC forces could win against PLA?

LOL You sure are one angry boy. I'm just glad that you're not in the corridors of power; it would be a disaster. Anything can happen in an armed conflict. So, it's plausible that ROC forces might win a battle or two. I'm guessing that you expect a swift one hour war. The goal is to win without shedding a drop of blood. Since you're so gung-ho on this bloodletting, I take it that you'll be in a PLA uniform storming the beaches when the other shoe drops?
 
The election is all but over now. Huge victory for Taiwan independence supporters. Peaceful reunification is exposed as self-delusion again. China's only choice, now that Taiwanese have spoken loud and clear, is either let them have the land (island of Taiwan) or subjugate the Taiwanese to retake China's island of Taiwan.

2012 ELECTIONS: Poll respondents say Tsai performed best in TV debate

By Mo Yan-chih, Chris Wang and Shih Hsiu-chuan / Staff Reporters, with Staff Writer

An instant poll conducted by the search engine Yahoo-Kimo, the Taiwan unit of Yahoo, yesterday found that 38 percent of respondents thought Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) had performed best in the first televised presidential debate.

Thirty-one percent of respondents favored People First Party presidential candidate James Soong’s (宋楚瑜) performance, while 29 percent said President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) performed better.

Two percent said they were undecided or had no opinion.

Yesterday’s first televised presidential debate took place from 2pm to 4:30pm.

The online poll was conducted from 2pm to 6pm on the question: “Whose performance in the presidential debate did you find the most satisfactory?”

According to Yahoo-Kimo, a total of 12,406 people voted during the four hours. Among them, 4,762 voted in favor of Tsai’s performance, 3,785 in favor of Soong’s performance and 3,629 in favor of Ma’s performance.

At the post-debate press conference, Ma declined to comment on his own performance in the debate, but praised both Tsai and Soong for their performances, promising to value their advice and criticisms.

Ma, in his opening remarks in the debate, used “Taiwan” for the first time when referring to the nation, but later declined to confirm that his recognition of Taiwan as the nation’s title represented his agreement with Tsai’s rhetoric that “the Republic of China [ROC] is Taiwan.”

“When we say ‘Taiwan,’ most of the time we are referring to the ROC. ‘Taiwan’ is the common title for the nation,” Ma said.

On his position on future visits to China if re-elected, which he failed to answer during the debate, Ma said he would not visit China if he could not make the trip as the nation’s leader.

Tsai said at her post-debate press conference that she was glad her proposed “Taiwan consensus” was discussed in the debate and that it would serve as a notice to Beijing, “because China has to realize that if I am elected in January, I would be able to represent the mainstream public opinion.”

Tsai said she also welcomed a surprising remark by Ma, who said in his opening remarks that “Taiwan is also my country” — the first time he has done so in a public setting.

When asked whether she would make a “no independence” pledge, Tsai said the so-called independence is not an issue for the DPP because the party has made it clear that Taiwan is an independent and sovereign country with the current name of the ROC.

It is Ma who has to ask himself where the issue of unification comes from if Ma now views Taiwan as a sovereign country, Tsai said, “and if Taiwan is his country, does the ‘three noes policy’ still mean anything?”

When asked to comment on her debate performance, Tsai said: “Overall, I think I did pretty well.”

Meanwhile, Soong, at his post-debate press conference, when asked by the press whether he felt he seemed to be ignored by Ma and Tsai during the debate, said he was happy to be marginalized “because they both engaged in trivial issues rather than ideas to rule the country.”
While giving high praise for Ma and Tsai for their performance, Soong added that he also put a lot of effort into the debate.

Soong pledged to establish a “Two Rs” government — Responsible and Responsive — if he is elected, to embody the value of the country’s democracy.

2012 ELECTIONS: Poll respondents say Tsai performed best in TV debate - Taipei Times
 
Taiwan will eventually give up. it just makes no logical sense to fight China!
 

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