Is a Taiwan war conceivable?

[anon45]

Taiwan will eventually give up. it just makes no logical sense to fight China!

It made no logical sense to fight the British Empire for independence, politics aren't just logic.

 

[Sasquatch]

It made no logical sense to fight the British Empire for independence, politics aren't just logic.

That was then this is now the One china policy is accepted by majority of the world the game is simple reclaim Chinese Taipei without firing a bullet at it. Taipei's wanted F-16's however got upgrades and the process and soon it will reunify it's a game of patience. when we reunify we will have economic and strategic benefits.

 

[Abhishek_]

The election is all but over now. Huge victory for Taiwan independence supporters. Peaceful reunification is exposed as self-delusion again. China's only choice, now that Taiwanese have spoken loud and clear, is either let them have the land (island of Taiwan) or subjugate the Taiwanese to retake China's island of Taiwan.

its just a poll SC. wait for actual elections son

 

[ephone]

its just a poll SC. wait for actual elections son

It does not matter. Neither KMT and DPP has the guts to say anything close to get independence from China. No matter who rules China, nobody dare let TW get away including CCP. Otherwise, CCP can count its days to be topped off.

 

[Abhishek_]

It does not matter. Neither KMT and DPP has the guts to say anything close to get independence from China. No matter who rules China, nobody dare let TW get away including CCP. Otherwise, CCP can count its days to be topped off.

getting independence is no longer the issue, there's hardly anything TW will gain from it. status quo seems to be preferred as many are still wary of unification.
anyway, it is TW's decision if, when and how to unify.

 

[ephone]

It is TW's decision between status quo and reunification. However, it is China's decision when it is proper to reclaim. Obviously China will not wait forever. We have a time table to fulfill China's obligation.

Reunification of China is the history obligation for all Chinese. Mao said so, Deng said so and Jiang said so as well. It won't be long for the proper time to come, basically the time with the minimum cost.

China won't let those TW islanders to decide this issue. Otherwise, Shanghai, Guangdong, Dongbei provinces can all claim for their independence. It is NOT that case of course.

getting independence is no longer the issue, there's hardly anything TW will gain from it. status quo seems to be preferred as many are still wary of unification.
anyway, it is TW's decision if, when and how to unify.

 

[Abhishek_]

It is TW's decision between status quo and reunification. However, it is China's decision when it is proper to reclaim. Obviously China will not wait forever. We have a time table to fulfill China's obligation.

Reunification of China is the history obligation for all Chinese. Mao said so, Deng said so and Jiang said so as well. It won't be long for the proper time to come, basically the time with the minimum cost.

China won't let those TW islanders to decide this issue. Otherwise, Shanghai, Guangdong, Dongbei provinces can all claim for their independence. It is NOT that case of course.

is there a website where I can download this timetable?

 

[Farooq]

________________
使用谷歌翻譯的樂趣

 

[SinoChallenger]

It does not matter. Neither KMT and DPP has the guts to say anything close to get independence from China. No matter who rules China, nobody dare let TW get away including CCP. Otherwise, CCP can count its days to be topped off.

Actually the situation is worse than you might expect:

KMT's position is "There is one China. The two sides of the Taiwan straits have different interpretations due to civil war. Under our interpretation, the Republic of China is the rightful government of all China."

Tsai Ing-Wen stated the DPP's position "We do not need to declare independence because we are already an independent nation with our own government, people and territory. Currently, our name is the "Republic of China" but we may choose to rename ourselves "Republic of Taiwan" and work together with the USA to gain full statehood rights such as UN representation."

Let there be no mistake. DPP is resolutely the party of Taiwan independence. As long as DPP has the voter's mandate, nobody is scared of boldly asserting Taiwan's independence. A DPP government means Taiwan will plot with the USA to contain China with its role as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" and then humiliate China by making Taiwan independence formal de jure.

 

[ephone]

There is no need to be sarcastic. Do you doubt China's determination to reclaim TW? I do not think U.S. doubts that at all. What U.S. is doing is trying to prolong the unavoidable time for the reunification. Well, it seems that it does not give those TW islanders much confidence either.

is there a website where I can download this timetable?

---------- Post added at 09:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:15 PM ----------

Do you mean DPP dares to declare independence when it grabs power in 2012???

If that is the case, it is indeed worse than what I have expected. For sure PLA need move in to take over.

Other than that, I do not see anything worse than what I have expected.

Actually the situation is worse than you might expect:

KMT's position is "There is one China. The two sides of the Taiwan straits have different interpretations due to civil war. Under our interpretation, the Republic of China is the rightful government of all China."

Tsai Ing-Wen stated the DPP's position "We do not need to declare independence because we are already an independent nation with our own government, people and territory. Currently, our name is the "Republic of China" but we may choose to rename ourselves "Republic of Taiwan" and work together with the USA to gain full statehood rights such as UN representation."

Let there be no mistake. DPP is resolutely the party of Taiwan independence. As long as DPP has the voter's mandate, nobody is scared of boldly asserting Taiwan's independence. A DPP government means Taiwan will plot with the USA to contain China with its role as an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" and then humiliate China by making Taiwan independence formal de jure.

 

[SinoChallenger]

Do you mean DPP dares to declare independence when it grabs power in 2012???

If that is the case, it is indeed worse than what I have expected. For sure PLA need move in to take over.

Other than that, I do not see anything worse than what I have expected.

Of course, there is no other reason for the DPP's existence. It is a deeply popular movement.

When asked whether she would make a “no independence” pledge, Tsai said the so-called independence is not an issue for the DPP because the party has made it clear that Taiwan is an independent and sovereign country with the current name of the ROC.

All they need to do is rename themselves Republic of Taiwan and seek international recognition.

 

[ephone]

First, international recognition is impossible. China will not act as sitting duck.

Second, DPP's popularity is actually going down compared to what it was during Chen Shuibian's era.

DPP now try to plays vaguely without touching the issue reunification/independence since now most votes in TW stick to the status quo type of situation. They do not want to reunification but they do not/dare not get independence either.

They always say their name is ROC and it has not changed for the past several decades. Saying ROC is not what worries China at all. Seeking international recognition nowadays? Well, good luck with TW. So what you said is not true.

Of course, there is no other reason for the DPP's existence. It is a deeply popular movement.



All they need to do is rename themselves Republic of Taiwan and seek international recognition.

 

[SinoChallenger]

First, international recognition is impossible. China will not act as sitting duck.

Second, DPP's popularity is actually going down compared to what it was during Chen Shuibian's era.

DPP now try to plays vaguely without touching the issue reunification/independence since now most votes in TW stick to the status quo type of situation. They do not want to reunification but they do not/dare not get independence either.

They always say their name is ROC and it has not changed for the past several decades. Saying ROC is not what worries China at all. Seeking international recognition nowadays? Well, good luck with TW. So what you said is not true.

Are you kidding? Two snaps from Hillary Clinton's finger and immediately Republic of Taiwan is a nation state recognized by all the West and more than half the countries in Asia.

USA just withholds diplomatic recognition of Taiwan to blackmail China. They can recognize it anytime they want (provided Taiwanese themselves want it). China's position is actually really tenuous here, because the fact is Taiwan is independent already (de facto) and all it needs is de jure recognition. China is diplomatically very weak and can be isolated by US relatively easily.

The only thing keeping the genie in the bottle is China threatening to attack if Taiwan goes de jure independent, and China making concessions to US on other issues so US can give Taiwan a bit of cold shoulder. Both of these can become ineffective at any time.

 

[ephone]

Well, why don't you ask Hillary to snap her finger now? I bet TW will be glad to ask her to do so as well.

Do you think U.S. is that dumb to create the biggest enemy it will have to face with and fight a potential nuclear war with a giant country just for the sake of TW???

You think U.S. taxpayers will allow that to happen??? If that is the case, during the most powerful time of U.S., aka, after the fall of U.S.S.R, U.S. would have done that already since then U.S. is way more richer, more powerful and China is way more poorer and powerless.

What a weird assessment coming from you.

Are you kidding? Two snaps from Hillary Clinton's finger and immediately Republic of Taiwan is a nation state recognized by all the West and more than half the countries in Asia.

USA just withholds diplomatic recognition of Taiwan to blackmail China. They can recognize it anytime they want (provided Taiwanese themselves want it). China's position is actually really tenuous here, because the fact is Taiwan is independent already (de facto) and all it needs is de jure recognition. China is diplomatically very weak and can be isolated by US relatively easily.

The only thing keeping the genie in the bottle is China threatening to attack if Taiwan goes de jure independent, and China making concessions to US on other issues so US can give Taiwan a bit of cold shoulder. Both of these can become ineffective at any time.

 

[中国万岁-ProsperThroughCo-]

Some people are pessimistic about the situation in Taiwan. Ma and KMT are still the favourite in the elections. Tsai might have led one poll, but generally it's Ma and KMT. If it weren't for Soong and PFP, Ma would have had a bigger lead. And even though DPP wins, it is NOT because of their independence stance, it is because of other factors. The DPP has relaxed its independence stance, because it realises that Taiwan needs the Mainland and ECFA.


Besides, the province of Taiwan is de jure China's, nothing can change that. The Mainland is playing it slowly, SinoChallenger and other people who believe war is the only option, are out of their minds. Yes, the Mainland could easily take the island by force, and U.S. intervention would be unlikely. However, that is not the best option.

I am certain that Taiwan and China will be reunited peacefully during the next decades.