IRIAF | News and Discussions

[glablo]

Russia has consistently been cold toward Iran.
While it was willing to sell S-400s to Turkey, which is eager to attack Russia in various areas, it finally sold only four S-300s to Iran after a dispute in the International Court of Justice.
There is no way that Russia would ever sell Su-35S to Iran, and the Iranian government has clearly been deceived from the very beginning.
There is no other way but to abandon the illusion and take the path of self-sufficiency.

 

[TheImmortal]

Russia has consistently been cold toward Iran.
While it was willing to sell S-400s to Turkey, which is eager to attack Russia in various areas, it finally sold only four S-300s to Iran after a dispute in the International Court of Justice.
There is no way that Russia would ever sell Su-35S to Iran, and the Iranian government has clearly been deceived from the very beginning.
There is no other way but to abandon the illusion and take the path of self-sufficiency.

They offered SU-57 and assistance on Turkish TFX project. Erodgan toured the SU-57 with Putin. Bagheri and Co got to see helicopters with some Russian military officials.

See the difference.

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

I didn’t mean to come off like that. I was saying if we don’t get it, it’s not THAT big deal of deal since we were only getting 24 plus some double seaters.

Iran would need 70+ (maybe even 100+) modern fighters to really change the reality on the ground in terms of Air Force vs others in the region. Iran’s airforce on paper while decent size, is mostly made up of obsolete fighters sorely in need of upgrades.

In a modern war you can easily lose 50 fighters in a year or shorter (see Russian and Ukraine loses). So Iran needs to plan for a large Air Force. Or else the enemy will just focus on taking out your most modern fighters and then you lost contesting the airspace. After that the war starts going against you as your IADS systems get destroyed one by one placing the overall network under greater strain.

Iran won’t have the luxury of Ukraine having new SAMs flown in every week to replenish old ones. So after a certain point Iran’s IADS will collapse and then the real pain begins. This is why I advocate for a large air superiority based force rather than a bomber or attack force, mostly for defense in their own airspace.

Trying to destroy gain air superiority in Iranian airspace when there is 100+ air superiority fighter and a robust IADS would be very challenging and costly on any enemy even the vaunted USAAF.

Thanks for the clarification. Iran definitely needs a stronger airforce as a priority. So what sort of timescale would you give Iran to achieve these sort of numbers purely on its domestic production ability?

Not only that, do you think Iran has the technology to begin with in order to make 100 aircraft a game changing airforce? 100 su-35 are not the same as 100 Kowsar II from what I have learnt on here.

 

[TheImmortal]

Thanks for the clarification. Iran definitely needs a stronger airforce as a priority. So what sort of timescale would you give Iran to acheive these sort of numbers purely on its domestic production ability?

We can look at Turkey as a rough timeline. Iran’s will be a bit longer since every system will need to be built in Iran.

The biggest unknown is a long range AESA radar + a powerful enough engine. The engine being the biggest hold up to a fighter in the size of F-35, J-31, TFX.

Now let’s say by prior to 2030 iran unveils a stronger engine. Then the question becomes okay, what production rate can you achieve? If it’s 2-4 engines a month then it will take a long time to rev up to a large amount of fighters.

Lastly, is willpower. You need a dramatic shift in leadership willpower and philosophy to focus on mass producing fighter jets. It’s expensive and the payoffs can be unknown.

Not only that, do you think Iran has the technology to being with to make 100 aircraft a game changing airforce?

The technology can be built. According to a former individual by the name of EvilWesterners who worked in various defense/tech fields of US/Europe companies there are retired highly qualified scientists living in Iran who have worked on major western military aerospace projects. These individuals at the time have not yet been contacted.

Which again shows willpower as a central issue in Iran.

Another individual popped in shortly after and said he heard thru a friend who has a close friend that is tied to Iranian aerospace industry. This friend told him that there are several engine designs currently in testing. Most are failing at various stages, however, he said one design is showing promise that it can reach end stage R&D.

Of course it could all be propaganda or fake news. No way to tell.

100 su-35 are not the same as 100 Kowsar II from what I have learnt on here.

The issue is lack of engine. You cannot build SU-35 size or TFX size or F-35 size fighter jet with an owj engine.

Most people are hanging their hopes on a poster and discussion by an Iranian official that they will within next 5 years reveal an AL-31 class engine.

I would be shocked if Iran hasn’t been working on ANYTHING this whole time. Now that doesn’t mean the project has Bavar level importance, but I expect some type of project to have been ongoing at whatever funding level.

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

We can look at Turkey as a rough timeline. Iran’s will be a bit longer since every system will need to be built in Iran.

The biggest unknown is a long range AESA radar + a powerful enough engine. The engine being the biggest hold up to a fighter in the size of F-35, J-31, TFX.

Now let’s say by prior to 2030 iran unveils a stronger engine. Then the question becomes okay, what production rate can you achieve? If it’s 2-4 engines a month then it will take a long time to rev up to a large amount of fighters.

Lastly, is willpower. You need a dramatic shift in leadership willpower and philosophy to focus on mass producing fighter jets. It’s expensive and the payoffs can be unknown.

The problem is Iran's rate of production currently is terrible. 4 units of Kowsar since 2018 is pathetic. So not only do they need a better engine but they need to be able to build more. I assume a better budget for IRIAF would remedy this, and the time is ripe for this shift as Iran's missile air defence network has had the lion's share and is at a decent level.

The technology can be built. According to a former individual by the name of EvilWesterners who worked in various defense/tech fields of US/Europe companies there are retired highly qualified scientists living in Iran who have worked on major western military aerospace projects. These individuals at the time have not yet been contacted.

Which again shows willpower as a central issue in Iran.

Another individual popped in shortly after and said he heard thru a friend who has a close friend that is tied to Iranian aerospace industry. This friend told him that there are several engine designs currently in testing. Most are failing at various stages, however, he said one design is showing promise that it can reach end stage R&D.

Of course it could all be propaganda or fake news. No way to tell.



The issue is lack of engine. You cannot build SU-35 size or TFX size or F-35 size fighter jet with an owj engine.

Most people are hanging their hopes on a poster and discussion by an Iranian official that they will within next 5 years reveal an AL-31 class engine.

I would be shocked if Iran hasn’t been working on ANYTHING this whole time. Now that doesn’t mean the project has Bavar level importance, but I expect some type of project to have been ongoing at whatever funding level.

I think most of the expat Iranians who have returned back to Iran already have one foot in the West with things like pensions, houses and bank accounts, which would all be taken away if they were to be found to be working for Iranian military. Iran knows this so probably why they don't waste their time contacting them. They'd rather they come and spend their dollars/euros/pounds in Iran's economy for however long they stay in Iran for vacation.

It's a shame because it appears Iran is reinventing the wheel since a lot of these failures would be avoided if some sort of cooperation existed between our scientists and Russian/Chinese counterparts. This seems like time wasted considering how things are developing in the region.

I think a larger engine should be manifold times important as Bavar, a system that we haven't even seen work yet and an area which we're strong in. We're heading in a situation where a fraction of what we've been discussing will come to fruition before the West and Israel begin to attack Iran. This whole shipping issue in strait of Hormoz will escalate, I fear.

 

[mohsen]

BT said on his account that IRIAF was asking for R-37 and Russia refused. I can add a screenshot. Call him whatever, he is 9/10 times correct about IRIAF technical details. He reported this cancellation news that come out officially now, days back. He was the one who broke the SU-35S discussion in October 2022 when Bagheri was in Moscow, the entire Egyptian fleet etc. He may be Shahist but he is credible.

Yes, he has no credibility for me. I consider him a mouth piece of western intelligence services who serves their propaganda, specially when there is a political aspect in his argument (in this case, anti Russian rhetoric), then he wouldn't hesitate in his lies. they give him some speculations just to force the other side's reaction.


As I said, the difference is between not finalizing and cancellation, those 24 Sukois have always been just an open speculation. In his interview, Vahedi didn't mention any technical obstacle, contrary, he firmly said we need those aircrafts and indirectly asked higher authorities to finalize the deal. so I don't give a damn about BT's excuses, specially since he has no explanation about other planned orders.

Military budget of Iran - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

SIPRI says Mil. budget was 2.2 % of GDP in 2020, which is by UN figures, currently standing at ~600 Bln USD so the budget is 13 Bln USD, if we go by WB/IMF figures then its 7-8 Bln. 34 % of it goes to Sepah and 13 % goes to Artesh

Sepah/Artesh shares by UN = 4.4/1.7 Billion USD
Sepah/Artesh shares by WB/UN = 2.7/1.0 Billion USD

So from this 1.0-1.7 Billion USD for Artesh the BT's figure of 200-400 Million for IRIAF seems accurate. Forget any author, do this math yourself, IRIAF in last 10 years

- Struggling to pay IAIO for 10-12 Million USD per unit Kowsar which is why only 4 have been delivered so far despite the fact that some 18-24 are on floors of HESA waiting for $$$. A fully operationalized one with ECM, WVR, and BVR will cost around 15-17 Million USD.
- F-14A to F-14AM costs 2-5 Million USD and barely ~15-18 fighters have been converted
- Maghsood LRBVR delivery is pending, Azarakhsh CCD-WVR is pending
- Dowran project took ~10+ years for the conversion of only ~36 F-4E/D in a fleet of 64
- Kaman-22 UCAV is not being procured like UCAV procurement by their branches.
- Mirage F-1 fleet has no weapon, pylon, radars do not work.

Compare this to IRIN's rough list of procurement in last 10-15 years

- 1 x Fateh Submarine
- 14 x Ghadir Submarines
- 3 Kilo Submarine Refits
- 4 x Moudge class frigates + 3 being built
- 4 x Sina Class Missile FACs
- 3 x Sea bases + 2 being built
- 1 x Shahin Minesweeper
- 5 x Mil-171 ASW Helis
- 100s of AShcM

Even a blind man will tell who is getting what share of the budget.

These numbers are not accurate as well, changing $6 billion into $15billion is one example. latest SIPRI figure is 6.8

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681227320697159682

nonetheless, I specially asked about IRGC air force budget, I hope your source isn't BT!

You do realize that thousands and thousands of Yemenis have been killed by Saudi Air Strikes and Yemen practically is rubble now?

Remove IRIAF from the equation, our IADS will stretch and civilians/infrastructure will be vulnerable. Yes yes IRGC can massacre the enemy with their missile strikes but you can not defend by offense.

Yes, when you have no air defense, then the enemy can't fly freely and drop it's dumb bombs.

I can't think of any attack scenario on Iran (limited/mass/low altitude/high altitude) in which our air force could achieve better results than air defenses. enemy has absolute superiority in numbers and tech. we may score some kills, but will loose too and in no time air force is done.

Russia is fighting an offensive war in which the role of the AF is Attack + air superiority in enemy airspace. IRIAF with its midget budget can only establish an interceptor-based force that works within IADS and seldom can go out but rush back. Two different cases so can not be compared

Actually, right now Russia is on defensive in front lines, but if they use low altitude CAS support, their assets fall into Ukrainians ambush, even manpads become a threat (as we have seen several times), if they use high altitude, then other mid/high range defense will target them.
So helicopters which stay behind the line and hide quickly has become their CAS support.

Then even start the meaningless discussion with Russia in the first place? IRIAF needs new fighters. I am personally against SU-35S for its cost but IRIAF needs new planes

government was changed and I hope we don't hear this discussion anymore. no matter how much some (commanders) are eager for it!

 

[glablo]

The IRGC, with its superior technology and budget, is not interested in fighter aircraft, so maintaining an air force will be difficult.
The inefficiency of having two armies is a drag.

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

The IRGC, with its superior technology and budget, is not interested in fighter aircraft, so maintaining an air force will be difficult.
The inefficiency of having two armies is a drag.

We don't know what their interests are with regards to air power. They have an aerospace arm which has some aircraft so they obviously have some interest. Iran's 2600 year history has only been so because of 2 armies, and many other nations have more than one army branch. However, it is plausible for IRGC and IRIAF to unite into one body, that way one budget is easier to deal with than two and IRGC are more competent. This way funding may come forthwith.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Actually, right now Russia is on defensive in front lines, but if they use low altitude CAS support, their assets fall into Ukrainians ambush, even manpads become a threat (as we have seen several times), if they use high altitude, then other mid/high range defense will target them.
So helicopters which stay behind the line and hide quickly has become their CAS support.

russia problem is that they just didn't invest in producing a dedicated Sead aircraft , if they had something like F-18 growler their airforce had a far easier time over ukraine

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682848754817179648

 

[HGV]

Practically, Russia is managing the Ukraine war without it's airforce. even the low use of their air assets has ended badly with costly looses. and this is Russia, the country which owns the production line and technology.

Iran needs heavy interceptor to act as force multiplier / reduce load on IADS, not to launch precision bombing runs in neighbouring countries

KSA/Yemen war was another example, when one side had one of greatest airforces against no airforce and almost no air defenses.

Unlike Ukraine, Houthis did not receive (or take over) huge supplies of modern AD. Saudis, with minimal ground forces (mostly foreigners), prevented Houthis from capturing Aden and pushed them back quite substantially.

It's a stupid argument - IRGC themselves learnt the importance of air power in Syria.

 

[tsunset]

Iran launches massive aerial war game

TEHRAN - The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) was set to begin extensive drills in the country’s central areas on Sunday night in the country’s central areas.

www.tehrantimes.com

The military exercise will involve 92 aircraft, including different fighter planes, interceptor aircraft, bombers, and unmanned aerial vehicles, according to Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi.

“In this exercise, young and creative personnel who have learned all their specialties in Iran under the supervision of the national instructors, using 92 types of interceptor fighters, bombers and drones, will carry out a variety of reconnaissance and photography operations, destroy air and ground targets, psychological operations, electronic warfare and passive defense. They will also test newly manufactured systems and modern equipment,” he stated.

He went on to highlight, “This exercise is one of the exercises approved by the central headquarters of Hazrat Khatam al-Anbiya (PBUH) and it is planned and implemented in two directions in a bid to improve the combat ability and obtaining a suitable model for combat in real conditions by using various types of manned and unmanned aircraft.”

He also noted that the Air Force units are going to carry out a broad range of operations in the war game, such as reconnaissance and aerial imaging, detonation of air and ground targets, electronic warfare, civil defense tactics, and testing of new modern systems.

“This exercise will be held based on the self-sufficiency and self-confidence of the Air Force, and during it, young, talented, intelligent, trained and powerful pilots, along with the expert and committed technical staff of this divine force, will use the experience of the veterans of the eight years of the Sacred Defense, combat tactics and various types of drone (UAV) operations in the form of highly precision and destruction,” the commander continued.

In order to eliminate targets with pinpoint accuracy, he stated, Air Force troops would also practice a variety of combat tactics and standoff attack operations using drones.

“The main axis of the war game is ensuring sustainable security, promoting and strengthening regional relations, good neighborliness and defending the country’s air borders,” the general remarked.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1683192302611709952

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1683192302611709952

Someone please confirm this is what the NOTAM was for?

 

[sanel1412]

Someone please confirm this is what the NOTAM was for?

Yes,that is it