IRIAF | News and Discussions

[Deino]

as what i read is that it is not canceled, but is not prio cause russia itself needs the whole production at the moment. It is said some of the iran SU-35 are already stand by, but have still to be modified for Iran needs. Maybe these are the Egypt SU-35 but not modified by now.

Edit:

Ah, after reading your link it says the same. My source is that link

Russian Air Force Receives New Batch of Su-35 Air Superiority Fighters: Two Further Batches in Production

The Russian Air Force has received a new batch of Su-35S heavyweight fighter aircraft from the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant located in the Russian Far East,

militarywatchmagazine.com

Edit 2:

Well, "Source: Babak Taghvaee" in your link.

I know that Babak is a source of "special" caution ... but still more reliable than militarywatchmagazine, which mostly posts pure nonsense!

 

[TheImmortal]

I tried to telling people Russia isn’t going to have over critical knowledge (AL-31 tech) to any nation much less the Iranians. But people on here don’t want to believe reality.

China and India didn’t get it. In case of India they got very basic ToT deals devoid of any major ToT.

And if this bi-polar fugitive Babak is right, not only did Russia refuse any meaningful ToT transfer they refused basic necessities of any major arms deal (spare parts, weapon components, and domestic maintenance ability).

It is very disappointing that Russia continues to follow this policy against Iran. Likely due to strong Russian-Israeli relations. Meanwhile even Turkey gets offered Russian assistance on their TFX project as well as the SU-57 and all they have done is damage Russia.

 

[WudangMaster]

This is the most depressing interview with Azarmehr to date. A lot of hard truths are being revealed about IRIAF and the pure incompetence on the part of defense ministry...

 

[drmeson]

Wow joke of the year signed drMeson

- Kowsar production rate is barely 4-6 per year due to $$$ cuts -

It's completely false, hyper false, delirium. It's double that and even more and they are building the new version of the Kowsar with delta wings in several copies. In a few weeks we will have news. Change tape because you always come back with bogus arguments that don't pass the reality test. And you never say the F-5s get Kowsar upgrades. In fact, Iran is doing a lot more than you think and the money is very well invested in the fighter jet sector in amazing ways. This will be confirmed hands down.

And what they did with the F-7 is genius and you didn't understand the process of technological improvement in this sector. The Navy sector is bubbling with new powerful products, the combat aircraft sector is also making giant strides and as a general said a few weeks ago, we will have great news in this sector and there is no doubt about it. I now understand why the Iranian army does not stress with the arrival or not of the Su 35S.

just give up man

 

[Hack-Hook]

Any info on this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1682327180158672897

Delivery of Su-35SE to Iran might be cancelled?

Delivery of Su-35SE to Iran might be cancelled? On 18 July 2023, the commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF), Brig Gen Vahedi, reported that the General Staff o...

www.scramble.nl

delivery was not even in agenda
how it can be cancelled. it all was some media drama

 

[drmeson]

First prove that Russians wont sell the missile, then ask for reason!

BT said on his account that IRIAF was asking for R-37 and Russia refused. I can add a screenshot. Call him whatever, he is 9/10 times correct about IRIAF technical details. He reported this cancellation news that come out officially now, days back. He was the one who broke the SU-35S discussion in October 2022 when Bagheri was in Moscow, the entire Egyptian fleet etc. He may be Shahist but he is credible.

Money is distributed based on each division's role in country's security and deterrence.
What's the source of your numbers?

Military budget of Iran - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

SIPRI says Mil. budget was 2.2 % of GDP in 2020, which is by UN figures, currently standing at ~600 Bln USD so the budget is 13 Bln USD, if we go by WB/IMF figures then its 7-8 Bln. 34 % of it goes to Sepah and 13 % goes to Artesh

Sepah/Artesh shares by UN = 4.4/1.7 Billion USD
Sepah/Artesh shares by WB/UN = 2.7/1.0 Billion USD

So from this 1.0-1.7 Billion USD for Artesh the BT's figure of 200-400 Million for IRIAF seems accurate. Forget any author, do this math yourself, IRIAF in last 10 years

- Struggling to pay IAIO for 10-12 Million USD per unit Kowsar which is why only 4 have been delivered so far despite the fact that some 18-24 are on floors of HESA waiting for $$$. A fully operationalized one with ECM, WVR, and BVR will cost around 15-17 Million USD.
- F-14A to F-14AM costs 2-5 Million USD and barely ~15-18 fighters have been converted
- Maghsood LRBVR delivery is pending, Azarakhsh CCD-WVR is pending
- Dowran project took ~10+ years for the conversion of only ~36 F-4E/D in a fleet of 64
- Kaman-22 UCAV is not being procured like UCAV procurement by their branches.
- Mirage F-1 fleet has no weapon, pylon, radars do not work.

Compare this to IRIN's rough list of procurement in last 10-15 years

- 1 x Fateh Submarine
- 14 x Ghadir Submarines
- 3 Kilo Submarine Refits
- 4 x Moudge class frigates + 3 being built
- 4 x Sina Class Missile FACs
- 3 x Sea bases + 2 being built
- 1 x Shahin Minesweeper
- 5 x Mil-171 ASW Helis
- 100s of AShcM

Even a blind man will tell who is getting what share of the budget.

Practically, Russia is managing the Ukraine war without it's airforce. even the low use of their air assets has ended badly with costly looses. and this is Russia, the country which owns the production line and technology.

Russia is fighting an offensive war in which the role of the AF is Attack + air superiority in enemy airspace. IRIAF with its midget budget can only establish an interceptor-based force that works within IADS and seldom can go out but rush back. Two different cases so can not be compared ... but for the sake of argument:

- Russia would have won the war in a month if RuAF would have established air superiority over Ukrainian skies, they missed the chance and instead relied upon obsolete techniques.
- Their armored columns got crushed because of a lack of air cover.

KSA/Yemen war was another example, when one side had one of greatest airforces against no airforce and almost no air defenses.

You do realize that thousands and thousands of Yemenis have been killed by Saudi Air Strikes and Yemen practically is rubble now?

Remove IRIAF from the equation, our IADS will stretch and civilians/infrastructure will be vulnerable. Yes yes IRGC can massacre the enemy with their missile strikes but you can not defend by offense.

Domestic Kowsar (CAS) is the only asset which I think can have a low role in war, and if we don't have the money to expand it's production, then why waste the money on foreign assets which their maintenance cost even in peacetime will swallow the whole budget?

Then even start the meaningless discussion with Russia in the first place? IRIAF needs new fighters. I am personally against SU-35S for its cost but IRIAF needs new planes

- Air superiority/Interceptor (SU-35S or MIG-29M/MIG-35)
- Light CAP (Kowsar-I/II)

 

[drmeson]

I tried to telling people Russia isn’t going to have over critical knowledge (AL-31 tech) to any nation much less the Iranians. But people on here don’t want to believe reality.

Please provide evidence that "critical knowledge" of AL-31 was part of the SU-35S deal?

Hint: Not a single time the word "AL-31" was uttered in regards to SU-35S procurement by Iranian officials or journalists.

..............

Actually, it's funny how I again got proven to be accurate. BT, a credible journalist in military matters (forget his politics) recently reported that the quarrel between Russia and Iran for SU-35S started on R-37 + ECM (Khibiny) like how predicted:

Here are my direct quotes from this thread, constantly saying that Russia will not give R-37+Khibiny ECM and 85 USD for SU-27 disguised as SU-35S will be too much for IRIAF LOL Bagheri agreed with me.

- I doubt Khibiny ECM will arrive in Iran. RuAF survival in Ukraine skies and on NATO's periphery depends upon Khibiny ECM and Russia would not risk leaking the system to Iran which they know studies foreign systems and replicates at home.

Please provide examples where Khibiny ECM is given by Russia to any one of ~25 Flanker family operators around the globe?

- Russia won't give R-37 so IRIAF will be stuck with R-77R which is 100 KM at best BVR weapon.

SU-35S has a PESA radar, Khibiny ECM will not come

- Its top-notch ECM like current Khibiny, 25 countries fly Flankers but how many operate this system? The day system is compromised, it will be for sale. Its how Rosoboronexport operates.

Here are your direct quotes constantly saying Russia will supply R-37+Khibiny ECM like they are not a big deal and how SU-35 is awesome for IRIAF.

(This was your comment on my R-37 post above)

This is opinion not fact. We live in extraordinary times. Assuming the deal goes thru (big if), then it opens the gate to a new era of cooperation.

you can integrate a larger future BVR on SU-35. Literally as we speak US is integrating its missiles on to Ukrainian (Russian) fighter jets, so it can be done.

And if this bi-polar fugitive Babak is right

Professional Journalist writing for some 10 aviation magazines
Author of Multiple Combat Aviation Books
Ex IRIAF hired Engineer with hands-on experience on SU-24MK, Mirage F-1, F-4E/D
Roughly 9/10 times correct about IRIAF technical details

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

BT may have technical knowledge but he certainly doesn't have any inside knowledge of what the military brass of IRIAF are planning and what the diplomacy between Russian and Iranian officials are. He relies on guesswork and hearsay.

TheImmortal is right, even with no ToT, Su-35 in the IRIAF fleet would be an improvement to what we have. The only issue is bullshit stipulations like "it can't be used unless we authorise you, etc", that alone would be a deal breaker.

 

[drmeson]

delivery was not even in agenda
how it can be cancelled. it all was some media drama

Ashtiani confirmed the deal/discussion. Vahedi confirmed the requirement/need before as well.

Costly or what SU-35S is a new fighter and IRIAF needs them new, be it SU-35S, MIG-29, Kowsar or whatever, we need new airframes.

 

[TheImmortal]

Here are your direct quotes constantly saying Russia will supply R-37+Khibiny ECM like they are not a big deal and how SU-35 is awesome for IRIAF.

Yes notice how I prefaced this by saying the words “assuming the deal goes thru (big if)”

So yes, I said If the deal goes thru, than the supply of R37 and ECM would not be a hurdle. The biggest hurdle was the intial deal going thru. This has historically been the issue with any rumored or official deals.

Yet you said this (among many other things):

And this signifies what? Iran and Russia are in a strategic alliance. SU-35 powered by AL-41 are coming to Iran, TEM showed AL-31/41 on their poster as Iranian turbofan by 2026. Big deal for you apparently but to anyone with any common sense, it is not. Su-35S's AL-41F will be overhauled inside Iran so how "odd" it will be if the same AL-31/41 are being manufactured inside Iran?
Your whole argument actually means nothing when an official of Iran has already shown AL-31 as a future domestic product.

Your Claims:

• Russia and Iran are in strategic alliance? NO
• SU-35S w/ AL-41F will be overhauled inside Iran? NO
• Same AL/31-41 being manufactured inside Iran? NO

Clearly your predictions are not coming true. Like I tried to tell you, there was always the possibility of Russia changing their old ways and selling Iran offensive arms, but if BT is right (and you seem to consider him a very accurate source) than it seems Russia ended up pulling a familiar tactic.

 

[tsunset]

The solution to the problem of your debates with ToT and other claims:

Simply stop taking twitter "experts" and think tanks "expert analysis" claims as an official thing!

There are no insiders, no, these telegrams are not affiliated to anything within IRGC or officials: https://www.isna.ir/news/98082617085/ IRGC and the defense department/Artesh are not present on any of those cancerous social medias.

No, Babak is not an insider and even if he have knowledge, none of whatever claim he makes are true beside supported by an official statement.

Yes, Babak is a traitor using Valium and Risperdal every night to treat his psychiatric disease.

Not to mention larpers in those channels that invent claims against Iran.

Same goes for "anonymous sources", which are translated into: "Our personal opinion and speculations/fake news, but under an anonymous person so this will pass better into people's mind"

Looking at the above statements, Scramble Magazine assesses that Russia is not able to meet

This is the website team personal opinion, at least they say it and do not uses "anonymous sources" to make it pass as an official thing.

 

[TheImmortal]

TheImmortal is right, even with no ToT, Su-35 in the IRIAF fleet would be an improvement to what we have. The only issue is bullshit stipulations like "it can't be used unless we authorise you, etc", that alone would be a deal breaker.

Once Iran has the planes Russia can’t do a damn thing. Unless they planted kill switches, which Iran will find over time.

What instead is an option is they would withhold parts, armaments, and servicing the planes. Just like US did after the 1979 revolution.

It appears Israel is not allowing Russia to supply these planes. And if they are supplied they have to be “nerfed” into the ground much like any F-35’s (If they are ever supplied to PG states).

Israel has significant leverage over Russia due to close relations. Furthermore, up till now Israel has avoided sending arms (tanks, air defense systems, missiles, etc) to Ukraine. They could have pressured Russia saying such a move would open the way of Israeli arms flowing into Ukraine.

In the end 24 SU-35S isn’t going to radically change the equations. Especially if Iran can’t get them serviced routinely by Russian/Iranian technicians on its own soil.

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

Once Iran has the planes Russia can’t do a damn thing. Unless they planted kill switches, which Iran will find over time.

What instead is an option is they would withhold parts, armaments, and servicing the planes. Just like US did after the 1979 revolution.

It appears Israel is not allowing Russia to supply these planes. And if they are supplied they have to be “nerfed” into the ground much like any F-35’s (If they are ever supplied to PG states).

Israel has significant leverage over Russia due to close relations. Furthermore, up till now Israel has avoided sending arms (tanks, air defense systems, missiles, etc) to Ukraine. They could have pressured Russia saying such a move would open the way of Israeli arms flowing into Ukraine.

In the end 24 SU-35S isn’t going to radically change the equations. Especially if Iran can’t get them serviced routinely by Russian/Iranian technicians on its own soil.

Just an fyi, I never said it would "change the equation", for that you would need 100 plus aircraft, which is pipe dreams. I said it would improve the airforce and the fact Israel and probably the west are desperate for Russia to cease delivery further emphasises the point

 

[ReasonableStar75]

Once Iran has the planes Russia can’t do a damn thing. Unless they planted kill switches, which Iran will find over time.

What instead is an option is they would withhold parts, armaments, and servicing the planes. Just like US did after the 1979 revolution.

It appears Israel is not allowing Russia to supply these planes. And if they are supplied they have to be “nerfed” into the ground much like any F-35’s (If they are ever supplied to PG states).

Israel has significant leverage over Russia due to close relations. Furthermore, up till now Israel has avoided sending arms (tanks, air defense systems, missiles, etc) to Ukraine. They could have pressured Russia saying such a move would open the way of Israeli arms flowing into Ukraine.

In the end 24 SU-35S isn’t going to radically change the equations. Especially if Iran can’t get them serviced routinely by Russian/Iranian technicians on its own soil.

Seriously i don t understand why Russia thinks Israeli weaponry is so decisive in Ukraine, firstly Ukraine is not going to pay Israel, they cannot, US is not gonna do that for long time,.... if US weaponry probes to be useless today, and they have hurdles to defeat shaheds and lancets drone strikes..... why Russia considers so much Israeli weaponry against Iran deal???? if i were russia i wouldn t worry so much for israeli weapons since ukraine already counts with US weaponry.

I fail to undertand what s happening in Russia mindset, they damage themselves. Russia is doing bad again against Iran, for no reason.

 

[TheImmortal]

Just an fyi, I never said it would "change the equation", for that you would need 100 plus aircraft, which is pipe dreams. I said it would improve the airforce and the fact Israel and probably the west are desperate for Russia to cease delivery further emphasises the point

I didn’t mean to come off like that. I was saying if we don’t get it, it’s not THAT big deal of deal since we were only getting 24 plus some double seaters.

Iran would need 70+ (maybe even 100+) modern fighters to really change the reality on the ground in terms of Air Force vs others in the region. Iran’s airforce on paper while decent size, is mostly made up of obsolete fighters sorely in need of upgrades.

In a modern war you can easily lose 50 fighters in a year or shorter (see Russian and Ukraine loses). So Iran needs to plan for a large Air Force. Or else the enemy will just focus on taking out your most modern fighters and then you lost contesting the airspace. After that the war starts going against you as your IADS systems get destroyed one by one placing the overall network under greater strain.

Iran won’t have the luxury of Ukraine having new SAMs flown in every week to replenish old ones. So after a certain point Iran’s IADS will collapse and then the real pain begins. This is why I advocate for a large air superiority based force rather than a bomber or attack force, mostly for defense in their own airspace.

Trying to destroy gain air superiority in Iranian airspace when there is 100+ air superiority fighter and a robust IADS would be very challenging and costly on any enemy even the vaunted USAAF.