So since 2018 Kowsar unveiling almost 4 years ago we have:
6 built Kowsars of which most (if not all) are according to you....prototype testing models to make sure the test bed is sound for various tasks.
And we have 12 still being built (primer).
So if we take your numbers then production is at a rate of either 18/4 = ~4.5 per year or if we take out the prototypes 12/4 = ~3 per year. If we only account for what is actually 100% built then the number drops even further.
- These are not my numbers (I have no inside scoop or anything), this is what the math adds up to. At least 18 airframes have been on HESA floors out of which 4 have been undergoing actual evaluation.
This is based upon the "economical guess" that Raisi-visit's 6 x shown, were among the Ashtiani-visit's 12. If they were different then there have been 24 but my guess is 18 airframes so far.
Sounds pretty much in line with other earlier generations/iterations of this test bed project.
Not exactly
- 6 x Azarakhash were re-built from 1997-2001. That's 6 testbeds/4 years.
- 5 x Saeqeh-I and 1 x Saeqeh-II were built between 2004 to 2015. That is 6 testbeds/9 years.
- Kowsar-I figures are 18 Aircrafts/4 years = 4.5 aircraft per year. That's far better number.
I know you are overly optimistic about this project (even going so far as to assume a Iranian BVR is being built for it), but the numbers don’t lie.
I am not optimistic at all. I am optimistic for next-generation based upon the simple fact that we now know Iran can build a proper 4.0 generation light combat aircraft from scratch on its soil without outside partnerships or anything. If the next generation will be better than the current one then IRIAF's future is bright at-least for interception. That is what I am optimistic about.
My own guess is that Kowsar-I is what F-2 was for Japan or FCK-1 for Taiwan. An odd 90-100 airframes gave birth to the indigenous fighter aircraft industry that now has given them X-2/F-X.
even going so far as to assume a Iranian BVR is being built for it
I NEVER said that. You are more than welcome to provide evidence otherwise.
I think you may have read my post on an ARH-guided 200 KM range-bearing BVR missile "Maghsoud" being built at Babaei Missile Industries. That is Fakour-90's 2nd generation
for F-14AM or possibly Bayyenat-I carrying F-4E fleet (long shot). According to Key-aero, ~100-120 x Fakour-90 have already been built and are fully operationalized/tested to extremes (track-lock on 0.001 m2 RCS of Shahed 191) and the project has concluded. Now Maghsoud is on verge of being tested by F-14AM. Kowsar can not carry such a heavy missile.
Only Iranian A2A weapon that Kowsar-I can carry is an All-aspect IR guided Fatter from same Babaei Missile Industry. It has the aerodynamics of AIM-9P but the seeker/motor are local. This is it in its maritime SHORAD role.
If this generation or the next one gets more operationalized then we
"may" see PL-12/PL-15 on them because Bayyenat-II's tracking range is that long to use such BVR missiles.
Syria desperately needs such a plane to revitalize its Air Force. Iraq could also use such a plane along with Venezuela. Yet not a single agreement has been signed even though at unveiling (or shortly there after) they said they had agreements with other nations for export.
I have thought of the same. But these airforces have never ever used anything similar before and Syrian Arab AF's history of procurement from Moscow is better than IRIAF. Although I would want HESA to gain battle testing experiences to improve the next gen. How does its radar and ECM fare during CAPs on the border? How active is the RWR/MAWS? Can they track-lock on F-16i/15 from BVR ranges etc similar to how Qiam-1's got tested in hands of Houthis resulting in a new MaRV installation practice for Missiles forces.
As for the trade agreements, I think they specifically used the names "China and Russia". Which IMO could be the import of some combat Tech like missiles or modern ECM pod (We only have Shahin DASH ECM pod right now) which even KAMAN-22 UCAV carry. Topic for another time but I think Kaman-22 may end up as a SIGINT/ELINT platform.