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Mid-September 1990: Pentagon Releases False Reports of Iraqis Massing on Saudi Border
The Pentagon, citing top-secret satellite images, claims that some 250,000 Iraqi troops and 1,500 tanks are gathering on Saudi Arabias border in preparation for an attack. But two commercial Soviet satellite images of the border area, taken at the same time, obtained by Floridas St. Petersburg Times, show only an empty desert. The bulk of the mighty Iraqi army, said to number more than 500,000 in Kuwait and southern Iraq, couldnt be found, Newsday reports. [ST. PETERSBURG TIMES, 1/6/1991; CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, 9/6/2002; LOS ANGELES TIMES, 1/5/2003]
Early 2001: British Intelligence Tells CIA that It Is Not Convinced Curveball is a Reliable Source
MI6, Britains secret intelligence service, cables the CIA informing the agency that it is not convinced that Curveball is a wholly reliable source and that elements of [his] behavior strike us as typical of fabricators, according to a later investigation by the US Senate. The British also note that satellite images taken in 1997 when Curveball was presumably working at Djerf al Nadaf contradict his descriptions of the facility. [LOS ANGELES TIMES, 11/20/2005] However, the CIA ignores the British caveat, and after the Bush administration decides to invade Iraq, Curveballs information is used to bolster the case for war (see February 5, 2003). As reporter Bob Drogin, author of the 2007 book Curveball: Spies, Lies and the Con Man Who Caused a War, will say, [T]he CIA heard what it wanted to hear. It saw what it wanted to see. And it told the president what he wanted to hear. Time and again, intelligence officials discounted contradictory information, filled in gaps, and made up the dots to reach the conclusion they wanted. In part, they were caught up in the climate of fear after 9/11 and felt they couldnt afford to underestimate a possible threat. In part, there was a clear understanding by late 2002 that we were going to war and it would make no difference, and probably would hurt your career, if you tried to get in the way. But mostly, I think incompetence and poor leadership allowed unconfirmed and unreliable information to move up the chain of command. Those few intelligence officers who tried to raise red flags, or issue warnings, either were ignored or treated like heretics.
February 5, 2003: Powell Gives Fraudulent Presentation About Iraqi WMDs to UN
US Secretary of State Colin Powell presents the Bush administrations case against Saddam to the UN Security Council, in advance of an expected vote on a second resolution that the US and Britain hope will provide the justification to use military force against Iraq. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] At the insistence of Powell, CIA Director George Tenet is seated directly behind him to the right. It was theater, a device to signal to the world that Powell was relying on the CIA to make his case that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, Vanity Fair magazine will later explain. [BAMFORD, 2004, PP. 371-2; VANITY FAIR, 5/2004, PP. 232] In his speech before the Council, Powell makes the case that Iraq is in further material breach of past UN resolutions, specifically the most recent one, UN Resolution 1441 (see November 8, 2002). Sources cited in Powells presentation include defectors, informants, communication intercepts, procurement records, photographs, and detainees. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] Most of the allegations made by Powell are later demonstrated to be false. The defectors and other sources went unidentified, the Associated Press will later report. The audiotapes were uncorroborated, as were the photo interpretations. No other supporting documents were presented. Little was independently verifiable. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq's December 7 Declaration Was Inaccurate - Powell contends that Iraqs December 7 declaration was not complete. According to UN Resolution 1441 the document was supposed to be a currently accurate, full and complete declaration of all aspects of its programs to develop weapons of mass destruction. But Saddam has not done this, says Powell, who explains that Iraq has yet to provide sufficient evidence that it destroyed its previously declared stock of 8,500 liters of anthrax, as it claimed in the declaration. Furthermore, notes the secretary of state, UNSCOM inspectors had previously estimated that Iraq possessed the raw materials to produce as much as 25,000 liters of the virus. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003]
Iraq Has Ties to Al-Qaeda - Powell repeats earlier claims that Saddam Husseins government has ties to al-Qaeda. Powell focuses on the cases of the militant Islamic group Ansar-al-Islam and Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian-born Palestinian, who had received medical treatment in Baghdad during the summer of 2002 (see December 2001-Mid-2002). [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] However, just days before Powells speech, US and British intelligence officialsspeaking on condition of anonymitytold the press that the administrations allegations of Iraqi-al-Qaeda ties were based on information provided by Kurdish groups, who, as enemies of Ansar-al-Islam, should not be considered reliable. Furthermore, these sources unequivocally stated that intelligence analysts on both sides of the Atlantic remained unconvinced of the purported links between Iraq and al-Qaeda (see February 3-4, 2003). [INDEPENDENT, 2/3/2003; DAILY TELEGRAPH, 2/4/2003] Powell also claims that Iraq provided chemical or biological weapons training for two al-Qaeda associates beginning in December 2000. The claim is based on a September 2002 CIA document which had warned that its sources were of varying reliability and that the claim was not substantiated (see September 2002). The reports main source, Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, an al-Qaeda operative who offered the information to CIA interrogators while in custody, later recounts the claim (see February 14, 2004). [CNN, 9/26/2002; NEW YORK TIMES, 7/31/2004; NEWSWEEK, 7/5/2005] Larry Wilkerson, Powells chief of staff, will later say that neither he nor Powell ever received any dissent with respect to those lines indeed the entire section that now we know came from [al-Libi]. [NEWSWEEK, 11/10/2005] Senior US officials will admit to the New York Times and Washington Post after the presentation that the administration was not claiming that Saddam Hussein is exercising operational control of al-Qaeda. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/6/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/7/2003]
Iraq Has Missiles Capable of Flying Up to 1,200 Kilometers - Describing a photo of the al-Rafah weapons site, Powell says: As part of this effort, another little piece of evidence, Iraq has built an engine test stand that is larger than anything it has ever had. Notice the dramatic difference in size between the test stand on the left, the old one, and the new one on the right. Note the large exhaust vent. This is where the flame from the engine comes out. The exhaust vent on the right test stand is five times longer than the one on the left. The one of the left is used for short-range missiles. The one on the right is clearly intended for long-range missiles that can fly 1,200 kilometers. This photograph was taken in April of 2002. Since then, the test stand has been finished and a roof has been put over it so it will be harder for satellites to see whats going on underneath the test stand. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003] But according to the Associated Press, UN missile experts have reported inspecting al-Rafah at least five times since inspections resumed Nov. 27, have studied the specifications of the new test stand, regularly monitor tests at the installation, and thus far have reported no concerns. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 2/7/2003] Similarly, Reuters quotes Ali Jassem, an Iraqi official, who explains that the large stand referred to in Powells speech is not yet in operation and that its larger size is due to the fact that it will be testing engines horizontally. [REUTERS, 2/7/2003; GUARDIAN, 2/15/2003] Several days later, Blix will report to the UN that so far, the test stand has not been associated with a proscribed activity. [GUARDIAN, 2/15/2003]
Iraqis Attempted to Hide Evidence from Inspectors - Powell shows the UN Security Council satellite shots depicting what he claims are chemical weapons bunkers and convoys of Iraqi cargo trucks preparing to transport ballistic missile components from a weapons site just two days before the arrival of inspectors. We saw this kind of housecleaning at close to 30 sites, Powell explains. We must ask ourselves: Why would Iraq suddenly move equipment of this nature before inspections if they were anxious to demonstrate what they had or did not have? [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] But the photos are interpreted differently by others. An unnamed UN official and German UN Inspector Peter Franck both say the trucks in the photos are actually fire engines. [MERCURY NEWS (SAN JOSE), 3/18/2003; AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, 6/6/2003]
'Literally Removed the Crust of the Earth' - Another series of photostaken during the spring and summer of 2002show that Iraqis have removed a layer of topsoil from the al-Musayyib chemical complex. This piece of evidence, combined with information provided by an unnamed source, leads Powell to draw the following conclusion: The Iraqis literally removed the crust of the earth from large portions of this site in order to conceal chemical weapons evidence that would be there from years of chemical weapons activity. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] Showing another series of picturesone taken on November 10 (before inspections) and one taken on December 22Powell says that a guard station and decontamination truck were removed prior to the arrival of inspectors. Powell does not explain how he knows that the truck in the photograph was a decontamination truck. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] AP reporter Charles Hanley says that some of Powells claims that Iraq is hiding evidence are ridiculous. Powell says of a missile site, This photograph was taken in April of 2002. Since then, the test stand has been finished and a roof has been put over it so it will be harder for satellites to see whats going on underneath the test stand. Hanley later says, What he neglected to mention was that the inspectors were underneath, watching what was going on. [PBS, 4/25/2007]
Communication Intercepts Demonstrate Iraqi Attempts to Conceal Information from Inspectors - Powell plays recordings of three conversations intercepted by US intelligenceone on November 26, another on January 30, and a third, a few weeks before. The conversations suggest that the Iraqis were attempting to hide evidence from inspectors. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; LONDON TIMES, 2/6/2003; SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, 2/7/2003] Senior administration officials concede to the Washington Post that it was not known what military items were discussed in the intercepts. [WASHINGTON POST, 2/13/2003] Some critics argue that the intercepts were presented out of context and open to interpretation. [SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, 2/7/2003; SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, 2/9/2003] Others note that the conversations were translated from Arabic by US translators and were not analyzed or verified by an independent specialist. [NEWSDAY, 2/6/2003]
Biological Weapons Factories - Colin Powell says that US intelligence has firsthand descriptions that Iraq has 18 mobile biological weapons factories mounted on trucks and railroad cars. Information about the mobile weapons labs are based on the testimonies of four sourcesa defected Iraqi chemical engineer who claims to have supervised one of these facilities, an Iraqi civil engineer (see December 20, 2001), a source in a position to know, and a defected Iraqi major (see February 11, 2002). Powell says that the mobile units are capable of producing enough dry biological agent in a single month to kill several thousand people. He shows computer-generated diagrams and pictures based on the sources descriptions of the facilities. Powell says that according to the chemical engineer, during the late 1990s, Iraqs biological weapons scientists would often begin the production of pathogens on Thursday nights and complete the process on Fridays in order to evade UNSCOM inspectors whom Iraq believed would not conduct inspections on the Muslim holy day. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003; REUTERS, 2/11/2003] Powell tells the delegates, The source was an eyewitness, an Iraqi chemical engineer, who supervised one of these facilities. He actually was present during biological agent production runs. He was also at the site when an accident occurred in 1998. Twelve technicians died from exposure to biological agents. He displays models of the mobile trucks drawn from the sources statements. [CBS NEWS, 11/4/2007] Responding to the allegation, Iraqi officials will concede that they do in fact have mobile labs, but insist that they are not used for the development of weapons. According to the Iraqis, the mobile labs are used for food analysis for disease outbreaks, mobile field hospitals, a military field bakery, food and medicine refrigeration trucks, a mobile military morgue and mobile ice making trucks. [GUARDIAN, 2/5/2003; ABC NEWS, 5/21/2003] Iraqs explanation is consistent with earlier assessments of the UN weapons inspectors. Before Powells presentation, Hans Blix had dismissed suggestions that the Iraqis were using mobile biological weapons labs, reporting that inspections of two alleged mobile labs had turned up nothing. Two food-testing trucks have been inspected and nothing has been found, Blix said. And Ewen Buchanan, spokesman for the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, said, The outline and characteristics of these trucks that we inspected were all consistent with the declared purposes. [GUARDIAN, 2/5/2003; ABC NEWS, 5/21/2003]
'Curveball' Primary Source of Claims - Powells case is further damaged when it is later learned that one of the sources Powell cited, the Iraqi major, had been earlier judged unreliable by intelligence agents at the Defense Intelligence Agency (see February 11, 2002). In May 2002, the analysts had issued a fabricator notice on the informant, noting that he had been coached by [the] Iraqi National Congress (INC) (see May 2002). But the main source for the claim had been an Iraqi defector known as Curveball, who was initially believed to be the brother of a top aide to Ahmed Chalabi. The source claimed to be a chemical engineer who had helped design and build the mobile labs. His information was passed to Washington through Germanys intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), which had been introduced to the source by the INC. In passing along the information, the BND noted that there were various problems with the source. And only one member of the US intelligence community had actually met with the personan unnamed Pentagon analyst who determined the man was an alcoholic and of dubious reliability. Yet both the DIA and the CIA validated the information. [VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY, 8/22/2003; LOS ANGELES TIMES, 3/28/2004; KNIGHT RIDDER, 4/4/2004; NEWSWEEK, 4/19/2004; NEWSWEEK, 7/19/2004] Powell says that the US has three other intelligence sources besides Curveball for the mobile bioweapons labs. Powell will be infuriated to learn that none of those three sources ever corroborated Curveballs story, and sometimes their information contradicted each other. One of the three had failed a polygraph test and was determined to have lied to his debriefers. Another had already been declared a fabricator by US intelligence community, and had been proven to have mined his information off the Internet. [BUZZFLASH (.COM), 11/27/2007] In November 2007, Curveball is identified as Rafid Ahmed Alwan. Serious questions about Curveballs veracity had already been raised by the time of Powells UN presentation. He will later be completely discredited (see November 4, 2007).
Further Problems with Mobile Lab Claims - In addition to the inspectors assessments and the dubious nature of the sources Powell cited, there are numerous other problems with the mobile factories claim. Raymond Zilinskas, a microbiologist and former UN weapons inspector, argues that significant amounts of pathogens such as anthrax, could not be produced in the short span of time suggested in Powells speech. You normally would require 36 to 48 hours just to do the fermentation . The short processing time seems suspicious to me. He also says: The only reason you would have mobile labs is to avoid inspectors, because everything about them is difficult. We know it is possible to build themthe United States developed mobile production plants, including one designed for an airplanebut its a big hassle. Thats why this strikes me as a bit far-fetched. [WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] After Powells speech, Blix will say in his March 7 report to the UN that his inspectors found no evidence of mobile weapons labs (see March 7, 2003). [CNN, 3/7/2003; AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, 3/7/2003; CNN, 3/7/2003] Reporter Bob Drogin, author of Curveball: Spies, Lies and the Con Man Who Caused a War, says in 2007, y the time Colin Powell goes to the UN to make the case for war, he shows the world artists conjectures based on analysts interpretations and extrapolations of Arabic-to-German-to-English translations of summary debriefing reports of interviews with a manic-depressive defector whom the Americans had never met. [CIA director George] Tenet told Powell that Curveballs information was ironclad and unassailable. It was a travesty. [ALTERNET, 10/22/2007]
'Four Tons' of VX Toxin - Powell also claims that Iraq has four tons of VX nerve toxin. A single drop of VX on the skin will kill in minutes, he says. Four tons. Hanley later notes, He didnt point out that most of that had already been destroyed. And, on point after point he failed to point out that these facilities about which he was raising such alarm were under repeated inspections good, expert people with very good equipment, and who were leaving behind cameras and other monitoring equipment to keep us a continuing eye on it. [PBS, 4/25/2007]
Iraq is Developing Unmanned Drones Capable of Delivering Weapons of Mass Destruction - Powell asserts that Iraq has flight-tested an unmanned drone capable of flying up to 310 miles and is working on a liquid-fueled ballistic missile with a range of 745 miles. He plays a video of an Iraqi F-1 Mirage jet dispersing simulated anthrax. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] But the Associated Press will later report that the video was made prior to the 1991 Gulf War. Apparently, three of the four spray tanks shown in the film had been destroyed during the 1991 military intervention. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Imported Aluminum Tubes were Meant for Centrifuge - Powell argues that the aluminum tubes which Iraq had attempted to import in July 2001 (see July 2001) were meant to be used in a nuclear weapons program and not for artillery rockets as experts from the US Energy Department, the INR, and the IAEA have been arguing (see February 3, 2003) (see January 11, 2003) (see August 17, 2001) (see January 27, 2003). To support the administrations case, he cites unusually precise specifications and high tolerances for heat and stress. It strikes me as quite odd that these tubes are manufactured to a tolerance that far exceeds US requirements for comparable rockets, he says. Maybe Iraqis just manufacture their conventional weapons to a higher standard than we do, but I dont think so. Powell also suggests that because the tubes were anodized, it was unlikely that they had been designed for conventional use. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 3/8/2003] Powell does not mention that numerous US nuclear scientists have dismissed this claim (see August 17, 2001) (see September 23, 2002) (see December 2002). [ALBRIGHT, 10/9/2003] Powell also fails to say that Iraq has rockets identical to the Italian Medusa 81 mm rockets, which are of the same dimensions and made of the same alloy as the 3,000 tubes that were intercepted in July 2001 (see After January 22, 2003). [WASHINGTON POST, 8/10/2003] This had been reported just two weeks earlier by the Washington Post. [WASHINGTON POST, 1/24/2003] Moreover, just two days before, Powell was explicitly warned by the US State Departments Bureau of Intelligence and Research not to cite the aluminum tubes as evidence that Iraq is pursuing nuclear weapons (see February 3, 2003). [FINANCIAL TIMES, 7/29/2003]
Iraq Attempted to Acquire Magnets for Use in a Gas Centrifuge Program - Powell says: We have intelligence from multiple sources that Iraq is attempting to acquire magnets and high-speed balancing machines. Both items can be used in a gas centrifuge program to enrich uranium. In 1999 and 2000, Iraqi officials negotiated with firms in Romania, India, Russia and Slovenia for the purchase of a magnet production plant. Iraq wanted the plant to produce magnets weighing 20 to 30 grams. Thats the same weight as the magnets used in Iraqs gas centrifuge program before the Gulf War. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/6/2003] Investigation by the UNs International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] will demonstrate that the magnets have a dual use. IAEA Director Mohamed ElBaradei said a little more than a week before, on January 27, in his report to the Security Council: Iraq presented detailed information on a project to construct a facility to produce magnets for the Iraqi missile program, as well as for industrial applications, and that Iraq had prepared a solicitation of offers, but that the project had been delayed due to financial credit arrangements. Preliminary investigations indicate that the specifications contained in the offer solicitation are consistent with those required for the declared intended uses. However, the IAEA will continue to investigate the matter . (see January 27, 2003) [ANNAN, 1/27/2003 ] On March 7, ElBaradei will provide an additional update: The IAEA has verified that previously acquired magnets have been used for missile guidance systems, industrial machinery, electricity meters and field telephones. Through visits to research and production sites, reviews of engineering drawings and analyses of sample magnets, IAEA experts familiar with the use of such magnets in centrifuge enrichment have verified that none of the magnets that Iraq has declared could be used directly for a centrifuge magnetic bearing. (see March 7, 2003) [CNN, 3/7/2003]
Iraq Attempted to Purchase Machines to Balance Centrifuge Rotors - Powell states: Intercepted communications from mid-2000 through last summer show that Iraq front companies sought to buy machines that can be used to balance gas centrifuge rotors. One of these companies also had been involved in a failed effort in 2001 to smuggle aluminum tubes into Iraq. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/6/2003]
Powell Cites Documents Removed from Home of Iraqi Scientist Faleh Hassan - Powell cites the documents that had been found on January 16, 2003 by inspectors with the help of US intelligence at the Baghdad home of Faleh Hassan, a nuclear scientist. Powell asserts that the papers are a dramatic confirmation that Saddam Hussein is concealing evidence and not cooperating with the inspections. The 3,000 documents contained information relating to the laser enrichment of uranium (see January 16, 2003). [DAILY TELEGRAPH, 1/18/2003; ASSOCIATED PRESS, 1/18/2003; BBC, 1/19/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] A little more than a week later, in the inspectors February 14 update to the UN Security Council (see February 14, 2003), ElBaradei will say, While the documents have provided some additional details about Iraqs laser enrichment development efforts, they refer to activities or sites already known to the IAEA and appear to be the personal files of the scientist in whose home they were found. Nothing contained in the documents alters the conclusions previously drawn by the IAEA concerning the extent of Iraqs laser enrichment program. [GUARDIAN, 2/15/2003; BBC, 2/17/2003; ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq is Hiding Missiles in the Desert - Powell says that according to unidentified sources, the Iraqis have hidden rocket launchers and warheads containing biological weapons in the western desert. He further contends that these caches of weapons are hidden in palm groves and moved to different locations on a weekly basis. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] It will later be suggested that this claim was lifted whole from an Iraqi generals written account of hiding missiles in the 1991 war. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq Has Scud Missiles - Powell also says that according to unnamed intelligence sources, Iraq has a few dozen Scud-type missiles. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq Has Weapons of Mass Destruction - Secretary of State Colin Powell states unequivocally: We have satellite photos that indicate that banned materials have recently been moved from a number of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction facilities. There can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has biological weapons and the capability to rapidly produce more, many more. Elsewhere in his speech he says: We know that Saddam Hussein is determined to keep his weapons of mass destruction, is determined to make more. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; CNN, 2/5/2003]
Governments, Media Reaction Mixed - Powells speech will fail to convince many skeptical governments, nor will it impress many in the European media. But it will have a tremendous impact in the US media (see February 5, 2003 and After).
The Pentagon, citing top-secret satellite images, claims that some 250,000 Iraqi troops and 1,500 tanks are gathering on Saudi Arabias border in preparation for an attack. But two commercial Soviet satellite images of the border area, taken at the same time, obtained by Floridas St. Petersburg Times, show only an empty desert. The bulk of the mighty Iraqi army, said to number more than 500,000 in Kuwait and southern Iraq, couldnt be found, Newsday reports. [ST. PETERSBURG TIMES, 1/6/1991; CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, 9/6/2002; LOS ANGELES TIMES, 1/5/2003]
Early 2001: British Intelligence Tells CIA that It Is Not Convinced Curveball is a Reliable Source
MI6, Britains secret intelligence service, cables the CIA informing the agency that it is not convinced that Curveball is a wholly reliable source and that elements of [his] behavior strike us as typical of fabricators, according to a later investigation by the US Senate. The British also note that satellite images taken in 1997 when Curveball was presumably working at Djerf al Nadaf contradict his descriptions of the facility. [LOS ANGELES TIMES, 11/20/2005] However, the CIA ignores the British caveat, and after the Bush administration decides to invade Iraq, Curveballs information is used to bolster the case for war (see February 5, 2003). As reporter Bob Drogin, author of the 2007 book Curveball: Spies, Lies and the Con Man Who Caused a War, will say, [T]he CIA heard what it wanted to hear. It saw what it wanted to see. And it told the president what he wanted to hear. Time and again, intelligence officials discounted contradictory information, filled in gaps, and made up the dots to reach the conclusion they wanted. In part, they were caught up in the climate of fear after 9/11 and felt they couldnt afford to underestimate a possible threat. In part, there was a clear understanding by late 2002 that we were going to war and it would make no difference, and probably would hurt your career, if you tried to get in the way. But mostly, I think incompetence and poor leadership allowed unconfirmed and unreliable information to move up the chain of command. Those few intelligence officers who tried to raise red flags, or issue warnings, either were ignored or treated like heretics.
February 5, 2003: Powell Gives Fraudulent Presentation About Iraqi WMDs to UN
US Secretary of State Colin Powell presents the Bush administrations case against Saddam to the UN Security Council, in advance of an expected vote on a second resolution that the US and Britain hope will provide the justification to use military force against Iraq. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] At the insistence of Powell, CIA Director George Tenet is seated directly behind him to the right. It was theater, a device to signal to the world that Powell was relying on the CIA to make his case that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, Vanity Fair magazine will later explain. [BAMFORD, 2004, PP. 371-2; VANITY FAIR, 5/2004, PP. 232] In his speech before the Council, Powell makes the case that Iraq is in further material breach of past UN resolutions, specifically the most recent one, UN Resolution 1441 (see November 8, 2002). Sources cited in Powells presentation include defectors, informants, communication intercepts, procurement records, photographs, and detainees. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] Most of the allegations made by Powell are later demonstrated to be false. The defectors and other sources went unidentified, the Associated Press will later report. The audiotapes were uncorroborated, as were the photo interpretations. No other supporting documents were presented. Little was independently verifiable. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq's December 7 Declaration Was Inaccurate - Powell contends that Iraqs December 7 declaration was not complete. According to UN Resolution 1441 the document was supposed to be a currently accurate, full and complete declaration of all aspects of its programs to develop weapons of mass destruction. But Saddam has not done this, says Powell, who explains that Iraq has yet to provide sufficient evidence that it destroyed its previously declared stock of 8,500 liters of anthrax, as it claimed in the declaration. Furthermore, notes the secretary of state, UNSCOM inspectors had previously estimated that Iraq possessed the raw materials to produce as much as 25,000 liters of the virus. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003]
Iraq Has Ties to Al-Qaeda - Powell repeats earlier claims that Saddam Husseins government has ties to al-Qaeda. Powell focuses on the cases of the militant Islamic group Ansar-al-Islam and Abu Musab Zarqawi, a Jordanian-born Palestinian, who had received medical treatment in Baghdad during the summer of 2002 (see December 2001-Mid-2002). [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] However, just days before Powells speech, US and British intelligence officialsspeaking on condition of anonymitytold the press that the administrations allegations of Iraqi-al-Qaeda ties were based on information provided by Kurdish groups, who, as enemies of Ansar-al-Islam, should not be considered reliable. Furthermore, these sources unequivocally stated that intelligence analysts on both sides of the Atlantic remained unconvinced of the purported links between Iraq and al-Qaeda (see February 3-4, 2003). [INDEPENDENT, 2/3/2003; DAILY TELEGRAPH, 2/4/2003] Powell also claims that Iraq provided chemical or biological weapons training for two al-Qaeda associates beginning in December 2000. The claim is based on a September 2002 CIA document which had warned that its sources were of varying reliability and that the claim was not substantiated (see September 2002). The reports main source, Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi, an al-Qaeda operative who offered the information to CIA interrogators while in custody, later recounts the claim (see February 14, 2004). [CNN, 9/26/2002; NEW YORK TIMES, 7/31/2004; NEWSWEEK, 7/5/2005] Larry Wilkerson, Powells chief of staff, will later say that neither he nor Powell ever received any dissent with respect to those lines indeed the entire section that now we know came from [al-Libi]. [NEWSWEEK, 11/10/2005] Senior US officials will admit to the New York Times and Washington Post after the presentation that the administration was not claiming that Saddam Hussein is exercising operational control of al-Qaeda. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/6/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/7/2003]
Iraq Has Missiles Capable of Flying Up to 1,200 Kilometers - Describing a photo of the al-Rafah weapons site, Powell says: As part of this effort, another little piece of evidence, Iraq has built an engine test stand that is larger than anything it has ever had. Notice the dramatic difference in size between the test stand on the left, the old one, and the new one on the right. Note the large exhaust vent. This is where the flame from the engine comes out. The exhaust vent on the right test stand is five times longer than the one on the left. The one of the left is used for short-range missiles. The one on the right is clearly intended for long-range missiles that can fly 1,200 kilometers. This photograph was taken in April of 2002. Since then, the test stand has been finished and a roof has been put over it so it will be harder for satellites to see whats going on underneath the test stand. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003] But according to the Associated Press, UN missile experts have reported inspecting al-Rafah at least five times since inspections resumed Nov. 27, have studied the specifications of the new test stand, regularly monitor tests at the installation, and thus far have reported no concerns. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 2/7/2003] Similarly, Reuters quotes Ali Jassem, an Iraqi official, who explains that the large stand referred to in Powells speech is not yet in operation and that its larger size is due to the fact that it will be testing engines horizontally. [REUTERS, 2/7/2003; GUARDIAN, 2/15/2003] Several days later, Blix will report to the UN that so far, the test stand has not been associated with a proscribed activity. [GUARDIAN, 2/15/2003]
Iraqis Attempted to Hide Evidence from Inspectors - Powell shows the UN Security Council satellite shots depicting what he claims are chemical weapons bunkers and convoys of Iraqi cargo trucks preparing to transport ballistic missile components from a weapons site just two days before the arrival of inspectors. We saw this kind of housecleaning at close to 30 sites, Powell explains. We must ask ourselves: Why would Iraq suddenly move equipment of this nature before inspections if they were anxious to demonstrate what they had or did not have? [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] But the photos are interpreted differently by others. An unnamed UN official and German UN Inspector Peter Franck both say the trucks in the photos are actually fire engines. [MERCURY NEWS (SAN JOSE), 3/18/2003; AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, 6/6/2003]
'Literally Removed the Crust of the Earth' - Another series of photostaken during the spring and summer of 2002show that Iraqis have removed a layer of topsoil from the al-Musayyib chemical complex. This piece of evidence, combined with information provided by an unnamed source, leads Powell to draw the following conclusion: The Iraqis literally removed the crust of the earth from large portions of this site in order to conceal chemical weapons evidence that would be there from years of chemical weapons activity. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] Showing another series of picturesone taken on November 10 (before inspections) and one taken on December 22Powell says that a guard station and decontamination truck were removed prior to the arrival of inspectors. Powell does not explain how he knows that the truck in the photograph was a decontamination truck. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] AP reporter Charles Hanley says that some of Powells claims that Iraq is hiding evidence are ridiculous. Powell says of a missile site, This photograph was taken in April of 2002. Since then, the test stand has been finished and a roof has been put over it so it will be harder for satellites to see whats going on underneath the test stand. Hanley later says, What he neglected to mention was that the inspectors were underneath, watching what was going on. [PBS, 4/25/2007]
Communication Intercepts Demonstrate Iraqi Attempts to Conceal Information from Inspectors - Powell plays recordings of three conversations intercepted by US intelligenceone on November 26, another on January 30, and a third, a few weeks before. The conversations suggest that the Iraqis were attempting to hide evidence from inspectors. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; LONDON TIMES, 2/6/2003; SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, 2/7/2003] Senior administration officials concede to the Washington Post that it was not known what military items were discussed in the intercepts. [WASHINGTON POST, 2/13/2003] Some critics argue that the intercepts were presented out of context and open to interpretation. [SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, 2/7/2003; SYDNEY MORNING HERALD, 2/9/2003] Others note that the conversations were translated from Arabic by US translators and were not analyzed or verified by an independent specialist. [NEWSDAY, 2/6/2003]
Biological Weapons Factories - Colin Powell says that US intelligence has firsthand descriptions that Iraq has 18 mobile biological weapons factories mounted on trucks and railroad cars. Information about the mobile weapons labs are based on the testimonies of four sourcesa defected Iraqi chemical engineer who claims to have supervised one of these facilities, an Iraqi civil engineer (see December 20, 2001), a source in a position to know, and a defected Iraqi major (see February 11, 2002). Powell says that the mobile units are capable of producing enough dry biological agent in a single month to kill several thousand people. He shows computer-generated diagrams and pictures based on the sources descriptions of the facilities. Powell says that according to the chemical engineer, during the late 1990s, Iraqs biological weapons scientists would often begin the production of pathogens on Thursday nights and complete the process on Fridays in order to evade UNSCOM inspectors whom Iraq believed would not conduct inspections on the Muslim holy day. [NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003; REUTERS, 2/11/2003] Powell tells the delegates, The source was an eyewitness, an Iraqi chemical engineer, who supervised one of these facilities. He actually was present during biological agent production runs. He was also at the site when an accident occurred in 1998. Twelve technicians died from exposure to biological agents. He displays models of the mobile trucks drawn from the sources statements. [CBS NEWS, 11/4/2007] Responding to the allegation, Iraqi officials will concede that they do in fact have mobile labs, but insist that they are not used for the development of weapons. According to the Iraqis, the mobile labs are used for food analysis for disease outbreaks, mobile field hospitals, a military field bakery, food and medicine refrigeration trucks, a mobile military morgue and mobile ice making trucks. [GUARDIAN, 2/5/2003; ABC NEWS, 5/21/2003] Iraqs explanation is consistent with earlier assessments of the UN weapons inspectors. Before Powells presentation, Hans Blix had dismissed suggestions that the Iraqis were using mobile biological weapons labs, reporting that inspections of two alleged mobile labs had turned up nothing. Two food-testing trucks have been inspected and nothing has been found, Blix said. And Ewen Buchanan, spokesman for the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, said, The outline and characteristics of these trucks that we inspected were all consistent with the declared purposes. [GUARDIAN, 2/5/2003; ABC NEWS, 5/21/2003]
'Curveball' Primary Source of Claims - Powells case is further damaged when it is later learned that one of the sources Powell cited, the Iraqi major, had been earlier judged unreliable by intelligence agents at the Defense Intelligence Agency (see February 11, 2002). In May 2002, the analysts had issued a fabricator notice on the informant, noting that he had been coached by [the] Iraqi National Congress (INC) (see May 2002). But the main source for the claim had been an Iraqi defector known as Curveball, who was initially believed to be the brother of a top aide to Ahmed Chalabi. The source claimed to be a chemical engineer who had helped design and build the mobile labs. His information was passed to Washington through Germanys intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), which had been introduced to the source by the INC. In passing along the information, the BND noted that there were various problems with the source. And only one member of the US intelligence community had actually met with the personan unnamed Pentagon analyst who determined the man was an alcoholic and of dubious reliability. Yet both the DIA and the CIA validated the information. [VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY, 8/22/2003; LOS ANGELES TIMES, 3/28/2004; KNIGHT RIDDER, 4/4/2004; NEWSWEEK, 4/19/2004; NEWSWEEK, 7/19/2004] Powell says that the US has three other intelligence sources besides Curveball for the mobile bioweapons labs. Powell will be infuriated to learn that none of those three sources ever corroborated Curveballs story, and sometimes their information contradicted each other. One of the three had failed a polygraph test and was determined to have lied to his debriefers. Another had already been declared a fabricator by US intelligence community, and had been proven to have mined his information off the Internet. [BUZZFLASH (.COM), 11/27/2007] In November 2007, Curveball is identified as Rafid Ahmed Alwan. Serious questions about Curveballs veracity had already been raised by the time of Powells UN presentation. He will later be completely discredited (see November 4, 2007).
Further Problems with Mobile Lab Claims - In addition to the inspectors assessments and the dubious nature of the sources Powell cited, there are numerous other problems with the mobile factories claim. Raymond Zilinskas, a microbiologist and former UN weapons inspector, argues that significant amounts of pathogens such as anthrax, could not be produced in the short span of time suggested in Powells speech. You normally would require 36 to 48 hours just to do the fermentation . The short processing time seems suspicious to me. He also says: The only reason you would have mobile labs is to avoid inspectors, because everything about them is difficult. We know it is possible to build themthe United States developed mobile production plants, including one designed for an airplanebut its a big hassle. Thats why this strikes me as a bit far-fetched. [WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] After Powells speech, Blix will say in his March 7 report to the UN that his inspectors found no evidence of mobile weapons labs (see March 7, 2003). [CNN, 3/7/2003; AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, 3/7/2003; CNN, 3/7/2003] Reporter Bob Drogin, author of Curveball: Spies, Lies and the Con Man Who Caused a War, says in 2007, y the time Colin Powell goes to the UN to make the case for war, he shows the world artists conjectures based on analysts interpretations and extrapolations of Arabic-to-German-to-English translations of summary debriefing reports of interviews with a manic-depressive defector whom the Americans had never met. [CIA director George] Tenet told Powell that Curveballs information was ironclad and unassailable. It was a travesty. [ALTERNET, 10/22/2007]
'Four Tons' of VX Toxin - Powell also claims that Iraq has four tons of VX nerve toxin. A single drop of VX on the skin will kill in minutes, he says. Four tons. Hanley later notes, He didnt point out that most of that had already been destroyed. And, on point after point he failed to point out that these facilities about which he was raising such alarm were under repeated inspections good, expert people with very good equipment, and who were leaving behind cameras and other monitoring equipment to keep us a continuing eye on it. [PBS, 4/25/2007]
Iraq is Developing Unmanned Drones Capable of Delivering Weapons of Mass Destruction - Powell asserts that Iraq has flight-tested an unmanned drone capable of flying up to 310 miles and is working on a liquid-fueled ballistic missile with a range of 745 miles. He plays a video of an Iraqi F-1 Mirage jet dispersing simulated anthrax. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/6/2003] But the Associated Press will later report that the video was made prior to the 1991 Gulf War. Apparently, three of the four spray tanks shown in the film had been destroyed during the 1991 military intervention. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Imported Aluminum Tubes were Meant for Centrifuge - Powell argues that the aluminum tubes which Iraq had attempted to import in July 2001 (see July 2001) were meant to be used in a nuclear weapons program and not for artillery rockets as experts from the US Energy Department, the INR, and the IAEA have been arguing (see February 3, 2003) (see January 11, 2003) (see August 17, 2001) (see January 27, 2003). To support the administrations case, he cites unusually precise specifications and high tolerances for heat and stress. It strikes me as quite odd that these tubes are manufactured to a tolerance that far exceeds US requirements for comparable rockets, he says. Maybe Iraqis just manufacture their conventional weapons to a higher standard than we do, but I dont think so. Powell also suggests that because the tubes were anodized, it was unlikely that they had been designed for conventional use. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 2/5/2003; WASHINGTON POST, 3/8/2003] Powell does not mention that numerous US nuclear scientists have dismissed this claim (see August 17, 2001) (see September 23, 2002) (see December 2002). [ALBRIGHT, 10/9/2003] Powell also fails to say that Iraq has rockets identical to the Italian Medusa 81 mm rockets, which are of the same dimensions and made of the same alloy as the 3,000 tubes that were intercepted in July 2001 (see After January 22, 2003). [WASHINGTON POST, 8/10/2003] This had been reported just two weeks earlier by the Washington Post. [WASHINGTON POST, 1/24/2003] Moreover, just two days before, Powell was explicitly warned by the US State Departments Bureau of Intelligence and Research not to cite the aluminum tubes as evidence that Iraq is pursuing nuclear weapons (see February 3, 2003). [FINANCIAL TIMES, 7/29/2003]
Iraq Attempted to Acquire Magnets for Use in a Gas Centrifuge Program - Powell says: We have intelligence from multiple sources that Iraq is attempting to acquire magnets and high-speed balancing machines. Both items can be used in a gas centrifuge program to enrich uranium. In 1999 and 2000, Iraqi officials negotiated with firms in Romania, India, Russia and Slovenia for the purchase of a magnet production plant. Iraq wanted the plant to produce magnets weighing 20 to 30 grams. Thats the same weight as the magnets used in Iraqs gas centrifuge program before the Gulf War. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/6/2003] Investigation by the UNs International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] will demonstrate that the magnets have a dual use. IAEA Director Mohamed ElBaradei said a little more than a week before, on January 27, in his report to the Security Council: Iraq presented detailed information on a project to construct a facility to produce magnets for the Iraqi missile program, as well as for industrial applications, and that Iraq had prepared a solicitation of offers, but that the project had been delayed due to financial credit arrangements. Preliminary investigations indicate that the specifications contained in the offer solicitation are consistent with those required for the declared intended uses. However, the IAEA will continue to investigate the matter . (see January 27, 2003) [ANNAN, 1/27/2003 ] On March 7, ElBaradei will provide an additional update: The IAEA has verified that previously acquired magnets have been used for missile guidance systems, industrial machinery, electricity meters and field telephones. Through visits to research and production sites, reviews of engineering drawings and analyses of sample magnets, IAEA experts familiar with the use of such magnets in centrifuge enrichment have verified that none of the magnets that Iraq has declared could be used directly for a centrifuge magnetic bearing. (see March 7, 2003) [CNN, 3/7/2003]
Iraq Attempted to Purchase Machines to Balance Centrifuge Rotors - Powell states: Intercepted communications from mid-2000 through last summer show that Iraq front companies sought to buy machines that can be used to balance gas centrifuge rotors. One of these companies also had been involved in a failed effort in 2001 to smuggle aluminum tubes into Iraq. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; NEW YORK TIMES, 2/6/2003]
Powell Cites Documents Removed from Home of Iraqi Scientist Faleh Hassan - Powell cites the documents that had been found on January 16, 2003 by inspectors with the help of US intelligence at the Baghdad home of Faleh Hassan, a nuclear scientist. Powell asserts that the papers are a dramatic confirmation that Saddam Hussein is concealing evidence and not cooperating with the inspections. The 3,000 documents contained information relating to the laser enrichment of uranium (see January 16, 2003). [DAILY TELEGRAPH, 1/18/2003; ASSOCIATED PRESS, 1/18/2003; BBC, 1/19/2003; US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] A little more than a week later, in the inspectors February 14 update to the UN Security Council (see February 14, 2003), ElBaradei will say, While the documents have provided some additional details about Iraqs laser enrichment development efforts, they refer to activities or sites already known to the IAEA and appear to be the personal files of the scientist in whose home they were found. Nothing contained in the documents alters the conclusions previously drawn by the IAEA concerning the extent of Iraqs laser enrichment program. [GUARDIAN, 2/15/2003; BBC, 2/17/2003; ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq is Hiding Missiles in the Desert - Powell says that according to unidentified sources, the Iraqis have hidden rocket launchers and warheads containing biological weapons in the western desert. He further contends that these caches of weapons are hidden in palm groves and moved to different locations on a weekly basis. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003] It will later be suggested that this claim was lifted whole from an Iraqi generals written account of hiding missiles in the 1991 war. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq Has Scud Missiles - Powell also says that according to unnamed intelligence sources, Iraq has a few dozen Scud-type missiles. [ASSOCIATED PRESS, 8/9/2003]
Iraq Has Weapons of Mass Destruction - Secretary of State Colin Powell states unequivocally: We have satellite photos that indicate that banned materials have recently been moved from a number of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction facilities. There can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has biological weapons and the capability to rapidly produce more, many more. Elsewhere in his speech he says: We know that Saddam Hussein is determined to keep his weapons of mass destruction, is determined to make more. [US DEPARTMENT OF STATE, 2/5/2003; CNN, 2/5/2003]
Governments, Media Reaction Mixed - Powells speech will fail to convince many skeptical governments, nor will it impress many in the European media. But it will have a tremendous impact in the US media (see February 5, 2003 and After).