Probably, but for sure they gained huge experience and their overall AD performance was very strong (not cost effective, and not perfect, but very strong).
Iranian UAVs | News and Discussions
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Not very likely that it hit a mine since this was in Kherson on the Ukrainian side of the Dnieper river. The Gepard was allegedly supposed to be protecting the S-300s from Lancets. It got hit by a Lancet itself. Doesn't seem like it was active at the time, which explains why it couldn't detect the Lancet or its spotter drone. I've seen footage of Gepards shooting down Shahed/Geran drones, although the Lancet is smaller. Perhaps the Russians jammed it ?
So according to the latest info, Russians are claiming to have destroyed FIVE S-300 batteries yesterday. I've seen footage for 4 thus far. They also hit that Gepard, although it seems to have taken the hit pretty well considering. A BUK SAM was also destroyed by a Shahed drone. Several M777s were destroyed by Lancets. A Kalibr cruise missile struck a building in Mykolaiv where NATO & Ukrainian officers were meeting.
Then Russia launched a missile barrage at 6 Ukrainian cities. Ukraine claims that out of 23 missiles they shot down 21, although from the visual evidence that seems unlikely. This upcoming counter offensive is do or die for Ukraine, although the odds are certainly against them this time around.
They don't have a massive numerical advantage over the Russians, if any. Russia fires 10x as much artillery daily. Ukraine can't provide air cover to their troops anymore, reports claim their air defense missiles are nearly depleted & so are their artillery shells. Russia this time has set up 3 lines of defense in Zaporizhia, where Ukraine wants to cut off Russia's land bridge from Crimea to the Donbas. These include mine fields, tunnel/trench networks, pill boxes, tank traps/ditches, etc.
They have ATGMs (Kornet) with a range of more than 5 KM. They have moved up APFSDS ammunition to the front for their tanks. They have snipers with armor piercing rounds. Ukraine's tankers only have 5 weeks of training instead of 6 months. Russian mobilized personnel have been training for 6 months & have been mixed up with more experienced troops near the front.
Only time will tell but on paper, it doesn't look good for Ukraine.
Yeah. The issue is that from what I'm hearing, currently there is a shortage of Patriot missiles because of the Ukraine conflict. That's the issue with being reliant on foreign suppliers as opposed to producing your own.
Indeed, but I bet Ukraine and Saudi have infinitely more deployed Patriots than Iran has Bavar-373s deployed
US seizure of oil vessel triggered Iran tanker capture
Authorities in the US redirected ship of Iranian oil bound for China this week, prompting retaliation from TehranUS authorities ordered a tanker of Iranian crude oil to redirect towards the US in recent days, in a move officials believe was the trigger for Iran’s decision to capture a US-bound tanker on Thursday.
Three people briefed on the situation said the US had redirected a ship loaded with Iranian crude, originally destined for China, as Washington looks to step up enforcement of sanctions on Tehran.
They said the US Department of Justice seized the tanker, the Suez Rajan, under a court order with co-operation from at least one company involved with the vessel, after it took on board a cargo of Iranian oil. Iran’s navy unsuccessfully tried to pursue the tanker after it changed course for the US. The DoJ declined to comment.
The previously unreported US action towards the Suez Rajan shines a new light on Iran’s decision to capture the Advantage Sweet, a US-bound tanker of Kuwaiti crude that was chartered by Chevron. A US official said Thursday’s “seizure appears to be in retaliation for a prior US seizure of Iranian oil, which Iran recently attempted to get back but failed”.
The current location of the Suez Rajan is unclear: according to Spire Global, a satellite data company, it last broadcast its position to other vessels on the evening of April 22 as it was heading south-west past Madagascar towards the Cape of Good Hope.
The vessel is owned by Fleetscape, an affiliate of US-based Oaktree Capital. In response to previous queries about the Suez Rajan, Fleetscape said all operational decisions were made by Empire Navigation, the vessel’s Greek operators. Fleetscape and Empire have been approached for comment.
The Advantage Sweet Suezmax tanker that Iran seized was operating under a short-term charter for Chevron, one of the largest US oil companies. Its crew, all Indian nationals, are now being held by Iran. It was taken in the Gulf of Oman east of the Hormuz strait, according to US Central Command. Vessels and crew seized by Iran in the past have eventually been released, but often not for several months.
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An eye for an eye.
Also in complete contravention of any international laws, they seem so desperate that the sanctions are bypassed that they resort to violating international laws and tarnish their image for the sake of some oil barrel that Iran will resell with ease in days.US seizure of oil vessel triggered Iran tanker capture
Authorities in the US redirected ship of Iranian oil bound for China this week, prompting retaliation from Tehran
US authorities ordered a tanker of Iranian crude oil to redirect towards the US in recent days, in a move officials believe was the trigger for Iran’s decision to capture a US-bound tanker on Thursday.
Three people briefed on the situation said the US had redirected a ship loaded with Iranian crude, originally destined for China, as Washington looks to step up enforcement of sanctions on Tehran.
They said the US Department of Justice seized the tanker, the Suez Rajan, under a court order with co-operation from at least one company involved with the vessel, after it took on board a cargo of Iranian oil. Iran’s navy unsuccessfully tried to pursue the tanker after it changed course for the US. The DoJ declined to comment.
The previously unreported US action towards the Suez Rajan shines a new light on Iran’s decision to capture the Advantage Sweet, a US-bound tanker of Kuwaiti crude that was chartered by Chevron. A US official said Thursday’s “seizure appears to be in retaliation for a prior US seizure of Iranian oil, which Iran recently attempted to get back but failed”.
The current location of the Suez Rajan is unclear: according to Spire Global, a satellite data company, it last broadcast its position to other vessels on the evening of April 22 as it was heading south-west past Madagascar towards the Cape of Good Hope.
The vessel is owned by Fleetscape, an affiliate of US-based Oaktree Capital. In response to previous queries about the Suez Rajan, Fleetscape said all operational decisions were made by Empire Navigation, the vessel’s Greek operators. Fleetscape and Empire have been approached for comment.
The Advantage Sweet Suezmax tanker that Iran seized was operating under a short-term charter for Chevron, one of the largest US oil companies. Its crew, all Indian nationals, are now being held by Iran. It was taken in the Gulf of Oman east of the Hormuz strait, according to US Central Command. Vessels and crew seized by Iran in the past have eventually been released, but often not for several months.
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An eye for an eye.
Also the US doesn't respect its own "laws", they put IRGC in the same terrorist list as ISIS, yet, IRGCN and the USN meets a lot of time in the international waters, why the US warships and defenses aren't shooting at what they describe a terrorist group attacking our interests in the world?
This reminds me when they advocated to shut down ballistic missiles of Iran while Iran would be testing them "using naval based patriots and THAAD from Saudi Arabia" This didn't aged well
If the Zionist regime ever strikes Iran's nuclear facilities (unlikely), the only worthwhile response is to absolutely flatten their Negev nuclear reactor. If this spineless IRI fails to do that, they will be traitors of the highest order and by god I will join every protest to remove them.
Now, that possibility aside, let's assume they are not filthy selfish corrupt terrified liars. The entire Negev reactor area is around 500m x 500m, the dome of the reactor itself is 20m x 20m. Perfect size for missiles with 10-30m CEP. The reactor site is around 1100km from Iran's borders and 1200-1300km from the main known missile sites near the border with Iraq.
1) How many missiles / weapons are available that can travel that distance (1300km)?
2) How many would it take to achieve the objective (complete destruction of the reactor), accounting for weapon failure, interceptions, and number of impacts needed?
For 1):
- Solid fuel ballistic missiles: Haj Qasem (1400km), Kheybar Shekan (1450km), Sejjil-1/2 (2000km). Quantities: c. 100 (we have seen c. 20 KS and Sejjil is in operation since c. 2008, so 100 seems conservative overall).
- Liquid fuel ballistic missiles: Shahab-3 (1200-1750km), Rezvan (1400km), Emad (1700km), Ghadr (1350-1950km), Khorramshahr-1/2 (2000km). Quantities: 500-1000+ (Shahab in production since 2003).
- Cruise missiles: Hoveizeh (1350km), Paveh (1650km). Numbers: c. 50-100+.
- UAVs: Arash-2 (1600km), Shahed-136 (1350km). Numbers: 500-1000+ (800+ already exported to Russia).
ALBM is also possible but not proven. Shahed-171/191 also have sufficient range but not likely to be used. Did I miss any others?
For 2):
- Assume 20% failure rate
- Assume 90% interception rate
= for every 20 missiles fired at the reactor, 1-2 missiles will successfully impact the reactor.
- For a 20m x 20m target (400m2), assuming blast radius of only 10m (300m2) for each successful missile impact, just one successful accurate impact is sufficient to virtually wipe out the dome of the reactor. So even with those generous failure and interception rates, only 10-20 missiles are needed to virtually guarantee the destruction of the Negev nuclear reactor.
- The entire area is around 500,000m2, probably less than 100,000m2 of important targets = c. 300 impacts needed to flatten the entire area. But no need to do that, just to damage the buildings is enough, so let's say 100 impacts = c. 1000 missiles needed to significantly damage virtually every important building in the Negev nuclear site. But that's hugely disproportionate overkill and assumes 20% failure rate and 90% interception rate. In reality of fog of war those numbers will probably be much lower
Now, that possibility aside, let's assume they are not filthy selfish corrupt terrified liars. The entire Negev reactor area is around 500m x 500m, the dome of the reactor itself is 20m x 20m. Perfect size for missiles with 10-30m CEP. The reactor site is around 1100km from Iran's borders and 1200-1300km from the main known missile sites near the border with Iraq.
1) How many missiles / weapons are available that can travel that distance (1300km)?
2) How many would it take to achieve the objective (complete destruction of the reactor), accounting for weapon failure, interceptions, and number of impacts needed?
For 1):
- Solid fuel ballistic missiles: Haj Qasem (1400km), Kheybar Shekan (1450km), Sejjil-1/2 (2000km). Quantities: c. 100 (we have seen c. 20 KS and Sejjil is in operation since c. 2008, so 100 seems conservative overall).
- Liquid fuel ballistic missiles: Shahab-3 (1200-1750km), Rezvan (1400km), Emad (1700km), Ghadr (1350-1950km), Khorramshahr-1/2 (2000km). Quantities: 500-1000+ (Shahab in production since 2003).
- Cruise missiles: Hoveizeh (1350km), Paveh (1650km). Numbers: c. 50-100+.
- UAVs: Arash-2 (1600km), Shahed-136 (1350km). Numbers: 500-1000+ (800+ already exported to Russia).
ALBM is also possible but not proven. Shahed-171/191 also have sufficient range but not likely to be used. Did I miss any others?
For 2):
- Assume 20% failure rate
- Assume 90% interception rate
= for every 20 missiles fired at the reactor, 1-2 missiles will successfully impact the reactor.
- For a 20m x 20m target (400m2), assuming blast radius of only 10m (300m2) for each successful missile impact, just one successful accurate impact is sufficient to virtually wipe out the dome of the reactor. So even with those generous failure and interception rates, only 10-20 missiles are needed to virtually guarantee the destruction of the Negev nuclear reactor.
- The entire area is around 500,000m2, probably less than 100,000m2 of important targets = c. 300 impacts needed to flatten the entire area. But no need to do that, just to damage the buildings is enough, so let's say 100 impacts = c. 1000 missiles needed to significantly damage virtually every important building in the Negev nuclear site. But that's hugely disproportionate overkill and assumes 20% failure rate and 90% interception rate. In reality of fog of war those numbers will probably be much lower
Blue In Green
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I have to laugh at this one,it took them this long to actually acknowledge that yes these are indeed iranian manufactured engines.
Begs the question: How many components that we are lead to believe Iran smuggles in or gets from other sources are actually built domestically from scratch?
Sineva
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Its good to see that there are now efforts being made to remove identifiable markings/serial numbers etc..that can potentially be used to try and track n trace components,both iranian produced as well as imported.
This is well overdue,but iran needs to make greater efforts in this regard to deny the enemy easy access to this sort of intelligence.
Ukraine & Saudi Arabia likely have more Patriot missiles than Iran has Bavar missiles. The issue is that no one knows how many Bavar SAMs Iran has built. However I doubt if either Ukraine or the Saudis have more air defense systems than Iran has overall.
Currently Ukraine is rapidly running out of missiles for its air defense network. In fact there are western sources who claim that by the end of this month, or at the very latest the next, Ukraine will certainly run out of missiles for its S-300s. The vast majority of Ukraine's air defense network is made up of legacy, Soviet era gear.
Keep in mind, yesterday Russia destroyed three S-300 batteries, one Gepard, one Buk, several M777s, Shahed destroyed several military bases. At this rate it's not sustainable for Ukraine.
Although today Ukraine launched several kamikaze drones at Sevastopol & one seems to have hit the mark, completely wiping out a Russian oil facility which supplied the Russian navy with fuel.
44°35'1.02"N, 33°25'2.22"E
Currently Ukraine is rapidly running out of missiles for its air defense network. In fact there are western sources who claim that by the end of this month, or at the very latest the next, Ukraine will certainly run out of missiles for its S-300s. The vast majority of Ukraine's air defense network is made up of legacy, Soviet era gear.
Keep in mind, yesterday Russia destroyed three S-300 batteries, one Gepard, one Buk, several M777s, Shahed destroyed several military bases. At this rate it's not sustainable for Ukraine.
Although today Ukraine launched several kamikaze drones at Sevastopol & one seems to have hit the mark, completely wiping out a Russian oil facility which supplied the Russian navy with fuel.
44°35'1.02"N, 33°25'2.22"E
In some cases, it's cheaper to buy parts from a foreign manufacturer than it is to produce specific components domestically, simply because said manufacturer might be producing a product in the millions while Iran for example might only require a quantity of thousands. Economy of scale comes into play here.
Also sanctions make it extremely difficult for Iran to generate any returns from exporting components that it could potentially produce domestically. In some cases it simply ends up costing much less to import the product(s) required. From what I've read, Iran does produce its own copies of the motors which are used in the drones.
According to the article below, three quarters of the components found in some Iranian drones are made in the US. In regards to the Mohajer-6, they're saying that half the parts are US made and a quarter Japanese. I'm not saying that this is either true or false. You can be the judge, but keep in mind these claims are being made by Ukrainian intelligence and verified by some Ukrainian "non-profit"
www.middleeasteye.net
From the article above:
The majority of parts found in downed Iranian drones in Ukraine are manufactured in the US, Europe and Western allies, according to new Ukrainian intelligence documents that call into question the success of US efforts to curtail the proliferation of Iranian drones.
The revelation puts a spotlight on Iran's success at building up a potent arms industry on the back of cheap, commercially available component parts that can be obtained from the West, while evading US sanctions.
Three-quarters of the component parts of Iranian drones bought by Russia and downed in Ukraine were made in the US, according to documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal from the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a Kyiv-based nonprofit that verified research by Ukrainian military intelligence.
In one case, the researchers were able to study an Iranian Mohajer-6 drone that was brought down by Kyiv intact after being hacked mid-flight. About half the drone’s component parts were made by firms based in the US, while a third came from companies in Japan, according to the report.
This article is also relevant & came out yesterday
There's also claims that Iran has sent Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles to Russia, however I don't believe it because we haven't seen any evidence yet. I'm guessing that Iran might have sold Russia specific components that they required, but that's just my guess.
Also sanctions make it extremely difficult for Iran to generate any returns from exporting components that it could potentially produce domestically. In some cases it simply ends up costing much less to import the product(s) required. From what I've read, Iran does produce its own copies of the motors which are used in the drones.
According to the article below, three quarters of the components found in some Iranian drones are made in the US. In regards to the Mohajer-6, they're saying that half the parts are US made and a quarter Japanese. I'm not saying that this is either true or false. You can be the judge, but keep in mind these claims are being made by Ukrainian intelligence and verified by some Ukrainian "non-profit"
Iranian drones contain parts from the US and potentially Israel, report says
More than half the component parts found in Iranian drones came from the US, revealing Tehran's success at evading sanctions
www.middleeasteye.net
From the article above:
The majority of parts found in downed Iranian drones in Ukraine are manufactured in the US, Europe and Western allies, according to new Ukrainian intelligence documents that call into question the success of US efforts to curtail the proliferation of Iranian drones.
The revelation puts a spotlight on Iran's success at building up a potent arms industry on the back of cheap, commercially available component parts that can be obtained from the West, while evading US sanctions.
Three-quarters of the component parts of Iranian drones bought by Russia and downed in Ukraine were made in the US, according to documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal from the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a Kyiv-based nonprofit that verified research by Ukrainian military intelligence.
In one case, the researchers were able to study an Iranian Mohajer-6 drone that was brought down by Kyiv intact after being hacked mid-flight. About half the drone’s component parts were made by firms based in the US, while a third came from companies in Japan, according to the report.
This article is also relevant & came out yesterday
There's also claims that Iran has sent Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles to Russia, however I don't believe it because we haven't seen any evidence yet. I'm guessing that Iran might have sold Russia specific components that they required, but that's just my guess.
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I read an article more than a year ago which claimed that during the Saudi-Yemeni war, in the later phase of course, that Qatar was smuggling German made drone engines to Iran. It could be that some use German engines, while some use Iranian engines. I don't think Iran would say no to free German engines.
Anyways recently Ukrainians have been using this Chinese drone, the Mugin-5. They rig them with explosives & fly them towards Russian targets. It's very basic, but it seems to still be useful. It costs $10,000 USD. Shipping & handling, insurance, import fees, etc could easily double the price though. Then whoever is purchasing them for Ukraine is likely making some kickback so...
Anyways recently Ukrainians have been using this Chinese drone, the Mugin-5. They rig them with explosives & fly them towards Russian targets. It's very basic, but it seems to still be useful. It costs $10,000 USD. Shipping & handling, insurance, import fees, etc could easily double the price though. Then whoever is purchasing them for Ukraine is likely making some kickback so...
I have to laugh at this one,it took them this long to actually acknowledge that yes these are indeed iranian manufactured engines.
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Sineva
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I dont doubt that iran also makes maximum use of available cots,both local and foreign,as well as critical locally built components,indeed I think its that sort of philosophy that has allowed iran to build the formidable mic that it has.In some cases, it's cheaper to buy parts from a foreign manufacturer than it is to produce specific components domestically, simply because said manufacturer might be producing a product in the millions while Iran for example might only require a quantity of thousands. Economy of scale comes into play here.
Also sanctions make it extremely difficult for Iran to generate any returns from exporting components that it could potentially produce domestically. In some cases it simply ends up costing much less to import the product(s) required. From what I've read, Iran does produce its own copies of the motors which are used in the drones.
According to the article below, three quarters of the components found in some Iranian drones are made in the US. In regards to the Mohajer-6, they're saying that half the parts are US made and a quarter Japanese. I'm not saying that this is either true or false. You can be the judge, but keep in mind these claims are being made by Ukrainian intelligence and verified by some Ukrainian "non-profit"
Iranian drones contain parts from the US and potentially Israel, report says
More than half the component parts found in Iranian drones came from the US, revealing Tehran's success at evading sanctions
From the article above:
The majority of parts found in downed Iranian drones in Ukraine are manufactured in the US, Europe and Western allies, according to new Ukrainian intelligence documents that call into question the success of US efforts to curtail the proliferation of Iranian drones.
The revelation puts a spotlight on Iran's success at building up a potent arms industry on the back of cheap, commercially available component parts that can be obtained from the West, while evading US sanctions.
Three-quarters of the component parts of Iranian drones bought by Russia and downed in Ukraine were made in the US, according to documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal from the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission (NAKO), a Kyiv-based nonprofit that verified research by Ukrainian military intelligence.
In one case, the researchers were able to study an Iranian Mohajer-6 drone that was brought down by Kyiv intact after being hacked mid-flight. About half the drone’s component parts were made by firms based in the US, while a third came from companies in Japan, according to the report.
This article is also relevant & came out yesterday
There's also claims that Iran has sent Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles to Russia, however I don't believe it because we haven't seen any evidence yet. I'm guessing that Iran might have sold Russia specific components that they required, but that's just my guess.
I think its that same approach that has allowed it to transfer things such as the ability to manufacture entry level drone tech to its allies in the region.
Stryker1982
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One of the human aspects of war is the crew may leave the vehicle at any point, perhaps resting nearby, in which case the system is basically a hunk of metal. Could've been abandoned or unoccupied or the crew were resting. Either way, it must be targeted.
It's not that the Ukrainians are incompetent, it's that they receive minimal training. For the Challenger 2 & Leopard 2 tanks, they have taken a crash course lasting 5 weeks, whereas the standard training duration for those tanks is 3-6 months. And even after several months, that tanker is considered a newbie & is usually assigned to a more experienced crew. Then it takes time to learn how to work with their team as their improve their skillset over time. Also they have to learn how to coordinate with other tanks, call in air support, artillery, combined arms, etc. It all takes time. I don't think that 5 weeks is sufficient, but who knows
When it comes to the Saudis, the biggest factor that stifles their military potential is the fact that officers are not promoted based on their competence or capabilities, but rather family ties & personal loyalties. They've witnessed what has historically transpired in Arab states such as Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, where their monarchies were overthrown in military coups by strong willed & charismatic leaders. As a result the Saudis do not want a military that can take its own initiative. Every order must be followed to the letter & nothing can be done without receiving prior approval from higher ups in a rigid bureaucracy . This is because the Saudi ruling elites are more afraid of an internal military coup then they are of any external threats.
aryobarzan said: UKis do not know how to use sophisticated Western systems ..Reminds me of Saudis.. Stupid operators make a bad reputation for capable systems
When it comes to the Saudis, the biggest factor that stifles their military potential is the fact that officers are not promoted based on their competence or capabilities, but rather family ties & personal loyalties. They've witnessed what has historically transpired in Arab states such as Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, where their monarchies were overthrown in military coups by strong willed & charismatic leaders. As a result the Saudis do not want a military that can take its own initiative. Every order must be followed to the letter & nothing can be done without receiving prior approval from higher ups in a rigid bureaucracy . This is because the Saudi ruling elites are more afraid of an internal military coup then they are of any external threats.
aryobarzan said: UKis do not know how to use sophisticated Western systems ..Reminds me of Saudis.. Stupid operators make a bad reputation for capable systems
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