NADIM.NAZI
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Iranian Space program
- Thread starter SOHEIL
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PeeD
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The performance level of the Salman second stage is state of the art.
Upscaled and elongated variant from 1m dia. to 1,5m as well as a rather low increase in lenght can produce 2 unidiameter first and second stages, that together with the Salman as 3rd stage create a miniature ICBM.
At this technology level
- a 1,5m dia. first stage with 5m lenght
- a 1,5m dia. second stage at 3,5m lenght
- plus the 1m dia. Salman as third stage at 3m lenght
Would create a ~14m long <30 ton roadmobile light ICBM with 500-1000kg payload.
A ultimate, survivable second strike capable strategic asset.
Such a technology level is on pair with Bulava and Tident II.
Only at such technology level a Ghadr can be converted to a SLV of 18m total lenght.
Upscaled and elongated variant from 1m dia. to 1,5m as well as a rather low increase in lenght can produce 2 unidiameter first and second stages, that together with the Salman as 3rd stage create a miniature ICBM.
At this technology level
- a 1,5m dia. first stage with 5m lenght
- a 1,5m dia. second stage at 3,5m lenght
- plus the 1m dia. Salman as third stage at 3m lenght
Would create a ~14m long <30 ton roadmobile light ICBM with 500-1000kg payload.
A ultimate, survivable second strike capable strategic asset.
Such a technology level is on pair with Bulava and Tident II.
Only at such technology level a Ghadr can be converted to a SLV of 18m total lenght.
Shams313
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Someone can explain whats going in,those nerds says they r decoding the signals from most likely noor satelite...
Hack-Hook
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well wonder what they decoding , the satellite subsystem is not turned on yet
QWECXZ
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I just see a bunch of codes in hexadecimals which doesn't show anything meaningful. It reminds me of OllyDBG for software reverse engineering (not that it's related though). What are they decoding exactly?
arashkamangir
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The guys is likely using a software defined radio setup to decode telemetry sent by general non mil sats. He is expecting Iranian sat to start transmitting over American continent as other allied nation sats would ...
QWECXZ
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Exactly. I doubt that the satellite broadcasts anything over the US. Why would it? We have no receiver stations there. It probably just captures data passively until it passes an area where our stations can receive what it has stored in its memory and give it new commands.
Messerschmitt
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TheImmortal
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Fair enough, but that remains a guess. I agree that it has to become all solid, but I'm not convinced by your argument about thickness. I mean thickness is definitely important in many areas of life, but a thin 5-stage rocket can go further than a really thick single-stage rocket.
Yes, but generally the more advanced the rocket the less than stages (if all other things are same).
Think about it this way. Let’s say there are 2 planes each same size, build, material, etc.
let’s say one plane has 4 engines and can go 5000 KM at 500 km/hr.
Let’s say 2nd plane has only 2 engines but can go 7500 KM at 750km/hr.
Which plane is more advanced? The answer would be the 2nd plane.
So a 3 stage ICBM that carries the same payload and has same range/payload/stats as 2 stage ICBM is considered less advanced.
North Korea tried to simple build many stages on their liquid fueled Taepong-2 missile that ended up being a failed project. Compare the two projects
Taepong-2
H-15
Which missile is more advanced?
500-1K payload for an ICBM is a waste of a project if non nuclear.
If Iran plans to ever build conventional ICBM than it needs payloads of 3K KG (6-500kg MIRVs or 3-1000 KG MIRVS) in its warhead.
This would mean that 1 ICBM could do about as much damage as the Al-Assad base strike considering higher re entry speed.
QWECXZ
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Yes, I know what you are saying but we weren't discussing about how advanced it was. We are discussing whether it can carry a heavier payload to a far enough distance to be considered an IRBM/ICBM. You said you guessed that it couldn't carry a 600kg payload further than 2,000 kilometers and I was curious to know how you came up with that number. Then the issue of thickness was brought up and I said it's not only girth that matters, but length matters too
It's all a pointless phallic discussion to be honest. lolAnyway, you can always increase the range of a ballistic missile by reducing the mass of the missile and adding more stages to it. Iran has made advances in both of these factors by employing carbon fiber in its missiles and acquiring the know-how for multi-stage rockets.
Surenas
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Iran's First Successful Military Space Launch Should Worry Israel
After days of deliberations and evaluations, Israeli and western experts concluded that Iran’s most recent satellite launch, which took place last week, was successful. Iran managed to put four satellites into orbit in the past, but they were short-lived. It took 13 attempts, four of which only entered orbit for a short time, and nine of which failed completely, but this time it seems that the new satellite will last much longer – likely years – before disintegrating. Iran’s military spy satellite is now orbiting the earth at an approximate altitude of 450 kilometers.
“It is indeed an important accomplishment for the Iranian space program in general and its military in particular,” an Israeli security source, who asked not to be named, told Haaretz. “The most significant result is its symbolism, the fact that the launch didn’t fail.”
But there is a caveat. Most experts emphasize that still Iran has a long way to go before it could upgrade its long-range missiles to deliver nuclear warheads. Israeli military officials refused to comment on the launch, and only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned it, describing it as a threat to Israeli and international security.
The launch inaugurated the new Shahrood site in Semnan Province’s Markazi Desert, 400 kilometers east of Tehran. The Iranian satellite was launched by a two-stage missile, a more advanced version of the Safir first-generation rocket, which placed Iran’s first civilian satellite into orbit. The first stage uses a liquid propellant similar to the standard Iranian long-range Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 1200-2000 kilometers, making it capable of reaching any point in Israel.
But it is the second stage that highlights the Islamic Republic’s technological progress – and military ambitions. It uses a solid propellant, the process of making which is more advanced than a liquid propellant. Its advantage lies in the fueling process. Like a car’s gas tank, it can take time to fill a rocket with liquid propellant. Within that time, enemy intelligence agencies could take notice. Solid propellant allows for quicker, more covert fueling.
There is also the notable fact that because the launcher was a mobile Shahab-3 adapted for a longer rocket, there was no launch umbilical tower – the tower of scaffolding frequently used to service a spacecraft on the launchpad – setting it apart from Iran's past “civilian” launches.
“This accentuates the military aspect of the system” says Dr. Uzi Rubin. Rubin is a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS), and is considered one of the most distinguished missile analysts in the Middle East. Between 1991 and 1999, he served as head of Israel's Missile Defense Organization, and in that capacity oversaw the development of Israel's Arrow anti-missile defense system.
“The space launcher and the satellite are assembled and fueled inside an underground shelter in a horizontal position,” he explains. “Once assembled and fueled, it can emerge and drive to any roughly prepared patch of ground, be erected, launch and quickly retreat to the shelter.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were the ones to announce the launch, further removing the civilian mask from Iran’s initiative. “Iran has only one missile and space program, and it is military in nature,” says the Israeli security source.
The fact that the IRGC is running missile and space programs of its own, and the very existence of the Shahrood spaceport, have been known for years; this is the first time they are being conceding to by Iran. It’s further, and crucial, evidence that the military and economic powerhouse that is the IRGC – at this point a “state within a state” – is expanding its influence over the country.
“I tend to believe that this launch was a development test to examine new military satellite launch procedures, with more to follow” Rubin says.
The timing of the launch coincides with the coronavirus crisis, which has hit Iran particularly hard, with an official death toll of nearly 6,000, whose real figure is likely three times higher. But it takes years to prepare for a launch of this sort, and one can assume that once the launcher and satellite were ready – both of them were brand new – the IRGC went ahead and carried out the launch.
Although the timing is likely a coincidence, Rubin says that it still sends a powerful message: “The very act of launching a military satellite in the midst of the coronavirus crisis is a statement of self-confidence and perseverance by the Ayatollahs.” It is also an evidence of the IRGC and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s determination to take risks despite ongoing tension between the country and the United States, and the painful sanctions put in place by the latter, which are crippling the Iranian economy.
At the same time, the new space launcher seems to have the same capabilities as the Safir: a small orbiting satellite with a payload of up to 50 kg (110 lbs) to low Earth orbit. “It’s military use is limited,” Rubin explains, adding that its altitude is too low to be used for communication. “It can be us only for reconnaissance, but with limited performance.”
The combination of the low altitude and the small payload – other countries’ satellites can hold tons – bars Iran’s satellite from being equipped with sophisticated cameras. Its smaller cameras can only send low-resolution imagery, similar to that of Google Earth, to the ground station. The Iranian payload is reminiscent of the first Israeli Ofek series satellite, which was launched over 30 years ago.
But by joining the exclusive list of about a dozen countries to have carried out orbital launches, Iran has demonstrated that it is quickly closing its technological gaps. If we soon see an Iranian system of operational military space assets, Rubin says, “I wouldn’t be surprised.” This worries Israel; the launch sends a clear message that despite U.S. objections, Iran is making headway in its plans to upgrade its long-range missiles, making them capable of delivering nuclear warheads if and when it decides to develop them.
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...ry-space-launch-should-worry-israel-1.8798308
After days of deliberations and evaluations, Israeli and western experts concluded that Iran’s most recent satellite launch, which took place last week, was successful. Iran managed to put four satellites into orbit in the past, but they were short-lived. It took 13 attempts, four of which only entered orbit for a short time, and nine of which failed completely, but this time it seems that the new satellite will last much longer – likely years – before disintegrating. Iran’s military spy satellite is now orbiting the earth at an approximate altitude of 450 kilometers.
“It is indeed an important accomplishment for the Iranian space program in general and its military in particular,” an Israeli security source, who asked not to be named, told Haaretz. “The most significant result is its symbolism, the fact that the launch didn’t fail.”
But there is a caveat. Most experts emphasize that still Iran has a long way to go before it could upgrade its long-range missiles to deliver nuclear warheads. Israeli military officials refused to comment on the launch, and only Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned it, describing it as a threat to Israeli and international security.
The launch inaugurated the new Shahrood site in Semnan Province’s Markazi Desert, 400 kilometers east of Tehran. The Iranian satellite was launched by a two-stage missile, a more advanced version of the Safir first-generation rocket, which placed Iran’s first civilian satellite into orbit. The first stage uses a liquid propellant similar to the standard Iranian long-range Shahab-3 missile, which has a range of 1200-2000 kilometers, making it capable of reaching any point in Israel.
But it is the second stage that highlights the Islamic Republic’s technological progress – and military ambitions. It uses a solid propellant, the process of making which is more advanced than a liquid propellant. Its advantage lies in the fueling process. Like a car’s gas tank, it can take time to fill a rocket with liquid propellant. Within that time, enemy intelligence agencies could take notice. Solid propellant allows for quicker, more covert fueling.
There is also the notable fact that because the launcher was a mobile Shahab-3 adapted for a longer rocket, there was no launch umbilical tower – the tower of scaffolding frequently used to service a spacecraft on the launchpad – setting it apart from Iran's past “civilian” launches.
“This accentuates the military aspect of the system” says Dr. Uzi Rubin. Rubin is a research fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy (JISS), and is considered one of the most distinguished missile analysts in the Middle East. Between 1991 and 1999, he served as head of Israel's Missile Defense Organization, and in that capacity oversaw the development of Israel's Arrow anti-missile defense system.
“The space launcher and the satellite are assembled and fueled inside an underground shelter in a horizontal position,” he explains. “Once assembled and fueled, it can emerge and drive to any roughly prepared patch of ground, be erected, launch and quickly retreat to the shelter.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were the ones to announce the launch, further removing the civilian mask from Iran’s initiative. “Iran has only one missile and space program, and it is military in nature,” says the Israeli security source.
The fact that the IRGC is running missile and space programs of its own, and the very existence of the Shahrood spaceport, have been known for years; this is the first time they are being conceding to by Iran. It’s further, and crucial, evidence that the military and economic powerhouse that is the IRGC – at this point a “state within a state” – is expanding its influence over the country.
“I tend to believe that this launch was a development test to examine new military satellite launch procedures, with more to follow” Rubin says.
The timing of the launch coincides with the coronavirus crisis, which has hit Iran particularly hard, with an official death toll of nearly 6,000, whose real figure is likely three times higher. But it takes years to prepare for a launch of this sort, and one can assume that once the launcher and satellite were ready – both of them were brand new – the IRGC went ahead and carried out the launch.
Although the timing is likely a coincidence, Rubin says that it still sends a powerful message: “The very act of launching a military satellite in the midst of the coronavirus crisis is a statement of self-confidence and perseverance by the Ayatollahs.” It is also an evidence of the IRGC and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s determination to take risks despite ongoing tension between the country and the United States, and the painful sanctions put in place by the latter, which are crippling the Iranian economy.
At the same time, the new space launcher seems to have the same capabilities as the Safir: a small orbiting satellite with a payload of up to 50 kg (110 lbs) to low Earth orbit. “It’s military use is limited,” Rubin explains, adding that its altitude is too low to be used for communication. “It can be us only for reconnaissance, but with limited performance.”
The combination of the low altitude and the small payload – other countries’ satellites can hold tons – bars Iran’s satellite from being equipped with sophisticated cameras. Its smaller cameras can only send low-resolution imagery, similar to that of Google Earth, to the ground station. The Iranian payload is reminiscent of the first Israeli Ofek series satellite, which was launched over 30 years ago.
But by joining the exclusive list of about a dozen countries to have carried out orbital launches, Iran has demonstrated that it is quickly closing its technological gaps. If we soon see an Iranian system of operational military space assets, Rubin says, “I wouldn’t be surprised.” This worries Israel; the launch sends a clear message that despite U.S. objections, Iran is making headway in its plans to upgrade its long-range missiles, making them capable of delivering nuclear warheads if and when it decides to develop them.
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...ry-space-launch-should-worry-israel-1.8798308
PeeD
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Yes, that would be the final step.
As interim step a small arsenal of single MaRV'ed ICBM could be the goal for two main reasons:
- Survivable due to miniaturized size in for example a ship container
- If nuclear breakout is done, that small single warhead arsenal is sufficient to create a counter value deterrence.
Now MaRV on ICBM is quite tricky but if Iran achieves it one day, we can talk about the heavy solid you described (reduced survivability) and once that happens we can think about a very heavy silo/cavern liquid to throw >10 MaRVs in one shot (something that could move things towards intercontinental conventional counter force).
The incredible survivability a shipping container launched ICBM would create should be the objective now and the Salman proves the feasibility technologically.
Iran is not at the design sophistication level of the Trident II or Bulava but at basic material/technological level.
Hack-Hook
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The second stage is smaller than Simorgh second stage so you must expect it can carry less than what Simorgh was supposed to carry.
It's not strange if it can carry weight as heavy as what sapphire was capable of but in twice the altitude.
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