Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

[drmeson]

If we go by the Biden's admin and Naftali Bennet's hysteria during last week the current stockpile of 60+ % enriched U235 is somewhere between 45-50 KG by last known quantities before IAEA was kicked out. 50 Kg of 60% enriched quantities means 33KG of 90 % which is HEU weapon-grade. Just using this quantity Iran can currently produce 4 x HEU grade (90+%) devices of 8-10 KT Yield or 6 x 5 Kt devices. Delivery Mechanisms can be UCAVs, BM/CM arsenal launched from underground bases etc. Overall Iran has 71 Tons of produced U234 (Higher than Pakistan, DPRK, Israel) which means Iran can enrich some 4.8 Tons of HEU U235. Even if Iran uses some 25 % of that quantity production it means 90-100 Fission devices x 8-20 KT yield. Almost identical to the suspected Israeli nuclear stockpile itself.

This is why JCPOA is still hanging and nobody will do anything. Israeli airforce cant reach Iran and if they fire 5-10 Jericho II/III at the surface of underground facilities, IRGC will fire 20 x Sejjil-2/3 at Dimona in return. Iranian main enrichment underground sites can even survive a surface nuclear blast so what will some 5-10 Jerichos achieve other than 20 x Sejjil strikes on Dimona in return? They are TVC MaRV's, Iron dome wont catch them. It's a dangerous proposition for adversaries.

If such circumstances occur that Israel and Iran go hand to hand, my own assumption is that IRGC may take the Israeli route here. They will enrich enough to have some 40 x 10-20 KT devices, test them underground in already reported tunnels, and won't announce it. Adversaries will know it and that is it. Will anything change in the world by that ? Big no because it is all politics and Iran is known for its calm political-diplomatic approach. Even DPRK acts more responsible post its nuclear capability. Oil trade will continue, and slowly global acceptance will follow.

............

BTW how many here know that according to a CIA study, Shahi Iran was supposed to have tested nuclear weapons in the late 70s to early 80s.

 

[jauk]

If we go by the Biden's admin and Naftali Bennet's hysteria during last week the current stockpile of 60+ % enriched U235 is somewhere between 45-50 KG by last known quantities before IAEA was kicked out. 50 Kg of 60% enriched quantities means 33KG of 90 % which is HEU weapon-grade. Just using this quantity Iran can currently produce 4 x HEU grade (90+%) devices of 8-10 KT Yield or 6 x 5 Kt devices. Delivery Mechanisms can be UCAVs, BM/CM arsenal launched from underground bases etc. Overall Iran has 71 Tons of produced U234 (Higher than Pakistan, DPRK, Israel) which means Iran can enrich some 4.8 Tons of HEU U235. Even if Iran uses some 25 % of that quantity production it means 90-100 Fission devices x 8-20 KT yield. Almost identical to the suspected Israeli nuclear stockpile itself.

This is why JCPOA is still hanging and nobody will do anything. Israeli airforce cant reach Iran and if they fire 5-10 Jericho II/III at the surface of underground facilities, IRGC will fire 20 x Sejjil-2/3 at Dimona in return. Iranian main enrichment underground sites can even survive a surface nuclear blast so what will some 5-10 Jerichos achieve other than 20 x Sejjil strikes on Dimona in return? They are TVC MaRV's, Iron dome wont catch them. It's a dangerous proposition for adversaries.

If such circumstances occur that Israel and Iran go hand to hand, my own assumption is that IRGC may take the Israeli route here. They will enrich enough to have some 40 x 10-20 KT devices, test them underground in already reported tunnels, and won't announce it. Adversaries will know it and that is it. Will anything change in the world by that ? Big no because it is all politics and Iran is known for its calm political-diplomatic approach. Even DPRK acts more responsible post its nuclear capability. Oil trade will continue, and slowly global acceptance will follow.

............

BTW how many here know that according to a CIA study, Shahi Iran was supposed to have tested nuclear weapons in the late 70s to early 80s.

Thanks. Do you have comparative data on stockpiles pre JCPOA, JCPOA, and today?

 

[drmeson]

Thanks. Do you have comparative data on stockpiles pre JCPOA, JCPOA, and today?

I think with JCPOA 2.5 KG of 60% enriched was allowed

Current status: Israeli FM said that they know 60 kg of 60% is in underground facilities which means if they enrich it further to 90 % HEU for weaponization then they would around 40 KG of it, this implies like 8 x 5 KT devices.

IAEA before being kicked out disclosed 43.5 KG of 60 % I think. If we do the math based upon IAEA and Israeli estimates, the current capability is between 6-10 devices of 6-8 KT yield.

If they use Lashkar Abad Laser enrichment facility which JCPOA prohibited because it enriches at mad speed then this quantity can double within weeks.


... JCPOA will ensure Iranian hydrocarbon will reach EU, and Iran will behave along with allies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. Iran will also stay away from Russia/China to an extent, no nuclear weaponization VS The above.

So we know why despite Iranian stubborn behavior, JCPOA is still a thing.

 

[TheImmortal]

That is how the world works. Only civilized countries should have nukes. Iran spreads terror across the Middle East.

Your country has the highest incidence of mass rape, rape, sexual assault, etc in the world.

Up until recently over 50% of your country was in poverty and a significant number lacked access to toilets/showers.

So your civilized comment is highly ironic.

 

[lydian fall]

Thank you...


That is how the world works. Only civilized countries should have nukes. Iran spreads terror across the Middle East.

We have raped Indians during the whole history

I am not joking

Nader shah and our previous kings really raped you in masses

Battle of Karnal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[raptor22]

Israeli airforce cant reach Iran and if they fire 5-10 Jericho II/III at the surface of underground facilities, IRGC will fire 20 x Sejjil-2/3 at Dimona in return. Iranian main enrichment underground sites can even survive a surface nuclear blast so what will some 5-10 Jerichos achieve other than 20 x Sejjil strikes on Dimona in return? They are TVC MaRV's, Iron dome wont catch them. It's a dangerous proposition for adversaries.

It's highly likely that in case of war the USA would join isreal even others might help them like Azarbayejan and KSA, UAE and Bahrain , beside base on latest info probably Adirs could reach Iran .. however be it true or not taking your foe's capabilities lightly or underestimate them is more dangerous then the enemy itself.

 

[thesaint]

Thank you...


That is how the world works. Only civilized countries should have nukes. Iran spreads terror across the Middle East.

So countries where civilization supposedly started are not civilized? People of civilized countries do not excrete in the fields openly, they do have toilets.

 

[sha ah]

Civilized according to whom ? Your white masters in London ? So when the US invaded Iraq and killed 1 million Iraqis was that civilized ? What about Afghanistan ? Yemen ? Millions of children are starving right now. Very civilized they are huh ? When they colonized India and milked u for every drop for 100 years while u can to bow down to their monarchy, was it to civilize India ? Did they "civilize" you well enough ? I mean right now only 1/3rd of your population can even read or write , in Iran the literacy rate is more than 90% so I guess by those standards Iran is more civilized than India no ? Or is it just up to your masters in London, Washington and Tel Aviv ?

Thank you...


That is how the world works. Only civilized countries should have nukes. Iran spreads terror across the Middle East.

I don't think the US has the balls to put ground troops on Iranian soil. Also little micro states like Baku, UAE would get pummeled. If you ask me Iran might as well go nuclear. Nothing to lose and security is too precious. Trump will likely be re-elected after Biden who can barely speak cohesively so Iran has to be prepared for a maximum level of aggression in the near future.

It's highly likely that in case of war the USA would join isreal even others might help them like Azarbayejan and KSA, UAE and Bahrain , beside base on latest info probably Adirs could reach Iran .. however be it true or not taking your foe's capabilities lightly or underestimate them is more dangerous then the enemy itself.

 

[drmeson]

So countries where civilization supposedly started are not civilized? People of civilized countries do not excrete in the fields openly, they do have toilets.

Rajoo rallying in Quad against Iran (on the internet only)

We have raped Indians during the whole history

I am not joking

Nader shah and our previous kings really raped you in masses

Battle of Karnal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The thread will get derailed if I start up here with Iranian farmer invasion of what became Indus valley, let alone later mauling Iranic- Turkic race delivered to sub-continent.

Indians are good sane friends. Let's just deal with this stupid troll as an individual here. We have zero problem with India otherwise.

 

[aryobarzan]

Rajoo rallying in Quad against Iran (on the internet only)

The thread will get derailed if I start up here with Iranian farmer invasion of what became Indus valley, let alone later mauling Iranic- Turkic race delivered to sub-continent.

Indians are good sane friends. Let's just deal with this stupid troll as an individual here. We have zero problem with India otherwise.

I have a feeling this fellow is not real Indian but a "juice"....

My juice meter is usually correct..lol

 

[drmeson]

Fatal blow to JCPOA if Iran doesn’t restore access within 3-4 weeks

ROFL-COPTER. I thought IAEA does not "tolerate" any breach of the monitoring process. Here they are begging for access again even after a month. The 60% enriched stockpile of 60 kgs can double to 120 Kg in that much time. Are they bozos or what is going on ?

 

[jauk]

I have a feeling this fellow is not real Indian but a "juice"....

My juice meter is usually correct..lol

Thanks. Hey folks, please don’t assume who’s who here or assume they’re from a certain place. Also as Iranians we avoid diminishing an entire country or acting uncivilized towards an entire people. The language I see in this forum bothers me like screeching nails on a chalkboard. Not cool. Not Iranian.

 

[drmeson]

It's highly likely that in case of war the USA would join isreal even others might help them like Azarbayejan and KSA, UAE and Bahrain , beside base on latest info probably Adirs could reach Iran .. however be it true or not taking your foe's capabilities lightly or underestimate them is more dangerous then the enemy itself.

regional countries will never ever get their hands dirty because US may come for a fake strike which will mean nothing to the nuclear program and they will leave like they always do. What happens after? you will have a nuclear-armed Iran with its oil propelling trillion USD economy to power its military machine to deal with local facilitators. It ain't no Saddams Iraq after all. This is the reason no regional country openly calls for strikes against nuclear sites except Israel. You would not hear PGCC sheikhdoms or Erdogan+Baku talking in this language that tel Aviv uses. Just yesterday how many regional countries abstained from voting against Iran for IAEA resolution? Shows you how many will actually support US

 

[jauk]

Now we're coming to our senses. This Lewis dude is a candy 'researcher' that has finally come to the right conclusions (almost) with all the wrong reasoning over the past 15 years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537840557137055744

 

[jauk]

Now we're coming to our senses. This Lewis dude is a candy 'researcher' that has finally come to the right conclusions (almost) with all the wrong reasoning over the past 15 years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1537840557137055744

This is yet another reason, amongst many, Iran is already armed and has been for quite a while. My conjecture is Iran has been armed before the moment the first construction shovel hit the earth at Natanz which is way before 2002. Needless to say, Iran had working centrifuges far before Natanz was completed. Bluntly, Iran has been undeclared since at least 2002 which fits well with the dog and pony show we’ve all been witnessing since.