Iranian Economy.....news and discussions

[lydian fall]

 

[LegionnairE]

IRI-Navy will continue to be aged and older, but will come up with a new ship every once and a while that will display the latest growth in military industry but quanity production is a whole other matter with such a limited budget and tough economic times. They are building their first ship with a good AESA radar, but how many can be built realistically? This trend will maintain

it looks like the entire surface combatant fleet except for the Sina class and Moudge class needs to start phasing out NOW.
They are way over their econommical lifespans.

IRGC-Navy is clearly being focused on by top branch. IRGC which never had ship building experience is building multiple Catamarans at the same time, and actually building them with good amount of what is considered the normal among a modern navy. Previously their naval capabilities were limited to anti-shipping based missiles, FACs, and small missile boats, clearly they are shifting priorities into a blue water navy, but without the "high seas" part of a blue navy. Therefore, its evident that IRGC wants a bigger presence in the Gulf of Oman and Northern Indian ocean.

I looked into the Souleimani class in detail, very interesting design, it looks comparable to our Kılıç class in tonnage and role but I don't understand the idea behind having 3 different types of AShM on a single boat. You should pick one that's best and standardize it. It would make it much simpler to train the crews too. Same with guns, it makes little sense to have both 30mm and 20mm guns it's a little weird to me. You could have just one 30mm front and one 30mm aft and be done with it. (I'm guessing that the 30mm guns are stabilized?)

Anyway this is probably prohibitively expensive, Iran needs a good, modern FAC design that they can standardize between the two branches. There's no sense in having 30 different types of missile boats

recap: Modernize Moudge class, Simplify Souleimani class, start phasing out ships left from 70ies
and most importantly, design a new, modern, standard FAC and make a lot of them

The ground forces however............far behind standard. As long as their is no impression of any land threat. Little will change in this area.

I still remember the Iranian tank that was made of M48 parts.. most of the equipment is in dire need of replacement.
ah I remember its name, it was called Zoulfiqar, back in the day we had a good laugh about it.

I think the worst thing about the iranian defense industry is the over-reliance on reverse-engineering. It's ruining everything.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

CB of Iran just got more executive power

https://www.farsnews.ir/news/14011126000785/

The excuse is to fix "private" and other banks wrong doings.
March 4 , 2023

 

[lydian fall]

@WebMaster

 

[aryobarzan]

Iran now world's 13th wheat producer .​

Iran’s wheat production rises 28% in 2022: FAO​

1. Economy

March 5, 2023 - 14:3


TEHRAN - Wheat production in Iran has increased by 28 percent in 2022, putting the Islamic Republic in 13th place among the world’s top producers of the strategic grain, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s latest Food Outlook report.
Based on the said report, Iranian farmers managed to produce 13 million tons of wheat in 2022, 2.9 million tons more than the figure for the previous year in which the total production stood at 10.1 million tons, IRNA reported.
According to FAO, Iran was the world’s 14th largest wheat producer in 2021.
The organization has also predicted that Iran will produce 13 million tons of wheat in 2023, which will not change compared to 2022.
Despite concerns about the impact of the Ukraine war on the world's agricultural production in 2022, the world's wheat production this year increased by two percent compared to the previous year and reached 794 million tons. In 2021, the total wheat production in the world was estimated at 778 million tons.
China was the largest wheat producer in 2022 with a production of 137.7 million tons, followed by the European Union with 134.5 million tons and India with 106.8 million tons.
Russia, the U.S., Australia, Canada, Pakistan, Ukraine, Turkey, the UK, and Kazakhstan were placed higher than Iran and ranked fourth to twelfth.
In a previous report released in June 2022, FAO saw cereal production in Iran to grow 34.2 percent in 2022, while the imports of such products were seen to drop 25 percent.

 

[Raghfarm007]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1632385316332904448

 

[Stryker1982]

I looked into the Souleimani class in detail, very interesting design, it looks comparable to our Kılıç class in tonnage and role but I don't understand the idea behind having 3 different types of AShM on a single boat. You should pick one that's best and standardize it. It would make it much simpler to train the crews too. Same with guns, it makes little sense to have both 30mm and 20mm guns it's a little weird to me. You could have just one 30mm front and one 30mm aft and be done with it. (I'm guessing that the 30mm guns are stabilized?)

Anyway this is probably prohibitively expensive, Iran needs a good, modern FAC design that they can standardize between the two branches. There's no sense in having 30 different types of missile boats

recap: Modernize Moudge class, Simplify Souleimani class, start phasing out ships left from 70ies
and most importantly, design a new, modern, standard FAC and make a lot of them

The prominent issue that must be understood is who is the opponent? What is military if not just a weaponized arm of diplomacy. With this outlook and foreign policy, the main adversary is the United States. In this case, one should ask themselves, is it worth putting 10s of millions of dollars in an investment per ship against the worlds largest navy. With this outlook it becomes clear what to do. While technology was a barrier and theirs a clear goal of having some decent naval presence within a few hundred kilometers of the shores, ultimately, these ships would be mass targeted in a painful attack and probably will not last long outside of peaceful times. Hence, I am in serious doubt these ships will be getting phased out anytime soon, they will receive upgrades & new large ships being built in large quantities for the regular navy is slow.

Personally I'm not sure about the specific reasons in armament, and why they put lower range ones as well. It looks alterable though.

Demonstrably, any conflict which is most likely to be with the USA + Israel, would be purely a long range fires wars. Theirs no land invasion, no maneuver warfare, no border. Therefore, the focus has been improving long range fires in multiple ways, improving both quantity and rate of fire, and improving quality for countering anti-missile defense and improving own air defense. In some ways, the airforce does play a limited role as a deliverer of theater long range munitions (which are carried by Su-24's), but beyond this their is significant difficulty in dealing with USAF & IAF capabilities in the air. And so, you see some areas have been neglected.

Allegedly, Iran will acquire some Su-35's possibly with additional squadrons when produced, and attack helicopters from Russia. Since no country in the world operates Su-35's without also having S-400s, I can assume those are part of an arms agreement as well. But still even with a good quantity of Su-35's it will only be enough for regional issues, not for joint USAF + IAF, for this a 5th gen fighter from Russia is needed. If the guys in Iran feel like they've satisfied the situation with long range fires capability, I can see the pivot to Naval and AF needs (which appears to be the case with foreign procurement and new ship design) at least to keep up with some neighbors with tense relationships like Saudi Arabia, but long range fires will remain the backbone because conventional warfare doesn't work against super powers.

I still remember the Iranian tank that was made of M48 parts.. most of the equipment is in dire need of replacement.
ah I remember its name, it was called Zoulfiqar, back in the day we had a good laugh about it.

I think the worst thing about the iranian defense industry is the over-reliance on reverse-engineering. It's ruining everything.

The Zoulfiqar doesn't look like it went into production for obvious reasons. Sometimes, prototypes are built, but never acquired or ordered by the Army because of unsatisfactory performance or doesn't fit the needs. while seemingly useless, it does help provide designers experience in tank building and tooling so one day something viable and useful can be designed or upgraded. What appears to be the direction forward in atleast tank work, is the Karrar tank which is a major upgrade on the existing stocks of T-72S, which are in large availability in Iran. I should note, I have not seen a large quantity of them, which may suggest it has not been in production yet because of funding and lack of need at the moment. I think its on the shelf for now.

Reverse-engineering was a important source of information back in the day. Something like a fire control system has to either be developed or copied from another nation. Naturally, all the military technology leads of the day even 10 years ago was in the western world, none of which would sell any sort of component to Iran. So they had to find ways around that problem. Our military industry in history was always behind standard, right now the era of reverse-engineering is largely over, and we are seeing indigenous designs, like what you saw with the Catamaran cannot be RE'd which shows major improvement on the quality of engineers and designers, and this is being reflected in other areas. The number of copied products have dropped alot, but not completely. Anywhere that is behind, you follow a process of copy -> upgrade systems in the copy -> Develop your own system with your upgrades + continuous improvement. This is lengthy process but paid some dividends over the years. It was not long ago where a Hawk system was copied for the first time, and now an assortment of AD systems have been developed in such a short time. You have to start somewhere right?

In my opinion, as long as the US is the main enemy, it is unlikely we will see a large and modern airforce in Iran or large and modern naval force. What we could see however is a Airforce and Naval force sufficiently large and modern enough for the Arab regional opponents, but nothing beyond that since frankly, seems like a waste.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Iran has alot of FACs but they do not have CIWS, and they desperately need upgrades which will probably be seen in the future as CIWS becomes more common and available. Essentially you have a large fleet of small ships that need upgrades which will take some time. Let alone spending the resources to build big frigates.

The bulk of FAC's in Iran's arsenal are too reduced in size to carry CIWS weapons. Nor do they really need any. They are coastal craft designed for swarm attacks and hit and run strikes against enemy vessels in the Persian Gulf, all in the framework of elaborate tactics combining multiple simultaneously fielded weapons systems. As such, they are covered by land based air defence along the coastline, and also by Shahid Soleimani corvettes. CIWS is an out of place consideration in this context, so is the notion of desperately needed upgrades on these FAC's.

Beyond the above considerations, anyone holding the belief that these small craft need to be phased out would be mistaken. As a matter of fact their numbers keep increasing, as new batches are delivered on a regular basis.

So in comparison with Turkiye, Iran won't have a modernized and large blue navy anytime soon, but within its own waters and around the waters surround Iran like the Northern Indian ocean, it will be equipped well if things continue at this rate.

Iranian naval forces are well equipped already and have been for quite some time. More capable than the Turkish navy to face the global 'superpower' and that's saying something.

The ground forces however............far behind standard. As long as their is no impression of any land threat. Little will change in this area.

Individual requirements turn standards into a variable criterion.

Since no country in the world operates Su-35's without also having S-400s, I can assume those are part of an arms agreement as well.

There's no correlation. China's the sole foreign operator of the Su-35.

The Zoulfiqar doesn't look like it went into production for obvious reasons.

In fact if there's a candidate to fulfill the laughing stock role, Turkey's Altay MBT would come before Zolfaqar. Talked about for twenty years or more and still nothing much to show for, despite the fact that key components are set to be sourced from abroad.

the Karrar tank which is a major upgrade on the existing stocks of T-72S,

This is yet to be established. Karrars may as well be built from scratch.

I have not seen a large quantity of them, which may suggest it has not been in production yet because of funding and lack of need at the moment. I think its on the shelf for now.

Karrars have been used in war games with full add-on components. Likely they're in production.

Our military industry in history was always behind standard,

Iran's defence industries have always stood out by their degree of autonomy and the innovative doctrinal approach they mirror.

right now the era of reverse-engineering is largely over, and we are seeing indigenous designs, like what you saw with the Catamaran cannot be RE'd which shows major improvement on the quality of engineers and designers, and this is being reflected in other areas. The number of copied products have dropped alot, but not completely. Anywhere that is behind, you follow a process of copy -> upgrade systems in the copy -> Develop your own system with your upgrades + continuous improvement. This is lengthy process but paid some dividends over the years. It was not long ago where a Hawk system was copied for the first time, and now an assortment of AD systems have been developed in such a short time. You have to start somewhere right?

In this regard Iranians don't need to justify themselves to holders of conventional views and practitioners of conformist thinking stemming from political subordination to the USA. China's defense industries practiced reverse-engineered too, where is China now? Nothing more needs to be said.

 

[aryobarzan]

The low income housing is starting to produce actual places to live.

Low-income families provided with apartments​

1. Society

March 5, 2023 - 18:16


TEHRAN – In a ceremony on Sunday, a total of 23,000 apartments were delivered to low-income families across the country.
The Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation has constructed the apartments. President Ebrahim Raisi handed over three apartments, IRNA reported.
A total of 25 trillion rials (nearly $50 million) has been proposed to provide housing for the underprivileged in the budget bill for the next [Iranian calendar] year (starting March 21), Morteza Bakhtiari, head of the Foundation said in August 2022.
The Foundation also plans to build 360,000 houses over the next four years.
The project will start next year and 90,000 houses will be built for the deprived annually, 60,000 of which will be built in cities and 30,000 in villages.
A memorandum of understanding has been signed with the Mostazafan Foundation and Housing Foundation regarding the construction of 10,000 housing units in villages and cities with less than 25,000 populations.
Another memorandum of understanding has been inked with the Basij and Housing Foundation to build 40,000 houses.

 

[LegionnairE]

The prominent issue that must be understood is who is the opponent? What is military if not just a weaponized arm of diplomacy. With this outlook and foreign policy, the main adversary is the United States. In this case, one should ask themselves, is it worth putting 10s of millions of dollars in an investment per ship against the worlds largest navy. With this outlook it becomes clear what to do. While technology was a barrier and theirs a clear goal of having some decent naval presence within a few hundred kilometers of the shores, ultimately, these ships would be mass targeted in a painful attack and probably will not last long outside of peaceful times. Hence, I am in serious doubt these ships will be getting phased out anytime soon, they will receive upgrades & new large ships being built in large quantities for the regular navy is slow.

I understand where you're coming from and I sympathize, but when I look at a ship like this:

IRIS Alvand (71) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The only thing I see is a floating graveyard that's going to sink with a single harpoon or an exocet hit. These ships have to be phased out and Iran has to realize that a small and capable navy is much better than a big but incapable one. And a single good ship design is better than dozens of mediocre ones.

This two-headed beast is working against you. You need to put all of your engineers on a single project and make a good FAC.

Something like this should be in Iran's capabilities to build:

Gepard-class fast attack craft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Also what's with the Iranian members and autistic laughing? Did I say something funny?
This is what anybody with half a brain would say.

 

[LegionnairE]

Iranian naval forces are well equipped already and have been for quite some time. More capable than the Turkish navy to face the global 'superpower' and that's saying something.

I hope the Iranian leaders aren't as dumb as you. For the sake of your country.

 

[SalarHaqq]

I hope the Iranian leaders aren't as dumb as you. For the sake of your country.

The Iranian leadership is smart enough to have chosen the correct path in building up Iran's defenses. Hence why USA military aggression has been deterred to this day.

Said path differs radically from the conformist approach followed by nations the USA is not threatening with military action. Conformist approach which would expose those implementing it to instant obliteration at the hands of USA military in case of a conflict.

Your assertion is contradicted by recorded history alone, whose lessons you fail to draw.

 

[LegionnairE]

The Iranian leadership is smart enough to have chosen the correct path in building up Iran's defenses. Hence why USA military aggression has been deterred to this day.

Said path differs radically from the conformist approach followed by nations the USA is not threatening with military action. Conformist approach which would expose those implementing it to instant obliteration at the hands of USA military in case of a conflict.

Your assertion is contradicted by recorded history alone, whose lessons you fail to draw.

If it was "deterred" Souleimani would be alive today. Only thing they fear is their own voters, not Iranian resistance.

What I said has nothing to do with conformity. I didn't suggest that Iran should build big frigates and amphibious assault ships like Turkey.
You should go back and read my posts again.

The idea that Iranian navy is well equipped and ready for a confrontation with the USN is insane

 

[SalarHaqq]

If it was "deterred" Souleimani would be alive today.

It changed nothing to the geostrategic balance, so the interjection's pointless. The USA regime has been deterred from the types of actions which would actually make a difference in bringing Iran to her knees.

Had Iran been deprived of deterrence power, she'd been invaded like Iraq, bombed like Libya or have a large scale insurgency pitted against her like Syria.

Only thing they fear is their own voters, not Iranian resistance.

Their voters wouldn't give a toss if Iran didn't have the capability to cause serious damage to USA interests and above all, to boost the American body bag industry in a manner unprecedented since the Vietnam war.

What I said has nothing to do with conformity. I didn't suggest that Iran should build big frigates and amphibious assault ships like Turkey.
You should go back and read my posts again.

You reacted with an ad hominem to a statement of mine where I highlighted how the Turkish navy would be less suited than the Iranian one to confront the Yanks.

The idea that Iranian navy is well equipped and ready for a confrontation with the USN is insane

Again, history and present ground reality contradict these assertions. No aggression by the USN against Iran = they doubt their ability to do it at politically and/or economically sustainable cost.

 

[LegionnairE]

the Turkish navy would be less suited than the Iranian one to confront the Yanks.

Nonsense. Turkish navy has FACs with long range missiles, a real air defense and most importantly the biggest, most modern submarine force in the mediterranean. You're only gangsta until torpedoes start heading towards your aircraft carrier.

This threat will only get bigger with Reis class. We have even better midget submarine options in the shape of STM 500. TN so far chose not to procure any.

Again, history and present ground reality contradict these assertions. No aggression by the USN against Iran = they doubt their ability to do it at politically and/or economically sustainable cost.

They haven't attacked us yet, which means they can't is a broken logic. They are winning on the political and economical theaters of war. They have no reason to militarily attack you. That would only unite Iran. It doesn't mean that they can'.