Iranian Chill Thread

[jauk]

I didn’t say the ground war would be easy or even successful just necessary for Israel to establish dominance again. If you’re calling up 100K+ soldiers and pulling reservists from bases all over the world back home (5K from Greece yesterday) then you aren’t doing it just to walk around your own cities.

Hamas can make it brutal, just look at what a rag tag group of militants did in East Ghouta suburb of Damascus for 5+ years.

Yeah, let’s see what unfolds. Nothing has happened yet. Yahoo is under stress. Perhaps unsustainably so.

 

[TheImmortal]

I don't dispute Iran has the capacity to develop such weapons, just that there is no evidence Iran has done so.

Do you want Iran to make announcement? Assad still has chemical warheads. It’s not a big deal.

The point of such weapons would be to deter Israeli escalation to nuclear warheads (we can debate the likely effectiveness of that separately), but that only works if Israel believes Iran actually has - and is willing to use - those weapons. Currently, I do not believe that is the case.

Mossad knows Iran has it. Just like they know Assad has it. Assad sat on the largest arsenal for decades.

In any event, 10 BMs tipped with chemical warheads will not create anywhere near the impact of even one nuclear warhead, so those numbers will need to be adjusted upwards, dramatically.

Iran cannot nuke Israel without killing Palestinians from nuclear fall out and depending on the winds the radioactive would blow over the Middle East and back to —Iran.

And you forget Iran can take its current nuclear fuel from 60% upward and make warheads with it without a critical chain reaction device. “Dirty bombs” are a thing and cause enough damage.

That’s assuming Iran doesn’t have IR-6 centrifuges hidden somewhere with a secret stash of uranium hidden long ago. So yes rest assured, Iran has retaliation options.

Although there is very very limited scenarios Israel would ever use nuclear weapons on Iran. As much as people talk about it non chalantly even during the height of Cold War when Russian generals thought US was launching a nuclear strike (due to faulty radar equipment or a weather balloon test they weren’t notified about in advance) in that critical moment (of which there were a few instances) they didn’t order a retaliatory strike because they didn’t believe US could truly be first striking them.

Nuclear weapons are a bit useless for the real world battlefield as Putin has found out.

 

[jauk]

How so?

I refer you to the first line of my prior post: "I don't dispute Iran has the capacity to develop such weapons".

Incorrect again. I said CONSTRUCT. Anyway stop pulling on this irrelevant thread and diverting the conversation from current matters. Nuclear devices are not a subject to ponder on in the current situation in near or long term.

Do you want Iran to make announcement? Assad still has chemical warheads. It’s not a big deal.



Mossad knows Iran has it. Just like they know Assad has it. Assad sat on the largest arsenal for decades.



Iran cannot nuke Israel without killing Palestinians from nuclear fall out and depending on the winds the radioactive would blow over the Middle East and back to —Iran.

And you forget Iran can take its current nuclear fuel from 60% upward and make warheads with it without a critical chain reaction device. “Dirty bombs” are a thing and cause enough damage.

That’s assuming Iran doesn’t have IR-6 centrifuges hidden somewhere with a secret stash of uranium hidden long ago. So yes rest assured, Iran has retaliation options.

Although there is very very limited scenarios Israel would ever use nuclear weapons on Iran. As much as people talk about it non chalantly even during the height of Cold War when Russian generals thought US was launching a nuclear strike (due to faulty radar equipment or a weather balloon test they weren’t notified about in advance) in that critical moment (of which there were a few instances) they didn’t order a retaliatory strike because they didn’t believe US could truly be first striking them.

Nuclear weapons are a bit useless for the real world battlefield as Putin has found out.

Correct again!

 

[HGV]

Do you want Iran to make announcement? Assad still has chemical warheads. It’s not a big deal.

Mossad knows Iran has it. Just like they know Assad has it. Assad sat on the largest arsenal for decades.

Iran doesn't need to announce it, the world would know. It's difficult to hide these things from intelligence agencies (as Iran knows very well). There is no evidence of such warheads existing, but we do know that Khomeini expressly forbade these weapons. So unless you have evidence of a pivot away from this policy, I don't see any evidence to suggest Iran has chemical warhead BMs deployed.

And you forget Iran can take its current nuclear fuel from 60% upward and make warheads with it without a critical chain reaction device. “Dirty bombs” are a thing and cause enough damage.

Realistic estimates of the time Iran needs to rush to a nuclear capable BM are 6-18 months. A dirty bomb is an option but it is a vastly inferior option. I can perhaps see Iran resorting to this in extremis, so it's a fair point.

Although there is very very limited scenarios Israel would ever use nuclear weapons on Iran. As much as people talk about it non chalantly even during the height of Cold War when Russian generals thought US was launching a nuclear strike (due to faulty radar equipment or a weather balloon test they weren’t notified about in advance) in that critical moment (of which there were a few instances) they didn’t order a retaliatory strike because they didn’t believe US could truly be first striking them.

Nuclear weapons are a bit useless for the real world battlefield as Putin has found out.

If Russia was on the verge of falling, or if Israel's existence was threatened, the calculus would be different. We know the US was forced to resupply the IDF after early losses in the 1973 war after Israel effectively threatened the US that it would go nuclear.

I agree not even Israel would use nuclear weapons lightly, but this is all speculative.

Incorrect again. I said CONSTRUCT. Anyway stop pulling on this irrelevant thread and diverting the conversation from current matters. Nuclear devices are not a subject to ponder on in the current situation in near or long term.

We were talking about whether Iran has chem/bio warheads, not whether it can CONSTRUCT nuclear warheads.

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

There is no possibility of a military victory for Israel as for Palestine

they are getting close

 

[HGV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710989335808422074

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran doesn't need to announce it, the world would know. It's difficult to hide these things from intelligence agencies (as Iran knows very well). There is no evidence of such warheads existing, but we do know that Khomeini expressly forbade these weapons. So unless you have evidence of a pivot away from this policy, I don't see any evidence to suggest Iran has chemical warhead BMs deployed.

This is common knowledge, most Iranians know this. US Intelligence in 2019 in classified briefing to Congress again certified that Iran is not in compliance with CWC. It’s just not a big deal because it’s very easy to hide biological and chemical weapons programs since they have dual use.

During its participation in the OPCW, Iran has frequently asserted its commitment to the CWC. For example, in April 2003, the Iranian delegate to the OPCW acknowledged that Iran had developed "chemical capabilities" during the last phase of the Iran-Iraq war but claimed that Iran never used these weapons and dismantled them after the cease-fire. In addition, the delegate stated that Iran destroyed its chemical weapon facilities under the supervision of OPCW inspectors and received certification of destruction. He cited these actions as "clear proof of [Iran's] full commitment and compliance" to the CWC. [39] In October 2003, Iran reiterated that it was "fully committed to the implementation of the Convention and total elimination of all weapons of mass destruction" and had "submitted all required declarations."[40]

In 1997, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) publicly reported that Iran had manufactured and stockpiled blister, blood, and choking agents, and had bombs and artillery shells needed to deliver these agents.[1] Subsequent U.S. intelligence reports expanded on these findings, alleging the production and stockpiling of nerve agents and describing Iran's failure to declare its CW production facilities and past CW-related transfers.[2] In 2005, the United States judged Iran to be in violation of its CWC commitments.[3] This finding was softened in subsequent U.S. government reports and testimony, which cited an inability to certify Iran's compliance. Then, in 2018, the United States certified Iran in non-compliance with the CWC, a finding it reaffirmed in 2019.[4]

Information about Iran's foreign suppliers of CW precursors and expertise is derived largely from U.S. sanctions actions since the late 1990s. Entities in China, India, and Russia have been among Iran's primary suppliers.

In June 2002, the director of Israel's Mossad intelligence service was quoted as saying that Iran's adherence to the CWC was only "a cover for the construction of a dual-purpose civilian infrastructure which could be converted very speedily into production capabilities of large quantities of VX [gas]."[41]

 

[HGV]

This is common knowledge, most Iranians know this.

Most Iranians know what? That Iran has deployed BMs tipped with chem/bio warheads? Or that Khomeini forbade the use of such weapons against Saddam's Iraq and this policy has not changed?

US Intelligence in 2019 in classified briefing to Congress again certified that Iran is not in compliance with CWC. It’s just not a big deal because it’s very easy to hide biological and chemical weapons programs since they have dual use.

Useful excerpts, but they do not claim or suggest Iran has actually taken steps to deploy such weapons. I do not deny Iran's ability to do so on short notice, though, so the point is a fair one (with the slight remaining caveat of Iran's proven history of opposing the use of such weapons even when subject to attacks by the same).

 

[TheImmortal]

Most Iranians know what? That Iran has deployed BMs tipped with chem/bio warheads? Or that Khomeini forbade the use of such weapons against Saddam's Iraq and this policy has not changed?

Read the post again. It has all the answers you seek.

After that go use google and gain knowledge on your own time.

 

[HGV]

Patriot is active. Likely against rockets launched by Palestinian militants in south Lebanon. Must be a big one if they used Patriot instead of Iron Dome.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710993930454491544

After that go use google and gain knowledge on your own time.

I suggest you take your own advice.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710984680604905752

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710983949873209383

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710983321562341828

 

[HGV]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710993955653886251

a $4m missile used to intercept what was likely a small $20-50k UAV from Lebanon?

 

[TheImmortal]

Al Jazerra reporting that Israel has resumed shelling Lebanon border.

 

[Blue In Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1710993955653886251

a $4m missile used to intercept what was likely a small $20-50k UAV from Lebanon?

Waste of precious interceptors if that’s the case.

 

[jauk]

Waste of precious interceptors if that’s the case.

It’s called ‘floating a balloon’. Response is very telling (‘balloon shot down’).The owner of the UAV learned a lot!