Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

I agree with you..

I will also like to add regarding Russia's war against Ukraine it played out how i envisioned it would play out. When you factor in the conventional probability there was never gonna be a roll over whereas the majority of the people were thinking Russia is just gonna come in and roll over.

We have seen conflicts since the last 20yrs but they have all somehow turned into drawn out, cagey affiars and prolonged conflicts that turn into conflicts of attration it was never by chance that thing mostly turn that way.

When you factor in the population of Ukraine 45mio vs 146mio Russians and you factor in that Ukraine is at home you will find yourself in a dog-fight regardless of all the advantages. Not to forget Ukraine is handsomely armed but even if they were not armed as well as they are now they could have still made it into a dog-fight and the battle lines would have been the same..

Alot of people don't factor in today what actully happens when I throw my army against 45mio population that are heavily armed? and how far can I roll over them? There is mathematic probability in wars.

I see Russia probably taking Donbass and perhaps pushing little bit further east perhaps reaching closer to the river but other then that they will be forced to accept long term ceasefires and wait for 10-15 years before going for the 2nd round again.

Hence Russia could only achieve a total capture of Ukraine in the next 70-90 years across as many as 4 wars with 15-20 years pause gaps

I completely agree. Even if they managed to take Kiev in the first 3 days of the war, It wouldn't have ended the war, their were tens of thousands of troops deployed all over the country, with their line of communication in tact, and armed with expensive equipment. They can still operate from Lviv. If the UKR army collapsed, they'd still be dealing with an enormous 10 year insurgency but with equipment far better than Iraqi rebels had.

Blitz only worked in Iraq cause the land was purely flat and open desert, and Iraq had little weapons to defend themselves with. Really be oversight on Russia's part. Taking a country of 45 million is extremely difficult to managed, especially if even 30% of the country are motivated against you.

If Russia just focused on the Donbass from the start and expended there with all their firepower, they would have had much less casualties and equipment losses. As you say, they will have to bite piece by piece off over time. I think that is really the only way things can work this day an age. If Russia really suffered 20,000 casualties, I'd reckon most of it was suffered during the first few weeks of the war, where they really f-ed up. I doubt they are facing large casualties with this massive artillery advantage they have.

No longer you can just take a whole country over. Populations are far too large in every country now to seize all of it, you'd have to take a chunk out at a time and in size you can manage. A country like the UK who used to just walk into Egypt in 1950, can no longer enter a country of 102 million people.

 

[SalarHaqq]

1.71 don't add up with Iran population growth

It adds up neatly. As indicated earlier, there's a chronological gap between decline in population growth and decline of the fertility rate, the former comes first. But once fertility is down for some years in a row, it's de facto impossible to make it rise again.

I must add that only optimistic estimates put replacement rate at 2,1. Others put it at 2,3 in fact.

The situation is more than dire for Iran and there's no question about it. Nor about the absolute urgency for a wide scale natalist government policy.

---

By the way, the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), a highly specialized non-governmental organization and research center supplying relevant statistics, has corroborated the official evaluation by the Statistical Center of Iran.

Iran's fertility rate as of 1400 stood at 1,71, a genuine catastrophe. Disaster is knocking at Iran's door, unless a boost is given to child births right away (in a few years, the window will close definitively).

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economic growth/prosperity =/= higher birthrate

In fact there tends to be a correlation between economic prosperity / development on the one hand and fertility rate on the other, but in reverse order: greater development leads to lower fertility.

The above represents a basic finding in demographic studies.

The main cause behind the alarming demographic situation in Iran is the fact that people in Iran are enjoying elevated levels of development. Iran ranks among countries with high human development according to the United Nation's HDI (Human Development Index), and just a few positions away from the very high category.

For Iran it’s no exception and maybe more so due to brain drain and population leaving the country.

This not so much of a factor. For one, the more educated they are, the less children they tend to have. Then, Iran's emigration rate is relatively unimpressive in international comparison. In proportion to total population, more citizens have left countries such as south Korea (5,7 million emigrants for 52 million residents), France (3,5 million emigrants for 67 million residents), Turkey (6,5 million for 84-85 million residents) or Iceland (46500 for 366000 residents) than from Iran.

 

[SalarHaqq]

So if we are believe the Americans then several Russian delegations visited Iran to for an up close display for the Shahed 191 and Shahed 129

Iran debunked this bit of US propaganda: the Russian delegation at the Kashan airfield was there in the framework of an army competition.

Source : https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1404579/

 

[WudangMaster]

Iran debunked this bit of US propaganda: the Russian delegation at the Kashan airfield was there in the framework of an army competition.

Source : https://www.mashreghnews.ir/news/1404579/

Indeed, Mr. Azarmehr has stated it is unlikely that Iran will part with the more advanced drones, unless Russia is willing to be equally nice in terms of other tech. Anyway, the suicide drones and the mohajer/ababil types and karrars are what Russia needs more than anything right now.

On a separate note, if the post limit is still in effect, I'll update on my profile otherwise I'll start posting more again.

Interesting these two have aligned; I very much like TYT on their positions regarding domestic US politics and sometimes on foreign politics and nearly agree completely with Dana on Iran related matters and sometimes on his takes on other subjects.

 

[QWECXZ]

Turkey's foreign policies be like

 

[WudangMaster]

Which post limit?

It was a system glitch last weekend affecting me and Drmeson and Jauk and few others that seems to be fixed now.

 

[dBSPL]

Azerbaijan carrying out relatively large scale attacks on Armenia again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554883027842605057

No, there is no military operation against Armenia. The fact that Iranians are writing such messages shows both their level of awareness about the issue and the fact that they are under the manipulation of which influence groups.

This so called NK defense army is not a legitimate force that can legally be present on de jure Azerbaijani soil. Additionally none of the trilateral agreement signees do not recognize NKR or Artsakh as a legal body. Thus any Armenian wearing a uniform is either a member of Armenian forces, which shouldn't be present in NK, or a rogue element, which is also illegal.

The said military operation takes place within the territory of Azerbaijan. There isnt any military operation against the territory of Armenia.

Armenia's efforts to establish a military element on the territory of Azerbaijan through illegal terrorist organizations will not be allowed. If Armenia abides by the agreements it has signed, there will be no tension in the region.

 

[sha ah]

Haven't seen Iranian drone do that yet...

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Russians can build decent models of drones but the recent western sanctions will take some time to adapt to. Iran has already adapted and the fact that Iran has gotten its hands on the most advanced UAVS in the world, even ones that the US will not export to Israel, have propelled Iran's UAV industry forward by leaps and bounds. It is what it is.

Not denying that the Iranians could potentially be ahead of the Russians in this field but I haven't seen that on display yet. Yes the Europeans have drones and so do the Americans. The American drones have been on the battlefield and have done somewhat decently compared to the Russian drones they achieved somewhat results but not the greatest.

Even Pakistan has multiple self-made drones but they are still unproven on real battleground. There is nothing negative in having the weapons but still not battle proven.

Hence why I say if Iran has superior drones to the Russian it is something we haven't seen yet and it could be a possibility not denying it

Russia to launch satellite on behalf of Iran with unprecedented spying capabilities

***

www.haaretz.com

Report: Russia to Launch Satellite on Behalf of Iran With Unprecedented Spying Capabilities​

Moscow will launch the Kanopus-V satellite system, a Russian-made satellite allowing for near-uninterrupted monitoring of large swaths of land, including sites in Israel and the Gulf, Western officials told the Washington Post

 

[jauk]

Not denying that the Iranians could potentially be ahead of the Russians in this field but I haven't seen that on display yet. Yes the Europeans have drones and so do the Americans. The American drones have been on the battlefield and have done somewhat decently compared to the Russian drones they achieved somewhat results but not the greatest.

Even Pakistan has multiple self-made drones but they are still unproven on real battleground. There is nothing negative in having the weapons but still not battle proven.

Hence why I say if Iran has superior drones to the Russian it is something we haven't seen yet and it could be a possibility not denying it

Your posts on this subject are contradictory and without purpose. If you don't know then let's not post negatively. Conjecture is great but must be on SOME basis of reason rather than 'I don't know this or that'.

BTW, your banner statement 'Iran doesn't have battle proven drones' got you in immediate trouble since it is manifestly not true. Iranian systems engage with the US on an hourly basis and have been in combat in the Imposed War ('80s !!), Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Saudi, and many more. Not to mention the Russians, Ethiopians, and Tajiks have asked for many of these 'unproven' systems. See?

So it doesn't matter if you attempted to correct yourself in some obscure corner of your post or some random follow up post.

 

[Battlion25]

Your posts on this subject are contradictory and without purpose. If you don't know then let's not post negatively. Conjecture is great but must be on SSOME basis rather than 'I don't know this or that'. BTW, your banner statement 'Iran doesn't have battle proven drones' got you in immediate trouble since it not true. It doesn't matter if you corrected it in some obscure corner f your post or some random follow up post.

I was not really corrected tho because I didn't say anything out of line to begin with.. I was speaking about battle proven drones and you must understand first the definition.. I was not talking about I hit a car or house with drone but I altered a battlefield kind of drone on the conventional level.. Russia is currently engaged in conventional war across the Eastern Ukraine.. Without obviously denying that Iran may not or may have better drones then the Russians but it is something that has not been displayed or seen by the weapon enthusiasts like me all tho I am aware of all the types of drones but some have not been displayed or have seen in performance

 

[jauk]

I was not really corrected tho because I didn't say anything out of line to begin with.. I was speaking about battle proven drones and you must understand first the definition.. I was not talking about I hit a car or house with drone but I altered a battlefield kind of drone on the conventional level.. Russia is currently engaged in conventional war across the Eastern Ukraine.. Without obviously denying that Iran may not or may have better drones then the Russians but it is something that has not been displayed or seen by the weapon enthusiasts like me all tho I am aware of all the types of drones but some have not been displayed or have seen in performance

Uh huh

 

[_Nabil_]

Sardar Azmoun; ‘Iranian Messi’

TEHRAN, Aug. 04 (MNA) – Iran national football team forward Sardar Azmoun has been dubbed the "Iranian Lionel Messi". The striker is also considered the most decorated Iranian player in European leagues.

en.mehrnews.com

Is Azmoun really good as described in the article?

 

[Stryker1982]

Sardar Azmoun; ‘Iranian Messi’

TEHRAN, Aug. 04 (MNA) – Iran national football team forward Sardar Azmoun has been dubbed the "Iranian Lionel Messi". The striker is also considered the most decorated Iranian player in European leagues.

en.mehrnews.com

Is Azmoun really good as described in the article?

Good, but not that good.

 

[sha ah]

The Russians have have decent models of drones but again when have they done this ?

or this in a real world enviroment. Keep in mind the site was protected by 6 PATRIOT SAM batteries, some the latest variant, the PAC-3. And these aren't the best drones in Iran's arsenal.

Now, it takes time to adapt to western sanctions. Iran's military industrial complex has adapted and is relatively sanctions proof. For the Russians it will take time to adapt. That is time that they don't have in a war that might last only another 4-6 months.

I was not really corrected tho because I didn't say anything out of line to begin with.. I was speaking about battle proven drones and you must understand first the definition.. I was not talking about I hit a car or house with drone but I altered a battlefield kind of drone on the conventional level.. Russia is currently engaged in conventional war across the Eastern Ukraine.. Without obviously denying that Iran may not or may have better drones then the Russians but it is something that has not been displayed or seen by the weapon enthusiasts like me all tho I am aware of all the types of drones but some have not been displayed or have seen in performance

 

[sha ah]