Iranian Chill Thread

[Shams313]

make missiles like cookies, more TBM,HBM, ATGM, LRCM.. Bake like cookies, deliver to yemen and test them from there.

and i wish hamas get more tactical heavy weapon

 

[Stryker1982]

and i wish hamas get more tactical heavy weapon

They need Falaq heavy siege rockets.

Not only are they very destructive, but mass producible. Hezbolalh has them.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720156584918061149

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720154802301042739

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720146419300888674

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720149468811542823

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720160305118953941

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720163064387932503

 

[jauk]

The question is does this government, which is known to be risk averse and values survival of the Islamic Republic, take a risk of escalating the war to such a point?

To me, everything the last 15 years+ shows Iran does not want to initiate a direct conflict. Very pragmatic. Even the Solemani assassination it was forced into the missile attack to not only save face, but show the US (and Israel) they cannot start directly assassinating key Iranian officials with no repercussion. Indirectly was still permitted as we saw with the Fakhrizadeh assassination.

The entire axis of resistance was built not to free Jerusalem, but to safeguard Iran by keeping the war away from its borders and building a coalition to protect against US aggression in Middle East. It was to overcome the qualitative military edge that Israel + US + Arab alliance has over it by establishing a major deterrence effort without nuclear weapons - a conventional MAD doctrine so to speak.

Thus, while some in the government of Iran are likely advocating for war with Israel, I don’t believe the vast majority of factions will support this. Without a majority or a consensus view, I don’t see how the SNSC or Rahbar would approve either.

Iran’s strategy has always been asymmetric. Never tit for tat. Always effective. Oct 7 is one.

Expect the same here.

 

[925boy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719869677881454778

This is the 1st war in Israel's modern history that it has to deal with depleting drone inventory, Hezbollah has shot out a few drones, and not the small or micro ones either, so Israel has to contend with losing drones and losing reconnaissance and strike capabilities while actively fighting Hezbollah.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720146974794469511

Hezbollah really hates radio towers

Iran’s strategy has always been asymmetric. Never tit for tat. Always effective. Oct 7 is one.

Expect the same here.

I wouldn’t call this tit for tat, this would be too settle the Jerusalem/Israeli manner once in for all.

The plus side is if the entire axis joins and a major conflict breaks out, their is a good chance that it will finally force the world powers to accept a two state solution in exchange for a ceasefire or risk the war becoming much more kinetic.

That is the calculus right now going thru the decision making process in Tehran. Can they achieve a favorable outcome by joining the war?

An Israel that has eliminated Hamas or degraded it back to 1990’s level sleeper cell capability will turn its eyes more on Iran’s Syria footprint. Strikes there will continue. While I doubt they will immediately go directly after Hezbollah like some have alluded, it seems more likely the west’s attention would now be on focused “eliminating” Hezbollah. Remember 2010 CIA backed Syrian revolution was always the first step In decapitation of the axis allies. US hasn’t given up on this notion, merely decided to play a longer game.

At the current time, it appears the effort is to turn Lebanese society against Hezbollah by allowing the economic depression in the country to continue to erode away the society.

 

[Mehdipersian]

Now Iraq vs Israhell

The Islamic Resistance of Iraq announced that they targeted the vital target of the Zionist regime on the shores of the Dead Sea.

 

[Shams313]

Hamas getting encircled, we need to move boyez....or they will be in trouble.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720163790363181455

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720166226616312002

is this true?

 

[tsunset]

Hamas getting encircled, we need to move boyez....or they will be in trouble.

Calm down, this is an Israeli channel, no wonder Israel is doing great on the ground according to them

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720179849300423054

 

[HGV]

Iraqi Resistance shows Iranian Qods/Paveh LACM for first time, firing it at Israeli occupied West Bank

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720225228289085885

I wonder if any of these made their way to Hezbollah or Syria, and if Syria/Iraq have ballistic missiles

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720146974794469511

Hezbollah really hates radio towers



I wouldn’t call this tit for tat, this would be too settle the Jerusalem/Israeli manner once in for all.

The plus side is if the entire axis joins and a major conflict breaks out, their is a good chance that it will finally force the world powers to accept a two state solution in exchange for a ceasefire or risk the war becoming much more kinetic.

That is the calculus right now going thru the decision making process in Tehran. Can they achieve a favorable outcome by joining the war?

An Israel that has eliminated Hamas or degraded it back to 1990’s level sleeper cell capability will turn its eyes more on Iran’s Syria footprint. Strikes there will continue. While I doubt they will immediately go directly after Hezbollah like some have alluded, it seems more likely the west’s attention would now be on focused “eliminating” Hezbollah. Remember 2010 CIA backed Syrian revolution was always the first step In decapitation of the axis allies. US hasn’t given up on this notion, merely decided to play a longer game.

At the current time, it appears the effort is to turn Lebanese society against Hezbollah by allowing the economic depression in the country to continue to erode away the society.

Are you discounting the massive blow Zionia received just a few days ago? You seem to not build that at all in your calculations. As of today Zionia has done nothing ZERO CIPHER ZILCH to counter that. Everything else is conjecture. The Resistance wins.

As for Iran and The Resistance, the escalation ladder is not even close to being met for any of them to take action. The enemy is embroiled in a FULL SCALE MOBILIZATION against a mere NEIGHBORHOOD. The Resistance wins.

I’m flabbergasted by views that don’t see this as clear as day. There seems to be confusion between sound military and strategic execution and the terrible injustices that occur in war. They coexist but not the same.

If anyone here believes for a single second Iran hasn’t gamed this very scenario and already doesn’t have a plan in place well they’re crazy. The Resistance wins.

Also, if anyone believes screams of action are not taking place in lower Iranian command and political echelons—it’s their job—they’re crazy too. Iranian strategists and decision makers are actively keeping everyone’s eyes in the ball and at bay. It’s their job. The Resistance wins.

SMH