Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

I’m trying to understand what the purpose of this plan was. It surely couldn’t have been “let’s kill a few thousand Israelis and then see what happens”. Hamas must have known an invasion was in the cards. Maybe they never thought they’d be as successful and were forced to escalate as Israel went bezerk. Much like how Nasrallah never thought the 06 border incident would lead to war.

The scale and manner of the invasion was of sort to cause the maximum possible provocation. I can't imagine they don't know what the consequences were going to be. The went into practically every settler town in the south and nuked them. Also launched 1000s of rockets in the first day. They initiated full scale war from the get go. Compared to a border raid this is nothing. I can see why Nasrallah didn't think it would lead to war but this? 100% provoked.

I’d like to give Hamas the benefit of the doubt here. Which means they either expected Arabs and/or Iran to join in some fashion.

These guys are always in contact with each other, their may be a grander plan ongoing. I find it hard to believe IRGC top level was completely surprised, considering this action can create a domino effect that will directly impact Iran. I'm sure the higher level Quds force guys knew.

Regarding ground invasion: There is no conceivable universe where 20,000 Palestinian miltants (optimistic figure) can stand against 150,000+ Israeli’s with constant drone/air power/close air support overhead alongside mechanized armour in a tight crammed corridor like North Gaza.

Smartly Israel is cutting Gaza in to 2-3 pieces. Rather than allow the enemy to stretch the battlefield and make it easier to blend inside a larger territory they have narrowed it down into battle of North Gaza. Once that’s successful they will move south until they are at the border with Egypt.

This is also how Iran and Syrian forces took back major enclaves. Piece by Piece.

Apparently 40,000 but I am not sure how many are combat capable/ready.

Hamas as good tools to combat them including Iranian tandem RPG-7 warheads (clearly Iran prepared them for ground fighting, the IDF also said Iran gave them some sort of thermobaric handheld weapon that was used to destroy/damage vehicles and structures in the initial attack),

but they are few in number, lack resupply, movement is dangerous. IDF won't be able to use heavy weaponry properly in Urban area.

In basically every possible way, Hamas will lose this confrontation so as long as the Government in Israel has the willpower to continue the fighting.

In terms of supplies, they are superior
airspace, they are superior
logistic, they are superior
numbers, they are superior
attrition warfare, they are superior
Health of the soldier, they are superior (No food or water for Gaza)

If Israel had a Khomeini type figure with an Iron will, they will win because attrition is on their side. If they have cowardly leaders like many western nations, they cannot fight for too long before pressure builds up. Think about it for those who doubt, if Israel wanted to fight in Gaza for 1 year max or less if they can win sooner, could anyone survive that long without re-supply?

So unless their is some international brokered ceasefire to save them, the axis would have to intervene.

 

[Flotilla]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713276775436800227

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713284905558221089

They are blinding short range radars (counter battery ones?) and TV/IR surveillance sites... exactly for what?. Seems they want to stard a bigger operation.

 

[SalarHaqq]

These two viewpoints clash with one another.

One says the loss of Hamas and Gaza will be a strategic defeat, the other says it’s not a big deal and Iran will support what will come next (presumably Palestinians throwing rocks again).

I'm saying first and foremost zionists are unlikely to wipe Hamas out. Such a hypothesis shouldn't be presented as an established outcome because nothing could be less certain.

Israel sacrifices 5K to capture Gaza? You ask Bibi he will take that every day of the week. If Israel captures Gaza and Hamas is decapitated or shell of its former self gone into hiding, than Israel will be the victor. Plain and simple.

Yes the resistance “slapped” Israel humiliating fashion, but then it lost a limb. Not much bragging rights there if that happens

Netanyahu's desire is one thing, political feasibility a wholly different affair. As it stands Tel Aviv cannot politically afford 5000 additional military casualties, it would be extremely far fetched to expect otherwise.

Not to mention such a high toll against a rudimentary force will definitely seal the fate of the zionist regime's image of untouchability. The psychological war on this front will be lost for generations to come, a boon to the Palestinian Resistance.

Repercussions will manifest themselves way beyond the Resistance's boosted morale, Tel Aviv will be seen in a significantly different light by third parties in the geopolitical and diplomatic spheres as well.

---

They might change their minds or not. They will come up with some excuse if needed.

If their objective is effectively what the New York Times reported, then barring an unexpectedly low cost ground campaign they won't be revising their ambitions upwards.

Say they enter Gaza, and after 3 months they take the whole strip. That's the opposite image of fragility. It means if provoked they will annihilate their enemy.

Take Gaza, but to what end? At this point anything short of definitive suppression of Palestinian Resistance activities will amount to strategic failure for the zionists.

Fragility comes through either backing out and get cold feet, or they take a military defeat here against the axis.

Their utter failure at averting the Palestinian offensive offers in and by itself an irrevocable demonstration of the zionist entity's fragility at the military level no less, in stark contrast to the myth they've been cultivating for over 70 years. It will resonate and inspire Resistance fighters for many decades to come.

At the foundation of every victory lies steadfastness in the battle of wills, what the Palestinians achieved thus far is therefore priceless. Zionist planners certainly understand this.

 

[TheImmortal]

The Secrets Hamas Knew About Israel’s Military

ALONG THE ISRAEL-GAZA BORDER — The 10 gunmen from Gaza knew exactly how to find the Israeli intelligence hub — and how to get inside. After crossing into Israel, they headed east on five motorcycles, two gunmen on each vehicle, shooting at passing civilian cars as they pressed forward. Ten miles...

www.yahoo.com

I suggest everyone read this. It gives vital clues into how detailed this assault was. Also points to infiltration of Israeli assets either thru hacking or spies.

It reminds me of a famous quote by Solemani

 

[SalarHaqq]

These guys are always in contact with each other, their may be a grander plan ongoing. I find it hard to believe IRGC top level was completely surprised, considering this action can create a domino effect that will directly impact Iran. I'm sure the higher level Quds force guys knew.

Amateurish miscalculation of such a magnitude is not plausible. The Resistance have strategic and tactical awareness.

but they are few in number,

But, did you forget how few the south Lebanese and HezbAllah are / were, who in 2006 inflicted defeat upon the zionist military?

Also defenders enjoy a natural advantage when it comes to the efficiency of numbers.

In basically every possible way, Hamas will lose this confrontation so as long as the Government in Israel has the willpower to continue the fighting.

Fighting implies casualties, expenditures (especially for a hi-tech army) and international pressure given the civilian toll the zionists are and will be causing. Tel Aviv's tolerance for either of these is limited.

In terms of supplies, they are superior
airspace, they are superior
logistic, they are superior
numbers, they are superior
attrition warfare, they are superior
Health of the soldier, they are superior (No food or water for Gaza)

Social-political affordability of casualties within their ranks, they are inferior.
Susceptibility to international pressure, they are inferior.
Morale wise, they are inferior.
Fighting spirit wise, they are inferior due to hailing from an affluent post-modern society.
Unity wise, they are inferior considering how fractured and polarized the Isra"el"i political scene has been of late.

These are key criteria as well.

If Israel had a Khomeini type figure with an Iron will, they will win because attrition is on their side. If they have cowardly leaders like many western nations, they cannot fight for too long before pressure builds up. Think about it for those who doubt, if Israel wanted to fight in Gaza for 1 year max or less if they can win sooner, could anyone survive that long without re-supply?

It isn't merely a question of leadership. It's also that wealthy, developed societies in this day and age and given prevailing cultural norms, are structurally incapable of the sort of sacrifice alluded to above.

So unless their is some international brokered ceasefire to save them, the axis would have to intervene.

Although intervention by other Resistance forces is a distinct possibility not to be dismissed, personally I'm leaning towards the supposition that it won't be necessary.

 

[Cthulhu]

Well people in Israel belive Netanyahu's government is to blame for Hamas's attack. BiBi is a dead man walking now, So is the Israeli military leadership, Directors of Mossad, Aman, and Shin Bet, And so is the military leadership of Hamas and Hamas fighters, and let's be real the Gazans too, They are dead men walking. The Israeli leadership will go for something that would cost them their political career in normal circumstances, like annexation of Gaza, the Nakba 2.0 if you will, And the Hamas fighters will defend at all costs since they know the Israelis will be comming for the kill, So now all the gloves are off, On both sides.

So now what remains is for the Hamas to inflict as much casualties as they can, At all costs, Before the inevitable sets in.

 

[Flotilla]

Well people in Israel belive Netanyahu's government is to blame for Hamas's attack. BiBi is a dead man walking now, So is the Israeli military leadership, Directors of Mossad, Aman, and Shin Bet, And so is the military leadership of Hamas and Hamas fighters, and let's be real the Gazans too, They are dead men walking. The Israeli leadership will go for something that would cost them their political career in normal circumstances, like annexation of Gaza, the Nakba 2.0 if you will, And the Hamas fighters will defend at all costs since they know the Israelis will be comming for the kill, So now all the gloves are off, On both sides.

So now what remains is for the Hamas to inflict as much casualties as they can, At all costs, Before the inevitable sets in.

Anyway the new prime minister will be worse.

They are nazis. They (far right militants) killed Issac Rabin, after him when Madrid agreements, they killed Yassir Arafat, after it they made tens of illegal settlements in the other part of Palestine (West Bank) which was, curiously pacified, they gave weapons to settlers and after some years, they made special operations with even 1.500 killed in action (mostly civilians).
Even europeans can see that. But so sorry, US pressure and Mass media are pressuring the public oppinion (Macron even banned pro-palestinian protests).
Unfortunately whatever they choose, will be far worse.

 

[jauk]

Our conversion was about what would happen if the occupation of Gaza was successful and the aftermath of what would come next. Assumedly, if Gaza was occupied and the residents expelled. Hence my point was that their would be intervention because the cost of not doing so would be very high.

Let’s discuss the bright side too dark hat. Critical thinking plays one side against the other. Often your ugly path scenarios are not only boring but not cognizant of reality and big think.

 

[jauk]

Again, IMO, all possible scenarios must be based on these indisputable premises. Outside these fundamentals the discussions are no more than گوز شتر:

- Iran and The Resistance were aware of this action. AT THE VERY LEAST
- This action has been a deadly and IRRECOVERABLE blow to Zionia.
- many many POWs
- Hamas has rendered Gaza a deadly trap. Entry is enormously costly
- Yahoo is in deep trouble at national level
- Yahoo has been in trouble with the US for quite a while.
- international steam against Zionia will gradually amplify
- Iran and The Resistance will posture politically and militarily as the situation evolves. They will not sit still.

 

[WudangMaster]

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran’s FM really needs to stop throwing out so many warnings and vague red lines. Boxing Iran into some weird corner.

 

[tsunset]

The site looks completely brutalized

 

[tsunset]

Hezbollah planted a red flag at the borders, one Merkava tank destroyed, one zionist soldier died, second consecutive operation of Hezbollah in retaliation from Israeli attacks,
Israeli media reports this as the fifth Israeli killed within a week in operations conducted by Hezbollah.

On Saturday, Hezbollah declared the targeting of five Israeli occupation military sites in the occupied Lebanese Shebaa Farms, with precise impacts recorded.

Hezbollah Signals Vengeance by Hoisting Red Flag (+Video) - World news - Tasnim News Agency

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah unfurled a red flag at the Al-Rahib military base, in response to recent confrontations and the bombardment of Gaza by the Israeli regime.

www.tasnimnews.com

 

[Blue In Green]

Iran’s FM really needs to stop throwing out so many warnings and vague red lines. Boxing Iran into some weird corner.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713630859176325128

Updates

 

[Cthulhu]

I’m trying to understand what the purpose of this plan was. It surely couldn’t have been “let’s kill a few thousand Israelis and then see what happens”. Hamas must have known an invasion was in the cards. Maybe they never thought they’d be as successful and were forced to escalate as Israel went bezerk. Much like how Nasrallah never thought the 06 border incident would lead to war.

Watch this video, Explains the purpose of this attack very nicely.