Iranian Chill Thread

[sepasgozar]

I pray for peace, but when fight, must win!
"
Iran: As soon as Israel moves ground into Gaza, we will move militarily.

"

https://x.com/Russianowarabic/status/1713292093932626016?s=20

 

[Cthulhu]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713263833026797968

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713270559235019129

 

[jauk]

The reality is we have Palestinians in Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. Their response has been muted to say the least.

Then there is the Arabs, outside of some carefully political crafted statements are just filler. Saudi Arabia and Iraq could have easily said they would stop selling oil to western countries if Israel invades Gaza Strip until they stop. Qatar could have said they would stop supply of natural gas to Europe for not stopping Israeli aggression.

They have done nothing. They took more actions against Assad then they ever did against Israel.

One wonders what would have happened if Saddam was still alive. He was the only in Arab world who had balls to attack Israel since 1973. The current Arab leaders are pacifist and more worried about Iran’s expansion than some Arabs getting genocide. I mean Saudi Arabia killed tens of thousands of people in Yemen with a blink of an eye.

This thinking that Arabs care about Arabs is not rooted in reality at the leadership level. Arabs are tribal and never been a unified force. Never will be. It’s like saying Africa being a unified force, never gonna happen. Tribal countries rarely reunite with other countries. Arab nationalism is also dead. Last time it existed was in Egypt in the 60’s - 70’s

Europeans are the most tribal of all. You can hear it in their music, their soccer chants, and see it in their internecine wars (even today). Frankly I could only think of the Iranians and the Chinese who overcome tribalism and expanded.

 

[jauk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713133478923911636

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713276775436800227

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713284905558221089

 

[Stryker1982]

Not really a security issue as Gaza was never gonna be a major deterrence.

Mostly an image/credibility issue when you back yourself into a corner by predicting the collapse of Israel over and over making the same statements over and over by IRGC/Senior Officials and SL himself. Then in the end they annex Gaza. Not a good look.

It’s almost equivalent of Iran normalizing relations with Israel after decades of claiming it will collapse.

It's not about how much deterrence factor Gaza strip is. It's about the fact that Israel just decapitated one of your allies (even if it's rocky sometimes) and you were helpless to do anything. You have to figure in the psychological factor among member of the resistance. The magnitude of the word "strategic defeat" would be justified to use here if that were to happen. Losing Gaza is not a tactical loss that can be recovered. That's why it's a strategic defeat which changes equations. Can't let it happen, and I sincerily think if they go on the ground, the great war will ramp up to full speed.

How do you see the west bank being in total zionist control either before or after the genocide?

As Immortal said, they will ride off this incident to conduct mass raids in Jenin and surrounding west bank settlement under the pretext of security. They will tell the Jordanians they can no longer have Palestinians in the west bank due to security issues and shootings, and they will evict them all out with the army and "raids". US will pressure Jordan to take the refugees.

Keep in mind the Zionists strongly want the west bank fully annexed. That's why they are settling there.

 

[jauk]

Iran has known all along of Hamas’ action. Given that, everything is built in. Leave it to the regular crew to paint a dark light on the greatest victory of our time.

I’m confident all will end well. Barring the thousands of Gazans who’ve been lost. A heavy price will be paid for their lives as well.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Leave it to the regular crew to paint a dark light on the greatest victory of our time.

When sweeping speculation is engaged in, customary grammatical and lexical precautions do not always seem to be taken. It reads as if we're dealing with obligatory future developments rather than hypotheses.

In one instance, the inadequacy is in a verb's tense.

It's about the fact that Israel just decapitated one of your allies

When did that happen?

 

[Stryker1982]

When did that happen?

Our conversion was about what would happen if the occupation of Gaza was successful and the aftermath of what would come next. Assumedly, if Gaza was occupied and the residents expelled. Hence my point was that their would be intervention because the cost of not doing so would be very high.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Our conversion was about what would happen if the occupation of Gaza was successful and the aftermath of what would come next. Assumedly, if Gaza was occupied and the residents expelled. Hence my point was that their would be intervention because the cost of not doing so would be very high.

I see. Now, the Palestinian people will keep resisting occupation through successor organizations if Hamas is eliminated and Iran will keep offering them support, but this isn't the most likely prospect to boot.

According to the recent New York Times article on Tel Aviv's plans for a ground operation, the objective they set is to eliminate Hamas' leadership. Fully eradicating the movement would suppose a very sustained action with lots of casualties. Re-occupying Gaza is also unlikely to be in the cards. Meanwhile the impact of the Palestinian foray won't be erased by upcoming zionist operations. Tel Aviv's fragility has been exposed lastingly.

So I wouldn't worry too much.

 

[TheImmortal]

It's not about how much deterrence factor Gaza strip is. It's about the fact that Israel just decapitated one of your allies (even if it's rocky sometimes) and you were helpless to do anything. You have to figure in the psychological factor among member of the resistance. The magnitude of the word "strategic defeat" would be justified to use here if that were to happen. Losing Gaza is not a tactical loss that can be recovered. That's why it's a strategic defeat which changes equations. Can't let it happen, and I sincerily think if they go on the ground, the great war will ramp up to full speed.


As Immortal said, they will ride off this incident to conduct mass raids in Jenin and surrounding west bank settlement under the pretext of security. They will tell the Jordanians they can no longer have Palestinians in the west bank due to security issues and shootings, and they will evict them all out with the army and "raids". US will pressure Jordan to take the refugees.

Keep in mind the Zionists strongly want the west bank fully annexed. That's why they are settling there.

I see. Now, the Palestinian people will keep resisting occupation through successor organizations if Hamas is eliminated and Iran will keep offering them support, but this isn't the most likely prospect to boot.

These two viewpoints clash with one another.

One says the loss of Hamas and Gaza will be a strategic defeat, the other says it’s not a big deal and Iran will support what will come next (presumably Palestinians throwing rocks again).


Israel sacrifices 5K to capture Gaza? You ask Bibi he will take that every day of the week. If Israel captures Gaza and Hamas is decapitated or shell of its former self gone into hiding, than Israel will be the victor. Plain and simple.

Yes the resistance “slapped” Israel humiliating fashion, but then it lost a limb. Not much bragging rights there if that happens

 

[Stryker1982]

Israel sacrifices 5K to capture Gaza? You ask Bibi he will take that every day of the week. If Israel captures Gaza and Hamas is decapitated or shell of its former self gone into hiding, than Israel will be the victor. Plain and simple.

Take a 10k losses in exchange for eliminating Hamas + PIJ, and displacing 2 million people, distributing the refugees to countries around the world. Destruction of your enemy in your south forever.....easy decision to make. They just never had the political capital to do it, now they do, and all it takes now is willpower.

If they don't displace every soul there, Occupation means they also get to police the Egyptian border i.e. good luck getting anything good through to create armed resistance, It will be like the west bank which is really nothing more than a pesky problem to them, than a genuine threat.

 

[Stryker1982]

I see. Now, the Palestinian people will keep resisting occupation through successor organizations if Hamas is eliminated and Iran will keep offering them support, but this isn't the most likely prospect to boot.

According to the recent New York Times article on Tel Aviv's plans for a ground operation, the objective they set is to eliminate Hamas' leadership. Fully eradicating the movement would suppose a very sustained action with lots of casualties. Re-occupying Gaza is also unlikely to be in the cards. Meanwhile the impact of the Palestinian foray won't be erased by upcoming zionist operations. Tel Aviv's fragility has been exposed lastingly.

So I wouldn't worry too much.

They might change their minds or not. They will come up with some excuse if needed.

Tel Aviv's fragility has been exposed lastingly.

Say they enter Gaza, and after 3 months they take the whole strip. That's the opposite image of fragility. It means if provoked they will annihilate their enemy.

Fragility comes through either backing out and get cold feet, or they take a military defeat here against the axis.

 

[TheImmortal]

Take a 10k losses in exchange for eliminating Hamas + PIJ, and displacing 2 million people, distributing the refugees to countries around the world. Destruction of your enemy in your south forever.....easy decision to make. They just never had the political capital to do it, now they do, and all it takes now is willpower.

If they don't displace every soul there, Occupation means they also get to police the Egyptian border i.e. good luck getting anything good through to create armed resistance, It will be like the west bank which is really nothing more than a pesky problem to them, than a genuine threat.

I’m trying to understand what the purpose of this plan was. It surely couldn’t have been “let’s kill a few thousand Israelis and then see what happens”. Hamas must have known an invasion was in the cards. Maybe they never thought they’d be as successful and were forced to escalate as Israel went bezerk. Much like how Nasrallah never thought the 06 border incident would lead to war.

I’d like to give Hamas the benefit of the doubt here. Which means they either expected Arabs and/or Iran to join in some fashion.

Regarding ground invasion: There is no conceivable universe where 20,000 Palestinian miltants (optimistic figure) can stand against 150,000+ Israeli’s with constant drone/air power/close air support overhead alongside mechanized armour in a tight crammed corridor like North Gaza.

Smartly Israel is cutting Gaza in to 2-3 pieces. Rather than allow the enemy to stretch the battlefield and make it easier to blend inside a larger territory they have narrowed it down into battle of North Gaza. Once that’s successful they will move south until they are at the border with Egypt.

This is also how Iran and Syrian forces took back major enclaves. Piece by Piece.

 

[TheImmortal]

Bro we been attempting to move strategic weapons for last 15 years according to Israel.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1713424262139154685

Well looks like the ground invasion has been delayed till next week due to IDF cannot get wet in the rain and fight without $3B worth of fighter jets in the air over them to help from shitting their pants.